Asian Giants Poised to Outshine USA and Europe

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IDN

By Jaya Ramachandran

IDN-InDepth NewsAnalysis

PARIS (IDN) – The economies of China and India are poised to outshine those of the United States and Western Europe over the next half century, though an overwhelming majority of the Chinese and Indians are unlikely to attain the living standards of citizens in the rich industrial countries, predicts a new study.

Titled Looking to 2060: A Global Vision of Long-term Growth, the report expects the United States to cede its place as the world’s largest economy to China, as early as 2016. India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is also projected to exceed that of the U.S. over the long term.

2060_oecd“Combined, the two Asian giants will soon surpass the collective economy of the G7 industrial nations – Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, USA and Japan. Fast-ageing economic heavyweights, such as Japan and the euro area, will gradually lose ground on the global GDP table to countries with a younger population, like Indonesia and Brazil,” says the study by the 34-nation Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Using a new model for projecting growth in the 34 OECD members and 8 major non-OECD G20 economies over the next 50 years, the report forecasts global economic growth of 3 percent annually, with sharp differences between the emerging-market economies, which are expected to grow at a much faster pace, and the advanced countries, which will likely grow at slower and often declining rates. Cross-country GDP per capita differences mainly reflect differences in technology levels, capital intensity, human capital and skills.

“The economic crisis we have been living with for the past five years will eventually be overcome, but the world our children and grandchildren inherit may be starkly different from ours,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. “As the largest and fastest-growing emerging countries fully assume a more prominent place in the global economy, we will face new challenges to ensure a prosperous and sustainable world for all. Education and productivity will be the main drivers of future growth, and should be policy priorities worldwide.”

The report expects that the shifting balance of long-term global output will lead to corresponding improvements in living standards, with income per capita expected to more than quadruple in the poorest countries by 2060. The increase could even be seven-fold in China and India, it says. Subsequently, the gap that currently exists in living standards between emerging-markets and advanced economies will have narrowed by 2060.

“But large cross-country differences will persist. China will see more than a seven-fold increase in per capita income over the coming half century, but living standards will still only be 60% of that in the leading countries in 2060. India will experience similar growth, but its per capita income will only be about 25% of that in advanced countries,” predicts the study.

“None of these forecasts are set in stone,” Gurría said. “We know that bold structural reforms can boost long-term growth and living standards in advanced and emerging-market economies alike.”

Thus, OECD research shows that wide-ranging labour and product market reforms could raise long-term living standards by an average of 16% over the next 50 years relative to the baseline scenario, which only assumes moderate policy improvements.

World GDP

The report forecasts major changes in the composition of world GDP – taken as sum of GDP for 34 OECD and 8 non-OECD G20 countries. On the basis of 2005 purchasing power parities (PPPs), China is projected to surpass the Euro Area in a year or so and the United States in a few more years, to become the largest economy in the world, and India is projected to surpass Japan in the next year or two and the Euro area in about 20 years.

The faster growth rates of China and India imply that their combined GDP will exceed that of the major seven (G7) OECD economies by around 2025 and by 2060 it will be more than 1½ times larger, whereas in 2010 China and India accounted for less than one half of G7 GDP. Strikingly, the combined GDP of these two countries will be larger than that of the entire OECD area, based on today’s membership, in 2060, while it currently amounts to only one-third of it.

“Such changes in shares of world GDP will be matched by a tendency of GDP per capita to converge across countries, which however will still leave significant gaps in living standards between advanced and emerging economies,” explains the report.

Over the next half century, the unweighted average of GDP per capita (in 2005 PPP terms), is predicted to grow by roughly 3% annually in the non-OECD area, as against 1.7% in the OECD area. As a result, GDP per capita in the poorest economies will (in 2011) more than quadruple (in 2005 PPP terms), whereas it will only double in the richest economies.

China and India will experience more than a seven-fold increase of their income per capita by 2060. The extent of the catch-up is more pronounced in China reflecting the momentum of particularly strong productivity growth and rising capital intensity over the last decade. This will bring China 25% above the current (2011) income level of the United States, while income per capita in India will reach only around half the current US level.

Income gaps

Despite this fast growth among “catching-up” countries, the rankings of GDP per capita in 2011 and 2060 are projected to remain very similar. Even though differences in productivity and skills are reduced, remaining differences in these factors still explain a significant share of gaps in living standards in 2060.

Additionally, in a few European OECD countries and some emerging economies differences in labour input will also continue to explain a sizeable share of the remaining income gaps. Indeed, for some European countries, where ageing is more pronounced and/or older-age participation rates are low, these factors are enough to cause a widening in the income gap with the United States, despite continued convergence in productivity and skills levels. [IDN-InDepthNews – November 11, 2012]

2012 IDN-InDepthNews | Analysis That Matters

Image: OECD

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India Poised to Supply Free Drugs to 1.2 Billion People

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Zofeen Ebrahim

BEIJING, Nov 08 (IPS) – As the northern Indian state of Rajasthan rolls out an ambitious universal healthcare plan, the discontent of the state’s doctors stands in stark contrast to the joys of the 68 million people who will benefit from the scheme.Just a little over a year ago, the state government began supplying free generic drugs to its massive population, effectively stripping doctors of the ability to prescribe more expensive branded medicine.

Some 350 essential generic drugs are now being distributed free of cost. As a result, outpatient visits have jumped 60 percent and inpatient admissions are up 30 percent, despite the fact that public health facilities are overcrowded and understaffed, and many people have to travel long distances to reach one.

According to news reports, over 200,000 people are currently taking advantage of the programme.

“(This) has broken the cosy relationship enjoyed for decades between doctors and (drug) manufacturers,” Dr. Nirmal Kumar Gurbani, advisor to the Rajasthan Medical Service Corporation (RMSC) that was constituted by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot to run the scheme, said during a presentation at the Second Global Symposium on Health Systems Research in Beijing last week.

Gurbani, a professor at the Indian Institute of Health Management and Research (IIHMR), added that the ‘Rajasthan model’ is being used as pilot for a similar scheme throughout India, which could bring free drugs to the country’s 1.2 billion residents.

One of the programme’s goals is to end price manipulations of private pharmacies and manufacturers.

“Cipla, for example, produces three kinds of ‘cold’ tablets, which all have the same chemical ingredients. It sells the generic drugs to pharmacies at a wholesale price of about two Indian rupees (0.03 dollars) per pack (of ten tablets) but sells the branded drugs for 23 rupees (0.42 dollars) per pack.

“The chemist then sells all three drugs for anything between 27 to 39 rupees (0.50 to 0.72 dollars) as per the printed price. Thus the patient is at the mercy of the doctor or the pharmacy, and will take whichever drug is recommended to him,” Gurbani explained to IPS.

To counter this practice, the government now buys generic drugs directly from the manufacturers and has “developed infrastructure to hand them over to patients through the 13,874 (approved) drug distribution centres,” Gurbani added.

Patients that are obliged to embark on lifelong drug courses – for conditions like diabetes or heart disease – have hitherto struggled to make their payments.

“A particular brand of medicine used for diabetes costs 117 rupees (2.17 dollars), but we purchase 10 tablets of generic medicines for diabetes at 1.97 rupees (0.036) dollars,” said Gurbani, adding that the difference in pricing certainly did not mean a compromise on efficacy and quality.

Changing lives with free medicine

Gurbani, a former secretary of the Essential Drug List Committee for the Rajsathan state government, says medical expenses are the second most common cause of rural indebtedness in India.

Citing official data, he told the audience at the conference that more than 40 percent of those hospitalised in India needed to borrow money or sell assets in order to afford treatment.

The cost of a single hospitalisation has pushed 35 percent of patients below the poverty line. In fact, unaffordable healthcare has prevented over 23 percent of the sick from consulting a doctor.

The scarcity of medical professionals has contributed to healthcare costs reaching astronomical rates. According to the World Health Organisation, India has just 6.5 physicians to every 10,000 patients. By comparison, China has 14.2 doctors, while Britain has 27.4 physicians for the same number of patients.

The expenditure on drugs alone constitutes between 50 to 80 percent of healthcare costs in India. And all this in a country regarded as the “world’s pharmacy”, Gurbani lamented.

India’s pharmaceutical industry is the third largest in the world with annual production of about 25 billion dollars and domestic sales amounting to 12 billion dollars. India exported medicines worth 13.2 billion dollars in the last fiscal and the government plans to double it to 25 billion dollars by March 2014.

And yet, said Gurbani, “two-thirds of the population do not have regular access to essential drugs.”

Dr. Ravi Narayan, an Indian public health academic who is also part of the All India Drug Action Network, was full of praise for the Rajasthan government’s initiative.

“Rajasthan has a very strong people’s movement and with people like Samit Sharma who heads the RMSC, this was bound to succeed,” he told IPS, on the sidelines of the Beijing symposium.

The runaway success of the Rajasthan model, according to Narayan, has proved that “India is going into the Rajasthan experiment”.

Tamil Nadu, a state of 72 million people, is also providing free medicine for all. Even Karnataka is building on these models, Narayan informed IPS.

With India moving towards universal health coverage (UHC) in the next two years, it has budgeted nearly 300 billion rupees (55.9 million dollars) to fund the programme. It hopes to be able to provide free drugs to 52 percent of the population by April 2017.

The central government will fund 75 percent of the programme, with states doling out the rest.

India’s proposed UHC plan contains many of the features of Rajasthan’s model, such as centralised procurement, regulations to ensure that doctors prescribe cheap generic drugs rather than branded medication, a list of “permitted” drugs and distribution limited to official government health centres.

“It’s not just possible in India, it’s possible all over the world,” said Gurbani.

Obstacles can be overcome

“Conceptually the model has a lot of strength, but it’s difficult from a political perspective. There has to be harmony between the central government and the (28 states and seven union territories) in India,” Abdul Ghaffer, executive director of WHO’s Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, told IPS.

With the country’s public health system already under resourced and struggling to meet the needs of 1.2 billion people, 40 percent of whom live below the poverty line, there are serious challenges to expanding the programme nationwide.

There have been occasional shortages of medicines, which Gurbani attributes to the early stages of a project finding its bearings in a geographically diverse region.

“There is the tribal belt as well as the desert and then the urban areas, besides large rural pockets. The needs are different, so at times we ran out of stocks. These teething problems were inevitable; in the course of time, these shortfalls will be eliminated,” Gurbani predicted.

Others at the conference raised thorny questions about the mammoth infrastructure this process will require, hinting that some states may not yet be in a position to set up warehouses and cold storage facilities, or test all the drugs made by roughly 12,000 manufacturers across India.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


No Social Protection for India’s Elderly

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

K.S. Hari Krishnan

NEW/DELHI/THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, Nov 09 (IPS) – At midnight on Oct. 12, 91-year-old George Puthenveettil, a widower living in Kalanjur village in the Pathanamthita district of the southern Indian state of Kerala, was brutally tortured and ousted from his own house by his only son for “not earning any money”.The nonagenarian wandered the streets of his village for hours before he reached a shelter in Pathanapuram with the help of neighbours. Police said the son had often beaten and harassed the old man, who was financially dependent on his son.

For many people like George, the sunset years of life turn out to be a traumatic period, in which they find themselves entirely dependent on families or friends due to the absence of a good social security system or government pension plan in India.

Expressing concern over the increasing insecurity of elders in the country, Dr. Irudaya Rajan, a prominent demographer and chair professor of the research unit on international migration under the Ministry of Indian Overseas Affairs, told IPS that income security is one of the most urgent needs of India’s aging population.

Years ago, “traditional values and religious beliefs were quite supportive of elderly people”, he said.

Today, economic hardships and the faltering nuclear family system are “drastically eroding the support base of aged people”.

“The majority of the elderly tend to work even after the age of retirement due to inadequate social security and financial resources,” Rajan added.

A report on the aging population in India, released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFP) in New Delhi, said that the country had 90 million elderly people in 2011, with the number expected to grow to 173 million by 2026.

Of the 90 million seniors, 30 million are living alone, and 90 percent work for a living.

Experts estimate that only eight percent of the labour force of about 460 million receives social security from an employer.

‘Informal’ labourers left out in the cold

Over 94 percent of India’s working population is part of the unorganised sector, which refers to all unlicensed, self-employed or unregistered economic activity such as owner-manned general stores, handicrafts and handloom workers, rural traders and farmers, among many others.

Gopal Krishnan, an economist in Chennai, told IPS “There is no social safety coverage for people in the unorganised sector, which accounts for half of the GDP (gross domestic product) of India”.

According to the World Bank, India’s GDP in 2011 was 1,848 billion dollars.

In 2006, the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector recommended that the Union Government establish a National Social Security Scheme to provide the minimum level of benefits to workers retiring from the informal sector.

Until now, the government has not been able to compile a comprehensive policy to address the issues of elderly people. The ministry of social justice and empowerment drafted a National Policy on Older Persons in 1999, which was never implemented.

Hardships abound

Analysts point out that India’s aging population is constantly grappling with health issues, economic stress, family matters, uncertain living arrangements, gender disparities, urban-rural differences, displacement and slum-like living conditions.

Dr. Udaya Shankar Mishra, a senior demographer at the Centre for Development Studies in Thiruvananthapuram, believes the current “profile” of the aging population of India can change.

“The (perception) of the elderly as a burden can, with suitable policies, be turned into an opportunity to realise active and healthy aging,” he told IPS.

“With limited resources, we need to adopt viable policy changes to manage the crisis of the aged. This calls for a detailed auditing of (all) the affairs of the elderly, primarily health, morbidity and mortality in addition to economic and emotional wellbeing.

“Research on geriatric health needs to (shift) towards ensuring a better quality of life among future elderly persons. Considering the demographic inversion and its associated challenges, it (is clear) that investments into healthy aging are necessary,” he added.

Data from the 2011 National Census revealed that the percentage of aged living alone or with spouse is as high as 45 percent in Tamil Nadu, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab and Kerala.

Healthcare experts have found that the elderly are highly prone to heart diseases, respiratory disorders, renal diseases, diabetes, hypertension, neurological problems and prostate issues.

The National Sample Survey Organisation calculates that one out of two elderly people in India suffers from at least one chronic disease, which requires lifelong medication.

The most recent data available, taken for the period 1995-96, revealed that 75 percent of aged individuals are affected by at least one disability relating to sight, hearing, speech, walking, and senility.

Dr. Shanti Johnson, professor at the faculty of Kinesiology and Health Studies at the Canada-based University of Regina, estimates that nearly eight percent of the elderly are immobile, while a disproportionately higher percentage of women are immobile compared to men.

“The average hospitalisation rate in the country per 100,000 aged persons is 7,633. There is considerable gender difference in the rate of hospitalisation, as a much greater proportion of men are hospitalised compared to their female counterparts,” she added.

Non-governmental organisations are advocating for more old-age homes, day-care centers, physiotherapy clinics and temporary shelters for the rehabilitation of older persons, with government funds allocated to the running and maintaining of such projects.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Kashmir’s Roads Turn Militant

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Athar Parvaiz

SRINAGAR, India, Aug 30 (IPS) – The violence that killed thousands in Kashmir during the turbulent 1990s has eased; now killer roads are taking their toll.“Daily police reports about road accidents present a horrible scenario; and almost every week we see newspaper headlines screaming about casualties being inflicted by road accidents across the Kashmir valley,” says Hameeda Nayeem, a civil rights activist who heads the Kashmir Centre for Social and Development Studies (KCSDS).

“Despite the recurrence of accidents, mostly because of bad roads and lack of proper traffic regulation measures, the government thinks nothing beyond the announcement of token relief for mishap victims,” she says.

The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) survey sponsored by India’s home ministry says Kashmir topped the list of “high death prone accidental areas” in 2011.

The study also reveals that any accident in Jammu and Kashmir state has 64 percent chances of being “death prone”, the worst among Indian states on the basis of percentage of fatalities.

Early this year, Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said in a written reply to a legislator that as many as 3,288 persons had been killed and 27,165 injured in 18,786 accidents in the state during the last three years.

He claimed his government has taken several measures such as introducing more stringent penalties in February this year under the Motor Vehicles Act. “A proposal to further amend the Motor Vehicles Act in the backdrop of the recommendation of the Sunder Committee is under consideration.”

The Sunder Committee headed by India’s former transport secretary S. Sunder has proposed higher penalties for offences like crossing the speed limit, driving without a licence, use of a mobile phone while driving, and not wearing seat belts.

The Committee has recommended fines ranging from 1,000 rupees (20 dollars) to 5000 rupees (100 dollars) plus imprisonment. At present traffic regulators either let such offenders go or impose a nominal fine of 100 rupees (two dollars).

This is despite the fact that traffic authorities blame rash and negligent driving for most deaths on Kashmir’s roads. “Overspeeding is the main cause of traffic accidents in the valley. Most drivers don’t care about the rules,” Kashmir’s superintendent of traffic police, Haseeb-ur-Rehman, tells IPS.

In 2010, Kashmir’s Traffic Department had planned to introduce traffic interceptor vans to be equipped with cameras and radar. “But the proposal didn’t receive a positive response.”

“The fatality of roads has been ignored, willfully or unintentionally for quite some time now,” says Bashir Manzar, editor of the English daily Kashmir Images. “Only a huge incident involving the death of dozens attracts attention.

“The response remains limited to statements and condolence messages, and then everything settles in and the vehicles go on killing people as usual.”

Manzar says the media are also to blame for highlighting only accidents which result in a heavy death toll, and remaining silent about the causes of the frequent incidents.

Mohammad Ashraf, a retired government official, blames “killer roads” and the vehicles used for public transport.

“The first culprits are the roads. There is hardly any road which can be termed perfectly fit and safe for driving. Because of our terrain, most of our roads are located in remote mountain areas. One would not mind the rough driving surface with potholes, but the there can be no compromise on safety at steep turns over deep ravines.”

According to Ashraf, the next culprits are the vehicles used for public transportation. “Most of these have outlived their utility and there is absolutely no physical check on the fitness of these vehicles.”

In a number of cases, he says, accidents have occurred due to failure of brakes or the steering mechanism. “Not only are these vehicles a direct danger to human life, they are also the greatest source of pollution.”

Kashmir’s junior minister for roads and buildings, Javaid Ahmad Dar, denies that the government is entirely responsible for the increasing frequency of road accidents. “We are trying our best to improve road safety and we are hopeful we will be able to bring down the number of road accidents and casualties,” Dar told IPS.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Within ‘Special Cell’ of Delhi Police, A History of Falsifying Evidence – Part 3*

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Gareth Porter

WASHINGTON, Aug 30 (IPS) – The Delhi Police Special Cell, which has accused an Indian journalist and four Iranians of conspiring to bomb an Israeli embassy car in Delhi Feb. 13, has a long history of planting evidence on those it has accused and of obtaining false confessions, according to court records now cited by critics of the police unit.The Special Cell (SC) was organised in 1986 to investigate terrorism and major crimes, but it has been given such wide latitude in its operations that it has violated legal norms with complete impunity, critics say.

But the unit’s efforts to frame those it accuses have been so obvious – often employing the same tactics over and over again – that a significant majority of its cases have been rejected by judges in recent years.

Of the 174 individuals against whom the SC has brought charges from 2006 through 2011, 119 of them – nearly 70 percent – have been acquitted, according to official figures obtained under India’s Right to Information Act by activist Gopal Prasad.

The SC response to that development has been to leak false confessions and evidence to the news media in a largely unsuccessful effort to sway judges.

Confessions falsified by the SC are "routinely leaked to the press to establish the guilt of the accused", Manisha Sethi, an assistant professor at Jamia Milia University in Delhi and an activist with the civil rights organisation Jamia Teachers Solidarity Association, told IPS. She described the result as "a vicious trial by media that indicts the accused well before the trial even begins".

In the recent embassy car bombing, the first wave of leaks to the press about the alleged confessions of Indian journalist Syed Mohommed Ahmad Kazmi was timed to generate a wave of sensational articles in March portraying Kazmi as admitting to having been a participant in the embassy car bomb plot just before his bail application, as Sethi pointed out in an e-mail to IPS.

That maneuver prompted the court that was hearing Kazmi’s bail application to admonish the public prosecutor to refrain from such leaks.

A report, soon to be published by the Jamia Teachers’ Solidarity Association and a copy of which has been obtained by IPS, of 16 terrorism cases brought by the SC from 1992 to 2008 documents a consistent pattern of irregularities in police procedures that led the courts to conclude that the police had framed those who had been accused.

The report’s detailed accounts of the cases are based entirely on conclusions reached by the judges in rejecting the central claims of the SC.

Among the most prominent irregularities documented in the report are those relating to incriminating evidence said to have been seized from suspects and to alleged confessions.

Typical of the SC terrorism cases described in the report is the case of Salman Kurshid Kori. The SC claimed that it arrested Kori and two other Muslim men as operatives of the militant Islamic group Lashkar-e-Toiba in December 2006. The SC reported seizing explosives, detonators and hand grenades from bags carried by each of the three men.

But the judge for the case heard evidence that the accused had been detained much earlier than the dates cited by police.

He also pointed out that there were no public witnesses to the seizure of the weapons, contrary to normal police procedures, despite the fact that a crowd had gathered to witness the arrest.

Even more telling, the "seizure memo", which should have been written at the site of the seizure well before the "First Information Report" (FIR) was filed in the case, was found to have been written in the same handwriting and ink as the FIR.

Those obvious signs of police deception convinced the judge that the SC had framed the three men.

The SC officer who supervised the interrogation and arrest of the three men was then-Assistant Commissioner of Police Sanjeev Yadav, now an Additional Deputy Commissioner of Police and in charge of the embassy car bomb case.

The Kori case is not the only one over which Yadav presided to have been rejected by a judge because of indications that innocent people were framed. The report documents a total of four such cases – all from 2006 and 2007 – in which the seizure memo was signed at the same time and by the same person as the FIR. Also, no public witnesses attested to the seizures, and the suspects were found to have been detained much earlier than claimed.

Yadav is also under investigation by the Indian government for the deaths of five people who were said to have been killed in a violent "encounter" in May 2006 in Delhi’s Sonia Vihar district between an SC team and what was believed to be a criminal gang. Relatives of two of the dead alleged in a petition to the National Human Rights Commission that the victims had been taken from their residences by police and then killed in Delhi.

After examining forensic evidence surrounding the supposed encounter, the NHRC concluded in a mid-2010 report that no "cross firing" had occurred – and thus that the police account had been falsified. That report led to the launch of an investigation by a magistrate into the incident last September.

In a separate investigative report published last February on SC abuses in terrorism cases, Sethi described a common pattern in one case after another: alleged secret information from an informant about the arrival of a terrorist in Delhi, followed by dispatch of a police party to the point of arrival; unsuccessful efforts to get civilians to be public witnesses; the apprehension of the "terrorist"; and subsequent recovery of arms or explosives, which were displayed to the press.

Only when each of the cases went to trial was the SC narrative found to have been bogus, according to Sethi’s investigation, which was also based on court documents.

In the 2005 case of Moinuddin Dar and Bashir Amad Shah described by Sethi, the SC claimed that the two men were Kashmiri terrorists who had come to Delhi from Kashmir carrying 450,000 rupees (8,000 U.S. dollars) in a car loaded with arms and ammunition, after the SC had been informed by a confidential source when and where they were arriving. Upon arrest, the two men had allegedly confessed to their terrorist plan.

But Sethi recounted that the case soon fell apart in court when the judge found that the car full of arms and ammunition had been "planted" and "used as a tool to falsely implicate the accused persons in this case". He found that the police vehicle that was supposed to have taken the police team to the site of the arrest had actually not moved that day, and that the two men had been held illegally by police in a hotel room for two weeks.

After investigating another 2006 SC terrorism case, India’s Central Bureau of Investigation called for three SC officers to be charged with lying under oath and creating false evidence. But despite several instances in which courts directed the Delhi Police Commissioner to initiate legal action against officers of the SC for various abuses, none have yet been punished.

*This story is the last in a three-part series, “The Delhi Car Bombing: How the Police Built a False Case”, in which award-winning investigative journalist Gareth Porter dissects the Delhi police accusation against an Indian journalist and four Iranians of involvement in the Feb. 13 bombing of an Israeli embassy car.

Gareth Porter, an investigative historian and journalist specializing in U.S. national security policy, received the UK-based Gellhorn Prize for journalism for 2011 for articles on the U.S. war in Afghanistan.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Police Case for Iranian Bomb Plot Based on Tainted Evidence – Part 2*

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Gareth Porter

WASHINGTON, Aug 28 (IPS) – The "Special Cell" of the Delhi police has identified an Iranian, Houshang Afghan Irani, as the man it believes carried out the Feb. 13 car bombing at the Israeli embassy in New Delhi that injured the wife of an embassy official. The police believe three other Iranians were also involved in the plot.But major questions about the integrity of evidence put forward to prove the existence of an Iranian bomb plot cast doubt on that claim, which is the centrepiece of the Israeli accusation that Iran has been waging a campaign of terrorism against Israelis in as many as 20 countries.

Only Indian journalist Syed Mohammed Ahmad Kazmi has been officially charged in the case, and even the treatment of Irani and the other Iranians as suspects depends very heavily on "disclosure statements" supposedly made by Kazmi but denounced by the journalist as police fabrications.

Although the Special Cell (SC) also claims to have forensic evidence of Irani’s link to the bombing, the evidence appears to be tainted by improper police procedures.

A central problem for the SC case is that it has no eyewitness testimony for its contention that Irani planted the bomb on the Israeli embassy car.

A hotel security camera showed that Irani left the hotel the morning of the explosion wearing a black jacket. Irani had also rented a black Honda Karizma. But eyewitness Gopal Krishanan, who was driving the car that was directly behind the embassy car and thus had a clear view of the motorcycle rider when he attached the bomb to the rear of the car, said he was certain the rider had a red motorcycle and was wearing a red helmet and red jacket.

The police were convinced by his testimony. Tal Yehoshua-Koren, who was injured in the attack but was able to get to the Israeli embassy without assistance, later told investigators she thought the attacker had been riding a black motorcycle and wearing a black jacket and helmet. A senior police officer involved in the case told the Indian Express, however, that Yehoshua-Koren could not be certain of the colour of the motorcycle.

The police continued to search for a red motorcycle after obtaining her statement, as was widely reported in the Indian press. Only after the SC decided that Irani was the bomber did the police switch to the position that the bomber had been riding a black motorcycle and wearing a black helmet and jacket.

Irani became a target of the investigation after the SC learned that a phone number associated with Masoud Sedaghat Zadeh, one of the three Iranians staying in a Bangkok house where an explosion occurred Feb. 14, had allegedly contacted the Indian mobile phone number being used by Irani.

The charge sheet does not include documentation for the claim that Irani’s phone had been called by that of the accused in the Bangkok explosion. And Irani’s receipts shown in the charge sheet for the moped purchased in April 2011 and for the motorcycle rented in early 2012 list Indian mobile phone numbers different from the one cited as having been contacted by Zadeh.

Irani made no effort to hide his identity in either of those transactions, so there would be no reason for him to write a false number on the receipt.

The police claim to have recovered from Irani’s hotel room seven items on which the government’s Central Forensic Science Laboratory found traces of TNT – the same explosive that the bomb affixed to the embassy car contained.

But the SC violated several police procedures in regard to that evidence, suggesting that it may have been planted by the Special Cell.

It was not until Feb. 29, sixteen days after Irani left the hotel, that the room was sealed by police. Even worse, another two weeks passed before it was actually inspected by the Special Cell on Mar. 13, according to the charge sheet. Ordinarily, the passage of that much time between the date the items were allegedly left behind and their discovery would call into question the authenticity of the evidence.

On Jul. 28, a few days before the charge sheet was made public, the manager of the hotel produced an occupancy chart showing that Irani’s room had not been used during the 16 days between his departure and the police order to seal the room.

The chart, which the hotel manager had plenty of time to prepare for the police, makes the highly unlikely claim that Irani’s room was not occupied by any guest during the 16-day period. The effort to show that the room had not been altered after Irani left it still fails to address the awkward question of how so much evidence could have been found in Irani’s room long after it would have been cleaned up by hotel staff.

The belated occupancy chart only makes the forensic evidence claimed by the police appear even more suspicious.

The Kazmi "disclosures" portray an alleged plot that lacked either clear delineation of responsibility for reconnaissance of the embassy or the communication one would expect between the plotters in Tehran and their one local collaborator in Delhi during the crucial months before the explosion.

At one point in a statement attributed to Kazmi but not signed by him, he is portrayed as having returned to Delhi from a trip to Tehran in January 2011 committed to intensive research on "security arrangements and the movement of vehicles and routes travelled to Israeli Embassy".

In discussing Irani’s visit to Delhi in April 2011, however, it does not mention any debriefing of Irani by Kazmi on such reconnaissance. Instead, Irani is said to have carried out the entire reconnaissance operation, with Kazmi’s help, all over again.

When Kazmi’s disclosure comes to the visit of his Tehran contacts, Seyed Ali Mehdiansadr and Reza Abolghasemi, to Delhi in May and June 2011, it makes no reference to any discussion of the reconnaissance Irani had supposedly already done. The two visitors and Kazmi are said to have repeated the same reconnaissance on the embassy yet again, even noting the licence plate numbers of embassy cars.

An even more dramatic divergence from a coherent account of a terror plot is found in the long final Kazmi statement dated Mar. 23 but unsigned by Kazmi. In describing Kazmi’s trip to Tehran in June 2011 the statement says Kazmi’s alleged key contact in the plot, Mehdiansadr, "inquired about the progress of the task assigned me".

But the disclosure statement then says the "task" in question was not gathering detailed information on potential Israeli Embassy targets, but sending "reports on the political developments in the Gulf region, like Syria, Bahrain, Iraq, etc".

In July and August, the same disclosure recounts, Kazmi travelled to Dubai and Syria, and when he communicated with his Tehran contacts, it was not about intelligence for a bombing plan but about his Dubai trip.

Kazmi’s disclosure asserts, in fact, that he did not report to his Iranian contacts on any intelligence gathered on the Israeli Embassy between June 2011 and January 2012, despite allegedly having been given a mobile phone specifically for that purpose.

The questionable character of the police case that the four Iranians conspired on the Delhi bombing does not rule out the possibility that it was an Iranian government operation, but it does indicate that SC investigators could not find convincing evidence of such an Iranian role.

*This story is the second in a three-part series, “The Delhi Car Bombing: How the Police Built a False Case”, in which award-winning investigative journalist Gareth Porter dissects the Delhi police accusation against an Indian journalist and four Iranians of involvement in the Feb. 13 bombing of an Israeli embassy car.

Gareth Porter, an investigative historian and journalist specializing in U.S. national security policy, received the UK-based Gellhorn Prize for journalism for 2011 for articles on the U.S. war in Afghanistan.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Evidence in Delhi Embassy Bombing Suggests Journalist Was Framed – Part 1*

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Gareth Porter

WASHINGTON, Aug 27 (IPS) – New Delhi police officials have released hundreds of pages of documents from their investigation into the Feb. 13 bombing of an Israeli Embassy car. The documents aimed to show that a well-known Indian Muslim journalist aided an Iranian conspiracy to plan and carry out the bombing.But a review by IPS of the evidence filed in the case suggests that the Indian journalist accused in the case has been framed by the police, at least in part to implicate the Iranians in the terror plot.

The "charge sheet" on the embassy car bombing filed by the "Special Cell" (SC) of the Delhi police July 31 claims Indian journalist Syed Mohommed Ahmad Kazmi confessed to helping officials from Iran plan the bombing plot in return for payments totalling 5,500 U.S. dollars.

It also says that a moped used for reconnaissance by the Iranian said to have carried out the bombing was found in Kazmi’s residence and that forensic bomb-making evidence was discovered in the hotel room of that same Iranian.

But an analysis of the documentation included in the filing reveals that the evidence is highly questionable.

The SC has a long history of cases against alleged terrorists that were rejected by the court as involving framing people and planting false evidence.

Kazmi is an unlikely candidate for participation in an Iranian terrorist plot. A 50-year-old senior Indian journalist, he had his own web-based news service, a regular job as a columnist for the leading Urdu-language weekly and a retainer as Urdu newscaster for India’s state-owned television channel Doordarshan.

He did not need the 5,500 U.S. dollars police claim he received for helping the Iranians plan the bombing. Nor did he need the 2.26 million rupees (40,000 U.S. dollars) in foreign remittances that Delhi police chief B. K. Gupta asserted in a press conference in mid-March that the journalist and his wife had received in their bank accounts. Gupta declared that Kazmi and his wife had been "unable to explain" those remittances.

But Kazmi’s family has produced bank documents showing that the remittances had come from relatives in the UK and Singapore in 2009 and 2010. Furthermore, the "Economic Directorate" of the Indian Police assigned to investigate the remittances could find nothing incriminating in them, the Indian press has reported.

A more serious problem with the SC case is that it depends heavily on Kazmi’s alleged confession of guilt. That confession, consisting of five separate statements between Mar. 6 and 24, is inadmissible as evidence under Indian law on the assumption that police will inevitably coerce those in their custody to make confessions.

Kazmi has denounced all the "disclosure statements" attributed to him as false. He charged in a handwritten petition to the court Apr. 16 that the SC had coerced him into providing his signature on blank pages. He said the police threatened that his family with "dire consequences" if he did not do as they directed.

Except for the very first "disclosure statement" dated Mar. 6, all of them are followed by the handwritten notation "Accused refused to sign".

Most of the five "disclosures" were clearly written by the Special Cell in order to implicate both Kazmi and three Iranians in the bombing plot. The disclosures make Kazmi appear eager to incriminate himself, even though the police account offers no reason for considering Kazmi a suspect, except that his mobile phone number was said to have been called by a Houshang Afshar Irani, who in turn was said to have been contacted by an Iranian involved in the Feb. 14 explosion in Bangkok.

The disclosure dated Mar. 6 and supposedly given to police before Kazmi was even under arrest confesses to having been informed of the plot for a bombing in Delhi by a Seyed Ali Mahdiansadr during a visit to Tehran in January 2011, and having agreed to help the plotters.

Kazmi is also portrayed in the statement as admitting to having been given a Kinetic brand moped by Irani for safekeeping at his home during the first week in May 2011. The police cite that statement as the justification for immediately arresting him and for allegedly seizing the moped from Kazmi’s residence.

There is good reason to believe that the police had already followed Irani’s trail during his two-week visit to Delhi in late April and early May 2011 and had learned before Kazmi’s arrest that he had purchased a used black Kinetic moped at a commercial showroom in Delhi on Apr. 26.

Kazmi’s family and lawyer Mehmood Pracha say the moped taken away from his residence Mar. 6 was not the one identified in the police "seizure memo", which has the same identification number as found on the receipt for Irani’s purchase of the scooter, but one left by Kazmi’s brother two years ago and never used during that time.

The memo for the scooter is signed and dated by Deputy Chief of Police Sanjeev Yadav, the senior police official in the SC investigation, and one other officer. It is signed but not dated by a third officer. The fact that Kazmi’s signature is on the document without any date suggests that he signed a blank sheet of paper.

The Kinetic moped is crucial to the SC effort to link Kazmi to Irani’s alleged reconnaissance of the Israeli embassy to prepare for the bombing, because there is no other evidence except Kazmi’s own discredited "disclosures". But the story about the moped raises serious questions about its plausibility.

It would have made no sense for a terrorist to purchase a moped for that purpose, since Kazmi owned a car that would have made the task far easier as well as more secure.

The alleged turnover of the moped to Kazmi by Irani at the end of his two-week visit makes even less sense, because it suggests that he was planning to use it again for the actual bombing operation. But someone contemplating an operation to affix a magnet bomb to a car would never have considered using a moped for the job. A Kinetic moped normally cannot go faster than 20 miles per hour and is notoriously poor in acceleration, making a getaway for the bomber highly problematic.

In the event, Irani rented a motorcycle when he returned, suggesting that had probably disposed of the moped by reselling it cheaply.

Another sign that the police had trouble linking Kazmi to Irani’s reconnaissance of the Israeli Embassy is the statement attributed to him in one of the "disclosures". Whenever he met with Irani, his supposed disclosure says, "I used to leave my mobile phone at my residence."

That sentence was evidently included to explain why a search of Kazmi’s mobile phone records would not reveal any activity in the area where the "disclosure" claims Kazmi and Irani were carrying out reconnaissance of the Israeli Embassy during Irani’s two-week stay.

The police used the same argument in a 2007 terrorism case in which they had alleged that the accused had taken a trip to Kashmir to collect explosives but had left his mobile phone at his guest house.

The Court did not find the assertion credible, however, and threw out the charges.

*This story is the first in a three-part series, "The Delhi Car Bombing: How the Police Built a False Case", in which award-winning investigative journalist Gareth Porter dissects the Delhi police accusation against an Indian journalist and four Iranians of involvement in the Feb. 13 bombing of an Israeli embassy car.

Gareth Porter, an investigative historian and journalist specializing in U.S. national security policy, received the UK-based Gellhorn Prize for journalism for 2011 for articles on the U.S. war in Afghanistan.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Why Are Hindus from Pakistan Crossing Over to India?

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Zofeen Ebrahim

, Aug 24 (IPS) – Narain Das, a cloth merchant from Jacobabad in northern Pakistan, blesses his lucky stars that he has three sons, aged 18, 16 and 12. “If they were daughters, I, too, would seriously be thinking of migrating from here,” he reflects on the lack of protection his community faces.“Abduction, rape and coerced conversion of our daughters, extortion, blackmailing and kidnapping of businessmen for ransom” are some of the reasons given by former legislator and chairman of the Pakistan Hindu Council, Ramesh Kumar Vankwani, for the recent exodus of the Hindu community to India, reported in the media.

Hindus form 1.7 percent of Pakistan’s population of 180 million.

Muslim Odhano, a Muslim rights activist from Jacobabad, has been observing a huge migration trend of Hindus from Sindh province – where the city is located – over the last four to five years.

“It’s not just the Hindus, even Muslims are continuously harassed by people from the Jakhrani tribe which is carrying out looting, extortion and dacoity (banditry) here. But Hindus are facing a double whammy, because their daughters are not safe here and are being kidnapped and forcibly converted to Islam,” he told IPS over the phone from Jacobabad.

Odhano said the Jakhranis enjoyed complete impunity because of their political affiliation to the ruling Pakistan People Party. The posting of the police is done with the consent of the legislator, who is also from the tribe. “There is a complete breakdown of the law and order situation here,” he said.

Minority communities in Pakistan are facing increased discrimination and harassment, to the extent that many are fleeing their country.

Early last week, the English language daily Express Tribune reported that 60 Hindu families comprising 200-250 people, from Balochistan and Sindh provinces, were leaving the country on the pretext of pilgrimage and seeking asylum in India, on the grounds of religious persecution in Pakistan.

Dismissing the news, Interior Minister Rehman Malik called the migration a “conspiracy to defame Pakistan.” He said the Indian High Commission would be called upon to give reasons for issuing visas in such huge numbers. In addition, he said minorities could not leave the country without the permission of his ministry.

While there has been little recognition of the problem by authorities, there is even less indignation from the nation as a whole.

“There is no outrage because Pakistan has passed into the hands of intolerant bigots,” I.A. Rehman, secretary general of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, told IPS. He talked about “the death of the nation and its replacement with a herd of bloodthirsty morons.”

Mukesh Rupeta, a Hindu journalist based in Jacobabad, said he had bid farewell to as many as “a hundred Hindu families migrating to India in the last year.” He added, however, that the problems faced by the Hindus had been brewing for over a decade. His three brothers and two sisters have already migrated to Indore, in India.

“Most Pakistani Hindus are tight-lipped about leaving, so they go on the pretext of pilgrimage. Once there, they either seek asylum or get their visas extended. In the next fifteen years, they can eventually get citizenship,” he said.

It is not easy to migrate, he said, but the Hindus are left with little choice. “It can take a good five years to settle, but people say they at least have found peace of mind that their family is safe.”

Former legislator Vankwani said many of those migrating belonged to the more affluent business class, who were easy prey for kidnappers and extortionists because of weak security and because they had little political and administrative clout.

“Despite being highly educated and well-qualified Hindu doctors, engineers and business graduates, they find it difficult to land top jobs,” said Sanjeev Kumar, who heads the Karachi-based Pakistan Hindu Seva, a non-governmental organisation that promotes education among less privileged Hindu families.

Rupeta pointed out that while there are Hindu judges and even a few doctors in the armed forces, there are fewer Hindus in top-ranking jobs. “They do not get the positions they deserve on merit.”

The community was also shaken by the recent kidnapping of 11 Hindu traders from Balochistan and Sindh, seven of whom have now been recovered.

Vankwani recalled the years between 1989 and 1991, when Hindus were persecuted. “Thousands left for India, but returned when the situation was under control. Something similar is happening now.” He said he was, however, not sure that they would return this time.

The news of the exodus of Hindus early this month was followed closely by the abduction, conversion and marriage of 14-year old Manisha Kumari to a Muslim boy last week.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan had earlier noted the worrisome increase in kidnappings of Hindu girls who are then coerced into embracing Islam. Motumal Amarnath, a senior lawyer with the Commission, told IPS that at least 20 to 25 Hindu girls are abducted each month and converted to Islam.

But he said he was not sure that the reports of mass migration were accurate.

“I have made enquiries, and while there may have been a few cases, I have been unable to confirm the names or addresses of the people who have left,” he told IPS. He added that “We are Pakistanis first, and this is our motherland. We would never leave. Times are bad for all of us – including Ahmadis and Shias (Muslims).”

“The Jacobabad story may have been exaggerated,” Rehman, the secretary general of the Commission, told IPS. Nevertheless, he added: “There have been persistent reports that Hindus in Sindh and Balochistan are fleeing from Pakistan or are being frightened into migrating, and the trend is unmistakable.”

In a press statement, the Commission said the migration was a reflection of the state’s failure to save its citizens from violence, discrimination and excesses such as forced conversion of young women.

It urged civil society organisations and the media to keep the “spotlight firmly trained on the raw deal these communities” were getting.

“Ahead of the forthcoming elections, the political parties also have an opportunity, through their manifestos, and more than that through their actions now, to articulate their vision for religious minorities in Pakistan,” the Commission stated.

Without naming anyone in particular, Amarnath, the lawyer with the Commission, said there were some “religio-political groups, in cahoots with intelligence agencies,” who were creating a sense of insecurity among the Hindu community.

He also pointed to vested interests that might profit from the migration of affluent Hindus by laying claim to their property, “just like some did with the evacuee property in 1947 (when India and Pakistan became separate states).”

While it is not yet clear if the families who have gone on the pretext of pilgrimage will return to Pakistan once their visas expire, the situation has nevertheless brought into sharp focus the underlying sense of insecurity that has beset the Hindu community.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Indian Communists Lose Marx, and Hope

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Sujoy Dhar

NEW DELHI, Apr 14, 2012 (IPS) – While India’s largest left outfit, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), was licking its electoral wounds, a newly-elected regime in West Bengal was busy chopping chapters on Marxism and the Bolshevik Revolution out of high school syllabi, in celebration of breaking CPI-M’s 34-year stronghold over the state.

The axing of Marx and Engels on Apr. 6 was a highly symbolic gesture in a state that had hitherto been the last standing citadel of mainstream communism in India and signaled the rise of the ragtag Trinamool Congress, now in alliance with the ruling Congress party of India, whose leader, Mamata Banerjee, is desperately trying to uproot a decades-old communist legacy in the eastern state.

The CPI-M’s decline has been swift. Its unpopular decision to forcibly appropriate 1000 acres of farmland on behalf of the motor industry in 2006 led to the communists’ defeat at the polls in May 2011, where they secured just 61 of 294 seats, down from 235 seats in 2006.

The Left Front in India still holds an enclave of influence in a small northeastern state called Tripura, but losses in its showpiece West Bengal, a state of 90 million people, as well as in Kerala, have been colossal.

So when CPI-M leaders met in Kerala’s Kozhikode from Apr. 4-9 for the 20th Party Congress, everyone expected a public declaration of a ‘roadmap’ to regain lost ground and identify new areas of support besides Kerala and West Bengal.

No visible ‘roadmap’

The biggest question on the table was: can communists reinvent themselves in the Indian context after the electoral debacle of the 2011 assembly elections?

Experts believe that the communists still have a big role to play in India, if they can leverage on mass opposition to globalisation and general dissatisfaction with the ruling powers.

However, though the party came out with reports that were self-critical, analysts say the communists only paid lip service to reinventing themselves at the brainstorming session.

No concrete roadmap was visible, they say.

CPI-M’s top decision making Polit Bureau member Sitaram Yechury said the party will toe the same Leninist line, but adapt policies to address India’s specific needs.

"It is not a copy of (the) Chinese or Russian path. We have analysed the trends in socialist countries like China, Cuba, Vietnam, North Korea and South Africa. We are learning from their experiences so that we can implement the good aspects in accordance with the situation here," he said.

The congress also adopted a political resolution to forge a new Left democratic alternative to the ‘neoliberal’ policies of the ruling Congress party in New Delhi and the ‘communal’ agenda pursued by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the two forces that have intermittently ruled India throughout the past two decades.

But many believe these were empty promises, unsubstantiated by specific action plans or targeted policies.

Addressing the needs of the voter base

Monobina Gupta, a renowned journalist, said that even if the Left refuses to accept the globalisation model, they do not have to keep looking back to the Socialist model either.

"There (is) no movement forward. There is only talk about giving new directions but it is couched in the same (old) language and it is superficial," she said.

The congress did not discuss issues close to the heart of CPI-M’s constituency, such as the plummeting standard of education and paltry healthcare, nor the root causes of discontent with the party, such as its policing of communities, interference in family life and land disputes, and its unilateral decisions on industrialisation at the expense of the peasantry.

According to Kolkata-based political scientist Sabyasachi Basu Roy Chowdhury, the only positive outcome of the congress was a sign of maturation, "a semblance of an independent line emerg(ing) out of a colonised mindset", he said, referring to CPI-M’s hitherto blind following of the Russian and Chinese models.

But the Congress neither highlighted issues like caste, prevalent in northern states where the Left has no presence, nor of tribal oppression and rights, an issue championed by the barrels of Maoist guns, he added.

Failure to address these burning concerns partially explains why, over the past three decades, communists have only been able to consolidate themselves in pockets like West Bengal, Tripura or Kerala where caste politics do not dominate the political scene and where liberal ideas already have deep roots.

The party’s patron, former West Bengal chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, the man responsible for wresting farmland from peasants on behalf of the industrial titan Tata Motors, was conspicuously absent at the congress, citing health reasons.

According to an editorial entitled ‘The Man Who Stays Away’, which appeared in the Kolkata-based Telegraph, Bhattacharjee’s decision to stay away sent a strong message to central leaders based in New Delhi who "call the shots using the alibi of democratic centralism."

Bhattacharjee has also openly criticised the "unpragmatic" decisions of central leaders like Prakash Karat.

Yet the congress failed to apologise for interference "by armchair theoreticians" like Karat in the work of mass-based leaders; nor did they present "new faces that carry no previous baggage," said Basu Roy Chowdhury.

"Leaders like Karat (who got a third term as general secretary) or Sitaram Yechury have never been (involved in electoral) politics outside of University or college campuses," he added.

CPI-M’s leaders in Bengal blame losses in the eastern state on Karat’s policies. For instance, his decision to withdraw support for the Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2008, over an India-U.S. civil nuclear deal, brought the Congress party and its breakaway but dominant faction, the Trinamool Congress, together in a victorious alliance at the polls.

However, at the congress last week, CPI-M endorsed the 2008 decision to withdraw support for the UPA, thus missing a chance to truly reflect and re-group before moving forward.

"West Bengal is a unique case of surviving 34 years in power by winning elections," said Gupta. "That model, too, is very flawed, though (it) started initially with (positive) initiatives like land reforms", famously called Operation Barga, in which the rights of poor sharecroppers to own the land they tilled was protected.

In the end however, the communists proved completely incapable of loosening their stranglehold over social functions and were unable to democratise their approach, she added.

"They took over the cultural space and the political space. (There was) daily intimidation and a politics of retribution prevailed along with the arrogance of power," Gupta said.

In the absence of a solid roadmap that carves a new path through India’s distinct social, economic and political terrain, and a projection of new leaders who can bring fresh ideas and vision to the group, talks about reinventing the party will remain a shallow promise.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


FUTURE OF KASHMIRI PANDITS

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy

B.RAMAN

It is 23 years today since Jammu & Kashmir saw the beginning of the ethnic-cleansing of the Kashmiri Pandits, the original inhabitants of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), from their homeland at the instigation of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) by a group of Kashmiri jihadi elements trained, armed and motivated by the ISI.

2. The lead in this act of ethnic-cleansing was initially taken by the Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) and the Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). Other jihadi organisations, which subsequently came into existence after having been trained and armed by the ISI, kept the ethnic-cleansing going till practically all the Kashmiri Pandits were driven out after having been subjected to numerous indignities and brutalities such as rape of women, torture, forcible seizure of property belonging to the Pandits etc.

3. The Pandits, who survived these acts of indignities and brutalities, were forced to leave their homeland and seek shelter in camps for refugees set up in Jammu and Delhi. Within a few weeks of the outbreak of the ethnic cleansing, a majority of the Pandits found themselves reduced to the miserable status of refugees in their own country.

4. As the Pandits and their wifes and children were subjected to indignities and brutalities and driven out of their homeland, the State of India totally caught by surprise watched helplessly and pusillanimously, as the plans of the ISI to change the demographic composition of the Kashmir Valley in order to make it a predominantly Muslim area were sought to be implements by the jihadis trained by the ISI.

5. Neither V.P.Singh, who was the Prime Minister when the ethnic-cleansing was carried out nor any of his successors had the least idea of how to deal with the situation. There were various options available. I would cite only two. The first option was to direct the Army to re-establish Indian sovereignty over Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan as a punitive measure. Pakistan had by then acquired a military nuclear capability, but not a nuclear arsenal. It did not have a satisfactory delivery capability. We could have, therefore, easily re-taken the POK and Gilgit-Baltistan without fear of provoking a nuclear war. The V.P.Singh Government did not exercise this option.

6. The other option was to train and arm the Pandits and ask them to go back and re-occupy their property and fight against the ISI-trained jihadis. This option was carefully examined and given up as not advisable. There were legitimate fears that this option could polarise for ever the relations between the Muslims and the Hindus and play into the hands of the jihadis who wanted such polarisation.

7. The option finally chosen was to look after the Pandits in the refugee camps and other areas where they had settled down with their relatives and wait for the restoration of normalcy in the Valley so that these refugees could be helped to go back, re-establish their ownership of their property and resume a life of dignity as the residents of their traditional homeland.

8. The Pandits have been waiting for 23 years hoping that the day of their return with honour and security to their homeland would come. It has not so far despite the considerable improvement in the ground situation. In the meanwhile, the plight of the Pandits has been slowly forgotten. Everybody sheds crocodile tears over their sufferings, but there is nothing more by way of action. The future of the Kashmiri Pandits as an important dimension of the Kashmir problem is less and less talked about.

9. There was one man, who spent his years of retirement in attempts to ensure that the promises made by the nation to restore the honour and dignity of the Pandits was not forgotten. He took a lively interest in their future and interacted vigorously with leaders of the Government and opposition political parties to see that this dimension of the Kashmir problem was not forgotten.

10. His name was R.N.Kao, a Kashmiri himself, who was the legendary founding father of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW). The Kashmir tragedy broke out five years after he finally retired from public service in 1984. From 1989 onwards till his death in 2002, he devoted a lot of his time to his self-assumed task of restoring the honour and dignity of the Pandits.

11. Since Kao’s death in 2002, the Kashmiri Pandits find themselves orphaned. There is no one at the political or bureaucratic level, who is prepared to come to the forefront, stick his neck out and demand action to restore the dignity and honour of the Pandits. Hopes that the BJP-led Government would pay lively attention to the future of the Pandits were sadly belied. The BJP-led Government was as confused and as inactive as any of the other Governments that had held office since 1989.

12.How to move forward? Two realities have to be kept in mind. Firstly, it is too late in the day to think of identifying and punishing those who were responsible for the ethnic-cleansing. Any ill-advised attempt to do so would complicate the situation further.

13. Secondly, the return of the Pandits to their homeland cannot be enforced unilaterally by the Governments of India and the State. It has to be the outcome of a consensus among different political parties of the State and leaders of different communities. The Government of India has a moral responsibility for working towards such a consensus. Presently, it has not been doing so. It should be made to do so through public pressure. It is time to stop meaningless breast-beating on the plight of the Pandits and their future. It is time to work for concrete ways of enabling their return to their homeland in dignity and honour. ( 19-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

Copyright © 2011 B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG).

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