RIGHTS-COLOMBIA: UN Warns of Civilian Killings by Military

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

By Constanza Vieira

BOGOTA, Nov 3 (IPS) – The extrajudicial executions that are being committed by government forces in Colombia constitute crimes against humanity, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said at the end of her six-day fact-finding tour of this South American country.

“An offence becomes a crime against humanity if it is widespread and systematic against the civilian population. We are observing and keeping a record of the number of extrajudicial killings, and it does appear systematic and widespread in my view,” Pillay said in answer to a question from IPS in her only meeting with the press in Colombia, on Saturday Nov. 1.

According to the Observatory of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law of the Colombia-Europe-United States Coordination Group (CCEEU) — a coalition formed by some 200 humanitarian organisations — from January 2007 to June 2008 “one person died every day in extrajudicial executions” committed directly by government security forces.

The same source indicates that the number of summary executions has tripled since right-wing President Álvaro Uribe took office in August 2002. And the killings are occurring in every region of the country, as evidenced by statistics from the Colombian Commission of Jurists, a prominent human rights group that forms part of the CCEEU.

Pillay spoke of “continuing levels of extrajudicial executions,” which she described as “very alarming.”

But the implicated military officers may not have to appear before the International Criminal Court (ICC) — on which the South African-born U.N. official previously sat as a judge — given that the Colombian government has started to bring actions against the culprits, she noted.

“The goal is to have the national authorities investigate these crimes and prosecute the perpetrators,” Pillay explained. “It’s only when a country is unable and unwilling that the International Criminal Court, for instance, would have the power to intervene.”

Midway through Pillay’s visit to Colombia, on Oct. 29, the Uribe administration dismissed 20 officers, including three generals, and seven non-commissioned officers, for alleged involvement in forced disappearances and summary executions of civilians.

The bodies of the victims are later dressed up and presented to the media as leftist rebels or right-wing paramilitary fighters killed in combat, with the aim of showing results in the counterinsurgency war.

That same day, the CCEEU and other human rights groups presented a total of four reports on extrajudicial executions in this country that has been torn for more than four decades by a war between leftist guerrilla groups, government forces and far-right paramilitaries.

The military officers were fired for negligence or lack of command over their troops, and the Colombian press was quick to stress that they are innocent until proven guilty.

The U.N. high commissioner, however, said that in her meetings with Defence Ministry officials she “noted that in accordance with international standards, a superior may be criminally responsible for crimes committed by subordinates, under his or her effective authority and control, and as a result of his or her failure to exercise control properly over such subordinates.”

“So this is the basis on which this government has acted,” she continued, “and I am encouraging that the process of investigation be followed consistently through the ranks,” until those who are directly responsible are found.

Pillay urged “the Ministry of Defence to continue working to ensure that central orders are enforced at an operational level.”

She said she recognises “that this is an historic development that has not been attempted before, where the government takes accountability” seriously with respect to the responsibility of the armed forces.

The dismissals — which the government promises will not be the last — are “a hopeful indication that such atrocities will not be tolerated and that the army is moving away from ‘counting bodies’ as a criteria of success in their operations,” the high commissioner declared.

She added that she “supports the commitment expressed by the highest civilian and military authorities of the country that progress in security should be achieved with full adherence to legality and respect for human rights.”

The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has a major country office in Colombia, which has been pressuring the government since 2004, demanding that it stop emphasising “body counts” as a measure of military success, as soldiers are tempted by a policy of rewards — prizes, leave incentive, promotions and bonuses — which leads them to execute civilians to inflate the number of casualties achieved in actual combat.

In the last interview he gave before stepping down in 2006, the former head of the OHCHR Colombia field office, Swedish U.N. official Michael Frühling, had warned about extrajudicial killings, saying that “the government is aware of many of these cases because we have talked about it.”

“The government has taken certain steps because it is apparently concerned, even though it has not declared it publicly,” Frühling said back then to Un Pasquín, an anti-Uribe newspaper published by Colombian caricaturist and journalist Vladdo.

The Final Report of the International Observation Mission on Extrajudicial Executions and Impunity in Colombia, made up of 13 independent experts from Britain, France, Germany, Spain and the United States, identifies certain patterns in these extrajudicial killings.

Presented at the same time as the CCEEU report, it warns that these killings “are not isolated crimes but rather a systematic practice that is premeditated.”

“There is a system of incentives for soldiers,” said German expert Stefan Ofteringer, one of the 13 members of the observation mission who personally reviewed 135 of the 955 extrajudicial execution cases documented by the CCEUU since 2002.

“There are economic rewards,” he added, “and prizes for positive results, which we have been able to verify in many cases we’ve studied.”

But there are also “intimidations and aggressions against the relatives of victims, whenever they attempted to access the case files, court proceedings or bodies,” and the human rights defenders that help these families in their inquiries have also been threatened, he said.

The mission sees the efforts made in 2007 by the OHCHR, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and Colombian human rights groups, as well as its own work, as instrumental in the Defence Ministry’s decision to refer the homicide investigations to civilian courts on Nov. 2 of last year.

But, at the same time, the cases brought before ordinary courts advance very slowly, there aren’t enough prosecutors assigned to them, and no efforts are being made to determine who is really behind the crimes, beyond the actual perpetrators.

“We asked that military aid be conditioned to (the elimination) of extrajudicial executions and, in general, to the human rights record of the security forces,” Ofteringer told IPS.

The expert said that the countries should assess whether Colombia is complying with the annual recommendations made by the high commissioner for human rights, in preparation for the Universal Periodic Review that Colombia will voluntarily submit to next Dec. 10 in Geneva. Ofteringer noted that because of the forthcoming review, “the outcome of our mission goes far beyond individual cases.”

POLITICS-US – Racism Won’t Keep Arab Americans From Polls

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Habib Battah

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (IPS) – Arab Americans are expected to vote in large numbers Tuesday, despite concerns over voter intimidation and weak outreach from the presidential candidates, representatives of major community organisations say.
The Arab American Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC) has set up a voter protection unit staffed by lawyers to help dispel rumours that may have prevented some from going to the polls in the past.

“As always, there will be voter intimidation,” predicted Abed Ayoub, one of five attorneys attached to the unit. Enthusiasm for the election is higher than it was in 2004, he contended, pointing to a recent ADC-sponsored event in Michigan that saw at least 500 Arab Americans register in just two days.

At the same time, the ADC has received hundreds of calls over recent months from Arab Americans who mistakenly believed they may have been ineligible to vote.

“One rumour was that if you are in foreclosure, you can’t vote,” Ayoub said. Another is the misconception that those who couldn’t read or write in English — often a problem for elderly Arab Americans — would not be allowed to use translators.

But the greatest fear is of an incident like the one at the 1999 municipal election in Hamtramck, Michigan, where dozens of dark-skinned Arab Americans were asked to take a citizenship oath before voting. The move caused many to avoid the polls for fear of embarrassment.

Even in more recent elections, a number of complaints were made to ADC, though never made public, the lawyer said. “This year we want to attack the problem before it happens,” Ayoub said.

Votes of the estimated 3.5 million Arab Americans could be pivotal, especially in swing states. And though a September poll by the Arab American Institute showed that Sen. Barack Obama was far more popular — with a 54 percent to 33 percent lead over Sen. John McCain — it also found that 20 percent of Arab Americans are not enrolled in any political party. And Arab organisations say both presidential campaigns have largely failed to recognise Arab Americans as an important voting bloc.

“Neither party has done a lot of outreach to the community,” said Lelia Al-Qatami, ADC’s communications and cultural affairs director. “Ethnic outreach is very common, but we haven’t seen any with regards to the Arab community.”

The Obama campaign briefly had a liaison to the Arab American community, she acknowledged. But the liaison, Mazen Asbahi, resigned 10 days after his appointment in early August, after the Wall Street Journal ran a story alleging that he may have had ties to a fundamentalist imam. The Arab American Institute called the Journal’s claim “vague and specious.” But the incident was just one of many that upset Arab Americans.

Many Arab Americans also felt let down by the Obama campaign this summer when two Muslim women wearing headscarves were barred from appearing seated behind the senator in a television shot at Detroit rally. And there’s been disappointment over McCain’s recent response to supporters who called Obama “an Arab”. By defending Obama as “a decent family man”, McCain drew fire from Arab American Institute director James Zogby, who issued a statement noting that Arab Americans were “also decent men and women”.

“We would have liked to have better contact from both sides [of the presidential race],” said Christina Zola, AAI communications director. “The racism on behalf of staff or supporters should have been dealt with better.”

A feeling of alienation from the two campaigns was also voiced by the Arab American Political Action Committee, which decided not to endorse either presidential candidate. And neither campaign requested an endorsement, the AAPAC said.

“Those candidates who are not willing to make the effort to request our support and pursue it respectfully are not worthy of our vote, regardless of who they are,” the AAPAC said in its Oct. 11 statement.

Both Obama and McCain have also been criticised by Ralph Nader, an Arab American of Lebanese descent and the Green Party presidential candidate. Nader challenged both McCain and Obama to visit a Muslim place of worship before Election Day, “like they [visited] churches and synagogues,” according to a statement on Nader’s campaign website.

Still, hundreds of Arab Americans are campaigning for Obama or McCain, the ADC said, while the AAI has recruited several hundred volunteers to help register Arab voters, as part of the Yalla Vote Campaign. (Yalla means “come on/let’s go” in Arabic.)

“We need to be involved in this election,” said Mohammad Al Filali, outreach director for the Islamic Center of Passaic County, New Jersey, home to one of the greatest concentrations of Arab Americans. “We cannot allow our voices to be muzzled.”

At least 100 Arab Americans registered to vote in the space of a few hours during an event to celebrate the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in early October, Al Filali said. He said the community was energised by the election, despite the perception that the word Arab has “all of a sudden become a curse” in campaign rhetoric.

Samir Issa, a software engineer who took part in the event, said he was still supporting Obama, the abrupt departure of the candidate’s Arab American liaison notwithstanding. “I lost some trust in him [Obama], but not all, because the other choice is even worse,” said Issa, 36. “He’s just trying to win, whatever the cost.”

Community involvement is another problem. The campaigns “pay closer attention to people with money,” Al Filali said. “We are new to the game of politics. We have to make ourselves known.”

DISARMAMENT: ”The Carnage Must Stop”

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Thursday, October 30, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Haider Rizvi

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 30 (IPS) – An international coalition of human rights and humanitarian aid organisations is calling for the world community to create a treaty that would prohibit the illicit business in guns and other small weapons around the world.

”This is the chance for the world’s nations [to] say that the carnage from the irresponsible use of weapons must stop,” said Anna Macdonald of the London-based Oxfam International ahead of the U.N. vote on the proposed arms trade treaty set for Friday.

According to Oxfam, the arms trade fuels conflict, poverty and grave human rights abuses. On average, more than 1,000 people are killed by firearms every day. There are tens of thousands who are raped and tortured by those in possession of illicit weapons.

In the past two weeks, in addition to some Noble laureates, including South Africa’s highly-respected spiritual leader Archbishop Desmond Tutu, many parliamentarians and former military leaders have also voiced their support for the treaty against the illegal transfer of guns.
[Read more...]

DEVELOPMENT: Now Sit Up and Listen – to 117 Million People

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Thursday, October 23, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Analysis by Sanjay Suri

LONDON, Oct 23 (IPS) – For every one in 50 people around the world to make a point of standing up somewhere on the planet to say the same kind of thing adds up to a lot of people. More than any mass mobilisation on any issue ever before.

And now that they have, it should follow for leaders, if only for their own sake, to sit up and listen.

The official figure for the campaign to ‘Stand Up and Take Action against Poverty and for the Millennium Development Goals’ Oct. 17-19 has been declared at 116,993,629. The call came from the Global Call for Action Against Poverty (GCAP), an alliance of about 100 social movements, non-government organisations and community and faith groups.

This was considerably more than the 43 million recorded last year.

But the actual number is almost certainly higher than this official figure, says Salil Shetty, director of the U.N. Millennium Campaign. The official total was announced while results, after due verification, were still coming in, he said, adding that the number that actually stood up would be about twice the 67 million estimated before the weekend event. Organisers say two percent of the world population physically stood up to make a point against poverty.

Actions ranged from standing up to deliver petitions to presidents or at local events where city mayors and other officials were invited to listen, to protest marches and meetings where everyone stood up to make a point. The protest gave quite vivid truth to the old cliché about local actions, carried out globally — this time about similar matters, simultaneously.

The added support for the campaign against poverty might just have been provoked by the global financial crisis, that has seen thousands of billions of dollars go into financial institutions brought down by dubious dabblers, after the leaders who sanctioned this money denied a fraction of that to feed the world’s hungry.

”If the rich countries kept their promise of 0.7 percent of their GNP for aid, that would generate more than 200 billion dollars, more than enough to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and is still much, much less than we’ve seen available for the banking bailout,” Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland and former U.N. high commissioner for human rights declared as the results came in Wednesday.

”The money is there. But it’s the political will. Leaders must listen to more than 116 million people,” she said. ”We have shattered all previous records for mass mobilisation. People really want to stand up against poverty, and say we need change.”

The highest number of people who stood up, 73 million, was recorded in Asia, with 13 million reported in Bangladesh alone. Africa recorded about 24.5 million, and less expectedly, what was declared the ‘Arab region’ recorded close to 18 million.

Europe recorded close to a million, but Latin America only about 211,000. North America seems not to have drawn a significant response at all — though the movement was led and coordinated from New York.

The initiative is not just about numbers, but a way to make protest possible. ”We’ve created an opportunity for ordinary people to have a voice and to participate and to feel that they are not just objects of change but really the drivers of change,” said Kumi Naidoo, co-chair of GCAP and honorary president of CIVICUS, a leading global NGO campaigning for rights and development.

”We’ve created a global event which is fundamentally local in nature,” he said at a press conference after the attendance count. ”My sense of why there was such an overwhelming turnout is that there is deep concern that the global economic crisis must not detract from meeting the MDGs, and exceeding them.”

The attention to the money market crisis rather than to the MDGs clearly spurred a good deal of the protest action.

For the food crisis the leaders struggled to pledge eight billion dollars, for the financial crisis they found 3,000 billion dollars, said Sylvia Borren, executive director of Oxfam Novib in the Netherlands. ”There is an ethical question here. If we had used that money at the bottom of the pyramid we would have achieved the MDGs by now.” In this protest, ”the urgency is the message.”

The participation in the protest, she said, is ”a democratic challenge for local governments, for national governments, but particularly also for the global governance we have, that says we the people do not understand that this kind of money can be spent on the Wall Street problem when children are dying every three seconds and women are dying at childbirth unnecessarily every minute.”

The message coming across, Borren said, was that money was being spent ”on financial institutions, on wars, it’s being spent on all sorts of things we don’t want; we want it spent on education, on water, on health, on food.”

But between the delivery of a message and its receipt there still lies a wide gap. World leaders are meeting soon, not to end poverty or to find ways of providing everyone affordable food, but to make sure that the rich continue to buy, and that their market continues to flourish.

BOOKS-US: A Liberal’s Travels in ”Flyover Country”

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Thursday, October 23, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Aaron Glantz*

SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 23 (IPS) – ”What are they thinking?” is a question my mother screams at the television every election season. A union nurse in overwhelmingly liberal, Democratic San Francisco, she cannot believe that the presidential election is even close.

”What is wrong with these people?” she asks, amazed that about half the country will vote Republican this year.

Who are these people who will vote Republican even after the Grand Old Party started a war based on lies, ruined the economy, fouled the environment while enriching the oil companies, and created a situation where tens of millions of citizens lack even basic health insurance?

”Who are these people?” indeed. Inside the comfortable political bubble of San Francisco, it is possible to go through daily life without meeting a real live Republican. Like other big U.S. cities on the East and West Coast, many San Franciscans feel under siege — their future held hostage by a strange species of conservatives they in many cases have never met.
[Read more...]

POLITICS-US: Foreclosure Victims May Lose Votes as Well

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Monday, October 13, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Bankole Thompson

DETROIT, Michigan, Oct 13 (IPS) – An alleged purge of registered voters, many of whom lost their homes to bank foreclosure, in the state of Michigan has prompted a lawsuit and calls in Congress for a Justice Department investigation.

At the centre of this possible election debacle in Michigan, where Democrat Sen. Barack Obama is leading his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain, is Republican Secretary of State Terry Lynn Land, who has been criticised in the past by a federal judge for restricting access to ”provisional ballots” by voters uncertain about their voting precincts.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the Advancement Project filed a suit in U.S. District Court in Detroit last month against Land, her director of elections Christopher Thomas, and Ypsilanti City Clerk Frances McMullen for using two programmes to remove voters from the rolls without proper federal procedure.

The first programme used by the state, according to the lawsuit, is the immediate cancellation of the drivers’ licenses of Michiganders who have obtained licenses in other states without the appropriate confirmation of registration notices.

Under the second removal programme, election clerks automatically eliminate names of voters from the files who may have moved from their registered addresses, instead of sending them a warning notice by forwarded mail.

”The National Voter Registration Act of 1993 states that, if a registrar receives information suggesting a voter has moved from their registration address, they should send them a confirmation of registration notice by forwarded mail, including a postage-prepaid return card, and ask them to confirm the address,” said Bradley Heard, the Advancement Project’s lead attorney, in the lawsuit.

”The registrar also can flag the voter’s record for confirmation if the voter appears to vote. If the voter does not either respond to that notice or appear to vote within two federal general elections from the date of the notice [the ones that occur in November of even-numbered years], the voter can be removed from the rolls.”

These removal programmes could have a devastating impact in minority and low-income areas hardest hit by the mortgage crisis like Wayne County, home to large African American and Hispanic communities — key voting blocs for Democrats.

The federal lawsuit is before Judge Stephen Murphy, the immediate past U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan. Murphy said he will review arguments from both sides before ruling whether to stop the two programmes.

IPS found that from January to September of this year, 17,691 homes have been foreclosed in Wayne County, the state’s largest county which led the nation in 2007 in foreclosures for large metropolitan areas.

Recently, Macomb County, a swing county home to many conservative-leaning so-called Reagan Democrats, was in the news for the reported statements of its Republican Party chairman James Carabelli that the party is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes to prevent people from voting in the November presidential election.

”We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” Carabelli reportedly told the Michigan Messenger in a phone interview. He would later deny the comments.

In 2004, John Pappageorge, a Republican state senator from Oakland County, a Republican stronghold — where polls now show Obama beating McCain among independents (48 percent to 25 percent) and women (55 percent to 37percent) — called for suppression of the Detroit vote to win the election.

”We are deeply troubled by recent media reports that the chairman of the Michigan Republican Party in Macomb County is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes as a basis to challenge voters and block them from participating in the election,” House Judiciary Committee chairman John Conyers wrote to U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey.

”We are writing to request that the Department of Justice launch a full scale investigation into the matter. Given the number of voting rights complaints filed after the 2004 election it is critical that the Department take proactive steps now to prevent voting rights violations in November,” Conyers wrote.

The letter added, ”The plan should be investigated as a possible violation of the Voting Rights Act.”

The Justice Department will meet with Conyers this week to address concerns about voters being challenged on their foreclosure status.

The Centre for Responsible Lending said Michigan, California, Washington D.C., New Jersey, and Nevada have high mortgage defaults. The report estimated that 10 percent of African American borrowers and 8 percent of Hispanic borrowers will be affected by foreclosures compared to 4 percent of white borrowers.

It is not clear how many voters have been purged.

But Thomas, the state election director, said about 70,000 people are removed on an annual basis because of the change in their driver’s license, and that about 1,400 people have been removed since the start of this year because of their returned ID card.

”We think the actual numbers will be higher, but that will be the subject of the discovery in the case,” Heard said.

The New York Times reported that based on its own findings Michigan removed 33,000 people from the voter roll.

Thomas denied the report and said overall only 11,000 were removed because of death or authorised change notifications.

The Times ranked Michigan among five other swing states — Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Nevada and North Carolina — that unintentionally purged voters.

Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey, who has registered 28,000 new voters, told IPS that 1,567 records have been purged from the Detroit voter file because they are considered ”inactive”, meaning the person is deceased or notified election officials they’ve moved out of state.

To date, Winfrey said Detroit has 634,444 registered voters for Nov. 4. and only 90,000 of that figure voted in the primary election.

”We need to make sure every vote counts and that people are registered to vote,” said Mildred Madison of the League of Women Voters in Detroit.

SEVEN YEARS OF OP ENDURING FREEDOM: NO LIGHT YET

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR— PAPER NO.455

Global Geopolitics Viewpoints
Sunday, October 12, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

A bleeding stalemate on the ground in Afghanistan, a bleeding Pakistan tottering towards a possible collapse of the State and a total policy confusion in the corridors of power in Washington DC and other NATO capitals.

2. That has been the outcome of seven years of Operation Enduring Freedom, which was launched by the US on October 7,2001, in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda in the US.

3.In Afghanistan, the US and the other NATO forces and the Afghan National Army (ANA) control Kabul, the Capital, and other major towns and the Neo Taliban, resurrected from the pre-10/7 Taliban , controls the rural areas. Neither is in a position to dislodge the other from the areas controlled by it, but each is able to inflict bloody casualties on the other— the US and other NATO forces through the use of heavy artillery and air strikes and the Taliban through weapons of Pakistani origin and through the inexhaustible flow of suicide terrorists.

4.In Pakistan, a Pakistan-version of the Taliban called the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has arisen post-2002 and has been operating in tandem with the remnants of Al Qaeda, including Osama bin Laden and his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri, who are now reported to be based in the North Waziristan area of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It is a coalition of jihadis, which has been operating in the FATA and in the Swat Valley of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP)—- Afghan Pashtuns, Pakistani Pashtuns and Punjabis, Uzbeks of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), Chechens of the 1980s vintage who had deserted from the Soviet Army, Uighurs of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement in the Xinjiang province of China and Muslims of different ethnicities from the Muslim immigrant diaspora in the West—-jihadis of Pakistani origin from the UK, Spain and Denmark, Turks and Uighurs from Germany and some others.

5. The post-2002 Pakistani version of the Taliban has proved to be even more deadly than its Afghan counterpart. The Pakistani Taliban carried out 56 attacks of suicide terrorism in the tribal and non tribal areas in 2007 and it has already carried out 40 so far this year. The number is just one-third of what the Afghan Taliban has carried out, but strategically more significant and deadly—– attacking carefully chosen military and intelligence targets in heavily-protected cities and cantonments—-even in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, where the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Army are located.

6. In the “News” of October 10, 2008, Dr Muzaffar Iqbal, a Pakistani analyst, wrote: “With an average of three suicide attacks per week in which at least thirty persons die, there will be 1,560 dead Pakistanis within a year. Add to this approximately 15 “extremists” being killed daily in the northern region, and we have a total of 7,035 dead. Further: for every hamlet, village, and hideout bombed, and with every “extremist” killed, we have an average of ten families displaced. So within a year, northern Pakistan will be a huge graveyard and there will be several thousand internally displaced persons living in makeshift camps in the rest of the country. In addition, there will be thousands of emotionally and mentally unstable persons available to anyone who can convince them that life is not worth living anymore, so come on and die for this or that cause. The net result will be an escalation of violence in all parts of the country and the spiral of violence and death reaching all corners of the country. How did we get here? ”

7. A more difficult question engaging the attention of military commanders and policy-makers of the NATO countries is—- is a mid-course correction necessary and how to carry it out? Senior military officers of the NATO have started telling their policy-makers that the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan is unwinnable. Better make a deal with the Taliban to bring the war to an honourable end where there will be neither winners nor losers. However, they are not yet saying that the war against the Taliban in Pakistan is unwinnable. They think that if the Pakistan Army steadily maintains its present offensive in the tribal belt with discreet air support from US Drones (pilotless planes), the TTP can still be defeated.

8. It is a policy nightmare. What one has been seeing in the Pashtun tribal belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghan border is three wars in one—- against the Afghan Neo Taliban, against the Pakistani Taliban and against Al Qaeda. The war against the Afghan Taliban is not vital for the security of the West and for preventing new terrorist strikes in the West. No Afghan Pashtun has ever travelled outside his country to indulge in an act of terrorism in foreign territory. The Afghan Pashtuns, who never indulged in suicide terrorism in the past, look upon their present fight against the US and other NATO forces and their wave of suicide terrorism as part of their resistance struggle against the occupation of their country by foreign forces. They are just not interested in another 9/11 in the US homeland or another Madrid or London or Bali or Mumbai.

9. The war against Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban is vital for the security of the rest of the world, including the US, other NATO countries, India, China, Russia and the Central Asian Republics. The tribals, whom the Pakistani Army used in Jammu & Kashmir in 1947-48, 1965, 1971 and 1999, were brought from the FATA. Many of the jihadis, who had indulged in acts of terrorism in different parts of the world after 2001, were trained in the training camps of Al Qaeda and its allies in the FATA. If the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda are not defeated, the world will have to live constantly under the fear of another 9/11 or another Madrid or London or Bali or Mumbai.

10. Is it possible to reach a separate peace with the Afghan Taliban, while continuing the war against Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban? The US is in the forefront of the war against the Afghan Taliban. It can take a decision, whether to continue fighting or whether to reach a peace and, if so, under what terms.The outcome of the war against Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban depends more on the sincerity and willingness of the Pakistani security forces to fight the war to the finish, with US assistance. It is the Pakistan Army, which has to be in the forefront of this war. It has been fighting sporadically and with varying spells of intensity, but the determination to win the war is not there.

11. Just as US officers have come to the conclusion that the war against the Afghan Taliban is unwinnable and hence calls for a mix of the military and political approaches, the Pakistani officers too are coming to the conclusion that the war against the TTP is unwinnable on the ground and hence a different approach is called for in order to protect their population and security forces from the wave of suicide terrorism.

12. Is it possible to make peace with the Taliban on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghan border without weakening the war against the FATA-based Al Qaeda? With whome to negotiate? On the Afghan side, there are two vintages of the Taliban—the pre 10/7 vintage, which consists essentially of the political advisers of Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir, before 10/7 and the post-2002 vintage which consists of the remnants of the pre-10/7 commanders such as Jalalludin Haqqani and his son Serjuddin and the new commanders who have come to the fore in the recent fighting. The recent interactions between the representatives of the Government of Hamid Karzai and the Taliban under the auspices of the King of Saudi Arabia in Saudi Arabia during September were essentially with the Taliban of the pre-10/7 vintage.

13. Among those who reportedly attended the dinner were Mullah Muhammad Ghaus, a former Foreign Minister under the Taliban Government, Abdel Hakim Mujahed, former unofficial Taliban representative in the United Nations, Abdul Salaam Hashimi, former director of finance of the Hizb-e-Islami of Gulbuddin Heckmatyar, Maulvi Arsala Rahmani, a former Deputy Minister, Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil, another former Foreign Minister, and Mullah Abdul Salaam Zaif, former Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan. The influence of these leaders on Mulla Omar was limited even before 10/7. Before 10/7, the Saudi Intelligence had repeatedly tried through them to persuade Mulla Omar to hand over bin Laden to Saudi Arabia in order to avoid an American military strike. They could not succeed. Some of them were either captured by the Americans or surrendered to them after the war began and were in US custody for some months before they were released. They are, therefore, viewed with suspicion by the Taliban commanders.

14. Moreover, the US and other NATO forces may want a political face-saving because they are not doing well in the fighting, but why should the Taliban Commanders want one when they think they are winning? The same is the situation on the Pakistan side of the border. The TTP thinks it is doing well against the Pakistani security forces. Why should it agree to a compromise without achieving its objective?

15.Gen . David Petraeus, who was till recently the Commander of the US forces in Iraq, is shortly taking over as the Commander of the US Central Command. In that capacity, he will be responsible for the strategy in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. In Iraq, he successfully drove a wedge between the secular Iraqi resistance fighters and the Wahabised Arab terrorists of Al Qaeda. There is a talk that he might try a similar approach in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region by driving a wedge between the Taliban on both sides of the border and the Al Qaeda remnants. He succeeded in Iraq because the former Baathists of Saddam Hussein’s Army, who constituted the resistance fighters, were secular and did not like the Wahabised Al Qaeda. But, in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, Wahabism provides the binding ties which strongly unite the Talibans with Al Qaeda. They all feel that the future of Islam is going to be decided in the fight against the US-led NATO forces. They have two common objectives— the defeat and withdrawal of the NATO forces and the proclamation of an Islamic sharia-based rule in the entire region. So long as these objectives unite them, the Talibans are unlikely to agree to separate peace with the NATO forces. Media reports of a split between the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda have not been substantiated.

16. Unless and until the US is able to hunt down and kill at least bin Laden, Zawahiri and Mulla Omar, there is unlikely to be a change in the ground situation. Instead of nursing illusions of engineering a split between Al Qaeda and the Taliban and negotiating a separate peace with the Taliban, the US should focus on eliminating the Al Qaeda leadership. That was the main objective of Op Enduring Freedom and that should continue to be its main objective. (11-10-08)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

POLITICS: U.N. Warns of Impending Development Emergency

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – Global Analyst Online – IPS
Friday, September 12, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Thalif Deen

UNITED NATIONS, Sep 12 (IPS) – The much-ballyhooed Millennium Development Goals (MDGs ) — which include the reduction of extreme poverty and hunger by 50 percent by 2015 — are being seriously undermined by food, financial and climate change crises.

”We face nothing less than a development emergency,” Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Thursday.

Halfway to the target date of 2015, ”it is clear that we are not on track to meet the goals, especially in Africa,” he said.

”And new global challenges — an economic slowdown, high food and fuel prices, and climate change — threaten to reverse the progress we have made,” he warned.

The warning comes on the eve of a meeting of world leaders on MDGs, scheduled to take place on Sep. 26 on the sidelines of the 63rd session of the General Assembly.
[Read more...]

POLITICS: Is Cold War Rhetoric Back at the U.N.?

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – Global Politics Online – IPS
Monday, September 08, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Analysis by Thalif Deen

UNITED NATIONS, Sep 8 (IPS) – When the United States and the former Soviet Union were on the verge of a military confrontation over Cuba during the height of the Cold War, the legendary U.S. Ambassador Adlai Stevenson went eyeball-to-eyeball with Soviet envoy Valerian Zorin in the Security Council chamber.

As old U.N. hands would recall, Stevenson aggressively sought a response from Zorin over allegations of Soviet nuclear missiles stationed in Cuba.

”Yes or no?” Stevenson demanded, and added the punch line: ”And don’t wait for the translation”, as he pressed for an immediate answer from the Russian-speaking envoy.

Zorin turned to Stevenson and said, through a translator: ”I am not in an American court of law, and I do not wish to answer the question put to me in the manner of a prosecuting counsel.”

Stevenson famously responded he will wait for an answer ”until hell freezes over”.

Judging by the recent deadlock in the Security Council — over Kosovo, Iran, Myanmar (Burma), Zimbabwe, Sudan and most recently Georgia — one wonders whether the days of the Cold War are back in vogue. Or perhaps its political rhetoric?

In January last year, a Western-backed and U.S.-led move to castigate the Burmese government for human rights violations suffered a rare double veto, both from China and Russia.

And last month, history repeated itself when these two big powers exercised their vetoes again — this time to stall a resolution aimed at imposing sanctions against Zimbabwe.

The U.S.-Russian political confrontation in the Security Council has been intensified in recent weeks with the Russian invasion of Georgia, and Moscow’s subsequent decision to recognise the breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

When U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad sought a response from Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin on whether or not the Russians were bent on violating the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia, Churkin said he had already provided an answer to the question.

Maybe, he added rather sarcastically, the U.S. representative had not been listening when Churkin had given his response. ”Perhaps he had not had his earpiece on,” he added.

And when U.S. Ambassador Alejandro Wolff recently blasted Russia for its perceived violations of international law and the U.N. charter during the invasion of Georgia, Churkin hit back with another dose of sarcasm.

”Did you find any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?…And are you still looking for them?” he asked.

Speeches laced with sarcasm and personal insults are rare in the Council chamber. But is the United Nations now back to the days of the Cold War?

”The United Nations is not headed for a new Cold War,” predicts Phyllis Bennis, director of the New Internationalist Project at the Washington-based Institute for Policy Studies, and author of several studies on the United Nations.

As U.S. economic, political and diplomatic power has diminished around the world, she argued, military power has become ever more dominant as a viable tool of hegemony.

”The threat of U.S. unilateral military power continues to rise not only in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also with increasing U.S. military bases across the globe, as well as possible new interventions in Iran, in Georgia, in Pakistan and perhaps elsewhere,” Bennis told IPS.

Partly as a result of that rising militarism, and partly out of longstanding habit, she pointed out, governments around the world continue to treat the United States as if it were still an unchallengeable dominion.

”And in the United Nations, that means allowing Washington to continue to call the shots,” added Bennis, author of the recently-released ‘Understanding the U.S.-Iran Crisis: A Primer.’

”A return to the Cold War era? Not sure whether we can characterise it as such?” says an Asian envoy, who keeps close track of the state-of-play in the Security Council.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said it is a fact that the Security Council has not been functioning effectively for some time now.

”In my view, the last time it operated effectively was probably during the first Gulf War when Iraq invaded Kuwait and the then Bush [Sr.] administration (1990-91) worked hard to put together an international coalition to take on Saddam Hussein,” he told IPS.

It was just after the Cold War and Washington was in less of an ”ideological mode”.

Maybe it was because they felt that they had won the Cold War and could now afford to be magnanimous without behaving in an overbearing and unilateral manner, he added. Or maybe they saw it as an opportunity to demonstrate true leadership and to work towards the preservation of a system where they remained at the top of the heap.

But, over time, especially in the last eight years, he argued, ”the Americans have become extremely ideological and unilateral in their approach — they are always right and you are either with them or you are seen to be against them. It’s all black and while with no grey issues.”

”This was evident during the run-up to the Second Gulf War — it blinded American planning and strategising, with them thinking that they would hailed as liberators in Baghdad,” he added.

Mouin Rabbani, contributing editor to the Washington-based Middle East Report, said that since 1990 the United Nations, and particularly the Security Council, has under U.S. domination (perhaps ”proprietorship” is a more accurate term) increasingly become an instrument for the marginalisation of international law.

The United States, he said, has also been undermining the consensus of the vast majority of its constituent states on a range of issues, as opposed to an institution that works to uphold international law and enforce the will of the international community.

”In this context, the prospect of a new Cold War at the global organisation is to be enthusiastically welcomed,” Rabbani told IPS.

”At the very least there will be some daylight between the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) and the U.S. National Security Council, and hopefully some dimunition of the role of the UNSC itself,” Rabbani said.

The Asian envoy said the ideological zeal of the United States and the West is also seen in the disturbing tendency by the ”West” to try to broaden the definition of what is a ”threat to international peace and security”.

While the U.N. Charter leaves some room for interpretation, he said, this definition of a ”threat” has generally been confined to wars and violence.

”Increasingly, what we are witnessing are attempts by the West to include all manner of transgressions as possible reasons that require Security Council action,” he said.

In the Zimbabwe case, he said, the argument was that democracy, elections, and human rights all fall under possible new definitions of ”threats”.

”This is the same sort of reasoning that we have seen the West try to apply to Myanmar over the political process and the humanitarian crisis,” he added.

While Russia and China are becoming more assertive, it is primarily on issues that bear directly on their own national interests, like preventing the UNSC from producing a lopsided resolution on Georgia.

The real issue remains unchanged — whether the United Nations is capable of reforming itself to become an effective international organisation.

”And here the joint interests of the U.S. and Russia are likely to converge to prevent this from happening, as in the past,” Rabbani added.

The Asian envoy said: ”I don’t see either side backing off for the time being. The West will continue to push the envelope and many amongst the Rest continuing to resist,” he added.

POLITICS: S. Ossetia and Abkhazia Seek Voice in Security Council

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Thursday, August 28, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Haider Rizvi

UNITED NATIONS, Aug 28  (IPS)  – Russia wants the U.N. Security Council to allow the leadership of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to take part in ongoing international talks over the future of their territories.

The two secessionist states are considered by Moscow as independent nations, but in the eyes of the United States and its Western allies remain an integral part of Georgia.

”This meeting can’t be fully valid without the representation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” said the Russian ambassador to the U.N., Vitaly Churkin, while addressing a Security Council meeting Thursday. The public meeting of the Council was called by its president at the request of Georgia.

In his speech, Churkin defended his country’s decision to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states and reiterated that Moscow was forced to do so as a result of Georgia’s breach of the six-point agreement to put an end to the armed conflict. The ceasefire agreement was brokered by France on Aug. 12.

Diplomats from the United States and the European Union deplored Russia for its move to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia and charged that Moscow’s act was in violation of the U.N. Charter and international law. They also reaffirmed their support for Georgia’s claim that both the regions were an integral part of its territory.

However, Russia seemed somewhat successful in having its point of view endorsed by some of the non-permanent members of the Council from the developing world. Indonesia and South Africa, for example, agreed with the Russian position on the failure of Georgia to abide by the Aug. 12 agreement.

”This agreement presented a good basis,” said South African Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo, who thinks the situation has become ”complicated” because all the parties involved in the conflict did not accept it fully. Kumalo also supported the Russian demand for the inclusion of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia leadership in the talks.

Indonesia, another major developing country in the Council, expressed its frustration over the deadlock in diplomatic talks over the Georgian conflict and said it still ”welcomes” the six-point agreement between the parties.

The six-point agreement signed by the Russians and Georgians calls for the withdrawal of the Georgian forces to their permanent bases and the Russian military to ”the line prior to the beginning of hostilities,” meaning South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In accordance with the agreement, the Russians have pulled out their troops from Georgia — but not from the separatist regions. Russia says it wants the world community to open a discussion of larger security and stability arrangements in the two regions.

But Georgia and its powerful Western allies insist that Russian forces leave all the disputed territories, a condition Moscow seems unwilling to accept.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ossetia and Abkhazia had become part of Georgia, although it was widely reported at the time that people in the two regions aspired to have their own sovereign states. The former Soviet constitution allowed the states to secede.

The Russians created their peacekeeping forces in the two regions in 1992 and 1994, following the Georgian military’s incursions in 1992 under the slogan, ”Georgia for Georgians.”

Moscow justifies its decision to recognise the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by citing the U.N. Charter, the Helsinki Final Act, and other fundamental international instruments that recognise nations’ right to self-determination.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday he had tried to preserve Georgian unity for 17 years, but was forced to change course after the Georgian government carried out a massive military crackdown in South Ossetia early this month.

The Aug. 8 army action resulted in hundreds of deaths as well as the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.

When asked for his response to the Russians’ call to include the South Ossetian and Abkhazian leadership in the U.N.-led talks, the U.S. deputy representative to the U.N., Alejandro Wolff, told IPS: ”We see no basis for inviting them and rewarding them.”

According to some unconfirmed reports, the Ossetian and Abkhazian leaders are eager to take part in the Security Council talks, but have failed to obtain visas from the U.S. embassy in Moscow.

Surprisingly, China, a giant power in the developing world that holds veto power in the Council, did not take part in the debate.

When asked to comment by a journalist, the Russian ambassador said: ”We have no complaint about our colleagues [from China].”

Churkin told the Security Council that Moscow was fully prepared to start negotiations with the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to sign a bilateral agreement on friendship and cooperation. The representatives of the two regions have already welcomed Moscow’s move to recognise their territories as independent countries.

Churkin said many members of the Council were supportive of the six-point agreement and that he felt optimistic about the outcome of the ongoing international talks. ”There’s discussion about the U.N. observers [in the regions],” he said. ”But we will have some more discussions.”

However, conversations with Western diplomats suggested there was no imminent resolution to the dispute over the Georgian situation. ”No, there is no hope of any breakthrough soon,” a French diplomat told IPS before stepping into the Security Council chamber to take part in the debate.