Close Kyrgyz-Turkish Ties Stall and Sputter

December 28, 2012 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IDN

By Bernhard Schell

IDN-InDepth NewsAnalysis

BISHKEK (IDN) – Kyrgyz President Almazbek Sharshenovich Atambayev and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an are leaving no stone unturned to intensify and deepen cultural, political, economic and military relations between the two countries based on vision of a Turkic peoples’ identity. But both at home and abroad they do not always come across undiluted approval.

"There is quite a cautious and negative attitude towards the Turkish presence and influence in Kyrgyz society," says Valentin Bogatyriev, co-author of a new study published by the German Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) close to the Social Democratic Party. He refers to a recent sociological survey which finds that Turkey comes last among the countries cooperation with which is considered important for the national interests of Kyrgyzstan.

Turkey was the very first country to recognize its independence in 1991. More than 100 agreements and cooperation protocols including communication and military issues have been signed over the last two decades. The official dialogue between top political leaders of both countries is vivid. Turkish Airlines are providing a very important gateway to the world for numerous destinations.

Besides, as Katja Meyer, Resident Director of FES in Kyrgyzstan points out, Turkey’s secular democracy within a predominantly Muslim population is "an interesting model" for many people in the modern Kyrgyz state. Both languages have the same Turkic origin. Turkey itself demonstrates a strong interest of reviving and revitalizing the ties between Turkic nations and cultures. In 2012, Kyrgyzstan took over the chairmanship of the Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic nations.

But despite the breadth of its activities, says Bogatyriev, Turkey has had "no significant impact on Kyrgyzstan’s economic development" and there is no strengthening of its political influence due to it in recent years. In fact, the presence of Turkish capital and business in Kyrgyzstan has a mixed public and political reception in the country. "Nationalist groups and political parties claim that Turks, who have obtained the opportunity to freely conduct their business in Kyrgyzstan, are guilty of misbehaviour: they humiliate Kyrgyz people, look down on them and deceive them," states Bogatyriev.

This section of the public believes that as Prime Minister (from December 17, 2010 to December 1, 2011, and earlier from March 29, 2007 until November 28, 2007) President Atambaev "strengthened relations with Turkey and opened wider the gate of Kyrgyzstan for Turkish entrepreneurs willing to do business in the country, but that Turkish ‘entrepreneurs’ have exploited this not only to carry out economic activities, but also to spread their influence – that some people see as a policy of Pan-Turkism".

Bogatyriev adds: Atambaev is interested in boosting ties with Turkey because of his good relations with Turkish leaders, "and his own personal ties, business and assets in the Republic of Turkey". But these preferences are viewed with suspicion by Russia and are forcing Atambaev to tread carefully in his relations with the Turkish side.

"The warming of relations with Turkey is not well received by the Chinese leadership (either), which reacted very negatively to the speeches of Erdogan in support of the Chinese Uigurs during the disturbances in Urumqi," says the study. "During his visit to Kyrgyzstan in February 2011, Erdogan suggested a trilateral meeting with the Prime Minister of Russia, as both countries Kyrgyzstan and Turkey actively cooperate with the country and a number of issues of concern to them could be addressed within trilateral talks. However, such a meeting has not been held so far, because the format seems unacceptable for the Russian side."

The study adds: "Besides, regular statements by the Kyrgyz leadership about the formation of a parliamentary republic following the example of Turkey are also perceived negatively by Russia, which considers the transition to parliamentary rule in Kyrgyzstan as a serious mistake.

"The Prime Minister Atambaev in April 2011, concluding his visit to Ankara, stated that Kyrgyzstan plans to establish a joint economic zone with Turkey. He called Turkey a strategic partner of Kyrgyzstan. He explained that Turkey, just like Russia, ‘is a brotherly country for us’. He added: In 2011 we want to sign an agreement to access to the Customs Union. And then to create a single space with Russia and Turkey, with its centre in Bishkek."

Solid contractual legal framework

Two policy documents – a ‘Treaty for Eternal Friendship and Cooperation between the Kyrgyz Republic and the Turkish Republic’, dated October 24, 1997, and a Joint Declaration of the Heads of the two countries ‘Kyrgyzstan and Turkey together in the XXI century’, made on July 1, 1999, are the fundamental documents reflecting the internal content and spirit of relationships between the two countries.

Apart from these fundamental treaties and declarations, Kyrgyz-Turkish relations have a solid contractual legal framework consisting of more than 100 treaties, agreements and protocols governing issues of the current and future cooperation in various spheres, including political, economic, trade, cultural and humanitarian, scientific, educational, military, technical and others.

Among these are: the Agreement on Cooperation in the Public Health sector, Memorandum on the fundamentals of Customs Relations, Agreement on Trade and Economic cooperation, and Military Cooperation Agreement.

Economic cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Turkey has developed within the framework of the main provisions of about 50 agreements and contracts signed over the years. Providing each other most favoured nation treatment in respect to customs duties and other advantages for import and export of goods are envisaged by the fundamental Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation.

It was in order to implement this agreement and further expand trade and economic cooperation that the Joint Kyrgyz-Turkish Intergovernmental Economic Commission was established. Turkey ranks second in terms of the volume of investments (more than $450 million) invested in the Kyrgyz economy from abroad. The general trends in trade relations have not radically changed and Turkish supplies still dominate in trade between the two countries.

TIKA (Turkish Agency for Cooperation and Development under the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Turkey) is one of the key channels for Turkey’s participation in providing assistance to Kyrgyzstan.

The Kyrgyz Republic ranks second in Eurasia for the number of projects implemented jointly with TIKA. The total financial resources allocated by TIKA to Kyrgyzstan for the period from 1992-2011 exceed $18 million.

TIKA opened its headquarters in the brotherly Kyrgyz Republic in 1992. Among the Eurasian countries, the Kyrgyz Republic was one of the first countries to join the activities of TIKA. The Bishkek Coordination Office of TICA programs was opened in Kyrgyzstan in September 1993 within the ‘Protocol of Cooperation’ signed on April 8, 1993 between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic, and was one of the first offices of TICA established abroad.

TIKA projects cover a variety of areas, including improvement of public administration and local self-government, law enforcement system, educational projects and projects in health, culture and science sectors. TIKA assisted participation of Kyrgyz specialists in many international conferences, training courses, congresses, workshops, working meetings and exhibitions.

Cultural and humanitarian cooperation is another important sphere through which Turkish influence has been advanced, says the study. This is one of the most advanced sectors of the Kyrgyz-Turkish cooperation. Currently, there are about 1700 students from Kyrgyzstan studying in educational establishments in Turkey, more than 750 of them funded by the Turkish government and the rest studying privately. More than 1500 Turkish students are studying in universities in Kyrgyzstan.

At the same time, the study adds, Turkey’s educational policy in Kyrgyzstan has caused some concern in the Kyrgyz society. Many people believe that young people studying in Turkish educational institutions could get isolated from their own education system and this could lead to the creation of a generation more at home with Turkish language, customs and traditions; and that Kyrgyz youth educated in secondary and higher educational establishments in Turkey, when returning home, might represent a big threat for Kyrgyzstan.

Military cooperation

"Military cooperation is another high profile area in Kyrgyz-Turkish relations. It should be noted that during incursions by international terrorist groups in the southern regions of the country, Turkey has been one of the first countries to provide assistance," says Bogatyriev, co-author of the study.

Military agencies from both parties have been cooperating since 1993. The military cooperation agreement signed between the two states covers cooperation in: military education and training; exchange of military delegations and observers during exercises; organization of visits, exchange of experiences and information on common issues; joint preparation for peacekeeping operations; organization of training, exchange of information and experience to counter international terrorist activity; exchange and secure storage of information; defence industry, and technical military cooperation; co-operation in the area of military history, archives, military publications, military museums; and cultural exchange for the armed forces of the two countries.

Other activities are carried out within the framework of NATO’s ‘Partnership for Peace’ program. Each year about 100 cadets from the Kyrgyzstan are educated and trained in the leading military educational establishments in the Republic of Turkey, among them the Higher Military Academy ‘Gülhane’ Military Medical Academy, Higher Combined Arms Military College, Supreme School of the gendarmerie and several military lyceums.

Every year Turkey provides grants to Kyrgyzstan for the reorganization of the armed forces, also technical military assistance to strengthen the defence system and train military personnel. Turkish instructors placed in the Armed Forces of the Kyrgyz Republic share their experiences of mountainous terrain and sniper training with local counterparts.

For several years Turkey has been providing at no cost logistics, clothing, medical equipment, food, and means of communication to the Kyrgyzstan army. During this period, Turkey has provided military and technical assistance to Kyrgyzstan’s border service to the value of 4.4 million USD.

The Kyrgyz and the Turkish authorities work together in several international organizations. Turkey helped the Kyrgyz Republic in its accession to the OIC (Organization of Islamic Conference) and ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization). However, Kyrgyzstan has not been particularly active on a number of issues of concern to Turkey, including the Armenian Genocide issue and the Kurdish issue.

It was only in November 2007 at the XI Congress of Friendship, Brotherhood and Cooperation of Turkic states, held in Baku, that participants in the Congress adopted a number of documents refuting the events of the Armenian Genocide and condemning the actions of Armenia and its policy of occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. [IDN-InDepthNews – December 21, 2012]

2012 IDN-InDepthNews | Analysis That Matters

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Could Water Strife Lead to ‘Mass Killings’ in the Future?

August 29, 2012 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Thalif Deen

STOCKHOLM, Aug 28 (IPS) – As the world faces possible water scarcities in the next two to three decades, the U.S. intelligence community has already portrayed a grim scenario for the foreseeable future: ethnic conflicts, regional tensions, political instability and even mass killings.During the next 10 years, "many countries important to the United States will almost certainly experience water problems – shortages, poor water quality, or floods – that will contribute to the risk of instability and state failure, and increased regional tensions," stated a National Intelligence Estimate released last March.

And in July, Chris Kojm, chairman of the National Intelligence Council, predicted that by 2030, nearly half of the world’s population (currently at more than 7 billion) will live in areas of severe water stress, increasing the likelihood of mass killings.

The New York Times quoted Timothy Snyder, a professor of history at Yale University, as saying at a recent symposium that an "ecological panic, I am afraid, will lead to mass killings in the decades to come".

But Dr. Upmanu Lall, director of Columbia University’s Water Centre, has mixed feelings about potential conflicts over water, one of the world’s key natural resources necessary for survival.

"I am not sure I can project mass killings as a consequence (of water scarcities)," he told IPS.

And, he said, he does not expect transnational wars or conflicts over water either, "but I do expect that competition within some major countries such as India could lead to significant internal strife and the growth of terrorism and sectarian conflict". However, "avoiding this future is feasible if we work to act on it today," he added.

A future doomed to suffer intense water scarcities is one of several subjects under discussion at the weeklong international water conference, due to conclude Friday, in the Swedish capital.

Dr. Lall said the projection that nearly half the world’s population will live in "severe water stress" by 2030 under a business as usual scenario is quite realistic, even without climate factors being considered. "This is an urgent challenge, especially as we consider the prospect of mega-droughts – for example this year in the United States and in India."

The impacts will be far flung and severe, he warned. However, "if we can translate this concern into action, especially on improvements in water use in agriculture, which is by far the largest and most inefficient consumer, then we could avert this disaster," he said.

So far, there is talk in this direction but no global imperative to make targeted progress. "It is important that this be taken up at the highest levels to avoid considerable distress to the world’s population and economies," Dr. Lall added.

Gary White, chief executive officer and co-founder of Water.Org, told IPS he believes access to water resources will create conflicts in the coming years.

"This will be particularly true in areas that are water stressed and there are large concentrations of poor populations."

"However, I also believe that most governments will ultimately step up and put in place the right policies, regulations and transnational agreements needed to avert major conflicts."

White pointed out that there will be many acute shortages that will take a significant human and economic toll but said he believed that "outright conflict will be the exception".

In general, regional water crises unfold relatively slowly compared to most natural disasters and there will be lessons that are absorbed by those witnessing how significant the impact can be, hopefully increasing their resolve to avoid similar impacts in their regions, he noted.

"But these crises and conflicts will disproportionately impact the poor because there are always options for more affluent populations to deploy technology to treat local water resources (even to the point of desalinating sea water) or transporting it through pipe systems across great distances – options that are prohibitively expensive for poorer populations," he declared.

Asked if the 2010 U.N. General Assembly declaration of water as a basic human right translates into the provision of water free of cost to the world’s poorer nations, Dr. Lall told IPS: “I have been saying that the basic human right should be that everyone should be able to pay to get safe drinking water."

This statement, he pointed out, implies that the payment needed is consistent with the means of the individual.

Today, the poor actually pay more per unit of water than the rich – the payment may be in terms of money or in terms of labor invested in acquiring the water. Nor are they are assured a decent quality of water, he pointed out.

"Here, by the poor I refer to the economically disadvantaged in a particular society, and also to nations that are not as affluent."

This reveals a stark reality that unless services are extended to such people, they suffer.

But to extend these services, one needs a model for cost recovery at the water system level, since the sources of reliable and safe water are rarely accessible to the full population, and have to be developed and maintained, Dr. Lall said.

The goal then has to be that the investment in these services needs to be funded as well as the financial ability to operate and maintain them.

Paying for the water also endows the user with a powerful right, the one to demand that she gets what she paid for, and this can work into improved governance through political pressure, he argued.

Where people have done this successfully, the service and the costs of water for the poor have dropped, and there has not been an increase in the cost of service to the rich.

"So, in summary, yes, everyone should pay a price for water, but consistent with their means, and by paying that price strengthen their right to access a reliable, high quality supply."

This should be the articulation of the big water goal, instead of the declaration that it is a basic human right, he declared.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

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The Endless War: Saudi Arabia Goes on the Offensive Against Iran

August 27, 2012 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / Oilprice.com

By. Felix Imonti for Oilprice.com

Saudi Arabia has gone on the offensive against Iran to protect its interests.  Their involvement in Syria is the first battle in what is going to be a long bloody conflict that will know no frontiers or limits.

Ongoing Disorders in the island kingdom of Bahrain since February of 2011 have set off alarm bells in Riyadh.  The Saudis are convinced that Iran is directing the protests and fear that the problems will spill over the twenty-five kilometer long COSWAY into  oil rich Al-Qatif, where The bulk of the two million Shia in the kingdom are concentrated.  So far, the Saudis have not had to deal with demonstrations a serious as those in Bahrain, but success in the island kingdom could encourage the protestors to become more violent.

Protecting the oil is the first concern of the government.  Oil is the sole source of the national wealth and it is managed by the state owned Saudi Aramco Corporation.  The monopoly of political power by the members of the Saud family means that all of the wealth of the kingdom is their personal property.  Saudi Arabia is a company country with the twenty-eight million citizens the responsibility of the Saud Family rulers.

The customary manner of dealing with a problem by the patriarchal regime is to bury it in money.  King Abdullah announced at the height of the Arab Spring that he was increasing the national budget by 130 billion dollars to be spent over the coming five years.  Government salaries and the minimum wage were raised.  New housing and other benefits are to be provided.  At the same time, he plans to expand the security forces by sixty thousand men.

While the Saudi king seeks to sooth the unrest among the general population by adding more government benefits, he will not grant any concessions to the eight percent of the population that is Shia. He takes seriously the warning by King Abdullah of Jordan back in 2004 of the danger of a Shia Crescent that would extend from the coast of Lebanon to Afghanistan.  Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad in Syria, and the Shia controlled government of Iraq form the links in the chain.

When the Arab Spring reached Syria, the leaders in Riyadh were given the weapon to break the chain.  Appeals from tribal leaders under attack in Syria to kinsmen in the Gulf States for assistance could not be ignored.  The various blinks between the Gulf States in several Syrian tribes means that Saudi Arabia and its close ally Qatar have connections that include at least three million people out of the Syrian populations of twenty-three million.  To show how deep the bonds go, the leader of the Nijris Tribe in Syria is married to a woman from the Saud Family.

It is no wonder that Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said in February that arming the Syrian rebels was an "excellent idea."  He was supported by Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani who said, "We should do whatever necessary to help [the Syrian opposition], including giving them weapons to defend themselves."  The intervention has the nature of a family and tribal issue that the prominent Saudi cleric Aidh al-Qarni has turned into a Sunni-Shia War by promoting Assad’s death.

The Saudis and their Qatar and United Arab Emirate allies have pledged one hundred million dollars to pay wages to the fighters.  Many of the officers of the Free Syrian Army are from tribes connected to the Gulf.  In effect, the payment of wages is paying members of associated tribes.

Here, the United States is not a welcomed partner, except as a supplier of arms.  Saudi Arabia sees the role of the United States limited to being a wall of steel to protect the oil wealth of the Kingdom and the Gulf States from Iranian aggression. In February of 1945, President Roosevelt at a meeting in Egypt with Abdel Aziz bin Saud, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, pledged to defend the kingdom in exchange for a steady flow of oil.

Since those long ago days when the U.S. was establishing Pax Americana, the Saudis have lost their trust in the wisdom or the reliability of American policy makers.  The Saudis urged the U.S. not to invade Iraq in 2003 only to have them ignore Saudi interests in maintaining an Iraqi buffer zone against Iran.  The Saudis had asked the U.S. not to leave a Shia dominated government in Baghdad that would threaten the Northern frontier of the Kingdom, only to have the last American soldiers depart in December 2011.  With revolution sweeping across the Middle East, Washington abandoned President Mubarak of Egypt, Saudi Arabia’s favorite non royal leader in the region.

Worried by the possibility of Iranian sponsored insurrections among Shia in the Gulf States, the Saudis are asserting their power in the region while they have the advantage.  For thirty years, they have been engaged in a proxy war with the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Syria is to be the next battlefield, but here, there is a critical difference from what were minor skirmishes in Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere.  The Saudis with the aid of Qatar, and the UAE is striking at the core interests of Tehran; and they have through their tribal networks the advantage over an isolated Islamic Republic.

Tribal and kinship relations are being augmented by the infusion of the Salafi vision of Islam that is growing in the Gulf States.  Money from the Gulf States has gone into the development of religious centers to spread the fundamentalist belief.  A critical part of the ideology is to be anti-Shia.

Salafism in Saudi Arabia is promulgated by the Wahhabi School of Islam.  The Wahhabi movement began in the eighteenth century and promoted a return to the fundamentalism of the early followers of the Faith.

The Sauds incorporated the religious movement into their leadership of the tribes.  When the modern state of Saudi Arabia was formed, they were granted control of the educational system and much else in the society in exchange for the endorsement of the authoritarian rule. 

When the Kingdom used its growing wealth in the 1970s to extend its interests far from the traditional territory in the battle against the atheistic Soviet Union, the Wahhabi clergy became missionaries in advancing their ideology through religious institutions to oppose the Soviets.  More than two hundred thousand jihadists were sent into Afghanistan to fight the Soviet forces and succeeded in driving them out.

There is no longer a Soviet Union to confront.  Today, the enemy is the Islamic Republic of Iran with what is described by the Wahhabis as a heretical form of Islam and its involvement in the Shia communities across the region.  For thirteen centuries, the Shia have been kept under control.  With the hand of Iran in the form of the Qud Force reaching into restless communities that number as many as one hundred and six million people in what is the heart of the Middle East, the Saudis see a desperate need to crush the foe before it has the means to pull down the privileged position of the Saud Family and the families of the other Gulf State rulers.

The war begins in Syria where we can expect that a successor government to Assad will be declared soon in the Saudi controlled tribal areas even before Assad is defeated.  The territory is likely to adopt the more fundamentalist principals of the Salafists as it serves as a stepping stone to Iran Itself.  It promises to be a bloody protracted war that will recognize no frontier and will know no limits by all of the participants.

 

Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/The-Endless-War-Saudi-Arabia-Goes-on-the-Offensive-Against-Iran.html

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SUDAN: Close to War As the South Prepares to Celebrate Independence

July 10, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Reem Abbas

KHARTOUM, Jul 8, 2011 (IPS) – Sudan is closest to civil war since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005.

Mariam Al Sadig, a leading figure in the Umma Party, one of Sudan’s main opposition parties, said that the conflict in Southern Kordofan shows that the CPA has failed tremendously and the events unfolding in Southern Kordofan are a huge security concern to the future of Sudan.

A report released by a coalition of Sudanese, African, Arab and Western non-governmental organsations warns that Sudan is closest to civil war since the signing of the CPA in 2005.

The report titled "Beyond the Pledge: International Engagement After Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement" views the ongoing conflict between the North and South as a predecessor to a full-blown civil war and urges the international community to adopt more targeted sanctions.

Abdel Moniem Al Gak, an activist and co-founder of the Sudan Democracy First Group was involved in the writing and production of the report. Through his organisation, he lobbies for human rights and democracy in Sudan.

He has been based in Juba since his arrest and subsequent detention after the Sudanese government cracked down on international and Sudanese organisations following an arrest warrant issued for Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court in March 2009.

"Sudan is not on the brink of war, Sudan is at war. It is living a state of displacement, destruction, violation of rights and deterioration of human rights in all parts of the country," said Al Gak in a phone interview with IPS.

He added that citizens in different regions in Sudan, the East, Darfur, Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan could suffer the same fate as South Sudan and call for their right to self-determination. He attributed this to peace agreements that do not affect the average citizen and development that contributes to more suffering and causes loss of heritage and displacement.

In May 2011, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) declared that they seized control of Abyei after three days of bloody clashes with Southern soldiers. The army attributed the reason behind the conflict as the ambush and subsequent killing of 22 soldiers of northern origin. Abyei was the site of aerial bombardment and most of its population fled.

International condemnation and campaigning pushed the United Nations to take action immediately and in June, the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei was formed and it deployed 4,200 Ethiopian soldiers on Jun. 27 for six months.

Abyei, an area barely visible on a map, has witnessed a series of conflicts since the singing of the CPA between the government of Sudan led by the ruling party, the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). In March 2008, at least 25,000 were displaced after soldiers from the SPLM clashed with Sudanese soldiers.

Currently, the coalition’s report estimates that 113,000 are displaced as a result of conflicts in Abyei. Abyei was supposed to hold a referendum simultaneously with the South Sudanese referendum to choose whether it wants to become part of the southern "Northern Bahr El Ghazal" state or the northern "South Kordofan" state. The referendum was postponed indefinitely after the two peace partners disagreed on the terms of eligibility to vote.

The report recommends that Abyei and Southern Kordofan need an immediate ceasefire for the displaced to return home and the volatile north-south border on which they are located needs to be a demilitarised zone.

Al Baqir Mukhtar Afifi, the director of Al-Khatim Adlan Centre for Enlightenment and Human Development, one of the organisations involved in the report, states that the report was inspired by all the pending issues between the two partners in the CPA that remain unresolved even though it expires in two days.

"In addition to the issues that may ignite war – citizenship, borders, oil, international debt and assets, Abyei is a real possibility of becoming the ignition of war between the two parts of the split country and the war in Darfur is still going on, and an additional war has erupted in Southern Kordofan. "Even the president who is beating the drums of war, has stated that he expects a war between the north and the south," he told IPS.

The report concludes that the unresolved issues between the north and south will not end on Jul. 9 and it invites the international community to examine its policies towards Sudan to prevent the birth of two states with more problems than prior to the CPA through continuing its engagement in negotiations between both states to ensure "peace, prosperity and stability in the region."

Meanwhile, South Sudan prepares for independence on Jul. 8. Hafiz Mohammed, Director of Justice Africa (Sudan) said he did not believe there would be security problems on the day of independence.

"There are threats but they are not based on real challenges. It is fair to say that it is not in anyone’s interest to ruin this day, especially the Southerners who see this as a big day, the day their nation is born," Mohammed said.

He added that South Sudan had the right to secession. "It is also a sad day, we are witnessing the separation of Sudan. We only hope to see a successful nation in the south," Mohammed said. He added that he hoped the north would benefit from lessons learned from the secession of the south.

"It should try to protect Sudan from further separations and unite the country."

Ibrahim Al Grefwi, co-founder of Sudan Unite, a coalition of artists who attempted to raise awareness about the secession and keep Sudan united, said it will be a historical day when South Sudan becomes independent.

"It is a historical day for Sudan and it is also a very sad day. I feel sad and I feel that we have failed to unite the country. We also lost important aspects of Sudan’s rich cultural diversity," Al Grefwi said.

"People in the north just realized that they lost a huge and an important part of Sudan. The political process marginalised the citizens and they just woke up to find that separation is a reality."

Simon Monoja from the Centre for Peace and Development at the University of Juba in South Sudan said he believed independence day would go smoothly.

"We have militias of concern s in Unity State and Jonglei but I believe that the event tomorrow ill be smooth because it is a day for all Southern Sudanese, they will all want to celebrate it and have it succeed."

But not everyone is happy. "I came from the north two days ago, I was there for 2 months. Most of the northerners are gloomy, they are so worried about the inability to predict what will happen after separation is declared tomorrow. I don’t expect celebrations in the north tomorrow."

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2011.

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U.S.: Military Attack on Iran Recedes, but Tensions Remain High

June 9, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Barbara Slavin

WASHINGTON, Jun 8, 2011 (IPS) – The likelihood of a U.S. or Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations seems miniscule during the remaining months of the Barack Obama administration’s first term.

The U.S. is focused on domestic economic problems, winding down wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, and stabilising emerging democracies in Egypt and Tunisia. Israel is preoccupied with Arab uprisings and new manifestations of people power by Palestinians in and outside the West Bank and Gaza.

Yet war cannot be ruled out, according to regional specialists who say that the persistent invocation of the "military option" by some Israelis and U.S. officials may be inhibiting diplomatic initiatives.

Retired Adm. William "Fox" Fallon, who resigned as head of U.S. Central Command in 2008 after a profile in Esquire magazine portrayed him as opposing a military strike on Iran, told a Washington audience Tuesday that while there seemed to be "little chance" of a preventive strike, "I have no idea" whether one could occur.

"The problem was and still is… this incessant focus on conflict, conflict, conflict," he told a symposium of the American Iranian Council, a group that advocates engagement with Iran. "We ought to be working pretty hard to focus on other things that would put us in a different place" with Iran, he said.

One spark for conflict could be a shooting incident in the narrow waters off Iran in the Persian Gulf.

Fallon said that during the many years he spent stationed in the region as a Navy flyer and commander, U.S. interactions with the regular Iranian Navy were "in my experience, very professional… The problem for us lately is that the IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) has muscled in … more frequently than ever … and they don’t behave in the expected ways. They’ve been challenging in some respects."

"On several occasions while I was the commander we had some shooting out there that was absolutely unnecessary," Fallon added. "This kind of potential is not good."

Fallon and his predecessor, Army Gen. John Abizaid, sought but were apparently denied permission from the George W. Bush administration to negotiate an "incidents at sea" agreement with Iran that would have established procedures for preventing altercations from turning into a major conflict.

"Gen. Abizaid had some very good ideas but they weren’t accepted by the Bush administration," said Col. David Crist, a special adviser to the current head of Centcom, Marine Gen. James Mattis, and the author of an upcoming book on the history of U.S. military clashes with Iran.

Speaking Tuesday at the same Washington symposium as Fallon, Crist said that "there is always the potential for an unintended consequence in the Gulf." He noted a lack of understanding in both countries of how national security decisions are made and examples of "Tom Cruise fly-bys" of Iranian aircraft close to U.S. ships.

"Is this part of an Iranian plan to systematically harass the United States or just [the actions of] hot shot pilots?" Crist asked. The U.S. and Iran are in a "regional cold war but the means to de- escalate are not in place."

Some hardliners in Iran might actually welcome conflict with the United States or Israel to unify a politically divided nation.

At the same time, Iran is continuing its provocative nuclear progress. On Tuesday, Iranian vice president and atomic energy chief Fereydoun Abbasi announced that Iran would install advanced centrifuges to produce uranium enriched to 19.75 percent at Fordow, an installation outside the theological centre of Qom that is built into a mountainside and was revealed by the United States in September 2009. Abbasi also said Iran intended to triple its output of 19.75 percent enriched uranium by the end of this year.

While the uranium is ostensibly meant to be fuel for a Tehran reactor that produces medical isotopes, the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington research group that focuses on nuclear proliferation, warned that such a step would enable Iran "to more quickly break out and produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon, if it chose to do so."

U.S. intelligence officials have said they do not believe that Iranian officials have made a decision to produce a nuclear weapon. The U.S. has not disclosed any hard evidence that Iran has resumed weapons research that, according to a 2007 U.S. intelligence estimate, ended in 2003.

However, Yukiya Amano, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the global nuclear watchdog, told the IAEA board Monday that the agency has acquired new "information related to possible past or current undisclosed nuclear related activities that seem to point to the existence of possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme."

President Obama, after a brief and unsuccessful effort at engagement with Iran, has focused on sanctions to try to convince Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment. The policy has failed to achieve its goal in part because of high oil prices and China’s deepening involvement in the Iranian economy.

Obama has said repeatedly that an Iran equipped with nuclear weapons is "unacceptable".

Greg Thielmann, a senior fellow at the Arms Control Association and veteran nuclear expert at the State Department, told IPS that while he thinks the chances of an unprovoked U.S. attack on Iran in the next two years is "very low", some Israeli officials will continue to press for U.S. military action.

"Some in Israel want to prod us into an attack while others want to wave the saber so that the U.S. will have more sanctions and not consider talking to Iran," Thielmann said.

Any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would probably not destroy all the sites, would certainly not eliminate Iran’s nuclear knowledge and could provoke formidable retaliation against Israel by Iranian partners such as Hezbollah and against U.S. troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Meir Dagan, the former chief of the Israeli intelligence agency, the Mossad, said recently that an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear installations would be "the stupidest thing I have ever heard". This provoked harsh criticism of him by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak.

"They’re not arguing with his logic," Thielmann said. "They are arguing with his right to talk about this publicly."

Fallon said the best solution would be negotiations with Iran but that "it takes two to tango".

"The interests of both people are better addressed with engagement and cooperation rather than antagonism and hostility [but] there is no clear path to this preferred alternative anytime soon," he said.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2011.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


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PAKISTAN: Quiet Town in Deep Shock

May 3, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Ashfaq Yusufzai

ABBOTTABAD, Pakistan, May 3, 2011 (IPS) – The killing of Osama Bin Laden in the garrison city Abbottabad in Pakistan has sent shockwaves among its citizens.The city of 600,000 seemed grief-stricken. Most people avoid media persons, who have arrived here in droves in this most peaceful place in the violence-wracked Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

"We still don’t believe the news regarding Osama’s death at the hands of the U.S. Special Forces," says Nafeesur Rehman, an employee of the local college. "How can it be possible that the world’s most wanted person can stay in a place located just a stone’s throw from the military academy."

But, he says, residents are also worried that Abbottabad could go the Waziristan way because Osama’s three-year presence there could have created more militants.

"My only concern is that our lush green city may suffer after Osama’s episode," says shopkeeper Asad Ali. "People used to visit to have fun and entertainment. Now they are arriving here to ask us questions about militancy."

The usual bustle in this city located 50 kilometres north of capital Islamabad is not visible at least for now. The army has barricaded the three-storey compound where Osama was reportedly killed.

A local police inspector who did not give his name is surprised by the story that started unfolding May 2. "We know that the U.S. would now ask questions from the government about the presence of bin Laden near the military academy, and ultimately people in this serene city would be at the receiving end.

"Our people are very peaceful and educated. They are afraid of militancy and the army operations because these bring destruction and displacement." Thousands are still living in camps due to military operations in the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), he said.

"Our message is loud and clear – that we don’t know Osama bin Laden and we hate terrorism," Abdul Jalal, a cloth seller in the narrow marketplace here told IPS. "This morning, my three children weren’t willing to go to school because yesterday they had undergone immense trouble getting back to home due to searches by army on the road."

"In the scorching sun, we were forced by the army to go on the road on foot instead of bus," a schoolboy said. "How can we create law and order and security problem."

An army soldier told IPS that "the house in which Osama was killed on late Sunday night operation is located near the Pakistan Military Academy Kakul, so it is extremely sensitive, and nobody is allowed inside without proper body search. We have cordoned off the three kilometre road with barbed wires, and only schoolchildren and government employees are allowed to go outside of their homes for duties." The barricades will be removed when the situation improves, he said.

Residents of Bilal Town area and the adjacent Hashmi Colony are now gripped by fear of military action. Abbottabad has remained peaceful within the violence-wracked Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

"The army is still busy conducting search operation in the area," says Wakil Jan, a banker who lives in Bilal Town. The army operation was in the interest of the people, he said.

People were uncertain what the army operation was about, and there was no official word from the army.

"We are staying here, and my mother is at home," Adnan Arshad, a ninth grade student told IPS. "I have no contact with my mother as her telephone is off."

Working women and girl students are facing particular difficulties. "How can we wait in long queues to undergo body search at the entrance of Bilal Colony," said Shaheen Bibi, a schoolteacher. "I am worried about my job and education of my students if the situation drags on. All the students and teachers in our school are anxious what is in store for them."

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This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


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Israel Lashes Out at Palestinian Reconciliation

May 2, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Mel Frykberg

RAMALLAH, May 2, 2011 (IPS) – Israel has lashed out at the recent ground-breaking deal in Cairo, which will see unification of the two main Palestinian political factions after four years of bitter infighting, by threatening economic sanctions against the Palestinians.

"We have agreed to form a government composed of independent figures that will start preparing for presidential and parliamentary elections," chief Fatah negotiator Azzam al-Ahmad told the media in Cairo last week.

"Elections will be held in about eight months from now," he said, adding the Arab League will oversee the implementation of the agreement.

Hamas’ deputy leader, Mousa Abu Marzouk, added, "Our rift gave the Israeli occupation a chance. Today we turn a new page."

Mahmoud al-Zahar, a senior Hamas leader who participated in the talks, said the Apr. 27 deal covered five points, including combining security forces and forming a government made up of "nationalist figures". He said Hamas and Fatah would also free respective prisoners.

In addition, the parties reached an agreement regarding who would sit on the central elections committee, and on a 12-judge committee to oversee the elections. A joint Hamas-Fatah defence committee will oversee the Palestinian security forces. The caretaker government will be composed of technocrats without party affiliation, to be chosen jointly by both parties.

The Israeli government is using the unity agreement, which is due to be ratified in Cairo this week, as justification for punitive economic measures against the Palestinians.

Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz has refused to hand over approximately 88 million dollars in customs taxes and other levies belonging to the Palestinians as stipulated in the 1993 Oslo Accords. Israel has further said it is also considering imposing economic sanctions.

More than 170,000 Palestinians who are employed by the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the West Bank could go without their salaries if the money is withheld, which would create chaos.

PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad told journalists that he and his officials had made urgent contacts with influential international figures asking them to pressure Israel to release the funds owed to the PA. Israel collects approximately 1.4 billion dollars annually on behalf of the PA.

Fayyad added that the attempts at economic blackmail by Israel would not derail the unity process. "We are determined to see the reconciliation through despite this decision."

Senior Fatah official Tawfiq Tirawi added, "If Israel thinks we have to choose between peace with it and peace with Hamas – any Palestinian you ask will tell you we prefer Palestinian unity over peace with Israel," he said. He further pointed out that even with the Palestinian split there had been no peace talks with Israel.

Simultaneously, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out at the attempt at reconciliation.

"The Palestinian Authority must choose either peace with Israel or peace with Hamas. There is no possibility for peace with both," Netanyahu said in a televised statement.

The Israeli government said the unity accord, which took both Israeli and American intelligence by surprise, would not secure peace in the Middle East. Netanyahu further demanded that Abbas carry on shunning the Islamist movement, which has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007 after ousting Fatah in a civil war.

Tirawi responded by saying that it was unnecessary for every faction of the Palestinian political entity to recognise Israel for peace to proceed.

He stated that several factions of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), including the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), had disagreed with the Oslo Accords but had abided by the democratic majority in the PLO to recognise Israel.

"Additionally, we will welcome any peace with Israel, but it will have to stop settlement construction. It is Israel that prefers settlements over peace," he said.

Palestinian unity is regarded as an essential step towards establishing a Palestinian state. Palestinians intend taking their case for independence to the U.N. General Assembly in September and expect to be recognised by 150 nations – well above the requisite number for statehood.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, has lost no time in trying to turn the unity decision against the Palestinians politically by appealing to the international community not to deal with the new unified Palestinian leadership.

He stated that Israel’s security was now under threat by the "terrorist" movement Hamas. Avigdor Lieberman, the Jewish state’s foreign minister, declared that Hamas would now take over the West Bank. Senior Israeli military intelligence figures, however, accused Netanyahu of exaggerating the security threat and trying to score political points.

Dr Samir Awad from Birzeit University, near Ramallah, believes that there is no turning back and that eventually the international community will support a unified Palestinian political front.

"The Palestinians, the indigenous inhabitants, have received nothing from Israel in return for giving up the majority of their homeland and recognising Israel.

"They now have nothing to lose. The Egyptians have made a courageous decision to open the Rafah crossing into Gaza permanently, and national unity is an important step forward," Awad told IPS.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2011.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


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MIDEAST: War Clouds Back Over Gaza

April 12, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Mel Frykberg

RAMALLAH, Apr 12, 2011 (IPS) – After several days of intense violence, during which 19 Palestinians were killed and one Israeli wounded, a fragile calm has returned to Gaza. But political commentators argue that this could well be a precursor to Israel’s next war on the coastal territory.

During the last week the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) launched a series of attacks following a rocket attack from Gaza which hit an Israeli school bus, seriously injuring a 16-year-old pupil.

Palestinians countered that Israel’s assassination of three Hamas commanders a week before the latest bloody confrontations was the spark. Israel blamed elements in Gaza that it says were planning the kidnapping of Israelis in the Sinai.

Following Israel’s strike, resistance fighters from a variety of factions in Gaza retaliated by launching dozens of rockets and missiles at Israel.

Many of those killed in Gaza were Palestinian resistance fighters but civilians were among the dead and injured. The precise figure of civilian casualties is being disputed by Israeli and Palestinian officials.

Israeli intelligence has argued for a number of years that Israeli soldiers were the targets of potential kidnappings. Every year during the Jewish Passover, Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, the Shin Bet, warns Israelis not to travel to the Sinai due to a stated risk of kidnapping. There has been none to date.

This has raised questions about Israel’s timing of the killing of the Hamas commanders. Many are asking whether Israel intends to follow up with another brutal military assault along the lines of Operation Cast Lead, the previous war on Gaza at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009, which left over 1,400 Palestinians dead, most of them civilian, including 300 children.

"The goal that we have settled on, of seeking a return to calm, is a grave error because it will allow Hamas to reinforce along the lines of Hezbollah," Israel’s outspoken foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman told Israeli Army Radio.

"The objective must be to force Hamas out of power. To return to calm accepts a war of attrition in which Hamas can determine when there is a lull and when the front is heating up," he said.

Lieberman’s controversial comments provided a peak into the thinking of the Israeli cabinet which met Tuesday to discuss the flare-up on the country’s southern border with Gaza. Military sources were quoted in Israeli media as saying that the truce would be followed by an even wider-scale confrontation.

"Hamas has been busy rebuilding its forces for the past two years, and this can only mean we’re facing an all-out clash," a senior IDF officer told Israeli media.

An Israeli cabinet member told the Israeli daily ‘Y-Net’ that "in any event, it is not in our interest to launch an extensive operation until after Independence Day, so for now we seek to calm things down. However, if the rocket fire is resumed and Israel hit, there’s no telling what will happen."

For the time being Israeli analysts argue that both sides are interested in a temporary truce despite the heated rhetoric and the chest-thumping because both sides have something to lose.

Hamas can hold a significant section of Israel’s population in the south hostage in their underground bunkers as code-red warnings continually warn of incoming rocket barrages. Israel on the other hand can wreak such devastation on Gaza’s civilian population and infrastructure as to set the territory back decades, not to mention the huge death toll.

Dr Samir Awad from Birzeit University near Ramallah says that not only will the Israelis attack but the timing and agenda of another full-scale war is reliant purely on Israeli dictates.

"Hamas and the other Palestinian factions are in a weak position. They can threaten Israel all they like but Israel has superior military power. It also controls Gaza’s coast, airspace, border-crossings and has the entire strip under lockdown so there is very little Hamas can do in reality," Awad told IPS.

"One of the reasons behind the timing of the assassination of the three Hamas commanders was the prospect of Fatah-Hamas unity talks resulting in some concrete and positive developments as the two sides met recently," added Awad.

"Israel greatly fears a united Palestinian front. Now there is tension and chaos again in Gaza and unity talks are once again on the backburner. Furthermore, Israel has also taken advantage of the confusion and unrest sweeping the Arab world when Hamas is weakened by a disaffected public in Gaza and is struggling to control the smaller factions."

Prof Moshe Ma’oz from Jerusalem’s Hebrew University believes that if Israel does attack it would have to consider the complications and consequences on the ground. "In order to keep control of Gaza the IDF would have to reoccupy it. This would be costly and a military drain. What would the follow-up plan for dealing with 1.5 million people be and has this been thought through?

"However, one thing is for sure. Should Hamas hit another civilian target like a school bus and cause a high number of deaths, Israel would strike with an iron fist and the consequences would be very bloody."

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2011.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


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U.S.-CHINA: Will Renewed Military Ties Relax Regional Tensions?

October 10, 2010 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Jim Lobe*

WASHINGTON, Oct 8, 2010 (IPS) – While a growing dispute between the U.S. and China over the proper valuation of the renminbi is likely to dominate this weekend’s annual meeting here of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), another aspect of the complex bilateral relationship between the two global giants may be on the mend.

A month-long effort to restore military-to-military ties between Washington and Beijing seems to have paid off with this week’s announcement that Pentagon chief Robert Gates will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Gen. Liang Guanglie, in Vietnam next week.

The Chinese government has also agreed to invite Gates to visit Beijing early next year, shortly after a state visit to Washington by President Hu Jintao in January, according to U.S. officials.

Gates was supposed to go twice earlier this year but was "disinvited" at the last minute, presumably to show Beijing’s continuing unhappiness with Washington’s 6.4- billion-dollar arms sale to Taiwan that was announced last January. Confirmation of that deal provoked Beijing to cut off most bilateral military contacts.

The resumption of ties, which also includes high-level meetings later this month at the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii, will offer Washington something it has long sought – greater insight into the strategic thinking of China’s military leadership, especially at a moment of growing questions here about the influence the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is exerting on Beijing’s foreign policy.

Indeed, Gates himself suggested that the military was behind the cancellation of his first visit. Speaking in Singapore in May, he complained that "the PLA is significantly less interested in this (military) relationship (with the U.S.) than the political leadership of China."

The debate over China’s strategic designs has been fostered by the sustained rate at which Beijing has increased its defence budget – at an estimated 150 billion dollars, still only about 25 percent of the Pentagon’s annual spending – over the past two decades.

Specifically, the steady build-up of its navy towards a "blue-water" fleet and of a sizeable air force, as well as the rapid growth in its inventory of long-range anti-ship missiles, has increased concern that Beijing poses an ever- growing threat to the U.S. Navy’s freedom of manoeuvre within hundreds of kilometres of China’s shores.

"China is shifting its military focus from a land-centric focus to an air- and maritime-focused capability," the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, noted at a forum in India last summer. "The Pacific region is a critical economic region… I’ve gone from being curious about where China’s headed to being concerned about it."

Those worries have become more pronounced as a result of what many observers here and in the region have characterised as recent Chinese "bullying" of its neighbours in the East China, South China and Yellow seas.

That "bullying" most recently took the form of unprecedented diplomatic and economic pressure on Japan to release a Chinese sea captain who allegedly rammed his fishing trawler against two Japanese Coast Guard vessels near a disputed island chain administered by Tokyo.

While Tokyo released the captain after China, among other measures, abruptly cut off Japan’s supply of rare-earth minerals critical to key Japanese industries, the incident – combined with Beijing’s recent assertions that it considers the entire South China Sea a "core [national] interest", a status similar to Taiwan and Tibet – appeared to belie China’s long-held commitment to a "peaceful rise" that would not threaten its neighbours

Indeed, China’s new assertiveness may have backfired, according to experts here.

"The measure of a great power is not how it flexes its muscles, but how it refrains from doing so," wrote Minxin Pei, a Chinese-born U.S. scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, last week. "…Even though (Beijing) succeeded in forcing Tokyo to back down and release the detained captain, China gravely damaged its ties with Japan and sullied its image as a responsible great power."

It may also have worked in Washington’s favour, as China’s worried neighbours, some of which, like Japan itself, had been pursuing increasingly friendly policies toward China, have moved quickly to bolster their ties with the U.S.

Thus, the raging national controversy in Japan over the future of a U.S. military base in Okinawa vanished virtually overnight in the wake of the trawler incident.

At the same time South Korea, which was infuriated by China’s refusal to denounce North Korea for its alleged responsibility for the deadly sinking of one of its naval vessels last March, has also moved closer to Washington despite Beijing’s vigorous protests over joint U.S.-South Korean manoeuvres in the Yellow Sea.

The reaction has been similar in Southeast Asia, where China’s territorial claims over the South China Sea – and the potentially oil- and gas-rich seabed beneath it – conflict with those of half a dozen other nations.

The Chinese Navy (PLAN), which built a new submarine base on Hainan Island, has become increasingly aggressive in patrolling the sea over the past year, according to regional specialists.

In an ironic echo of the trawler incident, Hanoi is currently demanding the release of nine fishermen detained by China near the Sea’s Paracel Islands, over which both countries have previously clashed.

Washington has been quick to take advantage by upgrading its military ties in the region, notably with Indonesia and Vietnam. In August, Hanoi held joint military-training exercises with the U.S. Navy for the first time.

Beijing was incensed at a regional security meeting last July when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lined up behind Hanoi and most of China’s other Southeast Asian neighbours by declaring that Washington had a "national interest" in preserving freedom of navigation in the region and open access to its maritime commons and offering to "facilitate" regional talks to resolve territorial disputes.

Beijing has always insisted that such disputes could only be taken up on a bilateral basis and denounced her statement at the time as an "attack" on China.

"We firmly oppose any country having nothing to do with the South China Sea issue getting involved in the dispute," a Foreign Ministry spokesperson noted last month in advance of a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in New York that was attended by President Barack Obama himself.

While the administration’s moves and harder line toward Beijing on territorial, as well as economic issues have been applauded by right-wing figures here, however, both the administration and the Pentagon appear more interested in easing tensions than inflaming them.

Restoring military ties reportedly was high on the agenda when Obama sent his top economic adviser, Lawrence Summers, and Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, who will replace Gen. James Jones as national security adviser later this week, to Beijing one month ago.

Having received a favourable response, the administration sent a senior State Department official to prepare the ground for this week’s announcements, which were made in both Washington and Beijing.

*Jim Lobe’s blog on U.S. foreign policy can be read at http://www.lobelog.com.

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This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


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CHILE: Society’s Incomprehension Fuels Mapuche Hunger Strike

September 30, 2010 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Daniela Estrada

SANTIAGO, Sep 29, 2010 (IPS) – As concern grows for the health and lives of 38 Mapuche prisoners on a hunger strike in different prisons in southern Chile, IPS consulted academics about the problems underlying the conflict.

None of the attempts by the government of right-wing President Sebastián Piñera to persuade the fasters to call off their protest, launched by the original group of hunger strikers 80 days ago, have been successful.

"Two completely different languages are being spoken here," José Bengoa, an anthropology professor at the private Universidad Academia de Humanismo Cristiano, told IPS. "On one hand, the young Mapuche activists are talking about politics and rights, while the government, in a huge step backwards, is talking about poverty, development and building roads.

"These are two very different conceptions, which lead to a failure to find a solution to this hunger strike," said Bengoa, who is a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council Advisory Committee.

Of the nearly one million Mapuche Indians in this South American country of 17 million people, around half live in the south of the country, in the regions of Bíobío and Araucanía, and half in the capital.

A group of imprisoned Mapuche activists who identify themselves as political prisoners began a hunger strike on Jul. 12, and were gradually joined by others, who brought the total to 38. They are being held in several prisons in the south.

Most of them are in a delicate state of health, and there are fears that some are near death.

The hunger strikers, who are in prison on charges of terrorist arson, invasion of property and attempted homicide and bodily injury against a public prosecutor and a passenger bus, are demanding that their cases no longer be tried under the controversial counter-terrorism law passed by the 1973-1990 dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet.

The law, which has been widely criticised by rights groups and experts within and outside of Chile, not only makes it possible for witnesses to conceal their identity, but allows secret judicial investigations, longer periods of arrest on remand, and heavy sentences. There are also allegations that unidentified witnesses have been paid to testify against the Mapuche defendants.

Another of the hunger strikers’ demands is an end to the practice by which some Mapuche activists are tried in the same case by both the civil and military courts when members of the armed forces are involved, and the resultant sentences are served consecutively.

After weeks of inaction, the Piñera administration, whose inauguration in March brought to an end two decades of government by the centre-left Coalition of Parties for Democracy, introduced two bills in parliament early this month, to reform the military justice system and the counter-terrorism law, with the aim of persuading the protesters to call off their hunger strike.

The government also asked Catholic Bishop Ricardo Ezzati to broker talks with the Mapuche activists, who have the backing of intellectuals and social and religious leaders, some of whom have even launched hunger strikes of their own in solidarity with their cause.

Although the government has promised to drop the charges under the anti-terrorism law that were brought by the government of former President Michelle Bachelet (2006-2010), the hunger strikers refuse to end their protest, arguing that there is no guarantee this will happen, given the independence and autonomy of the office of the public prosecutor.

They have called on all branches of the state to engage in dialogue with them. But the president of the Supreme Court, Milton Juica, and national prosecutor Sabas Chahuán refused, saying it was unconstitutional.

Congress, in the meantime, remains caught up in a heated debate on the two bills introduced by the executive branch, with no solution in sight.

Chahuán pointed out that the counter-terrorism law was invoked in just 12 of the 388 cases in which Mapuche activists have been tried since 2000, in connection with land occupations and other actions to lay claim to what the indigenous group considers its ancestral territory in southern Chile.

The government, meanwhile, called on different actors to take part in a dialogue on "underlying issues" — an initiative that has been questioned because the Mapuche community has limited representation in the dialogue, and because it focuses on the so-called Plan Araucanía, a development plan aimed at improving infrastructure and public services for the indigenous people of southern Chile.

Amnesty International and other human rights groups, as well as United Nations Special Rapporteur for the rights of indigenous peoples, James Anaya, have urged the government not to use the anti-terrorism law to try Mapuche activists, and to consider all possible legal and political alternatives to find a solution to the conflict over land.

International Labour Organisation (ILO) Convention 169 on Indigenous and Tribal Peoples, ratified by Chile in 2008, "is being violated because" the Mapuche are not duly consulted on questions that affect them, as stipulated by the international instrument, said Milka Castro, director of the programme of legal anthropology and interculturalism at the University of Chile law school.

Castro told IPS: "It is surprising to learn from the media how little professionals in the public sphere and government officials know about Convention 169 and the U.N. Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (approved in 2007), which was also signed by Chile, and especially how little they know about the cultural diversity of our country.

"There is a historical state of ignorance intentionally cultivated from grade school up through university," the anthropologist said, referring to the lack of awareness on the occupation of Mapuche territory by the state in the 19th century, in a process known as the "pacification of Araucania", and the handing over of indigenous land to private owners.

The process continued throughout the 20th century, with the government offering incentives like land and subsidies to forestry companies and other firms interested in operating in undeveloped parts of the country.

Bengoa said "A significant proportion of the Mapuche people are seeking a different relationship with Chilean society in general, and with the Chilean state in particular.

"In precise, concrete terms, what they want is a process of decolonisation, which states have a hard time reacting to or understanding," said the academic, who has written a number of books on the Mapuche people.

According to Bengoa, Chilean society sees indigenous people as having "a subordinate relationship" to mainstream society: Chileans "have an image of a respectful indigenous person who does not press for all of his or her rights."

The government and part of the country’s political leadership claim that the Mapuche activists involved in land occupations and other protest actions considered to be criminal activities represent a small minority, and that the indigenous group’s main problem is poverty.

But Bengoa said "It is a manipulation to say there are two groups: the ‘good’ Mapuche and the ‘bad’ Mapuche."

Just because some sectors of the Mapuche community are demanding better living conditions does not mean they do not also want "a significant degree of self-government or autonomy," he said.

"Obviously, those who are demanding this (autonomy) have always been, everywhere in the world, the vanguard, the young, the elites, the intellectuals, the ones who think of their people as a collective, who think of the Mapuche nation as existing in the future," he said.

Castro said "A key issue is territory," and asked "Who is analysing and discussing this issue in a responsible, rigorous manner in our country? And how can Chile solve this problem?"

She said the Mapuche claims to their ancestral territory clash with the interests of business, especially the forestry companies, which own land that was seized in the past from indigenous people in the south.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2010.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


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