First Burning Homes, Now Border Patrols

November 21, 2012 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Naimul Haq

COX’S BAZAR, Bangladesh, Nov 20 (IPS) – In late August, Mohammad Saifuddin (not his real name), together with his wife, three daughters and son, fled the carnage of communal violence in western Myanmar’s Rakhine province and headed for the border of neighbouring Bangladesh.Horrified by attacks on the minority Rohingya Muslims by the majority Buddhist community this past summer, the Saifuddin family embarked on what they described as a “horrific” five-day-long journey to reach the nearest border town of Teknaf in the Cox’s Bazar district of southeast Bangladesh, some 200 kilometres away.

Six other families accompanied the Saifuddins on a perilous journey that involved crossing the Mayu River and meandering across hilly forests.

“We moved during the night to evade detection. The journey seemed endless with the children unable to continue walking. At times we had no food or water, and were sometimes completely lost,” Ejaz Ahmed, who brought his wife and family across the border, told IPS.

But instead of arriving on safe soil, as they had hoped, the refugees have met strict border control and a hostile local government, highlighting the precariousness of life for this stateless Muslim population in Southeast Asia.

No rest for refugees

Sparked by reports in late May that three Rohingya Muslim men had allegedly raped a Buddhist Rakhine woman, the violence left thousands of families from the farming and fishing villages of Maungdaw, Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Rathedaung, Minbya and Mrauk U homeless, with no access to food, water, medical supplies or shelter.

Within a month 83,000 out of a population of about 800,000 Rohingyas had fled their ancestral homes in Rakhine. By June, 95 people had been killed.

Some of the survivors now living around the camps in Bangladesh told IPS they had no choice but to flee.

“I saw my neighbours being dragged out of their homes and beaten to death. We fled to escape being killed,” Rehana Begum told IPS.

Mujibor Rahman, a vegetable shop owner in Kyauktaw village, said “On a dark night in June a dozen men attacked our local market where they picked up young Muslim men and (stabbed them) with rapiers. Many died on the spot while others were left moaning on the ground.”

But stories of these “genocide-like” conditions have failed to sway the Bangladeshi government, which has tightened border security at all points of entry.

Authorities have given Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) strict instructions to deny entry to any “intruder” from Myanmar, whether travelling by boat or on foot.

As a result, scores of Rohingyas are said to be languishing on the other side of the roughly 270-kilometre land border in makeshift camps.

BGB Commander for Cox’s Bazaar, lieutenant colonel Mohammad Khalequzzaman, told IPS that since August over 1,300 Rohingyas were sent back through the Tumbru and Ghundum border points.

In total, some 2,600 Rohingyas have been sent back since the first wave of refugees arrived about four months ago. The Home Ministry in Dhaka estimates that number could rise to nearly 10,000 by early next year.

“We have intensified our patrols around the Naf River”, which forms one of the borders between the two countries, Coast Guard Station Officer Commander Badrudduza told IPS.

Armed BGB members and coast guards in speedboats are patrolling the Naf, searching for refugees. But the vast Bay of Bengal, which lies to the south of Bangladesh and southwest of Myanmar, still facilitates several points of entry for those who arrive in dilapidated wooden boats, mostly at night.

“It’s very dangerous to take such a coastal route. Coast guard troops from both countries often shoot at us,” Mohammad Kalam Hossain, who recently arrived in Teknaf with a group of 26 men, women and children from Ponnagyun, a coastal fishing village in south Rakhine, told IPS.

“In the last two weeks more people fled, fearing fresh attacks. The only safe place for us is Bangladesh,” Mohammad Jahangir Alam, a fisherman from Myebon village, told IPS.

Those who do manage to enter Bangladesh are in perpetual fear of being caught by the intelligence or being reported to the police.

Since they speak the local dialect and bear a strong resemblance to Bangladeshi people, many refugees are able to slip into village and town life undetected.

But once caught, refugees receive “no mercy”. “The authorities will force you to disclose the whereabouts of others, and send (everyone) back. That’s why we try to avoid exposure during the daytime,” Julekha Banu, who escaped to Bangladesh in September, told IPS.

Legal quagmire

Though the issue is only now receiving front-page coverage in international media, the plight of Rohingya Muslims dates back several decades, ever since the ruling military junta in Myanmar stripped them of their citizenship.

During a 1978 military assault known as the King Dragon Operation, 200,000 Rohingyas were driven from Rakhine State to Bangladesh, where they lived in squalid refugee camps for decades.

A similar purge in 1991-92 sent another 250,000 Myanmar nationals of Rohingya ethnicity streaming across the border.

Though Burmese officials at the time identified those refugees as their own citizens, political leader Aung San Suu Kyi is now referring to the refugees as “illegal immigrants from Bangladesh”, a fact the Foreign Ministry here has vehemently denied.

A Foreign Ministry spokesperson in Dhaka, speaking under condition of anonymity, told IPS that Bangladesh is already stretched to its limit, with two refugee camps, Ukhiya and Kutupalong, housing over 30,000 displaced Rohingyas. An additional 200,000 Rohingyas are estimated to be living in Bangladesh as undocumented immigrants.

This legal quagmire has effectively rendered the Rohingya people ‘stateless’, with limited access to employment, education, healthcare and public services in either country.

Speaking to IPS on the phone from Geneva, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tomás Ojea Quintana, said, “The situation… is very critical. I am concerned about the Rohingyas who have no homes, food, water or medical care… They require immediate humanitarian aid.”

He added, “Bangladesh should fulfill its obligations under international law by respecting and protecting the human rights of all people within (its) borders, regardless of whether they are recognised as citizens.”

In August Quintana was refused entry into Bangladesh to see the situation here.

Meanwhile, refugees continue to live in limbo, unsure whether they will be allowed to stay or forced to return to a nightmare, which took place “under the nose of the Yangon regime”, according to survivors.

“This is our new home,” a refugee woman in Cox’s Bazar told IPS. “Please let us stay here.”

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


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World Bank Releases Draft Strategy for Myanmar

August 18, 2012 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Carey L. Biron

WASHINGTON, Aug 17 2012 (IPS) – Following on calls by civil society, the World Bank has released a draft summary framework for its re-engagement with Myanmar over the next year and a half. The formal interim strategy is slated to be ready by the end of October.

At the beginning of August, the World Bank, along with the Asian Development Bank, reopened offices in Yangon, following more than a year of widely watched though still disputed political and social reforms in the country. This marks the first formal engagement between the World Bank and Myanmar, also known as Burma, in 25 years, as well as the first ever entry of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank Group’s private-sector arm.

Already the bank has pledged an 85-million-dollar loan, also expected for approval in October, alongside a plan to restructure Myanmar’s debt, worth some 400 million dollars.

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Now, the bank has released a draft summary of what is formally known as an interim strategy note (ISN), “intended to help inform ongoing consultations on the draft ISN”. But the move comes following urging by local and international NGOs and amidst ongoing complaints that the bank has not engaged in adequate consultation with local communities.

Indeed, there is still no local-language version of the ISN, though the bank says that this is currently under preparation.

“To date, local organisations and communities have felt the World Bank’s approach is non-inclusive, sparse on details, lacks transparency and, most worrisome, does not solicit input from the organisations and communities most affected by conflict and development to inform their decision-making process,” Jennifer Quigley, with the U.S. Campaign for Burma, based here, told IPS.

Just prior to the ISN release, four dozen Myanmarese NGOs sent a letter to the World Bank’s headquarters here in Washington, expressing their anxiety that “the Bank’s reengagement activities in our country … have been rushed, secretive and top-down.”

The letter’s writers note having “initiated discussions” with the bank and others since early this year and admit that the current situation of flux and reform “presents opportunities for the World Bank to practice good governance”. But they also characterise the ISN design process as “flawed”.

“While there have been some informal meetings with World Bank staff and some civil society networks … there was never any mention of the ISN, let alone formal consultations,” the letter states.

“[N]o consultation approach, consultation materials, guide questions, location or timeline were ever disclosed. The outcomes of the consultation and the draft ISN are not even posted online.”

This last point has now been rectified, and the bank is openly requesting emailed reactions to the draft ISN.

“The World Bank is and has been consulting widely,” the bank’s Chisako Fukuda told IPS.

“From the ongoing consultations on the draft ISN, we have already heard important views from a range of people in Myanmar, from government, civil society, local and international NGOs working on Myanmar, development partners, U.N. agencies and the private sector, and we look forward to further discussion.”

For their part, the NGO representatives offered a series of detailed suggestions to bank officials, both with regard to how to structure a stronger consultation process and on how to safeguard its re-entry into Myanmar.

These latter include a spectrum of economic, environmental and human rights-related protections based on Myanmar’s “history of rights abuses and corruption … particularly in relation to infrastructure projects, coupled with the country’s history of economic isolation”.

Local complexities

According to the draft ISN, much of the bank’s initial work over the year and a half will revolve around assessments, evaluations and capacity-building, readying the ground for a full country programme to follow.

The document also includes a pointed recommendation to “Move slowly and scale up gradually; invest in developing government’s implementation capacity and fiduciary/safeguard systems”, though this warning may be complicated by a separate reference to “generating quick and tangible impacts in people’s daily lives”.

Perhaps the most contentious section of the ISN will be the bank’s plan to “support the peace process in border areas through community-driven development programs to promote the recovery of conflict-affected communities”. According to Pamela Cox, World Bank vice-president for East Asia and Pacific, in a video released this week, this aspect of the bank’s proposed work plan would receive about five million dollars in funding.

While a focus on these communities is undeniably critical, their engagement is also the most complicated. It is here that locals are most marginalised from the reforms process in Myanmar, most alienated from the state and most suspicious of “development”, often seeing such projects as thinly veiled attempts to take over their resource-rich lands.

In late July, a network of ethnic Karen community-based organisations released a statement criticising the Norway-led Myanmar Peace Support Initiative (MPSI), a high-level project working to assist in negotiating peaceful settlements among the ethnic conflicts still raging in several of Myanmar’s border regions. (In June, the World Bank had pledged to support Norway’s efforts.)

Worryingly, the Karen criticisms sound strikingly similar to those voiced more recently on the World Bank’s ISN design process, decrying the effects of a “lack of transparency and community involvement” in the MPSI.

“Given those problems, we ask MPSI and other proponents of donor-driven peace funds not to undermine our peace process, but rather to move to a more inclusive and transparent process,” the letter stated.

“MPSI should not take shortcuts or sow division within our leadership and our community in a bid to rush the deployment of funds. We understand your sense of urgency, but this process is too fragile to easily survive major mistakes that can be avoided.”

Some groups have recently voiced concerns that international groups, partnering with the government, could effectively squeeze out community-led initiatives in the border areas.

“If the World Bank goes through the government, there are many questions that we need to ask – for example, will only registered groups get opportunities?” Paul Sein Twa, with the Karen Environmental and Social Action Network and one of the lead writers of the recent letter to the World Bank, told the Democratic Voice of Burma, a news website, last week.

“We would encourage them to see many of the unregistered and local groups working in the border regions as well. If the INGOs don’t understand the issues on the ground, there could be many problems.”

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Filed Under: Asia, Development, Featured, Finance Tagged With: ,

OPENING-UP OF MYANMAR

December 6, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy

B.RAMAN

The three-day (Nov.30—Dec 2,2011) visit of Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, to Myanmar— the first by a US Secretary of State since the visit of Johan Foster Dulles in 1955— indicated the growing self-confidence of President Thein Sein that the cautious policy of domestic reforms and external opening-up initiated by him had the support of the serving military officers.

2.This self-confidence came out clearly in the assurances reportedly conveyed by his Government to Mrs.Clinton that the reforms and opening-up are real and will be irreversible. The only threat to the new policy could have come from the serving military officers. The slow pace of the promised release of the political prisoners —200 plus released and about 1600 still in detention— had given rise to speculation regarding possible resistance from serving military officers to the proposed release of all the political prisoners. This speculation still persists since there have been no more releases for some weeks now.

3. However, the Government has been going ahead with its policy of political reconciliation with the pro-democracy forces led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Her National League for Democracy (NLD) has already decided to register itself as a political party to enable it to contest the bye-elections due in the coming months Suu Kyi is widely expected to contest one of them.

4. The policy of gradual opening-up initiated by the Government has three components— release of all political prisoners and relaxation of oppressive laws relating to media freedom and the right to hold public meetings and take out processions, facilitating the de jure induction of Suu Kyi and her NLD into the political process and mending relations with the West to pave the way for the removal of the economic sanctions imposed by them and the resumption of the flow of economic assistance from the West and international financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

5.The visit of Mrs.Clinton so soon after the East Asia summit at Bali in Indonesia last month at which Myanmar and Cambodia were reportedly the only countries to have supported the Chinese stand on the South China Sea issue clearly indicated the keenness of the Myanmar Government to give a new orientation to its foreign policy despite its anxiety not to tread on the toes of China while so doing.

6. China will continue to be an important factor in Myanmar for some years to come because of the economic dependence on Beijing and the close links between the armies of the two countries. A peeved China can play a spoiler by instigating the pro-China military officers trained by the People’s Liberation Artmy (PLA) to resist any aspect of the new policy that may not be palatable to China.

7. Till the Western countries remove the economic sanctions and aid from the West and the international institutions starts flowing in again thereby enabling the Government to dilute its dependence on China, the Government cannot afford to ignore the likely concerns of China.

8. Beijing’s concerns relate not so much to the domestic political reforms as to the decisions of a strategic nature that may be taken by the Government under prodding from the US that could dilute the strategic primacy enjoyed by China in Myanmar. Vietnam and Myanmar are two countries of major concern to China from the point of view of its national security and Beijing will be closely monitoring the developments relating to the relations of the two countries with the US and India.

9. China has already made no secret of its concerns over the decision of the Myanmar Government to suspend the construction of a big hydel power project by a Chinese company in the Kachin State to supply electricity to Yunnan. The Thein Sein Government has taken care to reassure Beijing that there will be no more reversals of past economic decisions of which China was the main beneficiary and that the closer relations with the US will not be at the expense of the primacy enjoyed by China in the Government’s strategic calculation. How to gradually reduce the dependence on China without seeming to do so is a question which would be constantly engaging the attention of the Thein Sein Government. Unless and until substantial economic assistance starts flowing in quickly, the Government will not be in a position to even contemplate any major change in its policies towards China.

10. The lifting of economic sanctions and the flow of substantial economic assistance are not for tomorrow. This became clear during the visit of Mrs.Clinton. Two concrete indicators of forward movement were the decision to re-establish full-fledged diplomatic relations at the Ambassadorial level and a token grant of US $

1.2 million for health care and micro-credit projects.

11. Mrs.Clinton reportedly made the lifting of economic sanctions and the flow of economic assistance conditional on four steps being taken by the Thein Sein Government—the release of the remaining political prisoners, improvement in human rights, a peace process with the ethnic minorities and breaking-off of Myanmar’s relations with North Korea with a full accounting of the alleged assistance from North Korea in the nuclear field.

12. While the first three conditions should not cause any major problem to the Thein Sein Government, the last one relating to North Korea could. Would it cause concern in Beijing? What would be the reaction of the serving military officers to this condition? Would the US insist on the immediate implementation of this condition or would it be prepared to go slow on this keeping in view the sensitivity of this condition? These are questions to which clear-cut answers are not available.

13. On the whole, the US has reasons to be gratified with the visit which went off without any friction and with signs of considerable mutual goodwill. Initially, Mrs.Clinton visited Naypyidaw, the State capital, for meetings with President Thein Sein and the Speaker of the Pyithu Hluttaw (Burma’s lower legislative house) Thura Shwe Mann. She then went to Yangon for two meetings with Suu Kyi.

14. While not many details were forthcoming of Mrs.Clinton’s 45-minutes talks with President Thein Sein, more details were available of her meeting with the Speaker, who seems to be playing an important role in the opening-up process. He was quoted by one of his colleagues as having told Mrs.Clinton that there would be no military coup or military government in the future and that there would be no reversal of the policy of democratic reforms.

15. Suu Kyi said after her meeting with Mrs.Clinton:"We are happy with the way in which the United States is engaging with us. It is through engagement that we hope to promote the process of democratization. Because of this engagement, I think our way ahead will be clearer and we will be able to trust that the process of democratization will go forward. We are prepared to go further if reforms maintain momentum. But history teaches us to be cautious. We know that there have been serious setbacks and grave disappointments over the past decades." (6-12-11)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

Copyright © 2011 B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG).

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the permission of the original author or copyright holder.


Filed Under: Asia, Diplomacy, Featured, Geopolitics, Politics Tagged With: , , ,

Asian Allies Back Burma Uneasily

April 26, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Analysis by Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Apr 26, 2011 (IPS) – Already Burma’s new civilian government poses problems for its Asian allies as it tries to woo the international community. The month-old quasi-civilian administration, led by President Thein Sein has launched a new diplomatic charm offensive in an effort to get international approval for the cosmetic changes that have been introduced under the guise of a new civilian government.

The President’s first priority is to ensure that the region endorses the changes – and in a move to consolidate that, the Thein Sein has already written to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan, renewing their bid to become chairman of the organisation.

It is the first salvo in a new diplomatic offensive to secure regional and international credibility for the new government and reduce its international isolation.

"The Thein Sein regime is desperate for international recognition," said Win Min, a Burmese academic currently based in the United States. "It’s crucial for them to gain credibility and a measure of respectability for their new so-called civilian government."

But this diplomatic offensive on the part of the Burmese leaders will inevitably increase tension between the West, which still supports sanctions against the regime, and Asia, which is keen to integrate Burma into the region’s economy and strategic structures. Burma’s diplomatic initiatives are only likely to intensify the divisions between Asia and the West – especially the U.S. – on how to cope with the problems posed by Burma’s strategic aims.

While the U.S. appointed a special envoy, Derek Mitchell, and the European Union’s revised visa restrictions on government ministers may signal a new preparedness to deal with the new Burmese government, what Burma wants more than tacit recognition, is approval and support, especially from the region.

Immediately after being sworn in as President, Thein Sein wrote to the ASEAN secretariat asking the organisation to accept Burma’s bid to become chairman in 2014.

In 2004, Burma skipped the chance to become chairman in 2006, amid international pressure on the group to reject Burma’s turn to chair the regional bloc. Now the government is anxious to take its turn again – and wants ASEAN’s approval at the forthcoming ASEAN summit in Indonesia next month.

But some of Burma’s neighbours remain wary of being used as a pawn in Burma’s global mission to prove the new government represents a significant change – from a naked military dictatorship to pluralist power structure.

The bottom line for many countries in the region is that Burma has always been a thorn in ASEAN’s side, ever since it joined in 1997, and has been a major obstacle to smoother and deeper relations with its strategic partners, especially Europe and the United States.

The emergence of a new civilian government under President Thein Sein has only complicated the situation, especially as the new Burmese administration seeks to get the region’s approval and bolster its international credibility as a legitimately elected government.

China has already been very supportive – and a senior Chinese political leader was the first international visitor to Naypyidaw, only days after the new regime was sworn in. But it is ASEAN approval that Burma craves.

At the ASEAN summit in Hanoi last year Thein Sein – then under Than Shwe’s instructions – pushed for Burma to be given the chairmanship in 2011. The top general’s aim was to have ASEAN endorse the new civilian government by giving it the ASEAN chairmanship. But the request was rejected – and Indonesia, Cambodia and Brunei were conferred as the next three chairs – leaving 2014 as the earliest Burma could expect to become the head of the organisation.

This was a clear message to Burma that concrete change was expected before the new government could become the chairman of ASEAN. It was the only way we could communicate our irritation at being kept in the dark over the planned elections and political change, the ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan told Inter Press Service in an interview in Hanoi immediately after the meeting.

"ASEAN is very much interested in the peaceful national reconciliation in Myanmar and whatever happens there will have implications in ASEAN, positive or negative," he said.

Now the countries of ASEAN have been left in a deepening quandary. They want to pressure the Burmese government to become more democratic and transparent while maintaining whatever influence they have on the regime.

"We have to continue to engage with the Myanmar government," Thailand’s Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva told correspondents in Bangkok recently. "If we hadn’t that stance, the situation inside the country would be much worse."

Now it seems the issue of Burma’s chairmanship of ASEAN has returned to haunt the organisation – as it did more than ten years ago. But it is the only leverage the countries of the region have over the regime in Naypyidaw.

"Bullying, coaxing and admonishing them has had no effect," an Asia diplomat with long contact with the top Burmese leadership said. "If we push too hard they will simply close the door on us, or worse, leave the organisation unilaterally."

The chairmanship of the organisation may be the only clout ASEAN has with the Burmese regime. But more importantly ASEAN also knows that relations with their main strategic partners – especially Australia, the EU and the U.S. – will almost inevitably be put at risk.

Washington has already chipped into the controversy indicating it would be reluctant to work closely with Burma as its chair. "Obviously, we would have concerns about Burma in any kind of leadership role because of their poor human rights record and domestically," the State Department spokesman, Mark Toner, recently told reporters in Washington.

So Burma’s diplomatic charm offensive may have already further fuelled the furore between the West and Asia over how to handle Burma; and instead of reducing tension between the two spheres, Burma’s so-called civilian government may have only become another bone of contention between them.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2011.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Filed Under: Asia, Diplomacy, Politics, Report Tagged With: ,

BURMA: Military Plays a Civilian-Looking Game

April 11, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Analysis by Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Apr 11, 2011 (IPS) – A new quasi-civilian government has taken over in Burma, but diplomats, analysts and pro-democracy activists are dismissing it as nothing more than "old wine in a new bottle".

Burma analysts believe that strongman Than Shwe has only retreated to the backroom. Than Shwe recently stepped down as commander-in-chief of the Burmese army and relinquished day-to-day control of the country after nearly two decades as head of the military junta.

"He is likely to be pulling the strings from behind the curtain," said the Burmese academic Win Min, now based in the U.S. "He will use his influence behind the scenes, relying on personal patronage and connections."

"If anyone thinks this new government is a step towards democracy they are sadly mistaken," said Maung Zarni, researcher at the London School of Economics.

Yet there are those who see change coming to Burma, though not the sort that most Burmese people are yearning for.

A new system of government has been unveiled, in which parliament will play a subsidiary part, and the executive, headed by newly elected president Thein Sein, will play the leading role.

The new government was formed after elections last November, in which the pro-junta Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won by a landslide. Most western countries, and the pro-democracy movement led by Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, have rejected the results as a sham.

But there has been a clear transfer of power to a new generation. Although mainly military men or former soldiers, most of Burma’s new leaders are under the age of 60 and have a technocratic background. Even the military officers turned politicians, who occupy part of the 25 percent of parliament seats reserved for serving soldiers, have a different outlook.

The new army chief, 55-year-old General Min Aung Hlaing, is reported to be a professional soldier keen on restoring the prestigious image of the army tainted by the repression after the uprising of 1988, and the 22 years of authoritarian rule that followed.

There are other signs of change. On his recent visit, senior Chinese leader Jia Qinglin, the fourth most important man in the Communist Party’s political bureau, did not meet Than Shwe. Jia was instead hosted by Thura Shwe Mann, speaker of the Lower House and vice-president of the ruling party USDP.

But there are other signs that those who have resigned or retired from the army no longer have their military stripes. Soldiers no longer guard the homes of former top military officers, including Than Shwe and the former No. 2 leader Maung Aye, either in the capital Naypyidaw or Rangoon, according to residents in these cities. The police have taken over that duty, as they do in most countries that are regarded as civilian democracies.

This is a sign that Burma is moving, albeit tentatively, towards becoming a civilian-governed society. Of course, what Burma is experiencing now is a transition; it is not yet democracy and it may not yet be significant change. It is something akin to Indonesia under Suharto’s Golkar-led government.

This may not be the sort of democracy that most Burmese people want, but it could be a significant step towards an Asian-style democracy. Even in Thailand the military continues to play a significant political role behind the scenes, and in the recent past shown it was not averse to intervening with force as it did in September 2006, the last time the military staged a coup.

This is the critical hope for Burma – a transition similar to what has happened in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Thailand in the last 20 years.

Of course, worrying signs still remain that Burma’s form of "disciplined democracy" as the military prefer to call it, may not match the minimum standards of civilian-military regimes in the rest of Asia. Too many military men and former soldiers dominate the country’s emerging political scene. Change is impossible as the military mind remains entrenched even in the new political system which pretends to be a civilian administration, according to Maung Zarni of the London School of Economics.

Even if the top generals have retired to the back room, the new crop of officers are effectively clones. "The officer corps are a sub-class of society that has come to view themselves as the ruling class, feeling they are eternally entitled to rule," Zarni said in an interview with IPS.

"Whoever takes their places (Than Shwe and Maung Aye) will not be more enlightened or more progressive, simply because they have all been inculcated with thuggish, racist, sexist and neo-totalitarian leadership values, and only junior generals who are their mirror image have been promoted," said Zarni.

As yet there is still little room for discussion and dialogue – crucial elements of a democracy or an emerging civilian form of government. Parliament is yet to be a fully functioning legislature, though some questions that had been taboo before – ethnic education issues, land confiscation, the release of political prisoners – were put to the president.

The parliament is now in recess and may not meet again for another year, the minimum set by the constitution. But above all there is no role as yet for Burma’s real opposition – Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) – though the opposition leader has asked to meet the new president and government, according to senior sources in the NLD.

But there is good reason to remain skeptical. Change will not happen quickly. "The train has left the station, but we don’t know where it going or how long the journey will be," said a Burmese academic on condition of anonymity.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2011.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Filed Under: Asia, Politics, Report Tagged With: ,

HEALTH-BURMA: Global Fund Back With New Hope

February 26, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Feb 26, 2011 (IPS) – Burma’s transition from an overt military rule to a civilian administration of retired generals is getting a shot in the arm from a former critic of the junta – the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.

The Fund that left the South-East Asian nation in protest more than five years ago is returning this year to Burma, or Myanmar. The move follows three agreements inked last November to finance two-year grants of up to 112.8 million dollars against the three killer diseases.

It marks an increase from the 98.4 million dollars that the Geneva-based humanitarian body had pledged during its first foray. The group pulled out in August 2005 citing political interference in its programmes.

Support for HIV/AIDS initiatives is billed to get the largest share, 46 million dollars, with malaria receiving 36.8 million dollars and tuberculosis (TB) 30 million dollars, according to the Global Fund.

"Burma re-applied for Global Fund grants in 2009 and due to the technical merit of the proposals the board decided to approve them," Marcela Rojo, spokesperson for the Global Fund confirmed in an IPS interview.

The decision coincided with last year’s general election in Burma, the first in two decades. The Nov. 7 poll gained notoriety for its irregularities, prompting critics to say that little has changed since the country came under the grip of oppressive military rule in 1962 after a coup.

"No one really expects the new government to improve the human rights situation, but one practical dividend that must come with the new parliament is increased humanitarian space," says David Scott Mathieson, Burma consultant for Human Rights Watch, a New York-based global watchdog.

"The Global Fund (entry), given its past experience, is going to be an important litmus test in assessing the new government’s sincerity," he added.

The significance of its re-entry is clear to the Fund, as it begins working with its international partners in the country, Save the Children and the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS).

"Strong additional safeguards have been put in place to ensure strict oversight of these grants and to ensure the ability of the Global Fund to move quickly should any irregularities be identified," said Rojo. These include an assurance from Burmese officials that the Fund’s staff will have immediate access to implementation sites.

"Funding for life saving drugs, awareness raising in the most vulnerable populations, and behavioural change campaigns will feature in the package to combat HIV," said Andrew Kirkwood, head of Save the Children’s Burma office, that receives 28.3 million dollars for its AIDS programmes.

"The goal is to reduce HIV transmission and HIV-related morbidity, mortality, disability and social and economic impact," he added in an interview.

Burma reportedly has nearly 240,000 people living with HIV, of which 120,000 need life prolonging anti-retroviral (ARV) drugs. Many of them belong to the three most vulnerable groups: female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and injecting drug users.

Malaria has left an equally troubling trail, with nearly 70 percent of the country’s 57 million people at risk, and 475, 297 already infected, according to health reports. TB is as virulent, with some 200,000 cases reported in 2008, placing Burma 20th among 22 countries across the world topping in the burden of the disease.

Dovetailing with the Fund’s initiative is another international programme, the Three Diseases Fund (3DF), aimed at caring for the sick infected by HIV, TB and malaria.

Set up by a coalition of donors from Australia, Britain, Sweden, the Netherlands and the European Commission, 3DF invested an estimated 100 million dollars when it came to Burma in 2006 after the Global Fund quit.

"These programmes have provided 21,138 people living with HIV antiretroviral medication, detected and treated more than 100,000 cases of tuberculosis and treated over one million cases of malaria," Sanjay Mathur, director of UNOPS in Burma told IPS.

"The challenge to cover all those in need has always been daunting," admits Paul Yon, head of the Medecins Sans Frontier (MSF- Doctors Without Borders) mission in Burma.

"The pulling out of the Global Fund in Myanmar did not make the situation better for the people in need of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria treatment for sure," he told IPS. "MSF has always been advocating for international inputs and to get donors such as the Global Fund back in the country."

The desperate need for foreign funds was brought home by MSF in 2008, when it warned that 76,000 patients needed the life-prolonging ARV therapy but only about 25,000 were receiving first-line drugs.

By then, the military regime’s record on welfare was as notorious as its oppressive grip. The junta had only permitted some 1,800 people to be treated with ARVs in 22 hospitals across the country. The health budget that year to care for people living with HIV was only 200,000 dollars, compared to the nearly 8 billion dollars the regime had earned from natural gas sales from the resource rich country between 2000 and 2008.

"Aid has always been a political issue in Burma and it will be that way now that the Global Fund is back," said a Rangoon-based doctor who spoke on condition of anonymity. "We need this assistance, because it is a lifeline for the patients."

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BURMA: China Stands Behind New President

February 12, 2011 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Feb 12, 2011 (IPS) – China is throwing its weight behind Burma’s predicted political transformation from military rule to a supposed civilian government, deepening its strong economic ties with the resource-rich Southeast Asian nation some have described as Beijing’s "client state".

China was the first to commend Burma’s new leadership, with President Hu Jintao sending his congratulations within hours after Thein Sein assumed the presidency Feb. 4.

The move is seen as "another confidence building measure by Beijing towards its western neighbour at a time when many countries in the region, from India to Southeast Asia, have their eyes on engaging economically with Burma," a Southeast Asian diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

"Beijing wants to have a solid presence on the ground in case the political change leads to a flood of other economic players," the diplomat added.

China’s gestures toward Burma have come even as Burmese national security experts caution against the rush to accept the new government under President Thein Sein, which is seen as no different from the junta, headed by strongman Senior General Than Shwe, it is replacing.

The 65-year-old Thein Sein, a retired army general and former prime minister in the outgoing military regime, was chosen by lawmakers in the first multi- party parliament since the military grabbed power in a coup nearly 50 years ago.

Thein Sein, however, was practically assured of victory in the legislature, of which 80 percent were military delegates and their political allies.

"Unfortunately the civilian head is a puppet. Thein Sein is weak, less ambitious and lacks a powerful base in the army," says Win Min, a Burmese national security expert living in exile in the U.S.

"Nothing really has changed," he told IPS. "Than Shwe will still be the most powerful man, operating from behind Thein Sein."

Junta or no junta, China has in fact already established a footing in Burma, also called Myanmar. Its economic record bears this out: last year, China invested 8.17 billion dollars, mostly in Burma’s hydropower, oil and gas sectors.

This surge in Chinese investments has brought to 12.3 billion dollars Beijing’s total investments, out of the nearly 20 billion dollars in foreign funds for big- ticket projects that Burma has attracted since it opened its economy up to free market policies in 1988.

The ties between China and the most recent Burmese junta, which held power for two decades till the general election in early November last year, was also aided by the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union for Burma’s dismal human rights record.

The U.S. government banned new investments in Burma in 1997, and gradually tightened punitive measures, including limiting financial deals and visa restrictions on members of the junta. The E.U. imposed bans on the sale of weapons to Burma in 1996, followed by visa bans and the freezing of assets of the junta, their families and cronies.

"As long as Western sanctions are in place, China’s economic power in Burma will grow," says Thant Myint-U, a Burmese historian and author of ‘The River of Lost Footsteps’, an account of Burma’s transformation during British colonization. "In the eyes of the (Burmese) government, the cost of Western sanctions is diminishing by the day.

"If the government was willing to ignore Western sanctions ten years ago when it was essentially broke, it’s hard to imagine how they’re going to suddenly pay attention to these same demands now, when (gas and oil) pipeline transit fees, natural gas and jade sales and the sale of electricity of new hydropower plants are set to bring in well over ten billion dollars in revenue a year," Thant told IPS, explaining the trade and investment portfolio dominated by China.

China’s growing influence has prompted Burma’s giant neighbour to its west, India, to also increasingly place security and economic interests over political ones to expand its presence in the Southeast Asian nation.

India has also opted for a tone of accommodation toward Burma’s attempts to gain much needed legitimacy for its civilian-led government.

"The recent elections in Myanmar are an important step in the direction of the national reconciliation process being undertaken by the government of Myanmar," India’s External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna said of the Nov. 7 poll, the first general elections in 20 years, which was plagued by irregularities.

While New Delhi has still not followed Beijing’s lead in praising Thein Sein, the tone of the Indian government’s statement following the elections suggests that "relations with Myanmar have become truly multi-faceted, with cooperation in a range of developmental and other projects in the areas of roads, power, hydro-carbon, oil refinery, transmission lines, telecommunications and information technology," says a South Asian diplomat.

Indian economic cooperation with the Burmese junta began in the mid- 1990s, marking a break from the strong pro-democracy positions it took, backing opposition leader and Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in her struggles with an oppressive regime. China’s growing footprint in Burma was among the reasons for this shift.

"China has majorly expanded in Myanmar and this has facilitated China’s entry into the Bay of Bengal," the South Asian diplomat noted on condition of anonymity. "India needs to have a countervailing presence in Myanmar to ensure its own interests are not jeopardised."

Burma’s neighbours in a 10-member regional bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), have, like India and China, also come on board to accept and give legitimacy to the political culture emerging out of last November’s election.

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BURMA: If Freed, Suu Kyi Would Face New Political Landscape

November 6, 2010 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Analysis by Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Nov 6, 2010 (IPS) – To some in her country she is known as "The Lady," and to others, the more endearing "Aunty Suu." Yet beyond the borders of Burma, which has endured nearly 50 years of oppressive military regimes, Aung San Suu Kyi has been long regarded as the icon of the country’s struggling democracy movement.

But as Burma, or Myanmar, reaches a political crossroads in November, Suu Kyi’s credentials will come under scrutiny. How much power and reach would she still have to rally her followers barely a week after the South-east Asian nation’s first general election in two decades, on Nov. 7?

If the country’s military leaders are to be believed, the 65-year-old Nobel laureate is due to be released from her current seven-year spell of house arrest on Nov. 13.

But the political landscape that Suu Kyi will face will be different from what she encountered during the two previous times she was freed from house arrest, the first in July 1995, and the second in May 2002. This nemesis of Burma’s military leaders has spent over 14 years as a prisoner in her lakeside home in Rangoon, the former capital, since July 1989.

This time, she will no longer have the National League for Democracy (NLD), the political party she helped found in 1988, as a legitimate body to turn to. The NLD was banned this year for deciding to boycott the November poll.

The ban, however, has not stopped this formidable political force from trying to assert its oppositionist role with regard to the November poll. The NLD won over 80 percent of the seats in Parliament at the 1990 general elections, but the junta refused to recognise the results of that vote.

Since August, leaders of the NLD have risked long jail terms by mounting an election boycott campaign across Burma. "We have been telling people they have the right to stay away from the polling booth," Ohn Kyaing, a member of the NLD central executive committee, said in a telephone interview from Mandalay, Burma’s second largest city.

This campaign to remind voters in the cities and the rural areas of the NLD’s relevance was conveyed through the "party’s large network of members," revealed the 67-year-old, who was released in 2005 following a 16-year-jail term for his political activity.

How the NLD’s boycott campaign fares – and how it subsequently deals with the presence of an elected opposition in a semi-legitimate Parliament – will bear watching as indicators of Suu Kyi’s clout after the poll and after her release.

"The campaign asking people not to vote will test the influence the NLD and Daw Suu Kyi still have on the people," said a Rangoon-based analyst, using the honorific ‘Daw’ to refer to the banned NLD’s leader. "It is a fact that they cannot ignore."

"The presence of an elected government and opposition in parliament, no matter how flawed the elections, cannot be brushed aside by her after November 13. They were non-existent when she was last freed," added the analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The NLD and Suu Kyi will have clear competition for the mantle of Burma’s opposition."

Yet Suu Kyi has a "political card only she could play," he revealed. "She has the option of testing and even overturning these new realities with what she did after her last release."

Soon after her second release from house arrest in May 2002, the defiant and widely popular Suu Kyi embarked on a tour across the country, visiting some 135 townships in 12 states and divisions to reach out to both the majority Burman and ethnic minority communities. The tens of thousands of supporters she drew affirmed her pivotal place in Burma’s political landscape, much to the junta’s chagrin. One of these convoys was attacked in May 2003 by pro-junta thugs, resulting in 282 deaths and leading to Suu Kyi’s arrest and detention in her house for the third time.

Yet any hope that Suu Kyi may have of engaging with the more pragmatic military leaders in the junta, as she did during her two previous stints of freedom, has been ruled out by the country’s strongman, Senior Gen. Than Shwe.

"The entire clique within the military that Suu Kyi could do business with is gone. They were cosmopolitan and were comfortable in dealing with foreigners," said David Scott Mathieson, Burma consultant for Human Rights Watch, the New York-based global rights lobby. "She is coming out when there are new generals in office."

Nothing reflects this shift more than the political fate of Gen. Khin Nyunt, former spy chief of the junta. As the junta’s Number Two – and viewed by some as a "pragmatist" – he was the main interlocutor for the military during talks with Suu Kyi.

Today, Gen. Khin Nyunt is under house arrest, following the purge that Than Shwe launched to go after Khin Nyunt loyalists.

Likewise, the reclusive junta leader’s moves will be key how much political space Suu Kyi will have if she is indeed freed later in November.

Will her third encounter with freedom be open-ended or entail limits, including restrictions on travel within Rangoon, as was the case when she was first freed in July 1995 after six years under house arrest?

"What they (the junta) do when Suu Kyi is released will send a message," says Andrew Heyn, Britain’s ambassador to Burma. "She is well informed and committed and wants to stay involved."

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POLITICS-BURMA: On Poll Eve, To Vote or Not to Vote

November 5, 2010 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Mon Mon Myat

RANGOON, Nov 5, 2010 (IPS) – Near markets, bus stops and busy areas in this city, groups of young people are busy handling out leaflets with a photograph of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and her message saying "people have a right not to vote if they don’t want to".

The leaflets are a call to boycott Burma’s general election on Nov. 7, the first such poll to be held in this military-ruled South-east Asian country since 1990.

Those distributing the handouts are young people with the National League of Democracy (NLD), Suu Kyi’s party that was disbanded and many of whose members are pushing for voters to stay away from voting precincts on Sunday.

"I want to spread Aunty’s (Suu Kyi’s) message among people," said 26-year-old Maung Maung (not his real name), who is part of the NLD youth’s campaign on voters’ rights ahead of the polls in different townships here in Rangoon division.

Maung Maung and his group continue to distribute their campaign materials, well aware that delivering any kind of political message without permits in public areas is against the election law.

Whether the boycott campaign will convince a sizable number among the 30 million eligible voters in this country of more than 53 million people remains up in the air. But there continues to be mixed sentiments about the vote’s utility as a tool against curbing the power of the military that has ruled this country for some five decades.

"If people are not going to vote, we’ll lose and then USDP (the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party) would take the rest of the ballots," explained Thaung Tun, a candidate for a party that has broken away from the NLD and who disagrees with the boycott call. "If we lose, we can’t make any voice for the people in Parliament," he said.

State media, including ‘The New Light of Myanmar’ newspaper, have been busy saying that "to vote in an election is the right as well as a duty of every citizen".

Whether to contest or take part in the election or not has been a divisive issue not just among voters but the different opposition groups.

Candidates from opposition groups, making up less than 30 percent of the number of total candidates, are going to face the two strongest parties with links to the military – the military’s proxy party or the USDP, and the conservative group National Unity Party (NUP), which has its origins in the Socialist Party. Together, the two parties account for 70 percent of candidate seats.

Against this backdrop, there are those who are giving the boycott call a serious hearing.

"People are interested when they saw (Daw) Aung San Su Kyi’s photo. They ask which group we are from and ask whether they should vote or not," explained Maung Maung from the NLD Youth.

Four families of retired government officers support Suu Kyi’s boycott call and agree that the "unjust electoral laws" cannot lead to a genuine reflection of the public will, and have thus arranged to go a on picnic on election day. "This is a way we can boycott the election and show our support to Daw Suu," said a 68-year-old retired government officer from the group.

For his part, 42-year-old independent candidate Saw Naing tries to get voters’ attention by using the image of the national hero Aung San, Suu Kyi’s father who led the country’s independence movement.

Saw Naing’s old green jeep has a photo of Aung San in front, and a patriotic song plays loudly while his campaign pamphlets are being distributed. "It’s just giving respect to our national leader. I just want people to remember him," said Saw Naing.

In truth, images of these two key figures, father and daughter who have played historic roles in Burma, are being employed by groups for and against taking part in the Nov. 7 vote to take on military leaders.

While some may not want to vote, many government employees and citizens fear intimidation by the military if they do not head for the polling stations on election day.

"To give respect to my department head, I have to go to the polling station whether I want to vote or not," said a university lecturer who did not want to be named.

A 52-year-old woman in Mayangone Township will cast her ballot because "I don’t want local authorities to recognise me as someone who is against the elections, but I won’t vote for any party."

Said Khin Mar New, a homemaker from Saw Naing’s constituency: "There will be no difference before and after the elections. They (the military) will just keep power."

A political prisoner, known as blogger Nay Phone Latt, passed a message to voters during his mother’s visit to his Karen State prison. "Mom, you don’t need to vote if you don’t want to. But please tell other people who want to vote to cast the ballot for any other party except for two: USDP and NUP," he said. "If one person from our side could go to Parliament, we can at least hear what is happening in the Parliament."

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BURMA: Poll A Showdown between Dead Strongman and Living One

October 29, 2010 by

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

By Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Oct 29, 2010 (IPS) – The ghost of military-ruled Burma’s first strongman, Gen Ne Win, has returned to haunt the South-east Asian nation’s current junta leader, Senior Gen Than Shwe, as the country heads for its first general election in two decades on Nov. 7.

In a bizarre twist, the candidates loyal to the late Ne Win, who ruled Burma with an iron fist from a 1962 coup till 1988, are being cast in some quarters as a welcome force for expanding the very restricted political space in place since the early 1990s, when Than Shwe came to power.

The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), backed by Than Shwe, has nominated over 1,100 candidates for elections to the national and regional parliaments.

The National Unity Party (NUP), supported by Ne Win loyalists who lost political favours and power after Than Shwe became the junta leader, has nominated 999 candidates to contest for seats in the national and regional bodies.

These two political behemoths, both with ties with the junta leaders in Burma, have dwarfed the political parties with more credible democratic credentials, such as the National Democratic Force (NDF), the Democratic Party of Myanmar (DPM) and the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDF).

The NDF has 163 candidates running, while the DPM has 48 and the SNLD 156.

Little wonder why the Nov. 7 polling day is being described by political observers in Mandalay and Rangoon, the country’s two largest cities, as a looming showdown between the loyalists of the two strongmen.

The NUP is in fact openly challenging the USDP on the campaign trail, these observers told IPS. "The NUP is trying to draw a distinction between themselves and the current military government," said one Rangoon-based analyst. "Just recently they told voters that they are not ‘political monsters’ and have learnt from their past mistakes."

"Some of their policies have even struck a chord amongst sections of the middle class who want change," he added. "They are providing an avenue for change within restricted boundaries."

The NUP’s emergence as the only formidable challenger to the ruling junta’s party has not been lost on the Burmese media in exile, which have, till now, been trenchant critics of the Ne Win and Than Shwe regimes.

"The National Unity Party could upset the ruling regime’s plans for an overwhelming victory by the Union Solidarity and Development Party," wrote ‘The Irrawaddy’, a current affairs website run by Burmese journalists in exile in Thailand. "(The NUP leader’s recent) comment that (his party) would not restrict press freedom in Burma except in the case of a national emergency impressed many political observers inside the country."

Such a nod towards press freedom had even prompted some local analysts to suggest that the NUP "might be willing to form some sort of an alliance with smaller pro-democracy and ethnic parties," ‘The Irrawaddy’ added.

This marks a major shift in respectability from the early years of the NUP. At the last general election in 1990, Ne Win’s loyalists, drawn from his governing Burma Socialist Programme Party, were reduced to having only 10 seats in the over 480 seats up for grabs in the national parliament.

This stark rejection by voters of Ne Win’s oppressive rule helped steer the rise of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party. The NLD won 82 percent of the seats in that poll but was denied the right to govern after the military regime refused to recognise the results of that vote.

The NLD, led by Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, currently in her 14th year under house arrest, refused to contest this year’s poll. This move, which saw the party banned subsequently, led to a faction of its members leaving to form the NDF.

Than Shwe’s plans to avoid a political tidal wave like the one that struck Ne Win’s NUP in the 1990s have been writ large ahead of the November elections. Of the 440 seats in the national legislature, 110 seats have already been reserved under the Constitution for non-elected military officers.

"The main point of the election this time is that the pro-military party just needs to win 166 elected seats," said Win Min, a Burmese national security expert. "Of course Gen. Than Shwe may want to win more than 82 percent of the seats to beat the NLD’s 1990 election record for his legacy."

The magic number of 166 elected seats that Than Shwe needs will, with the 110 military appointees in the parliament, secure him support in the new legislature if he wants to be chosen as the civilian president, Win Min told IPS. "There is no minimum requirement of a 50 percent voter turn out like in 1990, making it easier for the pro-military candidates to win even if many people do not vote."

These measures, together with a slew of oppressive measures on the smaller pro-democratic parties in the race, have led analysts and even regional governments to dismiss the November poll as a sham election and a farce.

But little of that has deterred the NUP, whose members, including former military officers, want to challenge Than Shwe’s attempt to use the poll to assert that his legacy is more significant than Ne Win’s, says an analyst from Mandalay. "November’s election is becoming a battle between a dead general and a living one," he pointed out.

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