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The Eurozone Ignores the Experience of the 1980s Latin American Debt Crisis

Here is an excellent article that reviews the parallels in the  experience of the 1980s Latin American debt crisis and that of the Eurozone today.

Eurozone ignoring parallels with Latin American debit crisis of the 1980s

Excerpt from The Guardian, 19 August 2012

By Larry Elliot, Guardian economics editor

This debit crisis is following same path as one 30 years go. Time to rethink how economics is taught to avoid another lost decade

Monday marks a significant anniversary in recent economic history for it was on this day in 1982 that Mexico announced a moratorium on its international debts. The default marked the start of what became known as the third world debt crisis.

Three decades later that crisis is now the first world debt crisis. For Mexico read Greece. For American, British and Japanese banks recycling the 1970s windfall profits of oil producers to sub-prime Latin American governments read US and European banks pumping out cheap credit to sub-prime mortgage holders. For the syndicated loans that allowed banks to lend recklessly without the necessary prudential checks read the securitisation of loans that allowed banks to bundle up the good mortgages with the bad and sell them.

Read the full article on the Guardian website.


A New Essay on the Neoliberal Order

Neoliberalism and the Neoliberal Order – Regressive Economics on a Global Scale

An essay on real economics by Alan F. Fogelquist

Real Political Economy

By Alan F. Fogelquist

This essay discusses some of the main characteristics of today’s neoliberal political and economic order. Other terms exist to describe the same general set of institutions and policy prescriptions, but neoliberalism is a convenient expression for designating them in one word that is now widely used and understood.

Neoliberalism is now used as a generic term to characterize an economic ideology that favors unrestricted “free” markets, “free trade”, macro-economic stability, and a set of related economic policies. Neoliberal ideology favors unrestricted freedom of private corporations to pursue profit, the privatization of public enterprises and services, and the elimination or reduction of public or government control, regulation, and guidance of economic activity.

Read the full essay on the Real Political Economy Site


First-time Homebuyer Tax Credit was Temporary Fix At Best

The credit led to an enormous transfer of wealth to sellers and lenders at the expense of buyers.


For Immediate Release: April 18, 2012
Contact: Alan Barber, (202) 293-5380 x115

Washington, D.C.- In February of 2009, with the housing market in a free fall, Congress decided to add a first-time homebuyer tax credit to the stimulus proposed by President Obama. While the credit paused the decline in home prices, a new report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) shows this was only temporary and actually resulted in luring millions of homebuyers into paying too much for their homes.

“While offering a tax credit to new homebuyers did lead to a jump in home sales, a big part of the story is that people who were thinking about buying in the next year or two simply bought earlier to take advantage of the credit,” said Dean Baker, author of the report and a co-director of CEPR. “Of course, after the expiration of the credit, prices began to slide as home sales fell once again.”

The report, “First Time Underwater: The Impact of the First-time Homebuyer Tax Credit,” examines the effects of the first-time homebuyer tax credit on the housing sector. Baker estimates that hundreds of billions of dollars were redistributed from new homebuyers to sellers and creditors due to the tax credit. Then the paper looks more closely at the impact of the tax credit in ten cities that were most affected by it.

With home prices falling at close to a 20 percent annual rate at the time of the passage of the stimulus package, the first-time homebuyer tax credit did temporarily reverse the drop in home prices. Unfortunately, since the housing bubble had not fully deflated at that time, this reversal could not last. In effect the credit artificially held prices above trend level.

Once the credit expired, sales plummeted and home prices began to slide again. Many of these new homeowners soon saw their mortgages ‘underwater’, a situation in which the value of a home is less than the value of their mortgage. On the other hand, those who sold their homes before the expiration of the tax credit benefited as did their lenders since they may have been forced to accept short sales or possibly deal with a foreclosure had the tax credit not pulled purchases forward. This amounted to a significant transfer of wealth from new buyers to sellers and creditors. Baker estimates the size of these transfers as ranging from $5,300 to $10,600 (in 2009 dollars) for every homebuyer who purchased a home over the 34 months from passage of the tax credit through the end of 2011.

Of course, these differences varied by region. Since the credit was capped at $8,000, it had the largest impact on the lower portion of the market in less expensive cities. To clearly demonstrate these differences, the report examines the price decline in the lower tier of the housing markets in ten major cities – Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle and Tampa. The worst losses were seen in Chicago, which saw a decline of 31.5 percent, and Atlanta, where prices in the bottom tier fell by 49.1 percent. In all ten cities, prices in the bottom tier fell by at least 10 percent between the tax-credit induced peak of 2010 and December of 2011.

While the tax credit was successful in temporarily halting the collapse of the housing sector, the report demonstrates that this was a stop-gap solution at best. By enacting this tax credit when home prices were still above their long-term trend level, this policy mainly had the effect of transferring wealth to sellers and lenders at the expense of new homebuyers, who quickly saw their mortgages go underwater after the credit expired.

 

Center for Economic and Policy Research, 1611 Connecticut Ave, NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20009
Phone: (202) 293-5380, Fax: (202) 588-1356


19 Million Jobs For U.S. Workers: The Impact Of Channeling $1.4 Trillion In Excess Liquid Asset Holdings Into Productive Investments

A new report is available at the Political Economy Research Institue, PERI.
19 Million Jobs For U.S. Workers: The Impact Of Channeling $1.4 Trillion In Excess Liquid Asset Holdings Into Productive Investments

Abstract:
Robert Pollin, James Heintz, Heidi Garrett-Peltier and Jeannette Wicks-Lim show that since 2009, U.S. commercial banks and large nonfinancial corporations have been carrying huge cash hoards and other liquid assets, totaling $1.4 trillion. Small businesses, by contrast, have been locked out of credit markets. The authors examine the impact on job creation of mobilizing these excess liquid assets into productive investments, finding that U.S. employment could expand by about 19 million jobs by the end of 2014, with unemployment falling below 5 percent. The paper discusses policies to transform these hoards into job-generating investments, both for the national economy and, specifically, the Los Angeles and Seattle regions.

Obtain the Full Report on the Political Economy Research Institute Website.


From Occupy Wall Street to Occupy Nation in just two months

This is a real populist movement–against our financial and political plutocracy

Aricans who flew bombing missions in World War II had a saying: "You know you’re on target when you start getting a lot of flak." The protesters in today’s nascent "Occupy Wall Street" movement must really be on target, then, because–boy!–they’re enduring an unrelenting barrage of rhetorical flak from political and media defenders of America’s plutocracy.

Read the full article on  Hightower LOWDOWN


Featured Articles and Reports on the Project on Defense Alternatives, PDA

Below is a Listing of Recent Articles and Reports on the Project for Defense Alternatives Site

Going for Broke: The Budgetary Consequences of Current US Defense Strategy. (printable .pdf version) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Memo #52, 25 October 2011. Shows how the Pentagaon’s adoption of more ambitious goals, strategy, and missions after the Cold War led to today’s unsustainable defense budgets. Two tables.

Strategic Adjustment to Sustain the Force: A survey of current proposals. (printable .pdf version) by Charles Knight, PDA Briefing Memo #51, 25 October 2011. A survey of five proposals by independent experts for adjusting US global strategy to new fiscal realities in ways that enhance security while avoiding ‘hollowing’ of the forces.

Pentagon Cuts in Context: No reason for “doomsday” hysteria. (printable .pdf version)by Carl Conetta. PDA Briefing Memo #50, 11 October 2011. Analyzes the potential impact of the Budget Control Act on the defense budget under different scenarios and compares likely future budget levels to past ones. Two tables.

Pentagon Review Must Aim for More than Modest Cuts in Defense Spending. (printable .pdf version) PDA Briefing Memo #49, 25 April 2011. The President’s proposal to trim DoD’s future budget plans by 6.5% or $400 billion over 12 years is a modest step. The forthcoming Pentagon review must aim higher in order to achieve sustainability. Two charts summarize past and planned Pentagon budgets.

Continuing Resolution: Congress Goes Easy on DoD. (printable .pdf version) PDA Briefing Memo #48, 17 March 2011. Examines House and Senate allocation of budget cuts to defense and non-defense accounts for 2011 fiscal year.

The Pentagon and Deficit Reduction: FY-2012 Budget Retains Exceptional Level of Defense Spending. (.html version) (printable .pdf version) PDA Briefing Memo #47, 1 March 2011. Reviews military spending plans for 2012-2016. 10 tables and charts.

Pentagon Resists Deficit Reduction. (printable .pdf version) PDA Briefing Memo #46, 30 January 2011. Examines Defense Secretary Gates’ offer to cut $78 billion from defense plans over five years. Two tables compare different spending scenarios.

Experts Letter on Defense Spending to the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. (.html version) (printable .pdf version)18 November 2010. Joint declaration by 48 top scholars and practitioners of national security policy: “We can achieve safe savings in defense if we are willing to rethink how we produce military power and how, why, and where we put it to use.”

Debt, Deficits, and Defense: A Way Forward. Report of the Sustainable Defense Task Force. 11 June 2010. The report presents options for reducing DoD’s budget — in sum saving nearly $1 trillion over the next decade. (Executive Summary).

An Undisciplined Defense:  Understanding the $2 Trillion Surge in US Defense Spending (full text .pdf file with charts and appendices) (executive summary) by Carl Conetta, PDA Briefing Report #20, 18 January 2010. Analyzes the steep rise in defense spending since 1998. 21 charts and tables.

Military Intervention and Common Sense: Focus on Land Forces (Paperback and Kindle editions) (Mobipocket edition) by Lutz Unterseher with C. Knight and C. Conetta, June 2009. Ground force options for stability operations.

Forceful Engagement: Rethinking the Role of Military Power in US Global Policy (full text .pdf with graphics) (full text .html, no graphics) (exec. summary .html), Dec 2008. The US has been using its armed forces beyond the limit of their utility

 


China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) released its 2011 Annual Report to Congress

Press Release:  Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM)

This morning, the Congressionally created, bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) released its 2011 Annual Report to Congress.

Said Scott Paul, Executive Director of the Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM):

“This morning’s annual report from the USCC is the latest wake-up call for Washington regarding China’s impact on our national and economic security. The Commission has done an exceptional job of reporting incidents of security intrusion and computer hacking, as well as the forced transfer of U.S. technology to China’s state-owned enterprises.

“This is a serious indictment of our massively flawed relationship with Beijing, and both Congress and the Administration urgently need to address these issues. As a unanimous report from a bipartisan group that includes representatives from business and labor, as well as conservatives and liberals, it is particularly striking that they agreed on the threat our nation faces, and how it must be addressed.

“We can only hope that the President, every Member of Congress, and all the Republican presidential candidates study this report thoroughly. Otherwise, they will be ill-prepared for some of the growing security challenges we face from China’s extraordinary economic and military progress.”

Ten Points to Consider from the New USCC Report

1. Even a cursory read of the report yields a wide array of pressing concerns over China’s economic and military interaction with the U.S. The opening sentence on China’s “Foreign Policy” makes clear that, “Despite Beijing’s attempts to emphasize its peaceful rise, China continues to support countries that undermine international security.” Additionally, China “appeared to sponsor numerous computer network intrusions throughout 2011.” These attacks are consistent with China’s military strategy, which “envisions the use of computer network exploitation and attack” in order to “critically disrupt the U.S. military’s ability to deploy and operate during a military contingency.”

2. China’s ongoing military expansion is funded by tremendous export-led growth. The Commission reports that China’s foreign currency reserves are “skyrocketing,” thanks in large part to a “policy of maintaining closed capital accounts.” China now holds foreign currency reserves in excess of $3 trillion, three times higher than the next largest holder of foreign currency reserves, Japan.

3. The United States is a prime funder of China’s growing wealth, with the Commission citing a record $273 billion U.S. trade deficit with China in 2010. This trade deficit “now accounts for more than 50 percent of the total U.S. trade deficit with the world.”

4. One key factor in China’s booming trade surplus is its policy of currency undervaluation. The Commission found that over the preceding 12 months, its currency, the Yuan, has appreciated by 6 percent, but economists estimate that it “remains substantially undervalued.”

5. Along with a widening trade surplus, the Chinese economy and its exports are “moving up the value chain.” A critical indicator, “advanced technology products,” shows that on a monthly basis, the U.S. “now imports roughly 560 percent more advanced technology products from China than it exports to China.” Conversely, China is shedding its low-cost, labor-intensive manufactured goods. As a share of China’s total exports, these lower-tier items have “decreased from 37 percent in 2000 to 14 percent in 2010.”

6. Beijing continues to employ a wide array of questionable practices to boost its exports. At the same time, the Commission reports that China has grown “more assertive and creative in using WTO procedures to alleviate, eliminate, and avoid certain restrictions in the Accession Protocol.” And even though the WTO has ruled that “China’s existing system of state monopoly over imports of cultural products is inconsistent with WTO obligations,” China has “not yet complied fully with the WTO ruling, and the United States has the right to initiate further proceedings to compel China to do so.”

7. Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) continue to “dominate important portions of the economy.” These SOEs benefit from a variety of industrial policy tools, including “a wide range of direct and indirect subsidies, preferential access to capital, forced technology transfer from foreign firms, and domestic procurement requirements.”

8. As the U.S. continues to face enormous domestic economic problems, and faces a web of protectionist barriers in China that limit market access for U.S. exports, the Commission wants to know what Chinese firms have been able to successfully bid for federal contracts. Specifically, the Commission believes Congress should urge the Administration to “review federally subsidized contracts provided under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and report on the extent to which Chinese-produced goods and services were procured” with U.S. taxpayer funds.

9. An additional concern is the transfer of sensitive U.S. technology to Chinese firms, with foreign investors “frequently forced into joint ventures or other technology-sharing arrangements.” Although China agreed in 2001 to stop explicitly requiring foreign companies to surrender their technology to China in return for market access and investment opportunities, Beijing “still employs several tactics to coerce foreign firms to share trade secrets with Chinese competitors.” This includes an industrial policy that seeks to “circumvent accepted intellectual property protections and to extort technology from U.S. companies.”

10. Among the Commission’s key recommendations to Congress and the Administration are the use of “all necessary remedies authorized by WTO rules” to counter Beijing’s extensive, “trade-distorting” subsidies. Additionally, the President should direct the USTR to move aggressively to “bring cases to the WTO to enforce intellectual property rights.”

A full list of specific recommendations begins on page 355 of the report. Read the full report.

The Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM) is a unique non-partisan, non-profit partnership forged to strengthen manufacturing in the U.S. AAM brings together a select group of America’s leading manufacturers and the United Steelworkers to promote creative policy solutions on priorities such as international trade, energy security, health care, retirement security, currency manipulation, and other issues of mutual concern. For more information, please visit www.americanmanufacturing.org.


The Benefits of Medicaid | Mother Jones

The Benefits of Medicaid | Mother Jones

| Thu Jul. 7, 2011 8:45 AM PDT

When education researchers study charter schools, the gold standard is to compare kids who won a lottery to get in with kids who lost the lottery. That way you can be pretty sure that the kids themselves are pretty similar, and any differences are really, truly due to the school itself.

It would be nice to do the same thing for healthcare, but that’s a dicier matter. What are you going to do, hold a lottery and give only the winners medical coverage? Of course not. Unless you’re Oregon. which in 2008 decided to expand Medicaid but didn’t have enough money to expand it to everyone who wanted it. So they held a lottery, and the lucky winners received Medicaid coverage.

Reearchers have now completed a study comparing the winners to the losers, and Jon Cohn reports on the results: on the positive side, winners got more health care and reported better health outcomes. On the negative side, emergency room use didn’t go down and overall spending increased. And then there was this:

Read the full article on Mother Jones.

 


The Sorrow and the Pity of Economists (Like DeLong) Not Learning from Their Mistakes « naked capitalism

The Sorrow and the Pity of Economists (Like DeLong) Not Learning from Their Mistakes « naked capitalism

By Yves Smith on Naked Capitalism
Thursday, July 7, 2011

I hate to seem to be beating up on Brad DeLong. Seriously.

As I’ve said before, he is one of the few economists willing to admit error and not try later to minimize or recant his admission (unlike, say, Greenspan). And he seems genuinely perplexed and remorseful. This puts his heads and shoulders above a lot of his colleagues, at least the sort whose opinion carries weight in policy circles.

Even with DeLong making an earnest effort to figure out why he went wrong, his latest musings, via a Bloomberg op-ed, “Sorrow and Pity of Another Liquidity Trap,” show how hard it is for economist to unlearn what they think they know. And as the great philosopher Will Rogers warned us, “It’s not what you know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know that ain’t so.”

So it’s important to regard DeLong as an unusually candid mainstream economist, and treat his exposition as reasonably representative if you could somehow get his peers to take a hard, jaundiced look at how wrong they have been of late.

Read the full article on Naked Capitalism.