OBAMA:DANGERS OF INDO-PAK RE-HYPHENATION

Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

The Presidential campaign is over. The transition drill has begun. Senator Barrack Obama will take over as the President only on January 20 next, but his immense work as the President-elect would have already begun from the moment he left the dais after making the victory speech to his followers and supporters.

2.The Americans call it the period of transition. It is during this period that the President-elect chooses his team of Cabinet members and senior officials, decides on his policy priorities and works out his goals during the first 100 days of his administration and thereafter. Those, who would constitute the hard core of his transition team, would start co-ordinating with the outgoing Bush administration.

3. Senior officials of the US Secret Service, which protects the President and the Vice-President, would have already called on him and set in place the arrangements for his security. Other officials of the Bush Administration would be calling on him and his close advisers to keep them briefed on the actions of the outgoing administration.
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THAILAND: Anti-Coup Movement Strikes Back

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

By Marwaan Macan-Markar

Supporters at an anti-coup rally cheer as Thaksin ‘speaks’ from exile.

Credit:Marwaan Macan-Markar/IPS

BANGKOK, Nov 4 (IPS) – For the past five months Ataporn Kampa has endured insults hurled at him by an anti-government protest movement, that is supported by affluent, urban-based Thais who openly profess right-wing, conservative views and want the military to take over the country.

To this protest movement, the likes of Ataporn, who come from the impoverished agricultural belt of north-east Thailand, are a bane to the country’s politics. They have been sneered at as uneducated, stupid and lacking in intelligence required of voters in a democracy.

Such brazen contempt for the country’s rural poor by this right-wing movement, which calls itself the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), has also prompted calls for the rolling back of the voters’ power in the country. The PAD wants the military to turf out the ruling six-party coalition that was elected at last December’s poll.
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VIETNAM: Prosperity Tough on Trash Collectors

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Monday, November 03, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Helen Clark

HANOI, Nov 3 (IPS) – As the expendable income of households in Hanoi increases, so does the amount of refuse generated. This is taking a toll on the city’s predominantly female force of garbage collectors, as well as the environment.

A green truck idles on a street beside one of Hanoi’s largest beer halls, Hoa Vien, popular with the capital’s movers and shakers. In the twilight, women in khaki overalls and blue helmets push heavy trolleys, piled high with refuse, into a line behind it.

”I don’t get days off,” Tram, 33, tells IPS. ”Any celebration, I work more because there’s more garbage to collect. It’s always busy; I don’t even get Tet off.” Tet is Lunar New Year and the most important holiday in the Vietnamese calendar.

Tram has been collecting the city’s garbage for 14 years, and says things have become harder in recent years. There is far more to pick up, whilst wages have remained the same — between 1.5 million VND — 1.9 million VND (90 – 115 US dollars) each month.
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CHINA: Dam Casts Long Shadow Over Idyllic Valley

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Monday, November 03, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Antoaneta Bezlova

LIJIANG, Nov 3 (IPS) – The town at Tiger Leaping Gorge is a ghost town. Clusters of new apartments in mock-Tibetan style with whitewashed walls and ornate flat roofs sit all empty, with gaping windows. The newly widened streets are free of traffic and the surrounding beauty of nature makes for an eerie contrast to the emptiness of the place.

Nestled in the folds of the snow-peaked mountains of Shangri-la and perched over the rushing waters of Jinsha River, the place is so picturesque that it is no surprise that it was picked as the perfect retirement spot for local government officials.

They too wanted to retreat from the world in the paradise on Earth that English writer James Hilton made famous in his 1933 fantasy novel ”Lost Horizon”.

”They (the officials) all bought properties here,” says Xiao Luo, a local tour guide from the Naxi minority. ”These buildings are all new and were all built for retired cadres. But no one dares yet to come and live here. If the dam gets built this whole area will be flooded.”
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AFGHANISTAN: ‘If Talks With Taliban Bring Peace, I’ll Support It’

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Monday, November 03, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Analysis by Anand Gopal

KABUL, Nov 3 (IPS) – Western officials are increasingly turning to new strategies in an effort to stabilise Afghanistan and defeat the insurgency here, according to U.S. and Afghan officials. The various initiatives — from negotiating with the Taliban to arming tribal militias — have differing degrees of support from Afghans.

Violence has reached record levels this year and Afghanistan is now considered a deadlier battlefield than Iraq. Insurgents are able to operate openly in areas close to the capital and the central government’s popularity is at the lowest point in its history. The situation is prompting a number of strategy reviews in Washington as the U.S. prepares for possible strategic shifts after the next president takes office.

Some officials are quietly considering a plan to arm tribal groups, in a move reminiscent to the American strategy in Iraq that is credited with decreasing violence there. ”We are seriously looking into using tribes and local communities to provide security,” says an American intelligence officer with the international forces.
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SRI LANKA: Media Groups to Challenge New Restrictions

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Monday, November 03, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Nov 3 (IPS) – Media groups in Sri Lanka, already restricted from covering the war against Tamil rebels in the north, are bracing to challenge new regulations that seek to control television broadcasting and new media.

The new rules, announced on Oct. 27, control content not only for broadcast but also MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service), a form of news dissemination that is rapidly gaining in popularity. Newspapers on the weekend also reported government plans to bring in similar rules for radio broadcasting.

”Censorship, there is no doubt about it,” warned Sunanda Deshapriya, spokesman for Sri Lanka’s Free Media Movement (FMM), the most vibrant of several associations representing journalists, publishers and private broadcasters.

Deshapriya told IPS that media groups and civil society organisations plan to challenge the regulations in the Supreme Court before Nov. 10, the deadline for objections before the regulations take effect.

”These are draconian and repressive rules never before enforced in Sri Lanka,” another journalist, who declined to be named, said. ”For any excuse they (authorities) can cancel the licence, and if a news item is seen to be unfavourable to the government.”

The new regulations provide the media minister, as the regulator, with powers to cancel licenses if content is ‘’detrimental to the interests of a national security; incites a break-down of public order; incites ethnic, religious or cultural hatred; is morally offensive or indecent; is detrimental to the rights and privileges of children”, among other restrictions.

In a statement, the FMM said the ‘Private Television Broadcasting Station Regulations’, seek to control new technology and bar foreigners from operating stations. Members of political parties may not seek licenses and the validity of all licenses are limited to one year.

The FMM said the new rules could be used for reasons other than reasonable regulation. ”In our view, these new regulations are misconceived in the way they allow governmental intrusion into freedom of expression, and media independence,” a representative said.

Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremasinghe alleged at a press briefing on Friday that the government was trying to tighten conditions for the issuance of broadcasting licenses, as it cannot control live, political talk shows and reportage of spot news. ”All these attempts are aimed at establishing control of the (Mahinda) Rajapaksa family company. In fact, the country is today under the control of a family which severely restricts all democratic rights. This gazette extraordinary has been issued as part of that attempt.”

Political analysts say President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his powerful brothers — Chamal (minister for ports and aviation), Basil (senior advisor to the President and parliamentarian) and Gotabaya (defence secretary) together with a handful of close associates, including army commander Gen. Sarath Fonseka, form a cabal that runs the country.

The government has defended the new regulations. Media minister, Anura Priyadharshana Yapa, said they were needed to bring about uniformity in the fast-growing electronic media broadcasting field. ”The same rules must apply to all television stations and these regulations were introduced for this purpose,” he said.

Under the earlier regulations, TV and radio stations were provided ‘temporary’ licenses’ with no operating period specified. Over the past few years, efforts have been underway to standardise regulations for both private and government TV and radio broadcasting.

The new regulations also seek to severely restrict news dissemination through the Internet — particularly citizen blogs, popular on news websites.

The government already controls information on the civil war in which the Sri Lankan army is fighting separatist Tamil rebels in the north of the island. In recent weeks, only state television has been reporting from the front.

Government forces are within striking distance of the key northern town of Kilinochchi, the last bastion of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), but have got bogged down by stiff resistance and heavy monsoon rains.

Since Rajapaksa was elected President in November 2005, at least 15 journalists have been killed, some allegedly by vigilante groups. Several others have been picked up by state agencies. The Tigers have also been accused of harassment and attempts to control or intimidate journalists in the areas they control.

In the latest World Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders, Sri Lanka has fallen to the lowest press freedom rating of any democratic country worldwide.

Another opposition politician, Mangala Samaraweera, a former powerful politician in Rajapaksa’s political party before the latter became president, said Rajapaka was acting ”like Adolf Hitler in a dictatorial rage.’ At least one TV channel has been asked to submit its news content to the government as a precursor to the enforcement of the regulations, IPS learns.

FMM’s Deshapriya says that the government should have appointed an independent authority as the regulator instead of the minister.

An international media team, which carried out a fact-finding mission (Oct.25 û 29) to Sri Lanka, has said it deplored the new regulations and any effort to impose prior restraint or direct censorship on the media.

The team, comprising representatives of the International Federation of Journalists, International Media Support, International News Safety Institute, International Press Institute and Reporters Without Borders, said it found a deterioration in the press freedom situation since its last visit in June 2007.

”In recent months journalists and media institutions seeking to report independently on the ongoing conflict have been attacked and intimidated in a seeming effort to limit public knowledge about the conduct of the war and to reveal their sources. This is a violation of the public right to know and the accepted norm that media sources should be protected,” it said.

SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Financial Meltdown Prompts Return to Agriculture

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Thursday, October 30, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Oct 30 (IPS) – As South-east Asia feels the heal of the global financial meltdown leaders are turning to the informal sector, particularly agriculture, as a potential provider of employment.

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi echoed such a sentiment this week, resurrecting a view that had emerged after a financial crisis swept through this region in 1997. The Malaysian agriculture sector will help the country to ‘’cushion the impact of the economic downturn,” he said during an encounter with farmers, according to local press reports.

The agriculture sector accounts for about 60 percent of South-east Asia’s informal sector, which is estimated to have 161 million workers, states a new study on labour trends released by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

‘’Agriculture still accounts for 44.5 percent of (the region’s) total employment, albeit with considerable variations across countries, ranging from less than one percent in Singapore to over 80 percent in Laos,” the ILO study said.

The past decade has also seen South-east Asian cities, which have expanded due to rapid urbanisation and migration from rural areas, taking on a greater role as a venue for the informal labour pool, adds the ILO. Food vendors along the streets are typical of this trend. A majority of them are women, giving ‘’vulnerable” work a ‘’feminine face”.

The number of workers in the informal sector are set to increase as jobs in the region’s formal economic sector, ranging from industries to services, become limited, says Gyorgy Sziraczki, senior economist at the ILO’s Asia-Pacific regional office in Bangkok. ‘’Employers will either delay hiring or freeze new recruitment and the wage growth will slow down, with pay increases lesser than in past years.”

‘’There will be 850,000 fewer jobs created in 2008 than in 2007. And by 2009, that number could go up to 1.27 million fewer jobs in the region,” he revealed in an interview. ‘’The number of unemployed in the region may rise to 18.5 million in 2009 as against the 16.5 million unemployed people in 2007.”

Such dismal estimates are a contrast to the robust economic growth the region experienced till the onset of the spike in oil and food prices early this year and soaring inflation in some countries in the 10-member regional bloc, the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN). The region’s growth of 6.4 percent in 2007, up from six percent the previous year, ‘’was the highest in over a decade,” states the ILO in its ‘Labour and Social Trends in ASEAN 2008′.

‘’The region’s strong economic performance in 2007 had a positive impact on its labour markets,” adds the 116-page report. ‘’Employment in ASEAN member countries increased from 260.6 million in 2006 to 268.5 million in 2007 — an increase of three percent, or 7.9 million additional jobs.”

The impact from the financial crash will be felt in the export sector in countries like the Philippines, which depends on the Japanese and U.S. markets.

This week, Thailand’s labour ministry revealed that 120 companies had shut down from January till October in industries dealing in food, garments and furniture.

Burma’s garment sector, which exports to Japan and the European Union, may also experience factory closures and workers being laid off, according to the military-ruled country’s garment manufacturers association.

But unlike a decade ago, governments appear more prepared to deal with layoffs and lack of work in the formal economy, says Raj Kumar, at the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), a regional U.N. body based in Bangkok. ‘’The 1997 financial crisis caught governments by surprise and there was little preparation to help people affected by the economies that went into negative growth.”

‘’They have learnt some of the lessons since then and are already talking about it,” he told IPS. ‘’The current talk about the role the agriculture sector will have to play to absorb people from the formal economy was never discussed before the ’97 crash.”

Yet such expectations for the informal sector — particularly agriculture — to help people from cities to return back to their homes in rural areas and serve as a safety net are not limitless. More so since the rural heartland of many South-east Asian countries have been ignored in the past 10 years, with limited amounts of investment pouring in from national budgets to improve infrastructure and agriculture outputs.

‘’There has been a serious neglect of the agriculture sector in the past decade. The investments have gone down,” says Diderik de Vleeschauwer, spokesman for the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) Asia-Pacific office. ‘’Those areas are not what they used to be in ‘97.”

The land area available for agriculture has also decreased, he told IPS. ‘’This is because of new land-use patterns, land being sold for non-agriculture purposes such as hotels and golf courses and the drastic impact of climate change.”

In fact in the Philippines, a country expected to face the brunt of the economic downturn, there is little hope for people who migrated to the cities from the provinces in search of work to go back home.

‘’The agriculture sector in the Philippines is at a very low point because the government’s investment in agriculture is not a priority,” says Jillian Roque, research and advocacy officer at Public Services Labour Independent Confederation, a Manila-based national union of government workers.

‘’The only option available for the Filipinos, who end up in the informal sector is to search for jobs abroad,” she said in a telephone interview about a country that already has 10 percent of its population as overseas migrant workers. ‘’There will be an increase in people wanting to leave the country even if there is a threat of abuse and exploitation. The crisis is creating a sense of desperation.”

LTTE AIR WING STRIKES AGAIN

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR–PAPER NO.463

Global Intel Net – Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

The air wing of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) carried out two attacks within an interval of about 90 minutes on a military target in the North and an economic target in Colombo on the night of October 28,2008. This is the seventh operation by the LTTE’s air wing since it went into action in March last year.
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HEALTH-NEPAL: Meeting MDG on HIV/AIDS – A Dream?

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, October 28, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Renu Kshetry

KATHMANDU, Oct 28 (IPS) – Shibu Giri, programme officer at the National Association of People Living with HIV/AIDS in Nepal, who tested positive in 2000, believed he was fit and fine as his CD-4 count stayed normal.

But when he began falling sick frequently and developed candida in his mouth he began to have doubts. ”I decided to go for an HIV viral load test,” Giri said referring to the relatively expensive test which calls for blood samples to be send to Thailand because Nepal does not have the facilities.

The results sent alarm bells ringing as the count was 500,000 copies per ml, which is far higher than the recommended viral load of 50,000 copies per ml or less.

”If I had relied on CD-4 (immune monitoring indicator) count alone, then my life would have shortened for sure,” said Giri, who was started on anti-retroviral therapy (ARV) therapy recently.

Giri believes that his life was saved because of his awareness of the system. Not everyone is as lucky, and some of Giri’s friends succumbed to the disease long before they could be started on ARV treatment.

While ARV came to Nepal in 2004 and CD-4 count tests in 2005, this impoverished country still does not have the capacity to carry out HIV viral load tests that measures the amount of HIV genetic material (RNA or DNA) in the blood.

There are 25 ART sites in 25 of Nepal’s 75 districts. So far only 1,920 people have availed of this facility whereas the number of people living with HIV/AIDS in Nepal is estimated at 70,000, according to National Centre for AIDS and STD Control (NCASC).

The global fund has approved 36 million US dollars of the ‘Round Seven’ fund to fight HIV/AIDS. But the huge assistance coming from abroad has not been enough.

”For the effective implementation of ARV drugs, viral load testing is very important along with introducing provider initiative counseling testing for effective result rather than voluntary counseling testing,” said Rajiv Kafle, vice chairperson of Country Coordination Mechanism for HIV/AIDs.

”Due to the low number of testing facilities, most of the HIV infected people are unaware of it. There is a need for massive testing campaigning. Even though there is treatment availability, due to lack of testing, majority of HIV infected people are dying,” said Kafle.

Insufficient coverage of targeted prevention for populations at highest risk is a particular challenge compounded by the huge gap between reported and estimated cases.

National estimates indicate that 92 per cent of cases of infections are in the 15-49 age group. Estimates for 2007 show that 42 percent of all HIV infections in Nepal are among seasonal labour migrants, 15 percent among clients of sex workers and 21 percent are wives or partners of HIV positive men.

As a medical rule also, the viral load should go down (50 copies/ ml) and CD-4 Count should go up after 3 months of taking ARV drugs. But here in Nepal, there are many patients who have been taking ARV drugs for years without knowing whether it was of any use or not.

Though there are an estimated 70,000 HIV-infected people in Nepal, only about 10,000 have revealed their status. Therefore, Nepal achieving Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by halting and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015 remains a far-fetched dream.

Dr. Dirgha Singh Bam, secretary at Nepal’s Ministry of Health and Population, told IPS: ”We are working on introducing various new strategies and technologies to achieve the MDGs on HIV/AIDS. It needs collective efforts and more preventive programme which the government is working on.” The ministry has now allocated a budget for viral load test machine procurement.

The United Nations’ Millennium Development Goal (MDG) on HIV/AIDS calls for halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 mainly by providing universal access to comprehensive prevention, treatment and care.

Jeffrey Scot Morey, fund portfolio manager of The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, who was here recently for grant negotiations, told IPS that with public and private partnerships among stakeholders, and with the support of the Nepali people, it is possible to achieve the MDGs.

”The national strategy is to increase the availability of voluntary testing and treatment,” he said. ”As effective programmes are implemented and proposed and ongoing research is continued, more precise information will be available.”

”Reducing transmission among groups driving the HIV epidemic through high risk behaviour is crucial and needs to remain a focus of the response,” he further said, adding that the number of people living with HIV/ AIDS continues to rise in Nepal as also those in need of care.

EU courts Asia, banks on China

Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Monday, October 27, 2008

© Copyright 2008 Susenjit Guha. All rights reserved.

By Susenjit Guha

European Commission President Jose Barroso, who is also a former prime minister of Portugal, urged China, India and Japan to “be on board” at the Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing over the weekend. “It’s very simple: we sink together or we swim together,” he said. Apparently exasperated at Europe’s traditional ties with the United States, he seemed eager for a new alliance. The need for a paradigm shift has come, to tackle the worst financial crisis to hit the globe in 70 years.

At the meeting of 40 leaders in Beijing, climate change and food security concerns were overshadowed by news of a continuing bloodbath of global stocks. Barosso urged countries to resist calls for economic nationalism and protectionism that would only hurt prospects for a recovery, and underlined the need to regulate the world’s markets.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted more transparent markets, stricter supervision and closer international cooperation. French President Nicolas Sarkozy wanted more radical change, seeking to rewrite the rulebook for international capitalism at next month’s meeting of world leaders in Washington. He asked for assistance from Asian governments.

The International Monetary Fund failed to provide advance warning of the impending implosion in the financial markets, and has been slow at responding to requests from affected nations.

Laissez-faire has proved to be grossly unfair, as the Wall Street meltdown is not only melting the tar on Main Street, freeways and country roads in the United States, but has clogged narrow streets and roundabouts in teeming Asia as well.

And why is the European Union worried? European capitals are in the grip of Obamania, hoping for a real change in the United States – and the way it is perceived around the world – with the presumed election of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama next month. But Obamania does not guarantee European support for more troops for NATO engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq. Displeasure in Europe over U.S. unilateralism has been ratcheted up by the conduct of reckless financial institutions.

Positioned between the United States and the neighboring landmass of Asia, Europe needs to build bridges with the continent of the 21st century, Asia. As Barosso stressed at the ASEM meeting in Beijing, “We represent three-fifths of the world’s population and produce half of global GDP. Our combined action can and should make a real difference.”

Who other than China – even though Japan and India, the new kid on the block, were present – should take the lead in finding a solution to this crisis? With nearly US$2 trillion in currency reserves – more than Canada’s GDP – China is best positioned to step in. As Kim Eun Mee, professor of international studies at Ewha Women’s University in Seoul, South Korea, stressed, “Other ASEM nations have been calling for China to take a more leading role … to mediate a consensus among ASEM nations.”

Ahead of the Washington talks on Nov.15, China is being asked to ease its restrictions on banking, to prop up the strong yuan and to build a US$350 billion reserve firewall to protect the region’s currencies. Thailand wants this, and Citigroup Vice-President William Rhodes reiterated in the Financial Times that China was indispensable in solving this crisis.

But China’s leaders are wary of assuming so much responsibility at this stage of their country’s development, stressing that their first priority is raising the living standards of their own people.

Before the ASEM began, China, Japan and South Korea, along with 10 Southeast Asian nations, pledged a US$80 billion chest to stave off currency speculators, but no date was set for the launch of this fund.

The toxic sub-prime loan disaster has not hit China directly, but for the first time in five years growth has fallen to 9 percent as inflation creeps up. Exports, pivotal to China’s economic surge, will be affected as the U.S. and European economies continue to reel.

World leaders did their best to soften China up and bring Asia on board in an effort to introduce financial reforms at the Washington summit that would tackle the root causes of the crisis.

But judging by a commentary in the official newspaper, the People’s Daily, by Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai’s Tongji University, not everyone in China was impressed. Shi stopped

short of explaining how a non-convertible yuan could help, but said the euro, British pound, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan should be the currencies used for trade between the European Union and Asia. He demanded a boycott of the U.S. dollar, lambasting the United States for protecting its own interests while other countries’ wealth drained away.

Awarding the Sakharov Prize for the defense of human rights to jailed Chinese dissident Hu Jia one day before the Beijing summit was meant to remind the Asian dragon that Europe will continue to play the rights card, even if it has to court the dragon’s wealth.

Asia does not have even an EU-style semblance of solidarity, which may mean the various Asian governments will adopt different views on tackling the crisis, rather than uniting behind a European initiative. Of course, China will have its own way of doing business, taking the best and the worst of all worlds.

Time will tell if the overtures of a humane capitalistic Europe will be able to smother China, which cannot escape this financial crisis in the long run.

About the Author:

Susenjit Guha is a writer and journalist based in Kolkata, India. He contributes a weekly commentary and analysis for UPI Asia and has written on Indian and global political issues for such online publications as Online Opinion (Australia) and Foreign Policy in Focus (USA) and M.J Akbar (India).

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Author: Dmitry Fironov