Is Uzbekistan’s Economy Going into a Tailspin?

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Kitty Stapp

TASHKENT, Feb 11 (EurasiaNet) – Uzbekistan has introduced sweeping new banking and import regulations that appear designed to keep hard currency from leaving the country.Observers say residents and entrepreneurs should expect a bumpy ride in the coming months, as the cumbersome new measures are expected to drive up prices for basic goods and encourage an expansion of the shadow economy.

At the beginning of February, new rules regulating foreign currency exchange basically made it impossible for Uzbeks to get their hands, legally, on hard currency. Under the new rules, residents can only trade Uzbek sums for virtual hard currency loaded onto plastic banking cards for use abroad or online, not cash.

At the same time, authorities began arresting the currency traders who operate in a thriving black market, where the U.S. dollar fetches approximately 40 percent more than banks offer in exchange for sums.

While the exchange regulations received widespread attention, on Jan. 30 customs authorities also quietly introduced new import rules requiring mountains of paperwork. According to the State Customs Committee, importers must now submit "preliminary" customs declarations for all imported goods 30 days in advance.

Along with the preliminary declaration, importers are also required to procure certificates showing goods’ compliance with Uzbekistan’s strict and oft-changing hygienic, conformity and veterinary standards. The new steps add more paperwork to an already burdensome process.

And in Uzbekistan – routinely classified as one of the most corrupt countries on the planet; Transparency International ranks it tied for 170th out of 174 countries surveyed in its most recent Corruption Perceptions Index – paperwork often gives authorities a chance to find errors, perceived or real, and solicit bribes.

Officially, the new customs regulations stated aim is to "further fundamentally improve the business environment and provide greater freedom to entrepreneurship" and to "liberalize" foreign trade. But with the regulations announced so suddenly, after no public discussion, few are taking authorities at their word.

Instead, some regional media outlets have suggested authorities are trying to keep hard currency from leaving the country; others speculate that authorities are protecting the business interests of a well-connected individual or family (not unheard of in Uzbekistan).

Either way, analysts say it is difficult to imagine Uzbekistan’s limited domestic manufacturing base offering substitutes of sufficient quantity and quality to offset the expected price fluctuations as goods disappear from store shelves.

Import restrictions in Uzbekistan are hardly news: In 2000, Tashkent banned individuals from importing goods for resale. In 2009, the maximum value of goods that could be imported duty-free for personal consumption was reduced to 10 dollars per person.

These rules turned travel abroad for the average Uzbek into a troublesome experience. Long lines are now routine at border crossings, as customs officers sift through bags to identify items subject to customs duties or seizure (or another chance to solicit a bribe).

Because high import tariffs already make consumer goods in Uzbekistan expensive, many Uzbeks have long preferred to shop in neighbouring countries such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. This practice is growing increasingly difficult under the existing regulations.

Unsurprisingly, when it comes to facilitating cross-border trading, the World Bank recently ranked Uzbekistan as the worst performer out of 185 countries surveyed in its Doing Business report for 2013.

Coupled with the latest foreign currency restrictions, analysts believe the new import regulations aim to prevent Uzbekistan’s foreign exchange and gold reserves from dwindling. (By limiting imports, the idea is the authorities are limiting the outflow of precious foreign cash and gold. Most analysts consider current account statistics unreliable).

Tashkent does not publish data on its reserves, or what share of its export earnings are channeled into replenishing reserves. But given the government’s reluctance to borrow, the restrictions on the circulation of hard cash suggest Tashkent is having trouble balancing the books.

"Coming on the back of the recent changes to currency regulations, one reason for the import restrictions is likely to be that the government is seeking to protect the country’s foreign-exchange reserves," Anna Walker, a Central Asia analyst at the London-based Control Risks consultancy, told EurasiaNet.org.

"It also probably reflects a long-standing policy of encouraging import-substituting industrialization, though this policy has failed to foster a dynamic, domestic industrial sector that produces goods capable of competing with imports."

Walker doubts the Uzbek government can achieve its economic goals by administrative fiat alone.

"Given the prevalence of imported goods in most sectors, it is highly unlikely that domestically produced goods will be able to substitute for imports. The government’s attempts to attract foreign investment in sectors other than natural resources have been largely unsuccessful, and the domestic manufacturing sector does not have the capacity to fill the gap left by the new import restrictions," Walker added.

The stifling import and currency regulations often force Uzbek entrepreneurs to operate in the shadows. Privately, many confess they can only survive by bribing tax and customs officials.

One entrepreneur, a jeweler, who agreed to talk to EurasiaNet.org on condition of anonymity, said he thought any new import restrictions were done for one reason only: “To prevent the outflow of foreign currency from the country."

The new restrictions are likely to backfire, driving up prices and pushing more entrepreneurs into the shadow economy, Walker said: "The immediate result is likely to be an increase in prices, as the availability of goods diminishes, as well as growth in the shadow economy as consumers and retailers attempt to get round the restrictions.”

While there has not yet been a visible impact on the prices for essentials in the capital, Tashkent, the restrictions have started hurting supplies. One shopkeeper told EurasiaNet.org that he was having trouble sourcing chocolate and candy. While other items were still in stock, he explained, his local suppliers have stopped accepting and delivering orders.

Editor’s note: Murat Sadykov is the pseudonym for a journalist specialising in Central Asian affairs.

This story was originally published by EurasiaNet.org.

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This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Argentina Pins Hopes on Bumper Grain Harvest

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, Feb 09 (IPS) – Argentina has better prospects in 2013 after modest growth in 2012, thanks to an excellent grain harvest and the recovery of Brazil, its main market.But high inflation remains an unsolved challenge.

Since the government took control of the National Statistics and Census Institute (INDEC) in 2007, its inflation figures have been called into question, locally and internationally. INDEC reported inflation last year as 10.8 percent, but estimates from the private sector and the parliamentary opposition put it at 25.6 percent.

"There was a sharp economic slowdown in 2012, partly because of the international crisis and partly because of internal imbalances," economist Luciana Díaz, director of the fiscal policy programme at the Centre for the Implementation of Public Policies Promoting Equity and Growth (CIPPEC), an NGO, told IPS.

CIPPEC carries out constant monitoring of the public policies of the centre-left government of President Cristina Fernández.

According to INDEC’s latest figures, GDP grew 1.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2012, a poor result compared to GDP growth of 8.9 percent for the whole of 2011.

"The fiscal situation is being patched up with band-aids instead of developing comprehensive solutions. This affects monetary policy, increases inflation, blocks imports and creates expectations of a devaluation, which has repercussions on the level of economic activity," Díaz said.

This expectation is reflected at present in a widening gap between the official value of the dollar (not available for savings) at 4.99 pesos, and the black market dollar (or "blue rate" as it is termed locally), which in the first few days of February was valued at between 7.60 and 8.00 pesos.

Díaz said this scenario is a disincentive to private investment. The government is trying to compensate with greater public investment, "but then the vicious circle is intensified," she said.

In Díaz’s view, if adjustments had been made two years ago to limit public spending and inflation, growth would have been lower in 2010 and 2011, but higher in 2012. "We would have avoided these fluctuations that create uncertainty," she said.

The government is forecasting a recovery in 2013, with GDP growth of 4.4 percent, according to this year’s budget. Payments due on external debt will also be lower this year than in 2012.

Private analysts concur with the forecast of higher economic activity, which is attributed mainly to recovery in Brazil, which had 1.2 percent GDP growth in 2012 and this year is predicted to have four percent.

Data on Brazil are provided by the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2012, released in December by the Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

The ECLAC overview reports growth of 2.2 percent of GDP for 2012 in the Argentine economy, and 3.9 percent in 2013, because of Brazil’s greater dynamism and a bumper grain harvest, a key element in Argentina’s economy.

Automobile production and sales in 2012 compared with projections for 2013 show the extent to which Argentina depends on Brazil’s prospects. Eighty-two percent of Argentine car exports are sold to Brazil.

According to the Asociación de Fábricas de Automotores (ADEFA), the industry association, in 2012 production fell by 7.8 percent compared to 2011, while exports fell by 18.4 percent.

If Brazil experiences a recovery, as it already has in the last quarter of 2012, production volumes of Argentine cars will increase, as well as sales, ADEFA said.

The grain harvest this year is forecast to be larger than last season’s. "It may even be one of the best harvests we have ever had," Gustavo López, an analyst with Agritrend, a consultancy, told IPS.

López said the sum of the expected harvests of soybean and maize – the main export crops – together with the completed harvests of wheat, barley, sorghum and sunflower, will reach a total of between 105 and 110 million tonnes.

"The best season so far was in 2010/2011, when the harvest was 103 million tonnes," he said. However, he preferred to err on the side of caution, especially as much depends on the level of rainfall in the next few weeks.

The 2011/2012 agricultural cycle produced a harvest of only 90 million tonnes, due to drought which reduced crop yields. This year, in spite of a lower cultivated area, volumes are expected to be higher, López said.

On its own, soybean, the star crop, accounts for half of the total harvest.

"If the forecasts are fulfilled, some 80 million tonnes will be exported, representing earnings of 36 billion dollars, out of which 10 billion dollars will go into the state coffers because of (the tax known as) ‘export retentions’," López said.

With these improved prospects, the issue on the government’s economic agenda that is the greatest irritant at the start of this year is inflation, a variable for which official figures are nearly 15 percentage points lower than those of the private sector and those presented in Congress by the opposition.

On Feb. 1 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) took the unprecedented step of issuing a "declaration of censure" against Argentina because the measures taken to correct its economic statistics "have not been sufficient."

The IMF gave the country until Sep. 29 to address the inaccuracies in its consumer price index and GDP growth figures.

The government responded through the economy ministry, blaming the IMF for allegedly contributing to the 2001-2002 Argentine banking crisis and attributing the motion of censure to the IMF’s hostility to Argentina’s determination to reduce its external debt.

However, the government did say it was working on a new price index which will come into force in the last quarter of the year.

ECLAC’s overview said the official inflation rate of 10.8 percent was the second highest in the region after Venezuela. If the opposition’s figure is adopted, Argentina’s inflation is the highest in Latin America.

In spite of its reluctance to openly admit the difference between official and unofficial inflation rates, the government is approving wage and pension increases that are closer to the unofficial consumer price index than to the government’s own.

Meanwhile, the domestic trade secretariat is temporarily freezing prices in supermarket chains and also on household appliances. But according to Díaz, "price controls are increasingly ineffective."

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2013.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Davos Puts Protests Behind

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Ray Smith

DAVOS, Feb 05 (IPS) – Barbed wire and safety fences are dismantled, the police and army are withdrawn and freedom of movement is restored. The 43rd annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) ended last month with negligible protests against the ‘global leaders’.Every year in late January, the Swiss mountain town Davos is temporarily turned into a fortress. On the streets, policemen, soldiers and bodyguards outnumber unarmed citizens by far.

More than 2,500 ‘global leaders’ met in Davos this year “to improve the state of the world.” as the WEF claims. It’s difficult to make much sense of this year’s motto ‘Resilient Dynamism’. Nevertheless, a lot was discussed, much optimism spread but no decisions taken; at least in front of the cameras.

Even though temperatures were frosty, sunshine reigned at this year’s annual meeting. At least from the business perspective, the global economic crisis is receding. “The worst is behind us. The optimism for recovery is there,” Axel Weber, chairman of the board of directors of the scandal-ridden bank UBS proclaimed.

Meanwhile Davos mayor Tarzisius Caviezel couldn’t stop raving about the WEF’s economic importance for Europe’s highest city: “The pictures broadcast throughout the world are invaluable advertising for Davos.”

Indeed, visual publicity was much worse a decade ago – trashed fast food restaurants, broken windows, a martial police presence, clouds of tear gas, peaceful protesters beaten and showered by water cannons.

This year, barbed wire was cleverly covered by large white canvas. The security personnel’s only challenge was to guide the countless SUVs and limousines through the town’s narrow streets.

A decade ago, thousands of protesters challenged the ‘global leaders’, threatening to shut down the World Economic Forum. It wasn’t just about expressing alternative opinions in Davos, but about chasing the rich and powerful out of town. “Wipe out WEF” was their slogan.

In past years the police did everything possible to keep protesters away from Davos, and put up with riots in other Swiss cities. Whoever tried to travel to Davos was stopped; trains and coaches were blocked in the lowlands.

About 50 people joined a rally in Davos. Rolf Marugg, secretary of the local Green Party was pleased, though he had expected more. “It’s important that we as locals protest against the meeting, the order of the globalised economy and the often dirty doings of the WEF participants,” Marugg said.

Pointing at the WEF’s rather vague motto, the Green politician said that the world doesn’t need dynamism and resilience but a slowdown and change. “The current crisis proves that those self-appointed global leaders’ only ability is to drive economy, society and the environment against the wall. ‘Resilient Dynamism’ therefore only means to keep up the current crisis system by any means possible.”

Over the last few years, small demonstrations are tolerated in Davos; they no longer constitute a threat. The rally went almost unnoticed. Additionally, Greenpeace temporarily shut down a Shell gas station, criticising the company for planning to drill for oil in the Arctic. In another token protest, three activists approached the congress centre with smoke flares to protest against the exploitation of women in the global economy.

A decade ago going up to Davos in late January was on every left-wing activist’s agenda. David Böhner, now in his forties, was a leading figure in Switzerland’s anti-globalisation movement. “Our protest was fundamentally anti-capitalist and directed against the increasingly powerful multinational corporations,” he said.

“Any social movement needs some kind of point of reference. In our case, the World Economic Forum provided a suitable projection screen.” At that time, no meeting of the G8, the European Union or the WTO was safe from resistance protests.

Böhner didn’t travel to Davos this year. “The demonstrations against the WEF don’t interest me any more.” The political capacity to ignite has long gone, he said, and a ritualised form of protest carries little potential.

It was in the early 2000s that opposition was loudest and most radical. Even though the authorities were quick to deflect from political content by nurturing a debate on violence at the protests, it was then when the activists’ arguments were most heard.

“Another major reason for the decline of the anti-WEF movement surely was the police repression,” David Böhner added. The turning point was in 2004, when 1,082 demonstrators were held in the freezing cold in the town Landquart, 40 kilometres from Davos, after violently being pulled out of a train by the police.

The authorities succeeded, because disputes flared up within the movement. Mobilising for demonstrations in Davos became senseless, unwise and unattractive. In the following years, increasingly smaller rallies were held in other Swiss cities.

Meanwhile, the WEF facilitated media access and invited ‘civil society leaders’ to their debates to counter critique. The Open Forum to run parallel to the WEF was invented.

But despite its polished image, the World Economic Forum remains a dubious platform for politicians and business leaders to consult behind closed doors, far from any accountability. The official programme is just one side of the coin.

On behalf of the World Economic Forum, Nicholas Davis argues that if every meeting was made public, nothing would get decided. “Some conversations – over delicate or sensitive issues – frankly have to be held behind closed doors. Our aim is to be as open as possible without jeopardising our mission to improve the state of the world.”

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This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Obama’s OMB Channels its Inner Tea Party

By William K.Black The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is every administration’s heavy artillery on budget issues.  OMB’s staff is dominated by neo-liberal micro-economists under every administration, so it is institutionally…

 

“The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is every administration’s heavy artillery on budget issues.  OMB’s staff is dominated by neo-liberal micro-economists under every administration, so it is institutionally conservative.  OMB personnel obtain promotions by killing programs, cutting spending, and either blocking the adoption of regulations or weakening the regulations.  OMB is institutionally predisposed to embrace austerity.  OMB is also expected to be a zealous advocate for the President.”

“The combination of those dual roles can produce especially bad pro-austerity propaganda.  President Obama’s OMB produced a classic example of that propaganda in 2012 that exemplifies the administration’s incoherence on austerity.  Obama 2013 budget proposal contains OMB’s ode to austerity.  It was prepared under Jacob Lew’s direction.  Lew was OMB’s head until he became Obama’s chief of staff in January 2012.  Lew is described as the leading candidate to succeed Treasury Secretary Geithner.  Lew, Geithner, and William Daley (then Obama’s chief of staff) were Obama’s principal aides during his attempt in July 2011 to negotiate the Great Betrayal with Speaker Boehner.  Each of them is a strong supporter of austerity and cuts to the safety net and a champion of Wall Street’s interests.”

See on neweconomicperspectives.org


Jumping the Abyss: Marriner S. Eccles and the New Deal, 1933-1940



By Mark Nelson
We capitalists have got to decide how much we are going to pay for capitalism.[1]
Marriner S.


See on neweconomicperspectives.org


Crisis in the Eurozone: Costas Lapavitsas: 9781844679690: Amazon.com: Books



Crisis in the Eurozone [Costas Lapavitsas] on Amazon.com. *FREE* super saver shipping on qualifying offers. A controversial call to break up the Eurozone and stop the debt crisis.


See on www.amazon.com


State Failing as Parent

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Pavol Stracansky

SOFIA, Bulgaria, Dic 02 (IPS) – Governments in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are being urged to end the institutionalisation of babies as more than 15,000 children a year in the region continue to be subjected to a practice experts say often leaves them physically and mentally scarred for life.At a UNICEF conference in the Bulgarian capital Sofia last week, representatives from 20 governments across the region heard that every hour on average two young children, mostly babies, are separated from their parents and sent into institutional care.

And, despite concrete reforms in some states, and with institutionalisation on the rise in more than half the countries in the region, more work needs to be done to ensure childcare across the entire region is radically overhauled, UNICEF and other groups say.

Jean Claude Legrand, regional advisor on child protection at the UNICEF regional office for Central and Eastern Europe and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), told IPS: “Childcare in the region needs to be de-institutionalised and there needs to be a change of attitude towards what can be best done for children.”

A relic of communism, child institutionalisation remains common across the former Eastern bloc.

A report presented at the conference in Sofia showed that more than a million children in the region are separated from their families and more than 600,000, including at least 31,000 aged three or under, are in state-run facilities.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia has the highest rate of institutionalisation in the world.

Many families who feel they cannot support a child, often for financial reasons, turn them over to state-run orphanages. Support services for parents considering abandoning children are often weak, and in some cases non-existent.

This leaves some feeling that they have no choice but to abandon their child to an institution, especially if the child is disabled.

But while orphanages across the region do provide basic care, campaigners for de-institutionalisation point to studies showing that putting children in institutions, especially when very young, can result in severe developmental problems.

Among these are brain and other physical growth deficiencies, cognitive problems and delays in the development of speech and language skills believed to be caused by a lack of stimulus and affection in institutions.

This, however, is not universally acknowledged or even known about in some parts of the region, and many people working in or in charge of childcare continue to see institutionalisation as a benefit for some children.

Beth Maughan of UK-based charity Hope and Homes for Children which works in Eastern Europe helping governments deinstitutionalise childcare, told IPS: “Among people working at or running, institutions, there is often a lack of information on the effects that institutionalisation has on children under three.”

Other studies have also shown that it costs as much as six times more to house a child in an institution as to provide social services to vulnerable families, is three times more expensive than professional foster care and twice as expensive as placing them in a small family home.

But despite the proven negative effects on young children put in care and the potential economic savings of deinstitutionalisation, moving away from institutionalisation remains a challenge in many countries in the region.

Often state services are not linked, and different stages of childcare responsibility can fall under different ministries, leading to a lack of a uniform strategy for any childcare reform.

Such reform is also often low priority for governments.

Attitudes have proved slow to change. The belief that it is better to grow up in an orphanage than in a poverty-stricken family – thinking which has been prevalent since communist times – remains deeply entrenched in some communities. In some cases, parents who were themselves institutionalised see it as the best option for children of their own.

Ignorance among those involved in childcare and social stigma also means that children with disabilities, ethnic minorities and infants born to HIV positive women are at high risk of being institutionalised. It is not uncommon for mothers to be actively encouraged to give up their babies at birth.

The subsequent predominance of institutionalisation and prevailing attitudes have suppressed the development of alternative care options for abandoned children, such as foster care and small home facilities, as well as support networks to prevent abandonment in the first place.

This, those working in the field say, has only encouraged more child institutionalisation.

Maughan told IPS: “The fact that institutions exist encourages them to be used. In a borderline case where there might be some concern over a child, decisions may be made to simply put them in an institution rather than making a lot of effort to analyse whether this is actually necessary.

“We know from our own experience this happens. But if there is no institution, more is likely to be done to determine whether a child should be left with its family.”

However, despite the apparently considerable barriers to deinstitutionalisation, campaigners remain optimistic that the placement of under-threes in orphanages in the region can be stopped before the end of the decade.

Some countries have recently made significant advances in reforming their childcare systems. Romania, Serbia and Croatia have introduced legislation to ban the placing of children under the age of three in institutions while Bulgaria has already started closing down some of its orphanages.

Other countries have also pledged to take concrete steps to reform their childcare systems and move towards ending institutionalisation of infants.

“Some countries have made incredible progress on de-institutionalisation in recent years,” UNICEF’s Legrand told IPS.

“What we want to see, by 2020, is laws, mechanisms and services in place for ensuring that all children below three years can live in a family environment.

“Hopefully, getting results on (deinstitutionalisation) of children below the age of three will gradually close the flow (of children into orphanages) and stop as many children being put in institutions as there are today.”

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2012.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission of IPS – Inter Press Service. Republication of this material without permission from IPS, the copyright holder, constitutes a violation of United States and international copyright laws and may result in legal action.


Thinking Out Loud About the Financial Crisis and Austerity

By Alan Fogelquist

The reason societies like those of Eurozone the United States don’t move effectively to address the real causes of economic crisis and the unnecessarily high levels of unemployment is that members of the comfortable middle class with stable positions don’t yet feel the pain felt by the victims of bad economic policy and long standing institutionalized inequality. These problems are off the radar screen of many with upper incomes and secure positions even when a much larger share of  income is flowing to a tiny minority of individuals higher up the ladder associated with financial institutions that have the power to create money in the form of debt. The crisis is rooted in debt financed speculation, but the people paying the cost of the collapse in the value of assets and financial panic are not those with high paid positions in the large speculative financial institutions that have been rescued with public money, but common citizens whose businesses or jobs are lost in the recession or whose,  jobs, wages and salaries are cut through austerity measures.
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The Eurocratic elites are doing one thing and one thing only. They are trying to force working people in Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and elsewhere to pay off odious debt with interest and penalties to banks that were allowed to gamble in derivatives and create money in the form of debt. It’s time to cancel the debt and to introduce a new leadership in Europe or for the peoples of countries most victimized to force out governments subservient to the Eurocrat oligarchy and withdraw from the Eurozone. Until one of these things happens the people have no choice but protest.
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“But that’s not my issue’, some may say. But everything is becoming everyone’s issue in the world of 21st century conflict, financial crisis and victimization of millions. It’s a global problem both ethical and real and the issues are interrelated. That’s the reason the planet urgently requires effective multidimensional efforts to resolve pressing human and environmental problems before it becomes too late.
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Yes, this  may seem like preaching from the top a soap box, but what do you think Fox News does? What counts is what is said from the top of the soap box. Millions of soap boxes are necessary to counter false ideology spread in the mass media. We need a mass media that reflects the real interests of the majority of the people,  people who carry out real productive and useful work and receive modest wages and salaries. These are the people whose interests need to be defended. We need rational economic systems that make maximum use of the world’s productive capacity, technology, and brain power to serve human needs.

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The real issues in the world financial crisis and depression are institutional and moral, not technocratic. If the technocrats were to work diligently to solve the real issues facing humanity instead of inventing technical arguments to avoid them there would be much less suffering and much less unemployment.

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© Copyright 2012 Alan F. Fogelquist, Ph.D. All rights reserved.


How Austerity Plans Failed the Europe Union

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IPS

Julio Godoy

BERLIN, Nov 16 (IPS) – The austerity programmes being rolled out in virtually every member state of the European Union (EU) – particularly in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy – have failed to reach their stated objective of consolidating public finances in order to solve sovereign debt crises.Instead, these programmes – which entail massive public spending cuts in sectors such as education, health and governance – are “leading to collective folly” and even to “a social breakdown” across the continent, according to numerous economic experts.

Far from solving the debt crisis, as promised, the current fiscal consolidation plans will result in higher debt-GDP ratios in the EU in 2013, according to recent research.

Several reports have now confirmed what economists and activists warned months and even years ago: that the economic crisis, triggered by the financial collapse of 2007-2008 and the subsequent state-sponsored bailout of banks and investment funds, has resulted in higher unemployment and poverty rates in every country.

According to figures published by the official European statistics office, Eurostat, youth unemployment in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain is presently above 30 percent.

The situation is particularly difficult in Greece, where youth unemployment has more than doubled since 2008, to reach 55.4 percent in 2012. In Spain, where a 37 percent youth unemployment rate was the norm in 2008, the crisis has rendered over 50 percent of the youth labour force jobless.

Further deterioration of the social climate in Greece, where unions have orchestrated a wave of general strikes against yet another bout of state budget cuts, this time worth 17 billion dollars, augurs ill for the future of the Union under the shadow of austerity.

In its newest Global Prospects Report, released on Nov. 5, the London-based Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that the Eurozone recession will continue through 2013, with only “marginal growth … likely” in 2014.

According to the CEBR, the outlook is particularly calamitous in Greece, Italy, and Spain, with negative economic growth prospects. The report forecasts contractions of gross domestic product (GDP) in all three countries for 2013, of seven, 1.8, and 2.2 percent respectively.

“The economic situation in some parts of Europe is moving from bad to catastrophic,” Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of CEBR and a co?author of the report, told IPS. “There is a danger that the economic problems will spill over into social breakdown in many areas of Europe as unemployment soars and governments run out of money.”

Yet another analysis of the economic and social situation in Europe, released Nov. 1 and authored by two leading economists at the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), goes even further, arguing that the austerity programmes across the continent are “self-defeating”.

The NIESR’s most benign scenario for 2013 forecasts a worsening of the present depression. According to their calculations, the austerity programmes will have a negative impact on the debt-growth ratios of 8.9 percent in Greece, 7.7 percent in Portugal, 4.2 percent in Spain, and 1.9 percent in Italy.

Jonathan Portes, co-author of the study, told IPS that his analysis of the present fiscal policies in Europe leads to the conclusion that “while in ‘normal times’, fiscal consolidation would lead to a fall in debt-GDP ratios, in current circumstances…fiscal consolidation is indeed likely to be ‘self-defeating’ for the EU collectively.”

Youth hit hard by austerity

In a study released late October, the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound), an autonomous body of the EU, emphasised, “The immediate future of Europe depends upon the 94 million Europeans aged between 15 and 29.”

According to the study, the youth unemployment rate was 33.6 percent (or 19.5 million people) in 2011, “the lowest level ever recorded in the history of the European Union".

However, there is huge variation between EU member states, with rates varying from below 7 percent in Luxembourg and the Netherlands, to above 17 percent in Bulgaria, Ireland, Italy, and Spain.

“The consequences of a lost generation are not merely economic,” the Eurofound report warns, “but are societal, with the risk of young people opting out of democratic participation in society.”

The drain of an unproductive youth force – in terms of lost output – amounts to some 153 billion euros annually, or 1.2 percent of the EU’s GDP, according to the Eurofound report.

Stefano Scarpetta, deputy director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), charged that Europe was “failing in its social contract” with the young, and warned that political disenchantment could reach levels similar to those that sparked the North African uprisings that have been dubbed the Arab Spring.

According to a report released last May by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), unemployment among young people in North Africa jumped five percentage points in 2011, to 27.9 percent.

“North Africa and the Middle East stand out in terms of their overall unemployment problem and these are the only two regions where the unemployment rate exceeded 10 percent in 2011 for the population aged 15 and above,” according to the ILO.

That situation is now true in various EU member states, where discontent has emerged in the form of ‘indignados’ in Spain and mass youth mobilisations in Portugal, Greece, and elsewhere in Southern Europe.

Peter Matjasic, president of the European Youth Forum, the representative body of more than 90 national youth councils and international youth NGOs, urged the EU to make the European “vision (of a social democratic society) a reality for a generation.”

Matjasic also demanded that expectations raised by the bestowal of the Nobel Peace Prize upon the EU this year be fulfilled. “The Nobel committee (talked) of the success of the ‘European dream’ and European leaders this week spoke about strengthening it. But without investing in youth now, it is in danger of becoming a lost dream.”

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Neoliberal Political Economy: Regressive Distribution on a Global Scale

Global Geopolitics & Political Economy

By Alan F. Fogelquist, Ph.D

This essay discusses some of the main characteristics of today’s neoliberal political and economic order. Other terms exist to describe the same general set of institutions and policy prescriptions, but neoliberalism is a convenient expression for designating them in one word that is now widely used and understood.

Neoliberalism is now used as a generic term to characterize an economic ideology that favors unrestricted “free” markets, “free trade”, macro-economic stability, and a set of related economic policies. Neoliberal ideology favors unrestricted freedom of private corporations to pursue profit, the privatization of public enterprises and services, and the elimination or reduction of public or government control, regulation, and guidance of economic activity. Neoliberal policy prescriptions give priority to the prevention and control of inflation over economic growth and employment. In some versions of neoliberalism, there are also prescriptions for tax reductions for corporations and upper income groups under the assumption extra income retained after tax reduction will be reinvested in productive capacity. The ideology also calls for free trade and the elimination of tariffs or government support of domestic manufacturing. The ideology assumes that unregulated markets will correct themselves and produce optimal outcomes for society as a whole.

Over the decades neoliberal ideology has evolved and received a variety of labels ranging from monetarism in the 1980s to the Washington Consensus in later years. Despite some changes and refinement, the policy prescriptions have remained much the same in terms of their regressive effects on distribution of income and wealth and also their contribution to financialization of the economy and the decline of the manufacturing industry in many countries. Rightwing politicians have culled political slogans from popularized works of neoliberal economists or political ideologues like Milton Friedman and his successors. In advanced developed economies, the introduction of neoliberal institutions and policies began in the 1980s under the governments of Ronald Reagan in the United States and Margaret Thatcher in the UK In subsequent years neoliberal policy came to dominate much of the economic landscape of the capitalist world and in one form or another was adopted by major political parties and governments in many countries. In the United States both Republican and Democratic governments adopted key elements of neoliberal thinking including free trade dogmas. The notable exception to neoliberal capitalism in recent decades has been in the rapidly developing economies of Asia that rejected some of the core doctrines and practices of neoliberalism as practiced in the United States and much of Europe and Latin America.

Set of Badges, Labels, Tags "Made in China". Vector illustration. Grunge stamp with text The neoliberal economic order produces institutionalized inequality – unequal power, unequal advantage, and unequal exchange. Those without power are forced to exchange their labor and expertise for less than the real value of their product or contribution. While any economic transaction has the potential for unequal or unfair exchange, the current system of rewards is completely in favor of those with political and economic bargaining power and against those who depend on wages and salaries for their work, either physical or mental. The neoliberal order is one where institutionalized inequality and perverse incentives prevent technological advances from reaching their full potential to improve the human condition. Instead tiny minorities reap most of the benefits while the majority of the world’s inhabitants receive marginal benefits or are left out. Neoliberal ideology based on fallacious assumptions presented as science is used to justify regressive economic policy and race-to-the bottom competition based on lower wages and special state favors to monopolistic or speculative “enterprises.” In the Orwellian language of neoliberalism speculation is confused with productive investment. Speculation becomes coterminous with investment.

The vast expansion of the global market economy to include countries with enormous populations of desperately poor workers and farmers has created an enormous downward pressure on employment and wages in countries that had achieved higher incomes and economic security for the wage and salary workers after decades of economic development and social struggles. Globalization following the inclusion of China, India, and Russia in the world market economy has created race-to-the bottom competition and increased levels of exploitation. It has contributed to the imbalance between wage income paid to workers directly engaged in production and the performance of services on the one hand and income in the form of profits or executive and upper managerial salaries that accrues to the economically powerful on the other hand.

Also intensifying inequality has been the change in policy regime starting in the early 1980s when neoliberal monetarist macroeconomic policy replaced more expansionary policies of the early post war compact between labor and capital. Also accentuating inequality were measures to break labor unions and increase the power of employers to step up the level of exploitation of workers and employees.

Increased profit and upper managerial and executive income beyond increases in labor productivity have repeatedly produced a chronic imbalance between effective demand or purchasing power and the supply of goods and services even in times of economic expansion. This has resulted in a growing accumulation of income at the top with no productive outlet for investment. The existence of large pools of capital without profitable outlets for productive investment fuels speculation. These pools of capital are funneled into financial institutions that clamor for deregulation in order to have a free hand to engage in high-risk asset speculation driving up the price of tangible and intangible assets and distorting the structure of the economy. The collapse of asset prices fueled by speculation has led to repeated financial panics and economic crises. Following neoliberal policy prescriptions, step-by-step deregulation of financial institutions in the 1980s and 1990s accelerated the growth of the private financial sector at the expense of manufacturing and public services. The growth of the financialized speculative sector fueled by excess profits, higher managerial income, and increased exploitation of an underpaid labor force also increased the capacity of large corporations and wealthy individuals to use their financial power to gain political power. The same corporations and individuals were able to influence politics through domination of the mass media, intensified lobbying efforts, funding of electoral campaigns, funding of policy institutes, and ideological influence over business and economic education in universities. All of these activities contributed to the growing dominance of plutocratic capitalism over policy discussion and to the promotion of policies that serve the interests of tiny wealthy minorities rather than the general public.

After decades of testing neoliberal ideology as the dominant paradigm it is now possible to see its deep flaws and inhuman consequences. Austerity economics prescribed by neoliberal politicians and economists, especially during a crisis or recession produces massive unemployment and downward pressure on the wages and salaries. These policies intensify and prolong recessions. Free trade dogma has led to a decline in manufacturing and the transfer of factories and jobs to low wage countries placing additional downward pressure on wages and loss of employment in many middle income and developed countries without proportional benefits to workers and ordinary people in poor countries. Outsourcing of information technology and jobs to lower wage countries now threatens the economic security even in the technologically advanced sectors of developed economies. In the meantime factory workers in countries that have gained jobs from this zero-sum activity are severely exploited and live under inhuman conditions while the multinational elites profit from the transfer. Everywhere it is the multinational capitalists and elites in the emerging economic giants like China and India that receive the benefits of uncontrolled globalization. In short, neoliberal policies have resulted in a massive transfer of income and wealth upwards and contributed to global imbalances and instability.

Unless there as a fundamental change in ideology, these trends will certainly continue and there will be major crises that inflict enormous but preventable human casualties. Highly volatile and imperfect markets characterized by unequal power, an unequal advantage, crony capitalism, reckless casino finance, environmental wreckage, and plutocratic domination of government and the media will continue their unsustainable course creating mass misery, and periodic crises.

Choice of economic policy usually involves tradeoffs between goals that may be in partial conflict such as low inflation versus high employment or cheap manufactured goods versus jobs and decent wages, but most tradeoffs benefit some groups more than others. The best tradeoffs are those that benefit the majority of the people, those engaged directly in the creation of useful goods or performance of needed services for the general population. The best tradeoffs are those that serve the public good rather than the good of tiny minorities. The real choice in economic policy boils down to who gets what and fair versus unfair exchange.

Neoliberalism is not the only analytical framework available. There are real and feasible alternatives to neoliberalism that can lead to better living conditions and better economic outcomes for the majority of the world’s inhabitants. There have always been alternative frameworks for economic and political analysis and successful examples of alternative economic practices that have led to better outcomes. Examples of successful economic policies outside the framework of neoliberalism can be found in many countries and forms ranging from government policies to promote the development of domestic manufacturing in East Asia and Brazil to social democratic support for health care, education, vocational training and pensions for the elderly in Scandinavia, Germany, and France. Argentina offers lessons for overcoming financial crises aggravated by neoliberal austerity and some examples of worker owned enterprises. The Mondragon industrial cooperative in Spain shows that plutocratic ownership of industry is not the only alternative. Many countries and regions have successful experiments in public support for green development and efforts to preserve the environment.

No set of policies is perfect, but some serve the needs of the many and human well being much better than others. From the beginning, there have been social scientists, economists and observers of economic and political life who have challenged what proved to be flawed assumptions and claims of the neoliberals. The reason for the power and influence of neoliberalism lies largely in the tremendous economic, political, and media power of the minorities that have benefited from its prescriptions. In future essays we will go into more detail in our analysis of the dynamics of neoliberalism, alternative frameworks, and the experience of various regions and countries around the world.

© Copyright 2012 Alan F. Fogelquist, Ph.D. All rights reserved.

This article should not be republished or redistributed without the permission of the original author or copyright holder.

Alan F. Fogelquist is an economic historian and analyst of geopolitical and economic issues. He is editor of the Global Geopolitics & Political Economy and Real Political Economy websites.