Not Yet Banking on the BRICS

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

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Congress of South African Trade Unions says a BRICS Development Bank must promote development and industrialisation and job creation in the country. Pictured here is Pal Mfunzana, a resident from the poverty-stricken township of Diepsloot, in Johannesburg. Credit: Chris Stein/IPS

John Fraser

JOHANNESBURG, Mar 28 (IPS) – Although leaders of the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa group agreed to launch a new development funding institution, giving the club a major infrastructure boost, some here are sceptical about the potential impact of the new bank.“I don’t think it will have much impact in South Africa, where capital is not the problem, but policy is,” Frans Cronje, deputy chief executive officer of the South African Institute of Race Relations, told IPS. The fifth BRICS summit was held in Durban, South Africa from Mar. 26 to 27.

There are concerns that some of the key details still remain to be agreed upon and announced, and also because the operation of the new BRICS Development Bank will need to be closely monitored if it is to convince observers that it will have a real impact on funding development.

“This new bank will be way smaller than the World Bank or International Monetary Fund (IMF), so it will have a marginal impact compared to those institutions,” Cronje said.

It has been suggested that all BRICS nations will initially be paying 10 billion dollars towards the seed capital of the bank, and Cronje said that it is “odd” that South Africa should be paying its full share when it has just two percent of the GDP of the BRICS.

“Is this a vanity project for South Africa?” he questioned. “Is shifting the balance away from the World Bank and the IMF simply ideological romanticism

It is already clear that the bank will focus on infrastructure projects, but there is still uncertainty about several details, including the geographical footprint of the bank, its site and the currency or currencies in which it will operate.

“The first focus of the bank is on infrastructure, which is as it should be,” independent Johannesburg economist Mike Schussler told IPS.

“There will be discussion on where you put the money, as South Africa, Brazil, Russia and India all need infrastructure, and there will be a shortfall of funds.

“So the challenge will be on how to commit the initially inadequate resources.”

Memory Dube, a senior researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs, a non-governmental research institute, described the agreement to go ahead with the bank, which was taken by BRICS finance ministers in Durban on Tuesday Mar. 26, as “significant” in the evolution of the BRICS grouping into a solid and sustainable alliance.

“It provides an institutionalisation for the BRICS. Until now, it has been a loose grouping, but this new bank will glue the members together.

“This is an actual institution that belongs to the BRICS and will be run by the BRICS. There is now no doubt that the BRICS will exist 10 years from now, 20 years from now – there is something tangible,” she told IPS.

Spokesperson for the Congress of South African Trade Unions, Patrick Craven, was guarded about the new bank.

“It is too early to assess it,” he told IPS. “We want a lot more detail on how the bank will operate and who will be in charge of it.”

“We will insist its mandate is very different to that of the World Bank and the IMF – which are used to reinforce the domination of the North American and Western European economies and have had a very negative effect on developing countries, by imposing constraints on lending.

“A BRICS Development Bank must promote development and industrialisation and job creation.”

Entrepreneur Sandile Zungu is one of the five South African delegates who sit on the new BRICS Business Council, which was also launched at the Durban summit.

“Often infrastructure projects in South Africa and in the rest of Africa have the potential to benefit one or more of the BRICS countries,” he told IPS in a telephone interview from Durban.

“With the new BRICS Development Bank, these projects will have a better chance of getting funding than they would have done from the World Bank. There will be a wider pool of funding.”

Dube said she was keen to learn about the site of the new BRICS Development Bank, as this had not been announced at the time she spoke to IPS from the summit on Mar. 27. South Africa has been keen to host it, but China is also a strong candidate.

However, Zungu said that he believes South Africa is the strongest candidate among the BRICS nations to host the new institution.

“Arguably, South Africa has the best financial services system of all the BRICS countries, and the World Bank says we have the best.

“We are also closest to the area of greatest need for infrastructure development.”

Dube also expressed an interest in seeing a lot more detail on other issues concerning the new bank. “If they structure it right, it might make a real difference,” she suggested.

“But the devil will be in the detail.”

She said it would be important to see the funding structure of the new bank.

“We have heard each BRICS country will contribute 10 billion dollars,” she said. “But will that be enough? Will further funding be raised on the open market? I also want to see more detail on the BRICS Development Banks’ decision-making structure.

“We also need to see the regions in which it will operate – will it be for all developing nations, or for the BRICS members only?

“Then we need to look at spending priorities, and what currency it will operate in. Will it be the United States dollar, or will the BRICS nations decide it must operate in their own currencies?”

The political hurdle has been overcome with the decision in Durban to found the BRICS Bank.

However, the credibility of the bank itself and of the BRICS alliance now rests on the skill and efficiency with which it is brought to life and on the degree to which it can make a real difference to development in the BRICS nations and beyond.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2013.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Cyprus Readies for Reopening of Banks

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

AJ Correspondents

DOHA, Qatar, Mar 27 (Al Jazeera) – Cyprus is finalising capital control measures to prevent a run on the banks by depositors anxious about their savings after the country agreed a painful rescue package with international lenders.With banks due to reopen on Thursday, Finance Minister Michael Sarris said he expected the control measures to be ready by noon (1000 GMT) on Wednesday.

"I think they will be within the realms of reason," Sarris said in a Cyprus television interview, without going into details.

Cypriots have taken to the streets of Nicosia in their thousands to protest against the bailout deal they fear will push their country into an economic slump and cost many their jobs.

European leaders said the deal averted a chaotic national bankruptcy that might have forced Cyprus out of the euro.

A banking official said on Wednesday that new controls will include restrictions on large-scale transfers from Bank of Cyprus and Laiki, two of the country’s largest and troubled lenders, which are both being restructured.

Authorities are looking to increase the daily withdrawal limit from 100 euros to 300 euros, for at least a week until the situation stabilises, according to the official who spoke to AP news agency.

Banks will have heightened security across the island nation for the "comfort of both bank staff and clients, with the police also present", according to John Argyrou, the Cyprus managing director of private security firm G4S, which will deploy 180 of its staff to all bank branches.

"There may be some isolated incidents, but it’s in our culture to be civil and patient, so I don’t expect anything serious," said Argyrou.

Run on banks

"Banks will open on Thursday … We will look at the best way to limit the possibility of large sums of money leaving, and not imposing punitive conditions on the economy, businesses and individuals," Sarris said in the interview.

The central bank governor said earlier that "loose" controls would apply temporarily to all banks.

Earlier, the finance minister said they could be in place for weeks. Banks have been shut since final bailout talks got under way in mid-March.

Russia, whose citizens have billions of euros in Cypriot banks, cautioned Nicosia against imposing onerous controls on healthy banks.

"If there are such measures, this will not foster trust but only provoke additional problems for participants, depositors," Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, in South Africa for a summit of the BRICS emerging powers group, told reporters late on Tuesday.

State-controlled Russian bank VTB has a subsidiary in Cyprus, Russian Commercial Bank, which has not been affected by the bailout deal.

Siluanov cautioned that Russian willingness to restructure and extend a 2.5-billion euro loan to Cyprus in 2011 would depend on the island’s decision on capital controls.

"We will discuss (restructuring of the loan) in the context of the decisions the parliament adopts," he said. "We are prepared to discuss within these parameters."

Bank executive sacked

Meanwhile, the chief executive of the Bank of Cyprus, the island’s biggest lender, was sacked by the central bank governor as part of the bailout deal, state media said.

Yiannis Kypri was fired on the instructions of the so-called troika of the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, the Cyprus News Agency reported.

The terms of the 10-billion euro (13-billion-dollar) rescue have stirred popular anger within Cyprus at the country’s partners in the EU, notably Germany, the bloc’s main paymaster and fiercest advocate of austerity.

On Tuesday, up to 3,000 high school students protested at parliament, in the first major expression of popular anger since the bailout was agreed in the early hours of Monday morning in Brussels.

The deal largely side-stepped parliament, and has triggered opposition calls for a referendum.

"They’ve just got rid of all our dreams," one student, named Thomas, said.

Outside the central bank, about 200 employees of the country’s biggest commercial lender, the Bank of Cyprus, demanded the resignation of central bank governor Panicos Demetriades, chanting "Hands off Cyprus" and "Disgrace".

*Published under an agreement with Al Jazeera.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2013.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Is Uzbekistan’s Economy Going into a Tailspin?

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Kitty Stapp

TASHKENT, Feb 11 (EurasiaNet) – Uzbekistan has introduced sweeping new banking and import regulations that appear designed to keep hard currency from leaving the country.Observers say residents and entrepreneurs should expect a bumpy ride in the coming months, as the cumbersome new measures are expected to drive up prices for basic goods and encourage an expansion of the shadow economy.

At the beginning of February, new rules regulating foreign currency exchange basically made it impossible for Uzbeks to get their hands, legally, on hard currency. Under the new rules, residents can only trade Uzbek sums for virtual hard currency loaded onto plastic banking cards for use abroad or online, not cash.

At the same time, authorities began arresting the currency traders who operate in a thriving black market, where the U.S. dollar fetches approximately 40 percent more than banks offer in exchange for sums.

While the exchange regulations received widespread attention, on Jan. 30 customs authorities also quietly introduced new import rules requiring mountains of paperwork. According to the State Customs Committee, importers must now submit "preliminary" customs declarations for all imported goods 30 days in advance.

Along with the preliminary declaration, importers are also required to procure certificates showing goods’ compliance with Uzbekistan’s strict and oft-changing hygienic, conformity and veterinary standards. The new steps add more paperwork to an already burdensome process.

And in Uzbekistan – routinely classified as one of the most corrupt countries on the planet; Transparency International ranks it tied for 170th out of 174 countries surveyed in its most recent Corruption Perceptions Index – paperwork often gives authorities a chance to find errors, perceived or real, and solicit bribes.

Officially, the new customs regulations stated aim is to "further fundamentally improve the business environment and provide greater freedom to entrepreneurship" and to "liberalize" foreign trade. But with the regulations announced so suddenly, after no public discussion, few are taking authorities at their word.

Instead, some regional media outlets have suggested authorities are trying to keep hard currency from leaving the country; others speculate that authorities are protecting the business interests of a well-connected individual or family (not unheard of in Uzbekistan).

Either way, analysts say it is difficult to imagine Uzbekistan’s limited domestic manufacturing base offering substitutes of sufficient quantity and quality to offset the expected price fluctuations as goods disappear from store shelves.

Import restrictions in Uzbekistan are hardly news: In 2000, Tashkent banned individuals from importing goods for resale. In 2009, the maximum value of goods that could be imported duty-free for personal consumption was reduced to 10 dollars per person.

These rules turned travel abroad for the average Uzbek into a troublesome experience. Long lines are now routine at border crossings, as customs officers sift through bags to identify items subject to customs duties or seizure (or another chance to solicit a bribe).

Because high import tariffs already make consumer goods in Uzbekistan expensive, many Uzbeks have long preferred to shop in neighbouring countries such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. This practice is growing increasingly difficult under the existing regulations.

Unsurprisingly, when it comes to facilitating cross-border trading, the World Bank recently ranked Uzbekistan as the worst performer out of 185 countries surveyed in its Doing Business report for 2013.

Coupled with the latest foreign currency restrictions, analysts believe the new import regulations aim to prevent Uzbekistan’s foreign exchange and gold reserves from dwindling. (By limiting imports, the idea is the authorities are limiting the outflow of precious foreign cash and gold. Most analysts consider current account statistics unreliable).

Tashkent does not publish data on its reserves, or what share of its export earnings are channeled into replenishing reserves. But given the government’s reluctance to borrow, the restrictions on the circulation of hard cash suggest Tashkent is having trouble balancing the books.

"Coming on the back of the recent changes to currency regulations, one reason for the import restrictions is likely to be that the government is seeking to protect the country’s foreign-exchange reserves," Anna Walker, a Central Asia analyst at the London-based Control Risks consultancy, told EurasiaNet.org.

"It also probably reflects a long-standing policy of encouraging import-substituting industrialization, though this policy has failed to foster a dynamic, domestic industrial sector that produces goods capable of competing with imports."

Walker doubts the Uzbek government can achieve its economic goals by administrative fiat alone.

"Given the prevalence of imported goods in most sectors, it is highly unlikely that domestically produced goods will be able to substitute for imports. The government’s attempts to attract foreign investment in sectors other than natural resources have been largely unsuccessful, and the domestic manufacturing sector does not have the capacity to fill the gap left by the new import restrictions," Walker added.

The stifling import and currency regulations often force Uzbek entrepreneurs to operate in the shadows. Privately, many confess they can only survive by bribing tax and customs officials.

One entrepreneur, a jeweler, who agreed to talk to EurasiaNet.org on condition of anonymity, said he thought any new import restrictions were done for one reason only: “To prevent the outflow of foreign currency from the country."

The new restrictions are likely to backfire, driving up prices and pushing more entrepreneurs into the shadow economy, Walker said: "The immediate result is likely to be an increase in prices, as the availability of goods diminishes, as well as growth in the shadow economy as consumers and retailers attempt to get round the restrictions.”

While there has not yet been a visible impact on the prices for essentials in the capital, Tashkent, the restrictions have started hurting supplies. One shopkeeper told EurasiaNet.org that he was having trouble sourcing chocolate and candy. While other items were still in stock, he explained, his local suppliers have stopped accepting and delivering orders.

Editor’s note: Murat Sadykov is the pseudonym for a journalist specialising in Central Asian affairs.

This story was originally published by EurasiaNet.org.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2013.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


IFC Under Fire on Environment, Social Safeguards

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Carey L. Biron

WASHINGTON, Feb 08 (IPS) – Campaigners are seizing on a new internal audit of financial-market lending by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank arm that engages in private sector investment, pointing to unusually stark criticism of the institution’s commitment to due diligence.The report warns that the institution’s oversight mechanisms include no capability to assess whether that lending – which comprises at least 40 percent of IFC portfolios, valued at some 20 billion dollars – is helping or harming local communities and overall development indicators.

In response, on Friday five international watchdog organisations, including Oxfam International and the Center for International Environmental Law, collectively called for “a fundamental overhaul of World Bank lending to financial markets actors”.

“For the first time, we’ve had an official body say this is a fundamentally problematic way of operation, that the IFC is missing the entire point of what these policies are for,” Peter Chowla, coordinator of the U.K.-based Bretton Woods Project (BWP), a watchdog and one of the organisations calling for an overhaul, told IPS. “That puts a far larger onus on the IFC to respond effectively.”

Made public this week, the audit is the result of a year of research by the Compliance Advisor/Ombudsman (CAO), an independent body charged with response to complaints from communities affected by IFC and other World Bank Group projects. The document focuses on the institution’s use of “financial intermediaries” – third-party entities such as banks or microfinance groups that use IFC money to engage in development projects.

According to the CAO, “A large portion of IFC financing is currently channeled to private sector projects in developing countries and emerging markets through third party entities.”

The CAO and other analyses suggest this practice has risen in recent years for the IFC and for other multilateral institutions, public and private.

“The use of financial intermediaries was fairly well hidden over the past decade, but they’ve been used increasingly in recent years as both civil society and governments have become more focused on project transparency,” Stephanie Fried, executive director of the Ulu Foundation, which focuses on international financial flows, told IPS.

“Yet as we see a rise in the use of these opaque bodies, we also see the IFC moving away from due diligence requirements. It’s simpler, after all, and they don’t need to be so accountable.”

Fried calls the new report “shockingly candid”, and notes that its findings will have “tremendous implications for the way that global finance is done.”

Do no harm

The crux of the CAO’s findings is twofold. First, in important commitments further strengthened last year, the IFC’s current stated policy is that its investments will not only “do no harm” but that they will actively “do good”, meaning improve development outcomes.

Second, in projects in which the institution is working through a financial intermediary, the IFC requires that entity to set up a system, known as an ESMS, aimed at ensuring that stringent environmental and social safeguards (“do no harm”) are met. However, while the IFC does make certain that the ESMS is in place, it does not engage in further analysis of the effects of this system on the ground – leaving that responsibility to the intermediary.

The CAO characterises this set-up as a “box-ticking exercise”, and warns that the mere creation of the system could become the end result, rather than enhancing environmental and social safeguards on the ground.

In a formal response, the IFC management does not deny that this is the way the system is currently constituted.

“IFC does not evaluate all information at the sub-client” level, the response reads, referring to project implementers below the financial intermediaries. “We do not consider this necessary or efficient,” as the intent is to have the intermediaries “manage this” through the ESMS.

The response also notes that IFC does “expect our (financial intermediary) partners to maintain all the requisite information about all their sub-clients … and this is evaluated by IFC as part of our on-going supervision process.”

Yet according to the CAO findings, BWP’s Chowla points out, even this system appears to break down fairly often, as in 35 percent of cases the IFC reportedly is unable to verify that its direct partners have implemented these safeguards.

Perhaps most damning in this regard, some 60 percent of “sub-clients” were found to have failed to improve their environment and social practices following IFC investment – which, CAO notes, “is where IFC seeks to really have an impact”.

Other models

According to a statement sent to IPS from the IFC’s Washington headquarters, the institution’s use of financial intermediaries allows it to provide access to finance for millions of individuals and micro, small and medium enterprises that the IFC would otherwise not be able to reach directly.

“IFC focuses on helping our (financial intermediary) clients improve their capacity to assess and manage the environmental and social risks inherent in their own financing activities – in line with IFC’s Sustainability Framework,” the statement says. “As the CAO report noted, nearly all of our clients comply with these standards.”

Armed with the new audit findings, however, campaigners are stepping up criticism of the Sustainability Framework itself. This is particularly important given that the World Bank recently began a widely watched reassessment of its environment and social safeguards, for which some worry that the IFC Sustainably Framework could act as a model.

“The World Bank has made it quite clear that it wants to streamline the safeguards process, to use more country systems to measure compliance,” BWP’s Chowla says.

“But we need to see whether they will take on board the message that using country systems does not mean being ignorant of results – that they still need to be accountable for results.”

Indeed, other due diligence models do exist. Stephanie Fried points particularly to those used by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).

“Unlike IFC, the ADB and OPIC have insisted on maintaining responsibility for ensuring that things are being done responsibly under their investments, looking not only at the clients to whom they’re giving cash but also at the projects on the ground,” Fried says.

“That’s night and day compared to the IFC. We need to see compliance with the ‘do no harm’ mandate, and it appears that would be a complete redoing of the way in which the IFC is operating at the moment.”

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2013.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


World Bank Unmoved on Auditor’s Criticism of Forest Policy

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Carey L. Biron

WASHINGTON, Feb 06 (IPS) – Officials at the World Bank are forcefully rejecting a new internal evaluation that is highly critical of the institution’s decade-long forest policy, expressing their “strong disagreement” with some assertions in the report.The assessment, written by the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), the World Bank Group’s auditor, warns that expectations for poverty reduction as envisioned in the bank’s 2002 Forest Strategy “have not yet been met”. The report is particularly critical of the bank’s use of mass-scale logging concessions as a forest-management strategy and of a lack of projects that promote community involvement in the oversight of forests.

While the full IEG report has not yet been made public, draft copies of both the report and management responses were scheduled to be discussed at the bank’s Washington headquarters on Monday. (Leaked copies of both documents can be found here and here.)

The draft response from the bank’s management warns that the audit “contains a number of inaccuracies and misleading assertions that are based on generalizations about the forest sector rather than on an evaluation of the (World Bank Group’s) own work in this sector.”

In addition to expressing frustration with the IEG’s research methodology, the bank’s responses are particularly vociferous on the charge that its forest governance reforms – particularly regarding concessions – may not have led to sustainable and inclusive development.

The management warns that bank concession policies should not be looked at outside of their comprehensive context as they constitute “one part of a suite of reforms”, and that “an extensive body of literature” already exists on concession reforms, for which further re-appraisals would offer “little added value”.

In addition, the bank says that the IEG missed out on some particularly important reforms, such as a new requirement mandating third-party verification of sustainable forest management prior to any bank investment. Nor does the evaluation substantively explore the contributions of a bank initiative called the External Advisory Group on Forests, aimed at offering monitoring and oversight of the bank’s forest investments.

Both the frankness of the IEG report and the force with which the World Bank management have responded have surprised some observers.

“The evaluation was surprisingly forthright, but it’s important to realise that this issue is particularly touchy as the bank attempts to position itself as a major player in responding to global climate change,” Joshua Lichtenstein, forest programme manager with the Bank Information Center, a Washington watchdog, told IPS.

“The corollary here, however, is that the bank’s approach of focusing on industrial timber concessions doesn’t appear to have worked. While there’s been some progress in improving the legal framework, the IEG is saying that those programmes have led neither to sustainable, inclusive economic development nor to decreases in deforestation or sustainable use of forests.”

Centrality of concessions

As put in place in 2002, the World Bank’s Forest Strategy was aimed at both poverty alleviation and the safeguarding of local environments.

One important component of this new approach is the use of industrial logging, for which the 2002 strategy lifted a previous ban. By focusing instead on reforms such as increased management and certification activities, the policy aims at providing both local employment and national-level revenues.

The IEG evaluation, however, is clear in its view that this approach does not appear to have delivered results.

“We’re in no way opposing World Bank involvement in the forest sector – indeed, the bank has lots of small, community-driven development projects that are successful,” Lichtenstein says.

“But that’s kind of the point: there are other models, good alternatives, available, and the bank now needs to give up on this big industrial logging concession model. That was clearly important and worth trying, but it hasn’t panned out.”

By inserting itself in the logging sector in tropical forests, the World Bank had hoped it could bring its good offices to bear on an already existing industry and make it better. Thus, while the bank is not directly financing these companies, it is providing the legal and policy framework to make the sector function in its current form.

Yet some argue that the bank’s involvement has made certain situations worse, including pushing industrial logging operations into remaining primary rainforests.

“The allocation of large logging concessions, millions of hectares, to mostly foreign companies is still the prevailing model in many countries in the Congo Basin to manage forests,” Susanne Breitkopf, a Washington-based senior political adviser on forest and climate with Greenpeace International, told IPS, referring to the vast tropical rainforests that cover six countries in Central Africa.

“That clashes with local use by communities, and economically the local communities are not benefitting from this. As it turns out, these are often low-paid, low-quality jobs without contracts. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, we found that over time local communities are often poorer than when the companies arrive.”

There have also been allegations of fraud and illegal activity. In 2010, a European Union-funded report on logging in the Congo Basin found that nearly all major companies in the sector were involved in illegal activities, including logging outside of legal limits, non-payment of taxes and fraud.

Meanwhile, many have complained that community forestry programmes in these areas have been either an afterthought or entirely absent. On the issue of participatory forest management, the new IEG assessment suggests that the bank is “neglecting” the informal sector.

In response, the bank agrees that “Effective community participation is essential for improving the management of protected areas … (but questions) the evaluative basis for IEG’s conclusions that the Bank is not already doing this.”

Reassessment opportunity

“The IEG report is a very good starting point,” Breitkopf says, “offering a great opportunity for the bank to seriously reassess its approach and develop new priorities in land rights, livelihoods and protection of ecological systems, especially with regard to the role that forests are playing in protecting us from devastating climate change.”

Yet she is pessimistic that the new evaluation will lead to significant change. She also notes that the International Finance Corporation, the World Bank Group’s private sector arm, currently in early talks with a French timber company called Rougier, is currently contemplating re-engagement with industrial logging in the Congo Basin for the first time in three decades.

“Unfortunately, even as the evidence has increasingly mounted over the years, this has not been taken into account,” Breitkopf says. “From what we’ve heard from management, there still seems to be a resistance towards the recommendations from the IEG. And frankly, we don’t understand this, given that this is such a good chance to find better solutions.”

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2013.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Debt Crises, a Damocles Sword

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Martin Khor

MKhor

Martin Khor

GENEVA, Jan 29 (IPS) – The issue of foreign debt has made a major comeback due to the crisis in Europe, in which many countries had to seek big bailouts to keep them from defaulting on their loan payments. Before this, debt crises have been associated with African and Latin American countries. In 1997-99, three East Asian countries also joined the indebted countries’ club.

This year, European countries, notably Germany, insisted that private creditors share the burden of resolving the Greek crisis. They had to take a “haircut” of about half, meaning that they would be repaid only half the amount they were owed.

It is increasingly clear that bailouts – where new loans are given to indebted countries to enable them to keep paying their old loans in full – are not enough and may be counterproductive, when the countries are facing a problem of insolvency and not just a temporary lack of liquidity. The restructuring of some of Greece’s debt that was owed to private creditors is an example of what needs to be done.

However, the ad hoc restructuring undertaken in the Greek case is not enough. A more systematic framework needs to be made available to countries on the verge of debt default, with principles agreed to internationally. In the absence of this, unilateral debt restructuring will probably be messy, as when a country is forced by desperate circumstances to declare a default and propose its own debt restructuring, which may or may not succeed in getting its creditors to agree to the terms.

And even if a majority of creditors agree to take the “haircut” proposed, a minority may hold out against the restructuring and this may disrupt the whole exercise. The current court case taken by a “vulture fund” that is holding out against Argentina’s debt restructuring is a clear example.

Though the debt crisis now has Europe as its epicentre, many developing countries may soon also be facing the same predicament.

Due to the effects of the global economic slowdown, with export prices and earnings beginning to take a significant hit, many developing countries are becoming vulnerable to a debt crisis. An increasing number have dwindling foreign reserves that can only pay for less than three months of the value of their imports.

There are many weaknesses in the present situation of voluntary systems such as including an element of burden sharing in collective action clauses in loan agreements, or in unilateral workouts that countries seek.

These voluntary methods can be either inadequate or unpredictable in design and effect as they do not have the benefit of an internationally agreed system. There should thus be new efforts to find an international solution such as a statutory debt workout mechanism.

For the past three decades the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has analysed the features of such an international sovereign debt workout system. The pioneering UNCTAD model is mainly based on the principles of the U.S. bankruptcy law. The elements of such a system are as follows.

First, a country facing debt difficulties can declare a temporary standstill on its external debt servicing. This gives some breathing space to formulate a proper debt servicing plan. The plan should cover all debt servicing, whether the difficulty is due to solvency problems, in which the debt has to be reduced, or liquidity problems, in which case the debt has to be rolled over.

Second, there is an automatic stay on litigation by creditors during the standstill. This is to avoid problems to both debtor country and its creditors. The stay on litigation is to prevent a situation where many creditors are scrambling for an exit or lining up to sue the country.

Third, an independent panel of legal and economic experts would be established to address the issues arising from the standstill, including assessing the countries’ debt situation. The independence of the panel is important, in that creditors should not be on the panel as they have a direct interest in the case.

Fourth, the country undertaking a temporary standstill would have to also undertake selective capital controls to prevent capital flight that can result from the standstill on debt payments.

Fifth, new loans should be provided to the debtor country, in a situation known as lending into arrears, in order that the country can continue to implement policies for economic and social development.

Sixth, the new loans contracted after the standstill should be given seniority status. This is to facilitate the emergence of new creditors and new loans.

Seventh is the debt restructuring exercise. The terms should be the result of negotiations between the debtor country and creditors. In the negotiations, the operationalising of the Collective Action Clauses (CACs), where they exist, could be a part of the exercise. Therefore there can be a combination of voluntary CACs and statutory debt workout. If creditors and the debtor country cannot reach agreement, then they can seek arbitration through an independent arbitration panel.

The United Nations is well placed to take the lead in this whole exercise of establishing a statutory debt workout mechanism.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2013.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Jumping the Abyss: Marriner S. Eccles and the New Deal, 1933-1940



By Mark Nelson
We capitalists have got to decide how much we are going to pay for capitalism.[1]
Marriner S.


See on neweconomicperspectives.org


Thinking Out Loud About the Financial Crisis and Austerity

By Alan Fogelquist

The reason societies like those of Eurozone the United States don’t move effectively to address the real causes of economic crisis and the unnecessarily high levels of unemployment is that members of the comfortable middle class with stable positions don’t yet feel the pain felt by the victims of bad economic policy and long standing institutionalized inequality. These problems are off the radar screen of many with upper incomes and secure positions even when a much larger share of  income is flowing to a tiny minority of individuals higher up the ladder associated with financial institutions that have the power to create money in the form of debt. The crisis is rooted in debt financed speculation, but the people paying the cost of the collapse in the value of assets and financial panic are not those with high paid positions in the large speculative financial institutions that have been rescued with public money, but common citizens whose businesses or jobs are lost in the recession or whose,  jobs, wages and salaries are cut through austerity measures.
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The Eurocratic elites are doing one thing and one thing only. They are trying to force working people in Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and elsewhere to pay off odious debt with interest and penalties to banks that were allowed to gamble in derivatives and create money in the form of debt. It’s time to cancel the debt and to introduce a new leadership in Europe or for the peoples of countries most victimized to force out governments subservient to the Eurocrat oligarchy and withdraw from the Eurozone. Until one of these things happens the people have no choice but protest.
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“But that’s not my issue’, some may say. But everything is becoming everyone’s issue in the world of 21st century conflict, financial crisis and victimization of millions. It’s a global problem both ethical and real and the issues are interrelated. That’s the reason the planet urgently requires effective multidimensional efforts to resolve pressing human and environmental problems before it becomes too late.
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Yes, this  may seem like preaching from the top a soap box, but what do you think Fox News does? What counts is what is said from the top of the soap box. Millions of soap boxes are necessary to counter false ideology spread in the mass media. We need a mass media that reflects the real interests of the majority of the people,  people who carry out real productive and useful work and receive modest wages and salaries. These are the people whose interests need to be defended. We need rational economic systems that make maximum use of the world’s productive capacity, technology, and brain power to serve human needs.

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The real issues in the world financial crisis and depression are institutional and moral, not technocratic. If the technocrats were to work diligently to solve the real issues facing humanity instead of inventing technical arguments to avoid them there would be much less suffering and much less unemployment.

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© Copyright 2012 Alan F. Fogelquist, Ph.D. All rights reserved.


Neoliberal Political Economy: Regressive Distribution on a Global Scale

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy

By Alan F. Fogelquist, Ph.D

This essay discusses some of the main characteristics of today’s neoliberal political and economic order. Other terms exist to describe the same general set of institutions and policy prescriptions, but neoliberalism is a convenient expression for designating them in one word that is now widely used and understood.

Neoliberalism is now used as a generic term to characterize an economic ideology that favors unrestricted “free” markets, “free trade”, macro-economic stability, and a set of related economic policies. Neoliberal ideology favors unrestricted freedom of private corporations to pursue profit, the privatization of public enterprises and services, and the elimination or reduction of public or government control, regulation, and guidance of economic activity. Neoliberal policy prescriptions give priority to the prevention and control of inflation over economic growth and employment. In some versions of neoliberalism, there are also prescriptions for tax reductions for corporations and upper income groups under the assumption extra income retained after tax reduction will be reinvested in productive capacity. The ideology also calls for free trade and the elimination of tariffs or government support of domestic manufacturing. The ideology assumes that unregulated markets will correct themselves and produce optimal outcomes for society as a whole.

Over the decades neoliberal ideology has evolved and received a variety of labels ranging from monetarism in the 1980s to the Washington Consensus in later years. Despite some changes and refinement, the policy prescriptions have remained much the same in terms of their regressive effects on distribution of income and wealth and also their contribution to financialization of the economy and the decline of the manufacturing industry in many countries. Rightwing politicians have culled political slogans from popularized works of neoliberal economists or political ideologues like Milton Friedman and his successors. In advanced developed economies, the introduction of neoliberal institutions and policies began in the 1980s under the governments of Ronald Reagan in the United States and Margaret Thatcher in the UK In subsequent years neoliberal policy came to dominate much of the economic landscape of the capitalist world and in one form or another was adopted by major political parties and governments in many countries. In the United States both Republican and Democratic governments adopted key elements of neoliberal thinking including free trade dogmas. The notable exception to neoliberal capitalism in recent decades has been in the rapidly developing economies of Asia that rejected some of the core doctrines and practices of neoliberalism as practiced in the United States and much of Europe and Latin America.

Set of Badges, Labels, Tags "Made in China". Vector illustration. Grunge stamp with text The neoliberal economic order produces institutionalized inequality – unequal power, unequal advantage, and unequal exchange. Those without power are forced to exchange their labor and expertise for less than the real value of their product or contribution. While any economic transaction has the potential for unequal or unfair exchange, the current system of rewards is completely in favor of those with political and economic bargaining power and against those who depend on wages and salaries for their work, either physical or mental. The neoliberal order is one where institutionalized inequality and perverse incentives prevent technological advances from reaching their full potential to improve the human condition. Instead tiny minorities reap most of the benefits while the majority of the world’s inhabitants receive marginal benefits or are left out. Neoliberal ideology based on fallacious assumptions presented as science is used to justify regressive economic policy and race-to-the bottom competition based on lower wages and special state favors to monopolistic or speculative “enterprises.” In the Orwellian language of neoliberalism speculation is confused with productive investment. Speculation becomes coterminous with investment.

The vast expansion of the global market economy to include countries with enormous populations of desperately poor workers and farmers has created an enormous downward pressure on employment and wages in countries that had achieved higher incomes and economic security for the wage and salary workers after decades of economic development and social struggles. Globalization following the inclusion of China, India, and Russia in the world market economy has created race-to-the bottom competition and increased levels of exploitation. It has contributed to the imbalance between wage income paid to workers directly engaged in production and the performance of services on the one hand and income in the form of profits or executive and upper managerial salaries that accrues to the economically powerful on the other hand.

Also intensifying inequality has been the change in policy regime starting in the early 1980s when neoliberal monetarist macroeconomic policy replaced more expansionary policies of the early post war compact between labor and capital. Also accentuating inequality were measures to break labor unions and increase the power of employers to step up the level of exploitation of workers and employees.

Increased profit and upper managerial and executive income beyond increases in labor productivity have repeatedly produced a chronic imbalance between effective demand or purchasing power and the supply of goods and services even in times of economic expansion. This has resulted in a growing accumulation of income at the top with no productive outlet for investment. The existence of large pools of capital without profitable outlets for productive investment fuels speculation. These pools of capital are funneled into financial institutions that clamor for deregulation in order to have a free hand to engage in high-risk asset speculation driving up the price of tangible and intangible assets and distorting the structure of the economy. The collapse of asset prices fueled by speculation has led to repeated financial panics and economic crises. Following neoliberal policy prescriptions, step-by-step deregulation of financial institutions in the 1980s and 1990s accelerated the growth of the private financial sector at the expense of manufacturing and public services. The growth of the financialized speculative sector fueled by excess profits, higher managerial income, and increased exploitation of an underpaid labor force also increased the capacity of large corporations and wealthy individuals to use their financial power to gain political power. The same corporations and individuals were able to influence politics through domination of the mass media, intensified lobbying efforts, funding of electoral campaigns, funding of policy institutes, and ideological influence over business and economic education in universities. All of these activities contributed to the growing dominance of plutocratic capitalism over policy discussion and to the promotion of policies that serve the interests of tiny wealthy minorities rather than the general public.

After decades of testing neoliberal ideology as the dominant paradigm it is now possible to see its deep flaws and inhuman consequences. Austerity economics prescribed by neoliberal politicians and economists, especially during a crisis or recession produces massive unemployment and downward pressure on the wages and salaries. These policies intensify and prolong recessions. Free trade dogma has led to a decline in manufacturing and the transfer of factories and jobs to low wage countries placing additional downward pressure on wages and loss of employment in many middle income and developed countries without proportional benefits to workers and ordinary people in poor countries. Outsourcing of information technology and jobs to lower wage countries now threatens the economic security even in the technologically advanced sectors of developed economies. In the meantime factory workers in countries that have gained jobs from this zero-sum activity are severely exploited and live under inhuman conditions while the multinational elites profit from the transfer. Everywhere it is the multinational capitalists and elites in the emerging economic giants like China and India that receive the benefits of uncontrolled globalization. In short, neoliberal policies have resulted in a massive transfer of income and wealth upwards and contributed to global imbalances and instability.

Unless there as a fundamental change in ideology, these trends will certainly continue and there will be major crises that inflict enormous but preventable human casualties. Highly volatile and imperfect markets characterized by unequal power, an unequal advantage, crony capitalism, reckless casino finance, environmental wreckage, and plutocratic domination of government and the media will continue their unsustainable course creating mass misery, and periodic crises.

Choice of economic policy usually involves tradeoffs between goals that may be in partial conflict such as low inflation versus high employment or cheap manufactured goods versus jobs and decent wages, but most tradeoffs benefit some groups more than others. The best tradeoffs are those that benefit the majority of the people, those engaged directly in the creation of useful goods or performance of needed services for the general population. The best tradeoffs are those that serve the public good rather than the good of tiny minorities. The real choice in economic policy boils down to who gets what and fair versus unfair exchange.

Neoliberalism is not the only analytical framework available. There are real and feasible alternatives to neoliberalism that can lead to better living conditions and better economic outcomes for the majority of the world’s inhabitants. There have always been alternative frameworks for economic and political analysis and successful examples of alternative economic practices that have led to better outcomes. Examples of successful economic policies outside the framework of neoliberalism can be found in many countries and forms ranging from government policies to promote the development of domestic manufacturing in East Asia and Brazil to social democratic support for health care, education, vocational training and pensions for the elderly in Scandinavia, Germany, and France. Argentina offers lessons for overcoming financial crises aggravated by neoliberal austerity and some examples of worker owned enterprises. The Mondragon industrial cooperative in Spain shows that plutocratic ownership of industry is not the only alternative. Many countries and regions have successful experiments in public support for green development and efforts to preserve the environment.

No set of policies is perfect, but some serve the needs of the many and human well being much better than others. From the beginning, there have been social scientists, economists and observers of economic and political life who have challenged what proved to be flawed assumptions and claims of the neoliberals. The reason for the power and influence of neoliberalism lies largely in the tremendous economic, political, and media power of the minorities that have benefited from its prescriptions. In future essays we will go into more detail in our analysis of the dynamics of neoliberalism, alternative frameworks, and the experience of various regions and countries around the world.

© Copyright 2012 Alan F. Fogelquist, Ph.D. All rights reserved.

This article should not be republished or redistributed without the permission of the original author or copyright holder.

Alan F. Fogelquist is an economic historian and analyst of geopolitical and economic issues. He is editor of the Global Geopolitics & Political Economy and Real Political Economy websites.


Bankers, Swindlers

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Ignacio Ramonet

PARIS, Nov 09 (IPS) – For anyone who might not have realised it yet, the current crisis is demonstrating beyond a shadow of a doubt that the financial markets are the lead players in the current economic situation in Europe. Power has passed from the politicians to speculators and crooked bankers. This is a fundamental change.

Every single day a staggering quantity of money floods through the markets – for example, seven billion euros worth of eurozone governments’ debt alone, according to the European Central Bank. The daily collective decisions of these markets can now topple governments, dictate policies, and subjugate entire populations.

Moreover, these new "lords of the earth" have no concern whatsoever for the common good. Solidarity is not their problem, much less the preservation of the welfare state. Greed is the only motive for their actions. Speculators and bankers, driven by a hunger for profits, behave with total impunity, diving like birds of prey on target after target.

Since the crisis broke in 2008 no serious reform has been imposed to either regulate the markets or rein in the bankers. It is apparent that banks play a clear role in the economic system and that their traditional activities ­ encouraging savings, providing families with credit, financing businesses, spurring commerce ­ are constructive.

However, since the dawn in the 1980s of the "universal bank", which added speculation and investment to the above mix of functions, risks to customers’ savings shot up dramatically along with deceit, scandals, and fraud.

One of the most shameless acts was carried out by Goldman Sachs, which now dominates the financial universe. In 2001 it helped Greece to cook its books so that Athens would meet the conditions to join the euro.

In under seven years, this scam was discovered and the reality exploded like a bomb. The consequence: a debt crisis engulfed almost an entire continent; Greece was sacked and forced onto its knees; recession struck, with massive unemployment and plummeting buying power of workers; restructuring and drastic cuts in social services followed, with widespread misery and the imposition of structural adjustment programmes.

How were the perpetrators of this devastating swindle punished? Mario Draghi, the ex-vice president of Goldman Sachs for Europe who was aware of most of the fraud, was named president of the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, for its crooked window-dressing for Greece, Goldman charged 600 million euros. The story has a clear moral: when it comes to major rip-offs by the banks, impunity is the rule.

For confirmation look no further than the thousands of Spanish depositors who bought stocks in Bankia the day it was listed on the stock market. It was known that the bank had no credibility and that according to the ratings agencies its stock was just a step above junk.

But the depositors trusted Rodrigo Rato, then president of Bankia and ex-managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who proclaimed on May 2, 2012 (five days before resigning in response to market pressure and just before the Spanish government had to inject 23.5 billion euros to keep it out of bankruptcy): "In terms of both liquidity and solvency, we are in a very robust position."

It is known that a year earlier, in July 2011, Bankia apparently passed the "stress test" imposed by the European Banking Authority (EBA) on the 91 largest financial businesses in Europe. This should give an idea of the incompetence and ineptitude of the EBA, the European agency charged with guaranteeing the health of our banks.

But that wasn’t the end of the scandals. Indeed, new bank frauds have come to light in recent months. HSBC was accused of money laundering for Mexican narco-traffickers. J.P. Morgan engaged in massive speculation and unprecedented risk-taking that led to losses of 7.5 billion euros and ruined dozens of clients. The same happened at Knight Capital, which lost over 323 million euros in a single night because of a mistake by its automatic trading programme.

But the scandal that is most infuriating on a global scale is the Libor. The Association of British Bankers issues each day what is called the "London Interbank Offered Rate", an average calculated by Reuters financial news agency of the interest rates obtained by the 16 largest banks for borrowing.

As the rate at which the major banks lend money to each other, Libor constitutes a fundamental benchmark for the entire world financial system. In particular, it is used to calculate mortgage rates for homeowners. Worldwide, Libor influences some 350 trillion euros in credit and any variation in it can have a colossal effect.

How did this scam work? Some of the 91 Libor banks colluded in lying about the rates they were obtaining, thus manipulating not only Libor but all derivative contracts and the credit rates for businesses and families alike. This went on for years.

Investigations have shown that about ten major international banks ­ Barclays, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Credit Suisse, UBS, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and the Royal Bank of Scotland ­ participated in the racket.

What we see from the Libor disaster is that criminal behaviour has infected the very heart of the financial industry, and that probably millions of families were issued mortgages at incorrect rates. Many had to leave their homes. Others were evicted because they couldn’t pay artificially-manipulated interest rates. And once again the authorities charged with overseeing the operation of the markets turned a blind eye to this crime. No one has been punished beyond four schemers.

How long can democracies continue to allow such impunity? In 1932 in the United States, Ferdinand Pecora, son of Italian immigrants who became a prosecutor in New York, was named by president Herbert Hoover to investigate the responsibility of the banks for the crash of 1929. His report was overwhelming. It was he who coined the term "banksters" (out of "bankers’" and "gangsters").

On the basis of this report, president Franklin D. Roosevelt acted to protect the American people from the risks of speculation. He passed the "Glass-Stegall Act" which (until it was repealed in 1999) required the separation of commercial banking from investment banking. What government of the eurozone would dare pass similar legislation today? (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)

* Ignacio Ramonet is editor of Le Monde diplomatique en español.

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

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