Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Monday, November 03, 2008

© Copyright 2008 Malladi Rama Rao. All rights reserved.
Sunday, November 02, 2008

By Malladi Rama Rao

What a spat it was? It had turned upside down the logic of campaign journalists on either side of the Palk Strait. No surprise, therefore, all those in Colombo who have been painting a doomsday scenario of sorts between Chennai and Delhi have egg on their face and are groping for new theories to brazen out their jingoism that made the mistake of once again pitting the Sinhalese against the Tamils. Post-Basil mission to Delhi, the egg heads must realise that neither righteous indignation which is on display in abundance nor an orchestrated media campaign, for a few brownie points, which shows no let up, is a substitute for good governance, which is the only way to end the years of trust deficit between Colombo and Tamils.

Some commentators have termed India’s Sri Lanka policy as a farce. Some others have branded as tamasha DMK patriarch Muthavel Karunanidhi’s politics of ultimatum. Both schools of thought felt that Delhi and Chennai were trying to have the cake and eat it in their own way. Expecting Karunanidhi to reduce Manmohan Singh government to a minority just five-six months ahead of a general election, these critics had gone to the town declaring that Delhi was caught between the devil and the deep sea. They have obviously failed to understand, much less care to read, the fine print on coalition dharma. And also how adroitly the old Dravidian fox was outmanoeuvring his arch rivals – Jayalalithaa Jayaram of AIADMK and trusted follower turned political foe V Gopalaswamy alias Vaiko.

Karunanidhi had split Vaiko’s MDMK a couple of months ago. Now by regaining the Tamil centre space, he has marginalised the likes of Vaiko who are the ardent campaigners of LTTE. The icing on the cakes, as DMK faithful see it, is the arrest of Vaiko on charges of sedition and anti-national activities. The arrest should have come as a surprise to the India-baiters in Colombo.

Needless to say, these worthies have not understood the dynamics of democracy and the contours of an administration that swears by the Constitution in India. If they have any doubt they should listen to the recording of Pranab-Karunanidhi joint press conference in Chennai last Sunday.

Said Karunanidhi: “This issue (ethnic issue in SL) has been going on for 40-years; we cannot expect it to be resolved in four days”. Pranab Mukherjee, on his part, put the record straight saying India stands for countering terrorism with resolve. Put differently, it means India will do nothing to reduce the momentum of the SLA operations in Kilinochchi. .

Firstly, Pranab rejected the demand voiced by a section of TN politicians for withdrawal of non-lethal military support to the SLA like supply of radars and technical and personnel backup to keep operational these anti-aircraft radars. Secondly, he reasoned that the ‘help’ is in India’s interest. “Because, given the position of the Indian and Sri Lankan coastlines, the radar that was given would cover vital installations in Indian areas as well”, the Indian minister told a questioner, certainly as much to the delight as surprise of his SL friends.

There is substance, therefore, in the contention that the latest low in India-Sri Lanka relations is not because of any misunderstanding between Delhi and Chennai but because of forked tongues in Colombo. Consider these two facts – one about fishermen and the other about humanitarian aid.

The Basil mission to New Delhi has put in place some practical arrangements to deal with bona fide Indian and Sri Lankan fishermen crossing the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL). GOSL will designate sensitive areas along the Lankan coastline. These areas will be out of bounds for Indian fishing vessels. “Further, there will be no firing on Indian vessels. Indian fishing vessels will carry a valid registration or permit and the fishermen will have on person valid identity cards issued by the government of Tamil Nadu,”, a joint statement on fishing arrangements released on Oct 26 at the end of BR talks with the Indian foreign minister, said.

The fishermen issue has been a principal concern of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and most law makers from the state cutting across party-lines. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh took up the issue personally two months back with President Rajapaksa on the sidelines of SAARC summit. These concerns have been met with more firings on the Indian fishermen. Undoubtedly, the latest agreement is the most practical way of dealing with what happens when illiterate fishermen cross the maritime boundary line. On its part the TN government is taking steps to equip fishing vessels with satellite based equipment to indicate their exact location on the high seas.

The Sri Lanka Navy has used the moral right to prevent pro-LTTE Indians from Tamil Nadu from assisting the Tigers with material that could be used in the war against Sri Lanka –batteries that can power improvised explosive devices, ball-bearings to add lethality, petrol, oil and lubricants and small arms and ammunition—to be indiscriminate and vindictive in its actions against the fisher folk. The proposed system of licenses would induce an element of inspection that would give the fishermen an opportunity to explain their presence and thus avoid being killed instantly on being sighted by the Sri Lanka Navy. So, there is room for optimism that there will be no ‘a flare up’ near Katchiativu. It will certainly lead to a cooling of political temperature in the State.

During Basil-Pranab talks, India had offered to send humanitarian aid – 800 tonnes of relief material- through the Red Cross as a gesture of goodwill. President Rajapaksa welcomed the Indian decision and also appreciated Tamilnadu’s offer to make an additional contribution to ‘this humanitarian endeavour’.

But his Essential Services Chief S. Divaratne doesn’t appear to share President’s enthusiasm. In fact, he shares the indignation expressed by a section of the Lankan leadership which sees in the Indian food aid a repeat of food air drop in 1987. “Sri Lanka is not an African state in need of food. We can even feed the poor people of India, if need be”, he told the media. His remarks are not contradicted till date. He also went on to add: The government has buffer food stocks in Kilinochchi and Mulaithivu with a surplus of rice in the Wanni. Even anti malaria drugs, medicines are constantly reaching the Wanni”.

Basic thrust of Basil-Pranab agreement and President Rajapaksa’s exclusives to select Indian dailies is that civilians would be spared in the course of Wanni war. But even before the ink on the Delhi agreement dried, three Tamillians – one of them a 50-year –old mother of three, living in the conflict zone were wounded in SLAF strafing of two civilian settlements in Kilinochchi and Paranthan. The victims belong to the ever increasing tribe of internally displaced persons from Mannar and Kilinochchi. A school with some 750 students was just 750 meters from the bombed site. This incident could be one of those hazards in a military operation but doesn’t help improve confidence levels.

At this point in SL history, who pushed whom to war is not material. What is germane is, as some SL commentators have also noted, President Mahinda Rajapaksa, while professing full commitment to political package, has allowed the Sinhala extremists to set an agenda that allows only for a military solution. Defeating the Tigers militarily may not be big deal. The war may at the best drag on for a few days or months; the army and air force have to work to a plan jointly and without indulging in their own games. But how is the government to control the large Tamil-speaking areas in the north that have been under LTTE domination for a decade or more. There is no plan in evidence.

Yes, the President promises that he himself will take charge of the political process and see it through politically. But he makes it clear that the current military operations are required to ‘free our own Tamil brothers and sisters from the cruel grip of terror and implement a just and enduring political solution based on the four ‘Ds’ — Demilitarisation, Democratisation, Development, and Devolution’. He also asserts that his first priority is Demilitarisation. “Without demilitarisation first, you won’t be able to achieve anything. No democratisation, no development, no devolution. It is useless to give them devolution when they are not ready to accept it or you can’t implement it”, the President told N Ram of The Hindu.

This assertion puts a fresh question mark on the future course of events promised by President’s emissary, Basil Rajapaksa to his interlocutors in Delhi. More over, the LTTE appears to demonstrate its ability to strike even when it has been hurt very badly. As the Stratfor experts say in their forecast, the Tigers will make a stronger attempt to carry out attacks inside Colombo ‘in an attempt to prove to their constituency that they are still viable’. From a military point, that is bad news. Also from a political point. Because it will give fresh lease to the Sinhala chauvinism and deepen the Faultlines further.

Ethnic SL Tamil diaspora has enormous financial and political clout; it is numerous in crucial Western countries. And they can provide the muscle to the LTTE for decades irrespective of the outcome of today’s military campaign. If the diaspora is to be checkmated and LTTE is to be given a knockout blow, MR, as President Mahinda Rajapaksa is addressed by his close circle, should look into the causes of anger of the Tamils with the Sinhala state with a sense of urgency and commitment. Rhetoric offers no solution. Certainly not banking on State created quislings like TMVP who have neither the reach nor vision.