UNDERSTANDING INDIA MANDATE 2009

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Saturday, May 23, 2009

By M RAMA RAO

Bihar and Uttar Pradesh hold the key to understanding Mandate 2009. To a lesser extent Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu.

Congress suffered a set back to its ambitions in Bihar – it got one less than the three seats it had. But in neighbouring Maya-Mulayam turf, the Grand Old Party made substantial gains (21) to the surprise of psephologists and political pundits alike. In both states, the Congress was forced to go solo after yesterday’s allies turned against it, floated their own front and hoped to be either kings or kingmakers after May 16. A virtue out of necessity.

What was the result? Bihar voters did not see any need to pamper the party of Gandhis. But in UP, the opposite was the case. The Gandhis were pampered to such an extent that the family faithful has begun to see the return of the good old glorious days for the Congress.

Bihar voters were happy with their local hero, Nitish Kumar. Because he is walking the talk. Unlike his rivals, Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan, who have been nationalised by capital’s glitterati. The UP electorate had high hopes on Mayawati. She came on the scene to end Mulayam’s goonda raj but delivered ‘statue raj’. The level of frustration is such that BSP stood rejected in all but two of the 17 reserved seats for dalits. So, time for another experiment.

The message from the two largest Aryavarta states is clear. Electorate is unwilling to be swayed by slogans. They want good governance. They want responsive government. In fact, the message from Orissa is no less identical. Chief Minister Navin Patnaik cannot converse, much less address a public meeting, in Oriya. Yet he has been rewarded with a third term, brushing aside the so called anti-incumbency factor. It has become fashionable in the recent past to attribute the defeat of a ruling party at the hustings to the anti-incumbency and the vote for the challenger to the negative vote. A defeat is a defeat. It is rejection what the ruling party has come to symbolise – bad governance.

What saved the day for Rajasekhara Reddy in Andhra Pradesh and Muthavel Karunanidhi in Tamilnadu was, what else but good governance. Reddy, a doctor by training took medical care literally to the door-step of the poor under his Arogya Sri programme named after Rajiv. His government has tied up with most private hospitals in the state for free treatment of the poor. ‘Jalayagnam’- massive irrigation programme (dubbed by critics as dhana yagnam) has started taking waters to parched lands. Law and order was (is) not bad with left extremism of the Naxalites firmly under check.

That is why all the negative images brought home day-in-day–out by the plethora of TV channels in the state have failed to undermine him. And he was able to neutralise the challenge thrown up by old-foe Chandrababu Naidu, who had come up with mouth watering, eye catching schemes like money transfer and colour TVs to the poor. Chiranjeevi, film star turned politician in a hurry, offered no fight with his Praja Rajyam. In fact, Chiranjeevi tasted defeat in one of the two assembly constituencies he had contested and his party failed to open its account in the 15th Lok Sabha.

Karunanidhi ‘Thatha’ (grandfather) knows he is in his sun set years. He also knows TN electorate. He did match word- for-word of his betenoire Jayalalithaa’s pro-Eelam rhetoric and undertook a ‘breakfast -to -lunch’ fast. Yet the voters took these compulsive Dravidian theatrics they saw on the colour TV (the DMK government is providing free of cost) the in their stride and rewarded him and his ally from Delhi, the Congress.

Mamata’s gains in West Bengal are no less due to the inept handling of public protests by chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. From Singur to Nandigram and to Kolkata, the story went on repeating – the story of a government that has become insensitive and arrogant and of a ruling party cadre that has become corrupt and mafia of sorts – there are instances even in Kolkata, where police refuse to register a case until a local Marxist biggie gives the go ahead. In rural Bengal, the situation is much worse. A complainant must first visit the local Marxist boss, take his clearance (in writing?) and then go to the Thana for registering case, according to several sources.

Frankly, good governance alone is not the be all and end all. Perception also matters. Also matters is an X- factor, which defies any conventional definition. That is why it is too simplistic to say Rahul factor turned the tide for the Congress or NREG (rural job guarantee scheme) made the rural voter worship the Congress deities every day.

Since the rural job scheme is implemented by the state governments, they too should get benefit electorally? More over, the Communists doggedly pushed the scheme through North Block and Yojana Bhavan. So some spin off benefits should have accrued to them. But did not. Historically speaking the Congress has always been criticising the state governments of taking away the credit for central schemes. So, this time around did the states become generous to the extent of forfeiting all credit?

This is not to postulate a theory to deny credit to the Congress party’s crown prince. He criss-crossed the country, travelled nearly 87,000 km in 35 days and addressed 122 rallies. Pretty hard work for a 39-year-old, who is fighting his second general election.

Problem with the Congress is that it has no leader with pan-India appeal other than the mother and son Gandhi. Now, Rahul is reworking the Congress matrix. Results will take time to come. His acceptance by the electorate shows a new youth icon is born.

The opposition contributed no less to the Congress victory. First penchant of every one from Mayawati to Chandrababu Naidu to join the Prime Ministerial sweepstakes ( at one time there were more than seven prime minister hopefuls from BJP, third front and fourth front). Second their inability to overcome the credibility gap. Third utterly repulsive negative campaign.

Whatever be the glamour quotient of American electoral jigsaw for the ‘Yatri’ and his spin masters, it puts off average Indian for its no holds barred attacks and counter attacks and the practice of digging into the past and private lives of the leaders.

Advani, Modi et al made the mistake of personally targeting Manmohan Singh. True, the Congress spokesmen like Manu Abhishek Singhvi, paid back but their choicest expressions, like ‘Night Watchman’ reserved for BJP patriarch are mild when compared to the Modisms and the Advani speak on Singh. Varun Gandhi compounded BJP misery by his chaste hate speeches.

BJP’s biggest mistake, however, is to believe that there is a Hindu vote waiting eagerly for its charioteer to come and collect. There is no Hindu vote or minority vote as such. The vote is for some one who cares, not merely appears to care, for someone who reads the pulse of India, not as an abstract science but as something vibrant and rearing to go without crutches. It’s a ‘free hand’ to reshape the India landscape.

Simply put, Indian electorate don’t get carried away by GDP growth rates, doctored inflation figures, and above all, corporate mumbo-jumbo. Arrogance has no place in matters of governance in India. Humility is a very much cherished virtue the electorate looks for in its Netas. It loathes excuses. The electorate likes ideology but is not hostage to it.

What a message, any doubt?

© Copyright 2009 Malladi Rama Rao. All rights reserved.

This article may not be republished, broadcast, framed, or redistributed without the written permission the original author or copyright holder.

About the Author

Malladi Rama Rao is an analyst and writer on the Indian political scene and geo-political and security issues of South Asia. He directs a Weekly Feature Service in English, Syndicate Features, in colloboration with his wife Vaniram. He is also the India Editor of Asian Tribune.

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Featured Image:

The Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh being greeted by Shri L.K. Advani, the former Vice President, Shri Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and the former Prime Minister, Shri I.K. Gujral, at a Swearing-in Ceremony, at Rashtrapati Bhavan, in New Delhi on May 22, 2009.

Source: Press Information Bureau – Government of India (http://pib.nic.in/)