POLITICS-US: Gates Strategy Stresses Unconventional Warfare

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Jim Lobe*

WASHINGTON, Jul 31 (IPS) – U.S. defence strategy should be focused primarily in the short to medium term on unconventional threats, particularly ”violent extremist movements such as al Qaeda and its associates”, while it ”hedge(s)” against the growing military power of ”rogue states such as Iran and North Korea” and potential rivals, notably China and Russia, according to major policy guidance released here Thursday by Pentagon chief Robert Gates.

In his first ”National Defence Strategy”, Gates also called repeatedly for maintaining close cooperation with allies, both new and old, a contrast to the much more unilateralist orientation of previous Pentagon papers produced under his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld, especially during the first term of President George W. Bush (2001-2005).

”The United States…must strengthen and expand alliances and partnerships,” he wrote. ”The U.S. alliance system has been a cornerstone of peace and security for more than a generation and remains the key to our success.”

”We cannot prevail if we act alone,” Gates wrote in the introduction to the 23-page statement, which also, however, stressed that the U.S. must retain to the greatest extent possible its ”freedom of action in the global commons and strategic access to important regions of the world to meet our national security needs.”

”The well-being of the global economy is contingent on ready access to energy resources,” according to the document. ”Notwithstanding national efforts to reduce dependence on oil, current trends indicate an increasing reliance on petroleum products from areas of instability in the coming years, not reduced reliance.”

Throughout the document, Gates also repeatedly stressed the importance of ”soft power” — as opposed to military strength alone — in U.S. defence strategy, particularly with respect to what has been called ”nation-building” and public diplomacy.

”We as a nation must strengthen not only our military capabilities, but also reinvigorate other important elements of national power and develop the capability to integrate, tailor and apply these tools as needed,” according to the report.

”The Department of Defence has taken on many of these burdens… (and) will need to institutionalise and retain these capabilities, but this is no replacement for civilian involvement and expertise,” he wrote, echoing appeals for Congress to beef up the State Department and its sub-agencies in charge of development and public diplomacy that he has made on numerous occasions over the past nine months.

The publication of the new strategy caps a lengthy process of internal debate since Gates took over from Rumsfeld in late 2006 on what should be the major priorities of a Defence Department that is spending more than 600 billion dollars a year, that is caught up in costly counter-insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan for which it is was initially poorly prepared, and that has historically favoured high-tech, big-ticket conventional-weapons systems that have fattened the balance sheets of its major private contractors.

Gates has argued both inside the Pentagon and in public for giving a much higher priority to so-called ”small wars”, that is fighting terrorist movements, such as al Qaeda, and insurgencies, such as Afghanistan’s Taliban and various factions within Iraq. He has insisted that, given Washington’s present overwhelming military superiority over any potential rival, such conflicts pose the most likely threats to U.S. interests and international stability over at least the next decade or two.

”Overall, the kinds of capabilities we will most likely need in the years ahead will often resemble the kinds of capabilities we need today,” he warned in a speech two months ago. ”What we must guard against is the kind of backsliding that has occurred in the past, where if nature takes it course, these kinds of capabilities — that is, counterinsurgency — tend to wither on the vine.”

”U.S. predominance in traditional warfare is not unchallenged, but is sustainable for the medium term given current trends,” he noted.

That argument has been contested by a number of senior officers — quietly backed by major defence contractors whose financial contributions to political campaigns and widespread geographical distribution guarantee them entree into Congressional offices on Capitol Hill — who have warned that too great a swing of the pendulum toward what, after all, is a distinctly low-tech form of warfare could result in serious vulnerabilities on the conventional front.

As a result, the new document seeks to achieve a balance between the two sides. Indeed, in releasing the new strategy Thursday, Gates noted ”the reality… that conventional and strategic force modernisation programmes are strongly supported in the services and in the Congress.”

Still, the strategy strongly affirms Gates’ emphasis on the importance of counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism ”For the foreseeable future (the strategic) environment will be defined by a global struggle against a violent extremist ideology that seeks to overturn the international state system,” he wrote, referring to al Qaeda and its associates. He referred to that struggle, as had Rumsfeld as ”the Long War”.

Comparing that ideology to communism and fascism, he stressed that while ”Iran and Afghanistan remain the central fronts in the struggle,” military success in both countries by itself ”will not bring victory”.

”The use of force plays a role, yet military efforts to capture or kill terrorists are likely to be subordinate to measures to promote local participation in government and economic programs to spur development, as well as efforts to understand and address the grievances that often lie at the heart of insurgencies,” the document went on.

”For these reasons, arguably the most important component of the struggle against violent extremists is not the fighting we do ourselves, but how well we help prepare our partners to defend and govern themselves.”

On other possible threats, the paper singles out China and Russia, as well as the surviving members of Bush’s ”Axis of Evil” — Iran and North Korea — for special mention.

”China is one ascendant state with the potential for competing with the United States,” according to the document. ”For the foreseeable future, we will need to hedge against China’s growing military modernisation and the impact of its strategic choices upon international security.” At the same time, he called for enhanced ”engagement” between the two countries’ militaries.

And, while Washington shares interests with Russia and ”can collaborate with it in a variety of ways”, Moscow’s ”retreat from democracy and its increasing economic and political intimidation of its neighbours give cause for concern.”

Nonetheless, ”we shall seek to anchor China and Russia as stakeholders in the (international) system,” it went on. ”Similarly, we look to India to assume greater responsibility as a stakeholder…commensurate with its growing economic, military, and soft power.”

*Jim Lobe’s blog on U.S. foreign policy, and particularly the neo-conservative influence in the Bush administration, can be read at http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/.


POLITICS: U.N.’s Darfur Force Left Stranded, Critics Say

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Omid Memarian

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 31 (IPS) – As the U.N. Security Council debated the wording of a resolution extending the peacekeeping force in Darfur, Sudan for another year, a coalition of human rights groups and NGOs criticised the world body and the international community for failing to back up the mission with basic equipment.

Wrangling over the resolution continued Thursday as diplomats considered delaying a potential indictment of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad Al-Bashir by The Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC), whose chief prosecutor earlier this month presented evidence of his role in war crimes and genocide in Darfur.

”It is reflective of the failure of political will across the board on everything that has to do with Darfur and Sudan,” said Amjad Atallah, senior director of international policy and advocacy for the Save Darfur Coalition, which released a report this week on the persistent logistical challenges facing the U.N. mission in the troubled region.

A year ago Thursday, the Security Council voted unanimously to deploy U.N. peacekeepers under the auspices of the joint U.N.-African Union Hybrid Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) to protect civilians there. This vote, which came after negotiations with the Sudanese government, raised hopes that after four years of mass killings and displacements, the international community would finally live up to its responsibility to protect millions of Darfur residents driven from their homes by conflict.

However, as of June this year, the UNAMID troop level was still at only 11,359 personnel, far below the target operational force of 26,000. And of the 18 transport helicopters required by the force, not a single one has yet been offered by U.N. member states. This compares to an estimated 350 such helicopters in use in Iraq, activists say.

The report, titled ”Grounded; The International Community’s Betrayal of UNAMID”, focuses on the failure of troop-contributing countries to provide helicopters for UNAMID to enhance its mobility and preparedness. It sets out for the first time which states have the necessary helicopters and estimates how many are available for deployment to Darfur.

It identifies a number of countries — including the Czech Republic, India, Italy, Romania, Spain and Ukraine — that have large numbers of helicopters that meet the required specifications and are not in mission rotation elsewhere. Many of these helicopters are gathering dust in hangars when they could be saving lives in Darfur, the report charges.

Thomas Withington, an international aviation expert and author of the report, said in a conference call with reporters Wednesday that helicopters represent a very simple and essential concept — mobility. ”It means a way of responding timely to incidents as they occur around the Darfur region, and the troops can respond rapidly to incidents when they are developing,” he said.

Sudan’s Darfur region covers an area of some 493,180 square kilometers — roughly the size of France.

”It is becoming very difficult to help Darfuris on the ground, who are suffering from continual attacks,” he noted.

Withington said that helicopters are also important in terms of casualty evacuation. ”People who are familiar with operations in Iraq and Afghanistan would know that the lives of soldiers and civilians and chances of surviving from injuries improve dramatically [with access to helicopters],” he said.

Since the conflict broke out in February 2003, the U.N. estimates that as many as 400,000 people have been killed and another 2.5 million displaced from their homes. Entire villages have been destroyed, and thousands of women and girls raped.

”The member states of the Security Council, and especially the P5 [Britain, France, Russia, China and the U.S.] have authorised the ICC to investigate the killing in Sudan, they’ve authorised the hybrid protection force, they’ve authorised Ambassador Salim to launch a peace process that would conclude with an agreement for Sudan,” said Atallah.

”In each case, however, when required to provide back-up efforts, it failed, and the failure to provide helicopters has direct consequences for the people on the ground and for the peacekeepers,” he said.

”It’s now seven months since the force was operational,” he said. ”No heavy lift helicopters have been transferred or provided making it impossible for the force to be mobile, confront aggression or even defend itself,” Atallah added.

”Since January first, according to the secretary general, 190,000 Darfuris have been displaced, and nine people have lost their lives,” he said. ”From the perspective of the coalition, it is outrageous that the members of the Security Council send troops into a conflict zone without the minimum of the equipment needed to protect themselves.”

The report identifies more than 20 countries with surplus aircraft that could be made available for the mission, and notes that NATO member states alone could jointly provide 104 such helicopters, almost six times the requirement.

”I encourage European governments and the United States to come forward and tell the world what they’ve got available and what they can make available,” Withington said.

Writing in the International Herald Tribune Wednesday. Salim Salim, a former prime minister of Tanzania and, until recently, the African Union’s chief mediator for Darfur, said, ”If the international community is serious about fulfilling its responsibility to protect civilians in Darfur, it can start by providing the basics that UNAMID urgently needs.”

”Such support could have saved some of those peacekeepers who died this month gallantly trying to protect civilians. The least we can do in their memory is to make sure that no more civilians or peacekeepers perish because of resource constraints,” he wrote.


BRAZIL: Biodiesel to Bring Electricity to Amazon Villages

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Jul 31 (IPS) – Oil from native tucuma, ouricurí and murumurú palm trees will be used to provide electricity to isolated communities in the depths of the Brazilian Amazon, which are too remote to supply with power by conventional means.

A research team is preparing to start producing biodiesel this year at a plant in Carauarí, a district of 25,000 people that can only be reached by a 1,600-kilometre river journey, or by a two-and-a-half hour flight from Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state.

Roberto Figliuolo, an expert with the National Institute for Amazon Research (INPA), told IPS that there are ”10 promising palm species,” which are found in ”dense natural stands” and yield good quantities of oil. However, the team has worked most intensively with the tucuma palm because it is abundant and already has a partially developed production chain.
[Read more...]


HEALTH-KENYA: Women’s Choices Could Change Cities

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Rose N. Oronje

NAIROBI, Jul 31 (IPS) – This year the world reaches an invisible but momentous milestone: for the first time in history, more than half its population will be living in urban areas. In Kenya, rapid urbanisation is creating deepening poverty among urban residents.

According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report ‘State of the World Population’ published last year, poor people will make up a large part of future urban growth. Most urban growth in developing countries now stems from natural increase (more births than deaths) rather than migration from rural areas.

”But wherever it comes from, the growth of urban areas includes huge numbers of poor people. Ignoring this basic reality will make it impossible either to plan for inevitable and massive city growth or to use urban dynamics to help relieve poverty,” states the report.

The UN Human Settlements Programme (UN Habitat) estimates that more than half of the residents the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, are living in slums, where unemployment is high, livelihoods are unreliable, housing is poor, and basic amenities such as running water and proper sanitation are lacking.
[Read more...]


IRAQ: Police Bombings Raise New Fears

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Ali al-Fadhily and Dahr Jamail*

FALLUJAH, Jul 31 (IPS) – A tense security situation in this volatile city has worsened after some policemen found bombs planted on the roofs of their houses.

Astonishing attacks have been launched against police leaders during the past weeks in Fallujah, 69 km west of Baghdad, after reports of the U.S. and Iraqi government’s plans to raid active and sleeping militant cells in the city.

”There were attacks that targeted senior officers, and we thank god they failed and our colleagues are safe,” Major Abdul Aziz of the Fallujah Police told IPS. ”Investigations are still ongoing to see who was behind the attacks, and it is too early to point out motives, although they appeared to be of al-Qaeda style.”

”On Monday morning, Jul. 21, we were startled by an explosion in the house of Colonel Issa al-Issawi, who is known as the leader of the campaign against militants in Fallujah and surroundings house,” Mahmood Hakky, an English language teacher who lives near the colonel told IPS. ”To our surprise, the explosion took place on the roof where at least four guards were posted.”

Hakky said many Fallujah police force leaders arrived to check whether Col. Issawi was safe. In the ensuing chaos he saw two policemen grappling with one another.

”One of them was warning his colleagues that the other was a suicide attacker, and asking them to take cover. Then another policeman fired towards both of them,” Hakky told IPS. ”All of us ran away, and then the second bomb went off. Many policemen were killed and injured in the two blasts. These have again ended our dreams of security.”

Fallujah residents say they are shocked that one of the bombs was planted on the rooftop of the best-guarded house in the city, and the other was on the body of a policeman who was supposed to guard against bombings.

Many residents fear that Col. Issawi might now take revenge action carrying out widespread raids and detentions.

Police officers are among those who suspect Col. Issawi’s credentials. ”Col. Issawi has been a police officer for over 20 years, meaning he is one of Saddam Hussein’s officers who agreed to continue although the country was occupied by the Americans,” retired police captain Salim Aziz told IPS. ”People of Fallujah know that he helped al-Qaeda, worked with the Islamic Party, and now is the right arm of the American occupation.”

Col. Issawi works closely with the so-called Awakening Groups, a huge militia comprised largely of former resistance fighters, each paid approximately 300 dollars a month û primarily to not attack occupation forces.

A U.S. soldier who served in al-Anbar province (where Fallujah is located) during the formation of the Awakening Groups in early 2007 spoke with IPS on condition of anonymity.

”We knew that many of the members of the Awakening Forces were members of al-Qaeda,” he said. ”So of course we didn’t trust them.”

Some residents of Fallujah believe the bombing against Col. Issawi was a revenge attack by relatives of people executed by the Fallujah police force during early 2007.

”It was said that about 100 young men were executed inside Fallujah police station by the Awakening militias in January and February 2007. It became clear later that the executioners were Fallujah police leaders following orders issued by the U.S. military from the headquarters next door,” a human rights activist in the city, speaking on terms of anonymity because of the prevailing atmosphere of fear told IPS. ”It seems that we Iraqis will all kill each other as long as this U.S. occupation is paying our leaders to widen the gap between us.”

The other bomb exploded at the gate of the home of Captain Assif Ghazi Youssif, a police intelligence officer, but the two bombs at Assawi’s house grabbed all the attention.

The U.S.-backed Awakening groups have been accused of corruption and the use of brutal tactics since their inception early 2007. Many Iraqis say they are pleased with some improvements in security in some areas of Iraq, but most continue to fear and distrust these Awakening groups.


REFUGEES: Afghans Resist Going Home

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Tarjei Kidd Olsen

OSLO, Jul 31 (IPS) – Norway’s offers of cash and its promises of reintegration support to failed asylum seekers to return voluntarily to Afghanistan has mostly been a failure, a new study finds.

None of the Afghans interviewed cited the voluntary return programme’s roughly 2,900 dollars in payment, or reintegration assistance, as a motivation. Instead, most were anxious to avoid having to live illegally in Norway or being forcibly returned in humiliation.

The report by the Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI) in Bergen in southern Norway finds that by March this year only 69 adults had returned to Afghanistan via the voluntary programme since its launch in April 2006. At least three times as many have been forcibly returned by police — an option which the report says is both ethically problematic and more expensive.

Afghan asylum seekers have become a contentious issue in Norwegian public life. All asylum seekers from Afghanistan were automatically granted asylum until 2003, when a peak in Afghan arrivals prompted the government to implement more restrictive policies.

By the launch of the programme in 2006 the asylum applications of almost 2,000 Afghans had been rejected on appeal. On the same day in May 2006 that Norway was to start the removals, a group of Afghans that were to be deported began a hunger strike in Norway’s capital Oslo.

The group, mushrooming to about 80 in a few days, called off the hunger strike 26 days later after receiving assurances that they would receive legal advice from an NGO, and that no one would be deported anywhere outside of Afghanistan’s capital Kabul before 2007, due to the unstable security situation.

Tensions flared again in May 2007, when around 70 Afghans with failed asylum applications went on a 649-kilometre protest march from the central city of Trondheim to Oslo in the face of renewed efforts by police to find and deport the Afghans living here illegally — estimated to number fewer than 1,000.

”The return programme has not been very successful as few Afghans have used it, and that is of course a result of the situation in Afghanistan. All such return programmes are completely dependent on developments in the home country,” Rolf A. Vestvik from the NGO Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) told IPS.

”It is just as much about the economic situation as the security situation, because people are not only dependent on an absence of conflict; they also need to believe that it is possible to get a job, that they can regain access to their agricultural land, and so on,” said Vestvik, who is the head of NRC’s information and advocacy department.

Convincing the Afghans to make use of the return programme has not been the only obstacle, according to the CMI report. The programme’s reintegration component, meant to offer alternative options of training, job referral or a small business start-up grant, has in reality only provided the business option, as the other options have not been institutionalised in the field.

In turn the business option, which provides returnees with a little under 2,000 dollars in goods or equipment for their start-up, has faced its own challenges. While a few businesses examined by the study had become ”moderately successful”, most ”seemed to exist only on paper, had been running for less than a couple of months, or had closed down shortly after being established.”

Many returnees simply sold the goods or equipment, as they did not consider the contribution large enough for a successful start-up, or said that they were too inexperienced to run a business.

However, one major benefit of the return programme seems to be that it allows the failed asylum seekers to return to Afghanistan in dignity, a point cited by many of those interviewed.

”This issue of humiliation, of honour, of being able to return home with your head raised high and so on, is a cultural phenomenon which it is particularly important to be aware of as part of the returns process,” Vestvik said.

”The families of the Afghans that come to Norway may have used large portions of their savings on sending them here in the hope that, for instance, the only son in the family will establish himself here and send home money. If he can’t, then it’s a greatly humiliating defeat. This cultural aspect is vital, and related to this we also think it is important to ensure that the returns programme is improved so that the Afghans have something positive to return to.”

The CMI report’s authors doubt that improvements to the programme will lead it to seem much more attractive to the failed asylum seekers. The report cautions that effectiveness ”cannot be the only criterion guiding policy,” as the human and ethical costs would be too great.

Project development director Roald Kristiansen at the Norwegian Directorate for Immigration (UDI), the government department that is responsible for considering asylum applications and that commissioned the CMI report, told IPS that the return programme is mainly relevant for Afghans that have had their asylum applications rejected.

”We actually think that it is quite generous of us to give reintegration support to people that have a duty to leave the country and that have refused to do so over a long period of time. That is how we see it, and it provides a different basis for considering the issue,” Kristiansen said.

”These are people who have completed the whole application process. In reality they have a duty to leave Norway by their own volition. However, in recognition of the fact that they are returning to a country with difficulties — even though we only return people to areas that we consider safe — we are giving them support to enable them to re-establish themselves in their home country.”

Kristiansen does not consider the return programme a failure.

”For me the report’s findings indicate that the programme has functioned reasonably well, as it was the first time that we tried something like this, and it has improved the lives of some returnees,” he said.

”Afghanistan is not the easiest country to make a return programme for either, and I’m sure you remember the context in which the programme was created, with a hunger strike, a protest march, and with powerful interest groups supporting the Afghans. Our new return programme for northern Iraq isn’t experiencing any of these problems,” Kristiansen noted.

”As for the cash and reintegration support, we were aware that this was insufficient before the release of the report, but it was the best we could do at the time. Again, remember that this was our very first such initiative, and the lessons learned have led to better integration support and a larger cash payment for our Iraq programme.”

This year has seen a new peak in Afghan asylum seekers arriving in Norway. Between January and June 330 Afghans applied for asylum, as compared to 122 during last year as a whole. The number of asylum arrivals from other countries has also increased, leading to a total that is higher than at any time since 2003 — a fact not lost on some of the media here.

Vestvik has little patience for calls for restrictions to be tightened further. ”Most refugees by far are internally displaced or go to neighbouring countries,” he told IPS. ”When you look at the numbers, when you look at the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis that have fled to poor countries such as Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, then it is of course completely lacking in perspective to start panicking when asylum seekers arriving in Norway increase from a little under 10,000 a year to a little over 10,000 a year.”


EUROPE: Transition Brings AIDS

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Claudia Ciobanu

BUCHAREST, Jul 31 (IPS) – Poverty and social displacement, increased availability of drugs, and chaos in the healthcare systems that accompanied transition from state socialism to the market economy have contributed to the spread of HIV in Eastern Europe.

Russia and the Central Asian countries that were once a part of the Soviet Union are today the worst hit by large numbers of new HIV infections. According to UNAIDS (the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS), between 2001-2007 the number of people living with HIV in Eastern Europe and Central Asia increased by 150 percent, from 630,000 to 1.6 million. More than half of the new cases were diagnosed in Russia, and over 20 percent in Ukraine.
[Read more...]


BOOKS-US: A Path Out of the Wilderness

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Ali Gharib

WASHINGTON, Jul 31 (IPS) – Helena Cobban’s new book, ”Re-Engage! America and the World After Bush”, is not aimed at a target audience of officials, policy wonks and Washington elite think-tank types. So much is clear from a tagline running across the bottom of the cover: ”An informed citizen’s guide.”

But that doesn’t mean that all the politicians and policy-makers can’t learn something from picking up a copy of Cobban’s succinct, 110-page blueprint for bring the U.S. back into the international fold ? and, in doing so, tackle some of the world’s problems.

Relying on years of experience as a journalist and activist — from both abroad and at home in the U.S. — and informed by her Quaker congregation, Cobban has developed an eye for global strategic affairs. In her book, her insight lays out simple reasons for rejoining the world community and how to go about doing so.

Cobban is quick to dismiss many of the unilateral policies of the President George W. Bush administration as the folly of the world’s ”überpower” (a term borrowed from writer Josef Joffe). But the era of the überpower has passed, and the challenges of the future — more than ever, says Cobban — require cooperation.
[Read more...]


ISRAEL: Exit Olmert, At Last

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Peter Hirschberg

JERUSALEM, Jul 31 (IPS) – The announcement Wednesday evening by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that he will resign as soon as his ruling Kadima party has chosen a new leader in mid-September did not shock Israel’s political establishment, but it did crystallise the political timetable: Israel will either have a new prime minister by early November or Israelis will be back at the polls for a general election in the first few months of next year.

Beset by corruption allegations, Olmert has been under growing pressure in recent months to stand down and he finally succumbed Wednesday, announcing at a surprise press conference at his official Jerusalem residence that he would not run in the Kadima leadership primaries to be held Sep. 17.

”Once the party has chosen a new leader, I will resign from my post as prime minister to enable them to put together a new government quickly and efficiently,” he said.

Olmert has never fully recovered from the Lebanon war two years ago, when he launched a fierce military campaign against Hezbollah after the Shia group abducted two Israeli soldiers and killed three more during a cross-border raid on the Lebanon-Israel border. A government report severely criticised his handling of the war, and his public approval ratings have only occasionally climbed above 20 percent since.

When U.S. businessman Morris Talansky told a Jerusalem court in May that he had given Olmert some 150,000 dollars in cash to cover, among other things, personal expenses, it was clear Olmert would not see his term through to November 2010, when the next election is scheduled.

His situation became even more tenuous when fresh allegations emerged a few weeks ago, with he accused this time of submitting duplicate claims for travel expenses to charities that had sponsored his trips abroad. Olmert has denied all of the allegations, which relate to the period before he became prime minister, and had initially said he would only resign if indicted.

In his address, broadcast live on all three main TV channels, he said he had become the target of a ”slander campaign”, which he intimated was being conducted by the police and the state prosecution. He said he had found himself ”subject to a wave of investigations, examinations and criticism immediately after being elected.”

Zevulun Orlev, leader of the opposition, right-wing National Religious Party, is unforgiving. ”Olmert has hardly been a beacon of honesty,” he told IPS. ”If he said ‘good morning’ to me, I wouldn’t believe it was morning until I went to the window to check.”

After the court appearance by Talansky, Labour Party leader Ehud Barak told the prime minister that if he did not allow Kadima to hold a leadership primary, he would precipitate an early election. Left with little choice, Olmert agreed and earlier this week Kadima set Sep. 17 as the date for the leadership vote.

Once the ruling party has a new leader, the President will then ask the member of parliament with the greatest chance of forming a government — most likely Kadima’s new leader — to do so. They then have a maximum of six weeks to try and construct a new coalition. If they fail, a general election will be held within 90 days.

It is not altogether unfeasible that Olmert could still occupy the prime minister’s office for another six months, since he will remain at the head of a transitional government from the moment he resigns until a new government is formed.

In his address Wednesday, Olmert said he believed there was ”a broad public foundation” for a new Kadima-led government and that he expected one to be formed ”within a short time.”

But with the key parties in any future coalition holding divergent views on the peace process and also having conflicting budgetary demands, there is no guarantee that the new leader of Kadima will succeed. The ultra-religious Shas party wants the government to reinstate hundreds of millions of shekels in child allowances that were cancelled by the previous government under Ariel Sharon, but the Labour Party strongly opposes such a move. And, whereas Labour enthusiastically supports peace moves, Shas opposes major concessions to the Palestinians and the Syrians.

”There is certainly a chance of putting together a coalition,” Kadima lawmaker Otniel Schneller, who has been a strong supporter of Olmert, told IPS. ”The big question is whether we will be able to get the budget passed. With the world economy struggling, we will have to keep the budget tight and so it will depend on whether a party like Shas understands this. The word ‘child allowances’ is just a word. You can always call it something else.”

Orlev is predictably more skeptical. ”The chance of a new government being formed is very low,” he told IPS. ”The smell of elections is in the air and so when it comes to the coalition negotiations no party will want to be seen to be compromising. That’s because they know elections could be just around the corner and they might not be judged so kindly by their voters if they do.”

With Olmert having set a date for his resignation, attention will now switch to the leadership battle within Kadima, which is already shaping up as a two-horse race. The current front-runner is foreign minister Tzipi Livni, but transport minister Shaul Mofaz is mounting a serious challenge as well.

Livni is popular among the general public, who view her as measured, responsible and as a model of clean, corruption-free politics. Mofaz will try to play up his military past — he is a former army chief and a former defence minister.

While Livni will tell Kadima members that she has the best chance of winning a general election — polls show her garnering more seats than a Mofaz-led Kadima in an election — Mofaz will tell them that he has a better chance of cobbling together a new governing coalition, in part because of his more hawkish views on the peace process.

With former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who heads the centre-right opposition Likud party, holding a clear lead in opinion surveys, Kadima members are not keen to rush to the polls, and Mofaz’s message could prove persuasive.

”Livni will put the peace process at the forefront,” says Schneller. ”She will say that we have to move forward on this front and that we have to go to the people (in an election) and win their support.”

Mofaz, he says, will focus on security concerns, especially the threats posed by Hamas and Hezbollah. ”He will say he can form a broad government and that with Israel facing serious security issues, now is not the time for elections.”

Olmert said Wednesday evening that he would continue to push forward in negotiations with the Palestinians and with indirect talks Israel has been conducting with Syria. ”As long as I remain at my post I will not stop trying to continue to bring the negotiations between us and our neighbours to a successful conclusion,” he said.

Orlev is incensed. ”Olmert has no right to continue conducting negotiations,” he said. ”He has lost the support of parliament and of the people. He no longer has legitimacy.”

Orlev need not be overly concerned. With Olmert having announced his resignation, any significant progress in talks with the Palestinians or the Syrians is now highly unlikely.


NORWAY: Oil Fund Finds Ethical Success

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, July 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Tarjei Kidd Olsen

OSLO, Jul 31 (IPS) – Norway’s ‘oil fund’ has risen to become the second largest fund in the world despite housing an ethical investments council which has kicked out major companies such as Wal-Mart, Lockheed Martin and Boeing.

The ‘oil fund’, properly called the Government Pension Fund – Global, and worth an estimated 390 billion dollars, has become the world’s second largest sovereign wealth fund, now only trailing the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority after overtaking the Dutch fund for public employees.

The fund invests some of the huge profits from Norway’s oil and gas sector in companies worldwide to raise money in anticipation of increased pension costs and a future without oil exports.

Business is booming, perhaps partly explaining why the ethics councils of 20 non-Norwegian funds are said to be copying its ethical guidelines and recommendations, and in the process broadening its impact considerably, according to Norway’s finance ministry.

The unprecedented level of investment transparency practised by the oil fund may be another contributor to its success. The fund has been clear that its goals relate to financial sustainability as opposed to any secretive political agendas, and it scored no less than 100 percent for governance, accountability and transparency in a 2007 study by the U.S.-based Peterson Institute for International Economics (Abu Dhabi Investment Authority scored 2 percent).

The fund invests earnings from Norway’s oil and gas sector in companies outside of Norway in accordance with guidelines from the finance ministry. Some of these guidelines relate to ethics and are meant to ensure that the fund does not invest in companies that contribute to any of a series of specified abuses that finance minister Kristin Halvorsen has summarised as ”serious, systematic or gross violations of ethical norms.”

A total of 27 companies have been kicked out of the fund following the creation of the ethics council in 2004. Most of these were excluded for producing weapons that ”may violate fundamental humanitarian principles.” Among these were Lockheed Martin or EADS for producing components for cluster bombs, and Boeing for producing central components for nuclear weapons.

Wal-Mart got the boot for workers right abuses (including child labour, gender discrimination, and the blocking of unionisation attempts). The oil fund has also pulled out of companies that have engaged in abuses such as the forced displacement of tribal peoples or serious environmental destruction.

However, most of the time the fund engages in less dramatic action which, its proponents argue, may be more effective in the long run. This approach focuses on using the oil fund’s position as an investor to influence the ethical practices of offending companies, and is managed by Norway’s central bank instead of the finance ministry.

The central bank’s Anne Kvam, head of the corporate governance department, has an in-house team of 11 people working to influence the 7,000 stock market-listed companies in the oil fund’s investment portfolio. The team works with ‘traditional’ corporate governance issues, for instance shareholder voting rights, as well as social concerns — currently child labour and the environment.

”With 7,000 companies and a fairly broad set of international principles to take account of, there are quite a lot of different themes and areas that could be focused upon. Obviously we don’t have the resources or possibility to do that, so instead we focus on a few specific areas for each strategic period which we can delve into more deeply,” Kvam told IPS.

”We take a sector-wise approach to investigating abuses by the companies we invest in, and for child labour in Brazil that means the mining sector, in India it means the cotton industry, and so on.”

The effort involves voting at shareholder meetings, discussions and ongoing processes of engagement with the companies, networking with other investors, and government dialogue.

Even though the oil fund usually owns no more than one percent of stocks and bonds in any given company, Kvam feels that her team is being listened to.

”Social issues such as child labour are structural problems connected to poverty and many other themes that we don’t expect to solve in six months — it’s a long-term effort, and my team only began working with this in 2006. But we do feel that the companies are interested in talking to us, in that we are given the opportunity to engage in dialogue with receptive CEOs and boards,” she said.

Kvam’s team has already helped convince some companies to sign up to the United Nations Global Compact, a corporate responsibility initiative. ”It naturally helps that we are one of the largest funds in the world. They listen to us, and now it remains to be seen how our work will affect policy.”

The finance ministry’s exclusion of companies and the central bank’s investor approach are meant to complement each other. While the exclusion of companies garners attention and roots out the worst of the worst, the less dramatic central bank approach serves to influence a larger number of companies.

”The process that takes place with the finance ministry’s council of ethics is very thorough and very transparent. It makes people take notice; something which stock market-listed companies hardly enjoy. But this approach has a limited capacity — they have excluded 27 companies out of the total 7,000 — so it can never become the main instrument as it simply can’t investigate everyone,” Kvam pointed out.

Finance minister Kristin Halvorsen agrees that it is usually better to influence companies from the inside, rather than by kicking them out.

”If the finance ministry excludes a company it will garner attention, but we lose the ability to influence the company’s behaviour, and those that buy the stocks we sell may have a completely different agenda than we do when it comes to ethics,” she said in a press statement.

”Because of this it is important that the exclusion of companies should only be on the table in exceptional circumstances, although in certain cases the ministry has to forcefully demonstrate that we cannot contribute to the financing of gravely unethical activities.”