THE INDIAN JIHADI NET
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 465
Global News Blog – Global Geopolitics Net
Monday, November 03, 2008
Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org
B.RAMAN
The number of fatalities in the serial explosions in Assam on the forenoon of October 30,2008, has since gone up to 75, with the death of some of the injured in the hospitals. Another about 300 persons are undergoing treatment in the hospitals and some of them are stated to be in a serious condition.
2. According to the Police, there was a total of nine blasts timed to take place in four different cities or towns in the State between 11 and 11-30 AM.The most devastating in terms of casualties (35 killed), property damage and psychological effect on the people were the three in Guwahati, the Capital. In all these three cases, the improvised explosive device (IED) was kept in the boot of cars. The use of the boot of a car for keeping the explosives enabled the perpetrators to keep more explosive material than one could in a bicycle or in a tiffin box. In the Ahmedabad blasts of July,26,2008, the explosive device was kept in a car in the incident near a local hospital. Motor-vehicle- borne IEDs also cause more casualties due to the splinter effect and large fires, which have a traumatic effect on the local population. Many who rang me up after the Guwahati explosions remarked that the scene with cars burning reminded them of what they had been seeing on the TV about similar incidents in Baghdad. This kind of trauma one did not witness during the earlier serial explosions in three towns of Uttar Pradesh in November last year, in Jaipur in May,2008, in Bangalore and Ahmedabad in July, in New Delhi in September and in Agartala in October. The three cars had been kept parked with the IED near a vegetable and fruit market at Ganeshguri below a fly-over, in front of the office of the Kamrup Deputy Commissioner, and near a police station in the Fancy Bazaar. The Ganeshguri area is near the high security complex of the capital.
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US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: WAITING FOR OBL
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO 461
Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org
B.RAMAN
It is just one week before the US Presidential elections. We all know all that we want to know about the two candidates Senators John McCain of the Republican Party and Senator Barrack Obama of the Democratic Party. We also know what the American people think of them and their ideas for the future through the public opinion polls which, without an exception, predict voter approval for Obama and his ideas—-whether relating to the economy, the so-called war against terrorism or Iran’s nuclear programme.
2.But there is still a missing gap in our knowledge—what Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda think of the two candidates and their proposed policies. On the eve of the Presidential elections of 2004 (on October29,2004), Osama entered the pre-poll scene in the US with a video message to the American people, which poured scorn over American claims regarding the war. Commenting on his message, I wrote:
“As the date of the polls approached, there was feverish speculation as to whether Bush, helped by President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, would produce OBL before the American people like a magician producing a rabbit out of his hat and thereby make Kerry look silly and win a thumping victory. Instead of Bush producing OBL and embarrassing Kerry, it is OBL’s spin-masters who have produced him before the voters, making Bush, Kerry and everybody else in the US look silly and confused.” (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers12/paper1155.html)
3. Is OBL planning a similar entry into the poll scene before the Americans vote? It will be out of keeping with him if he does not. Watch out during the days to come. Will he pour scorn over McCain and Bush just as Al Qaeda web sites are already doing? What will he say about the statements of Obama about his determination to hunt for OBL, even if he has to send the US troops into Pakistani territory to catch him—provided he has precise intelligence? Will he talk of what the jihadis in Pakistan and Afghanistan describe as the newly opened third front in the war—- in the Wall Street?
4. Or will the expected message fail to materialise? If it fails to come, that will be more significant than his message if it does come. Failure to materialise would mean that there is something wrong somewhere in the Pashtun belt from where OBL is stated to be operating. The US and the Asif Ali Zardari Government in Pakistan—-while pretending to criticise in open each other’s counter-terrorism policies—- have been secretly co-operating and co-ordinating their operations even more closely than was the case under Pervez Musharraf—- the US from the air through repeated air strikes by pilotless drones in the two Waziristans and through aerial surveillance and the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps on the ground in the Bajaur Agency and the Swat Valley.
5. It is apparent that the stepped up operations both by the Americans and the Pakistanis are not unrelated to the Presidential polls. If the Americans can get a high-value target such as OBL or his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri before the polls, it will not only redound to the credit of Bush before he leaves office, but could also benefit McCain, who is desperately trying to avert a seeming rout in the elections.
6. Al Qaeda’s foreign volunteers are on the run from village to village, from mosque to mosque and from madrasa to madrasa to protect themselves from the air strikes of the US and Pakistan. The war against terrorism has seen intense air strikes in Afghan territory from the beginning. Since Zardari’s meeting with Bush in New York in September, it has been seeing an intense wave of air strikes in Pakistani territory. US planes have been flying across Pakistani air space over the tribal belt as if they are flying in US air space without worrying about the proforma criticism from Pakistani leaders and officials and repeatedly attacking suspected Al Qaeda hide-outs. They have killed many, but not the ones that matter.
7. What stands between the US and OBL or Zawahiri is just luck and a little bit of advance intelligence. Both have eluded the US so far. For air strikes, the US has to be lucky only once. OBL and Zawahiri have to be lucky every time.
8. OBL must be constantly moving to deny that one stroke of luck to the US. How serious is the ground position for him? One will get an answer either way—whether his pre-poll message materialises or does not. (28-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
RHETORIC AND BRAVADO OVER Katchatheevu
Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global News Blog
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
© Copyright 2008 Malladi Rama Rao. All rights reserved.
By Malladi Rama Rao
Rameswaram, the holy town on the shores of Bay of Bengal, saw fishermen in an angry mood on Sunday, September 28. Four youth, Murugan, Doraisamy, Ramamurthy and Lingam went out early that day to catch fish. None of them had a boat of their own. They borrowed a boat of Valivittan, who preferred to remain at home. The weather was fine, in deed, very pleasant. And they had a fairly large catch. Naturally these youngsters, who had not seen the inside of a school, were in high spirits. Murugan started humming his favourite tune from the latest Rajani flick. Suddenly, a burst of gun fire snuffed out the life out of the 32 –year-old. He collapsed with bullets hitting his back twice. As his friends brought home his body, a pall of gloom descended on their hamlet, Bagyanathapuram.
Said Doraisamy: “We were fishing in the deep sea near Katchatheevu. Suddenly Sri Lankan navy boats encircled us and opened fire. We were already on our way home. But they chased us and fired at us”.
How sure these illiterate fishermen are that the firing came from the Sri Lankan navy? Already the Sri Lankan Mission in Chennai has asserted that the island’s fledgling navy was not in the vicinity of the area where Murugan came under fire. In fact, the media friendly, Deputy High Commissioner of Sri Lanka, P M Amsa, has gone out of his way to ‘clear’ the air. As reported by The Hindu, Amsa contacted Vice Admiral Wasantha Karanagoda, Commander of Sri Lanka Navy in Colombo, who told him that an ‘oral’ inquiry was carried out and their (SL Navy) personnel were ‘not involved’.
But the victims in Bagyanathapuram are unconvinced. How can you deny what we had seen, they argue, and in an expression of solidarity, 3000 fishermen and 700 boats stayed off the sea. This is the second strike by fishermen in three months.
Records with Rameswaram police and local fishermen association show that attacks on Indian fishermen are not new. There are allegations of SL Navy harassing Indian fishermen in their ‘traditional waters’, which in local parlance means the area in and around Katchatheevu. Amsa is, however, always quick to remark that the possibility of these incidents may have been orchestrated by a third force with vested interests, such as the LTTE, in order “to tarnish the reputation of the Sri Lanka Navy and strain the long standing and warm relations between India and Sri Lanka”, cannot be rule out.
There are not many takers for the Amsa claim amongst the political parties of Tamilnadu. It is not surprising given the emotional quotient of the issue whatever be the views of Colombo based political commentators like Janaka Perera, who spew venom at the very mention of Dravidian parties and Katchatheevu. ‘Objectivity, my foot’, he and his ilk appears to believe, going by the tone and tenor of their writings.
So let me turn to a NGO. Agni Subramanian, Coordinator of the Chennai based Organisation for Protection of Indian Rights Abroad (OPIRA), has no political axe to grind even by the yardstick of Perera. He has led a delegation to Governor Surjit Singh Barnala of Tamilnadu with an SOS from five families-their bread earners are languishing in Anuradhapura jail. Arul Sahayam told the governor that youngest son Joseph Bath (16) went for fishing fun trip, with his brother Ignatius (20) on May 26 and had not returned home.
The Deccan Chronicle reported (June 17, 2008): “With tears in his eyes, Arul Sahayam said when Joseph went with his brother and 21 others to the sea for fishing on May 26, they were caught by the Sri Lankan navy between Katchatheevu and Neduntheevu. While the Lankan navy released 18 of them on June 4, the other five including Joseph and Ignatius are still with the Lankan navy”. The Lankan navy took all the fishermen, including the teenaged student, blindfolded to a place in Thalaimannar and detained on the charge of transporting ‘black powder’ for LTTE, which they denied.
Agni Subramanian met Joseph in the jail. He was told that the boys were arrested, and produced before a judge. Sri Lankan navy officers told the judge that a ‘black substance’ was recovered from below the fishing vessel. Subramanian’s information is that 43 Indians were at present lodged in Sri Lankan jails on ‘false’ drug charges.
Neither Murugan’s nor Joseph’s is an isolated case that has come to cast a shadow over India- Sri Lanka relations. Every fisherman family of Rameswaram and adjoining areas has a story of how inhumanly the Lankan Navy has been treating them, firing at their boats indiscriminately and detaining at will, besides seizing their catch. Some incidents like the two ‘arrests’ in January 2003 are still fresh in their memories.
36 fishermen were taken into custody on the charge of ‘trespassing’ in the first week. Two weeks later, catch (prawns) worth Rs. 60,000 was ‘seized’. After another two weeks (in February) a Lankan Navy vessel hit a mechanized boat owned by Rameswaram fishermen as they were fishing near the international boundary line. A few days later 16 Indian fishermen were arrested and their four trawlers seized again on the charge that they had crossed the water boundary line.
These examples only serve to illustrate the intensity of the problem, which continues to manifest at regular intervals. It also underscores why the political class of Tamilnadu are unanimous that ‘grave’ injustice had been done to their state under the 1974 Katchatheevu agreement. Demands for abrogating the treaty are also being voiced of late by mavericks like Vaiko while Left leaders like D Raja opine that India should ‘re-open’ the treaty signed by two good friends, Indira Gandhi and Sirimavo Bandaranayke.
Muthavel Karunanidhi, the DMK chief minister and his arch rival, Jayalalithaa Jayaram of AIADMK, who ruled the state before him, have been telling Delhi to do something so that the poor, illiterate fishermen are not harassed and victimized in the Gulf of Mannar. More so as the Tribune of Chandigarh points out (Editorial March 8, 2003): ‘Sri Lanka has been honouring the agreement more in its breach than in implementing it’ and as the local (Rameswaram) fishermen complain that they were not taken into confidence at the time of signing the treaty. Public opinion is something no government in a democracy can afford to ignore. Certainly as records show that at least 300 fishermen died since the agreement was initialled
I am certain that both the above observations will invite a howl of protests from my Sri Lankan friends and I am sure they will hurl at me their choicest abuses. In recent weeks and months, many Sri Lankan commentators have become ‘extra sensitive’ over Katchatheevu. They have been straining their every nerve to run down Tamilnadu leaders for the crime of claiming that India had gifted the 285.2 –acre island just 10 miles north east to Rameswaram to Sri Lanka. Many of them have thundered: “Where is the word ‘gifted’ or ‘ceded’ in the agreement”. I concede their point. Neither of these two words figure in the text of the treaty. But what is a treaty after all? Not a piece of paper to be brandished as a sword on high seas that too before people who are unlettered.
Veteran journalist Philip Fernando (presently settled in Los Angles, USA), who had the privilege of reporting on the treaty (in the work) to The Daily News, makes the point when he observes that India and Sri Lanka resolved the issue of Katchatheevu in a ‘spirit of compromise and give and take’. Well, indeed all agreements are exercises in some give and take.
That was the reason why Article 5 of the agreement clearly states: ‘Indian fishermen and pilgrims will enjoy access to visit Katchatheevu as hitherto and will not be required by Sri Lanka to obtain travel documents or visas for these purposes’. And Article 6 records unambiguously: ‘The Vessels of India and Sri Lanka will enjoy each other’s waters such rights as they have traditionally enjoyed therein’.
The issues thrown up by fishermen and Katchatheevu are primarily humanitarian in nature, as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told President Mahinda Rajapakse, when they met on the sidelines of SAARC summit in Colombo. Viewing the issue through any other prism will greatly undermine the amity between the two countries out of a fit of misplaced bravado. Rhetoric of any kind has the power to sway emotions of the mud heads which should be checked by the level headed.
Arguments like ‘the Indian fishermen were poachers and hence deserve no consideration’ reflect a mindset that is neither here nor there. Maritime boundaries are wonderful to look at on paper and in strategy sessions but these make no sense for a fisherman even if he is on a mechanized boat. The answer to the problem is to help equip the Indian fishermen with instruments that help them get the alert signal once they are near the boundary line. Tamilnadu government in close coordination with the Indian coast guard is already on the job. This work cannot be accomplished overnight. It takes time. Till such time it is completed, patience should be the by-word. .
Various suggestions have been thrown up in recent days to end the Katchatheevu impasse. These range from India retrieving the island (World Tamil Confederation) to taking the island on a lease in perpetuity solely for fishing, drying of nets and pilgrimage (Jayalalithaa Jayaram, AIADMK leader). Better and practical option would be a bilateral agreement under which Colombo agrees to give license to Indian fishermen to fish around Katchatheevu. It will be in synch with tradition and modern times.
Old timers will recall that licensed fishing is not new to India and Sri Lanka. The 1976 agreement that had demarcated the maritime boundary provided for license to Sri Lankan vessels to fish in the Wadge Bank, which is located to the South of Cape Comorin but outside the territorial waters of India under certain terms and conditions for a limited period.
The point to remember is fishermen are not criminals. They are not armed. Treating them inhumanly or naval personnel opening fire on them brings no credit to a civilized society and its government whatever be its spectacular achievements on any other front.
About the Author
Malladi Rama Rao is an analyst and writer on the Indian political scene and geo-political and security issues of South Asia. He directs a Weekly Feature Service in English, Syndicate Features, in colloboration with his wife Vaniram. He is also the India Editor of Asian Tribune.
SYNDICATE FEATURES
B-308, Puneet Apts. B-10, Vasundhara Enclave, Delhi; Ph -22617660 E-mail: syndicatefeatures@rediffmail.com
Bailing Out Pakistan from bankruptcy
Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global News Blog
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
© Copyright 2008 Malladi Rama Rao. All rights reserved.
By M Rama Rao
New Delhi (Syndicate Features): As terrorism, a creature of its own creation, starts to devour parts of it, Pakistan finds itself in an economic meltdown that has prompted President Zardari to send an SOS for a $100 billion bail-out to ‘old friend’ United States and ‘all- weather friend’ China as also the three million- strong overseas Pakistanis. Inflation is running at 25 percent; foreign exchange reserves are not even enough to meet a 15-day oil import bill; a $3 bn debt repayment default appears imminent with the Standard & Poor’s placing Pakistan’s sovereign debt just a few notches above the default level.
Islamabad may get a reprieve from both the US and its Western allies and also China extending generous handouts. Not all of this help, from at least the US and EU, which are themselves in learning the limitations of capitalism the hard way, may come in the shape of cash flow. And Pakistan may have to accept the usual bitter pill from the global lenders – IMF and World Bank. It will feel relieved if debt repayments are deferred once again and some emergency aid commitments are promised.
China, with an overflowing foreign exchange reserve of $2 trillion, is in a position to help; well, that was the expectation of President Zardari when he visited Beijing last week. He was cold shouldered. Apparently, China shares the western perception that Pakistan is given to fiscal profligacy and is living beyond its means. It only promised a soft loan of $ 1 billion and made it clear that Pakistan must listen to IMF advisories, which mean less subsidies and more taxes.
Every now and then Pakistan appears on the international stage desperately crying for alms. During his long innings, Gen Musharraf and his ex- Citi Banker Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz had proclaimed that they had achieved an ‘economic miracle’, and heralded a high growth regime to match India’s growth story. These claims stand punctured by the high prices of essential commodities and power shortages that are bringing people on to the streets to demonstrate their exasperation from Peshawar to Lahore to Karachi and Quetta.
Pakistan received massive direct and indirect financial doses after 9/11 on the pretext that having done a U-turn on its policy of supporting Taliban it needed hard cash—apart from military hardware—to combat extremists at home who breed easily in poverty and backwardness. A natural disaster, a powerful earthquake that hit both parts of Kashmir, found Pakistan extending its arms for hard cash to rehabilitate the victims. Munificence came in plenty though it is a different matter that the rehabilitation work of the government was criticised widely for its inadequacies. Importantly, the critics had decided not to make an issue out of the fact that the so-called banned extremist organisations were openly active in the quake-hit areas mixing rehabilitation work with recruitment drives.
All this begs a vital question. How come Pakistan with its claim of being ‘one of the fastest growing economies in the world’ is in frequent need of monetary help when it is never short of funds either for its programmes to constantly upgrade its military machine with the latest warfare gadgets or to finance dubious operations against its eastern and western neighbours?
The generous doses of help from China, in cash as well as military equipment and even clandestine transfer of nuclear weapons technology, can be understood. Both China and Pakistan are joined by a common animosity towards India and they lay claim to Indian territories. Terrorism and religious extremisms may have hit parts of China but the country does not react to terrorism the way the rest of the world does.
So much so, it can be understood if China does not admit that it shares the general belief that Pakistan is the hub of global terrorism. But the US and Europe have hardly hidden their disappointment with Pakistan in waging, at best, a half-hearted war against terror while trying to exploit the terrorism factor to collect massive foreign aid.
A ‘bankrupt’ but nuclear-armed Pakistan will not be a welcome sight, for India or the rest of the world. More so its practice of freely milking the affluent countries in the name of fighting terrorism when it clearly has no intention of eliminating the terror infrastructure that it has created over the years as an adjunct of its (anti-India) foreign policy. When the pressure mounts on Pakistan—usually from the US—to show more seriousness and sincerity in the fight against terrorism it resorts to some cosmetic changes. Sometimes a few militants are captured and handed over to the US—against cash. At other times, stories are planted in the media that a reshuffle in the top ranks of the armed forces has been affected to remove officers suspected to have sympathies for the Taliban types from important posts.
The recent change of guard at the ISI headquarters is a case in point. The previous ISI boss—handpicked by the US ‘pet’ Gen (retd) Pervez Musharraf when the latter was president of the country—was said to be playing a double game in the hunt against the home grown and foreign Taliban militants. But it will be difficult to believe that the new boss will go after the same set of militants and extremists with a gusto as long as Pakistan continues to believe that jehadi terrorism must remain an important part of its foreign policy, which in a nutshell looks to ‘re-taking’ Afghanistan for ‘strategic depth’ and ‘bleeding’ India into surrender of Kashmir..
Those who argue that with the ‘free run’ terrorists are enjoying across the country, Pakistan has no option but to turn away from its old policy of nurturing and supporting the jehadi marauders. The proceedings of the ‘in camera’ of Parliament session held for a briefing by the ISI boss show such optimism is misplaced. Most members shied away from any implicit and categorical denunciation of Islamists and Jehadis.
In fact, as both The Dawn and The News International noted on October 19, only as few as 60 of the total 442 MPs were present in the special session. Even the benches of the ruling party remained empty, suggesting not only little interest but also a lack of discipline, given that the party leadership had several times urged everyone to attend. The high rate of absenteeism is rather odd since the session was called to evolve a national consensus on terrorism. The Islamist JUI speaking like the spokesperson of the Taliban demanded that military operations be called off in Swat and Fata, for instance.
The quality of discussion was anything but reassuring, according to reports in Pak media. The session was marked by an exchange between a senior PML-N member and the federal information minister on whether the testimony of two women was equal to one man. Such theological debates will not get Pakistan very far in the global war on terror, which President Zardari says is Pakistan’s own battle within its territory, and the economic meltdown, to name but a few challenges. .No surprise, therefore, bemoaned a leading Karachi daily editorially: “Pakistan politicians have rarely demonstrated the dedication and will required taking a country past crisis and to success”.
The mainstream Pakistan politicians have always supported the jehadi terrorists whom they call ‘freedom fighters’. Those among them who double as ‘real terrorists’ striking within Pakistan may be a cause for worry; maybe some ‘rogue’ elements in the army support them. But the overriding interest in Pakistan is in retaining the terrorist network to further its foreign policy objectives. Frankly, Pakistan is not in a hurry to give up the policy of ‘running with the hare and hunting with the hounds’. This policy worked before President Zardari. It will work during and after Zardari rule also. In fact, as long as powerful governments really matter on the global theatre are not keen on any accountability from the recipient of their charity. (Syndicate Features)
About the Author
Malladi Rama Rao is an analyst and writer on the Indian political scene and geo-political and security issues of South Asia. He directs a Weekly Feature Service in English, Syndicate Features, in colloboration with his wife Vaniram. He is also the India Editor of Asian Tribune.
SYNDICATE FEATURES
B-308, Puneet Apts. B-10, Vasundhara Enclave, Delhi; Ph -22617660 E-mail: syndicatefeatures@rediffmail.com
TALIBAN’S SHADOW OVER ZARDARI’S CHINA VISIT
Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global News Blog
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org
B.RAMAN
President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan is leaving Islamabad on October 14,2008, on an official visit to China. Thereafter, he will be attending the Asia Europe Summit, whis is being hosted by China this year before returning home. He is to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the margins of the summit for bilateral discussions during which he is expected to take up, inter alia, Pakistani allegations of a decrease in the supply of water from the Chenab river by India. There have been complaints in Pakistan that its farmers have been affected because of the alleged diversion of the waters by India to fill up the reservoir of the Baglihar hydel power station in Jammu & Kashmir, which was inaugurated by Manmohan Singh last week.
2.The fact that Zardari’s first bilateral visit as the President has been to China has been highlighted by spokesmen of both the countries as indicative of the continuing importance attached by Pakistan to its relations with China. Zardari has said that he intended visiting China every three months to learn from the Chinese development experience.
3.Pakistan’s efforts to have the two Chinese engineers kidnapped by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on August 29,2008, released before Zardari’s visit have not succeeded. These engineers are believed to be in the custody of the TTP in the Swat Valley of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). They were working in a project of a Chinese mobile telephone company in the Dir District of the NWFP. The TTP has been demanding, inter alia, the release of its members in the custody of the Pakistani authorities. The Pakistani authorities have not agreed to this. Nor have they been able to mount an operation to rescue them. This incident, coming in the wake three other instances last year of targeted attacks on Chinese nationals working in Pakistan, have added to the concerns of the Chinese authorities regarding the security of their personnel working in Pakistan. This is one of the subjects, which the Chinese are expected to take up with Zardari.
4.Of major interest to Pakistan is the possibility of Chinese assistance in helping Pakistan acquire a waiver of the restrictions on nuclear trade with it by the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG), similar to the waiver granted to India by the NSG at the instance of the US on September 5,2008. Before the visit of President Hu Jintao to India and Pakistan in November 2006, the then Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf had taken up with China the question of Chinese assistance for the construction of more nuclear power stations in Pakistan.
5. China has already supplied one 300 MW nuclear power station to Pakistan named Chashma I. This is already functioning. A second power station named Chashma II, also of 300 MW, is presently under construction. The NSG restrictions did not apply to them. It has reportedly agreed in principle to supply two more to be named Chashma III and Chashma IV, provided the NSG grants a waiver to Pakistan from the restrictions. Zardari is expected to discuss with the Chinese the adoption of the same procedure as was followed by the US and India, with China taking the initiative for getting a waiver from the NSG. The problem will be whether the US would be willing to support a waiver in view of Pakistan’s continuing unwillingness to allow the interrogation of Dr.A.Q.Khan, its nuclear scientist involved in nuclear proliferation to North Korea, iran and Libya, by a team of investigators of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at Vienna.
6. The other major issue that would come up for discussion relates to the Gwadar commercial port on the Makran Coast in Balochistan constructed by China and already handed over to Pakistan. Musharraf was keen that the Chinese should construct a petrochemical complex at Gwadar and a gas pipeline and a railway line connecting Gwadar with the Xinjiang province of China. The idea was this would enable China to use the port for its external trade from western China and also get some of its gas tankers to Gwadar and from there have the gas taken by the proposed pipeline to Xinjiang.
7. It is more than a year since the Gwadar port was commissioned by Musharraf. Its performance has been disappointing. It has been reported that only one ocean-going ship used it during its first year. The poor security situation in the area due to the activities of the Baloch freedom-fighters of the Baloch Liberation Army and the failure of the Pakistani engineers to construct in time the road and other infrastructure connecting Gwadar with the rest of Pakistan have come in the way of the port taking off. The expectations that some of the ocean-going trade could be diverted from Karachi to Gwadar have been belied so far. Shippers and businessmen continue to prefer Karachi in spite of the delays in cargo handling there because of the better security situation there and the better infrastructure connecting Karachi with the rest of the country.
8.Till now, the Chinese have not shown much enthusiasm for the proposals for the construction of a petrochemical complex, a pipeline and a railway line. One reason for their lack of enthusiasm is the poor security situation in Balochistan. Another reason is the poor security situation in Xinjiang due to the activities of the Uighur militants. Till the security situation improves in Xinjiang, the Chinese are reported to be not too keen to encourage too much trans-border movement with Pakistan. Moreover, it has been reported that the Chinese have not been convinced of the economic viability of these proposals. In the meanwhile, Pakistan has been trying to make the Chinese take interest in the extension of the proposed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline to Xinjiang, if India continues to drag its feet on the project. (14-10-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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GADAHN IS BACK: URGES MUJAHIDEEN IN PAKISTAN, INDIA & AFGHANISTAN TO UNITE
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO 456
Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Monday, October 13, 2008
Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org
B.RAMAN
Adam Gadahn alias Azzam al-Amriki, an American convert to Islam who headed As Sahab, the propaganda wing of Al Qaeda and was missing since a missile attack by an unmanned US aircraft early in the morning of January 29, 2008, on a house at a village called Khushali Torikhel, 12 kilometres south of Mir Ali town, in North Waziristan, is back. The death of Abu Laith al-Libi, a Libyan national and an important Al Qaeda leader, in this missile attack was announced by a web site (ekhlas.org) associated with Al Qaeda, on January 31,2008. His so-called martyrdom was also confirmed by Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No.2 to bin Laden, in an audio message disseminated on February 27, 2008.
2. The “News” of Pakistan had reported that there was speculation in the tribal areas that Gadahn was also present in the house attacked by the missile and that there were rumours that he was also killed, but this was not confirmed. However,the disappearance of Gadahn after January 29,2008, and his non-appearance in any of the video and audio messages disseminated by As Sahab thereafter gave rise to speculation that he must have been either killed or incapacitated by the missile strike.
3. After an absence of a little over seven months, Gadahn gave sign of life again in a video message disseminated by As Sahab on October 4,2008, coinciding with the end of the Muslim fasting period. The message, which is mainly addressed to the Muslims of Pakistan, with some references to the Muslims of other countries of the South Asian region,including India and Afghanistan, refers to a number of incidents in the Pakistani tribal belt in September, the controversy over the ground attack by the US Special Forces in South Waziristan and the election of Asif Ali Zardari as the President, thus indicating that it must have been recorded in the second half of September. However, it does not refer to the explosion outside the Marriott Hotel of Islamabad on September 20,2008.
4. The message virulently criticises both political and military leaders of Pakistan for the operations undertaken by the Pakistan Army in the Bajaur and Swat areas and for their co-operation with the US. It seeks to question the sincerity of the criticism by Pakistani leaders of the US intrusions into Pakistani territory and air space and to project them as an eye-wash. He calls Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), as a “wolf in wolves’ clothing”.
5. The message contains no direct criticism of India nor of Indian leaders. It does not refer to the serial blasts in various Indian cities since November ,2007. It, however, criticises the Pakistani leaders and agencies, including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), for diverting attention away from the jihad in Jammu and Kashmir in order to carry out military operations in the tribal areas. It also calls for unity of action by the Mujahideen of Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and other countries of the region.
6.The passing references of relevance to India are given below:
* “The Mujahideen and their supporters in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kashmir, India and the region must be on their guard against the plots and conspiracies being hatched against them in the corridors of ISI headquarters, Army House and other centres of Satanic scheming in Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Kabul and must close ranks and must never allow the agents of America and the criminal regimes of the region’s capitals come between them and their brothers.”
* “It is the interference of the hypocrites from the ostensibly helpful Pakistani agencies which has delayed victory in Kashmir for all these long years. It is the liberation of the jihad there from this interference which will be the first step towards victory over the Hindu occupiers of that Muslim land.”
7. There are two intriguing sentences in the message. It says: ” Someone wanted us to imagine that the same Pakistan Government, which is probably responsible for the death of more Muslims in Pakistan than the Americans are and the same Pakistan Army which is mercilessly bombing the Bajaur Agency to please its Crusader backers are both SUDDENLY PREPARED TO FIGHT KUFAR (INFIDELS) INSTEAD OF MUSLIMS. Someone wanted to imply to us that the same Pakistan Army which for seven years has left Pakistan’s borders wide open in front of the Crusaders and Hindus while it fights the Mujahideen and kills defenceless innocents to please its paymasters in Washington IS NOW INTERESTED IN PROTECTING THOSE BORDERS.” (Emphasis mine)
8. Who is that “someone”? Is the Pakistan Army making peace overtures to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) by suggesting that peace in the tribal areas was necessary to enable it to go back to the Line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir and resume assistance for the jihad in Kashmir? He seems to caution the TTP that this is a trap and that it should not fall into it. He describes this as a “classical Pakistani propaganda with no factul basis.”(12-10-08)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
SEVEN YEARS OF OP ENDURING FREEDOM: NO LIGHT YET
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR— PAPER NO.455
Global Geopolitics Viewpoints
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org
B.RAMAN
A bleeding stalemate on the ground in Afghanistan, a bleeding Pakistan tottering towards a possible collapse of the State and a total policy confusion in the corridors of power in Washington DC and other NATO capitals.
2. That has been the outcome of seven years of Operation Enduring Freedom, which was launched by the US on October 7,2001, in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda in the US.
3.In Afghanistan, the US and the other NATO forces and the Afghan National Army (ANA) control Kabul, the Capital, and other major towns and the Neo Taliban, resurrected from the pre-10/7 Taliban , controls the rural areas. Neither is in a position to dislodge the other from the areas controlled by it, but each is able to inflict bloody casualties on the other— the US and other NATO forces through the use of heavy artillery and air strikes and the Taliban through weapons of Pakistani origin and through the inexhaustible flow of suicide terrorists.
4.In Pakistan, a Pakistan-version of the Taliban called the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has arisen post-2002 and has been operating in tandem with the remnants of Al Qaeda, including Osama bin Laden and his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri, who are now reported to be based in the North Waziristan area of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It is a coalition of jihadis, which has been operating in the FATA and in the Swat Valley of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP)—- Afghan Pashtuns, Pakistani Pashtuns and Punjabis, Uzbeks of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), Chechens of the 1980s vintage who had deserted from the Soviet Army, Uighurs of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement in the Xinjiang province of China and Muslims of different ethnicities from the Muslim immigrant diaspora in the West—-jihadis of Pakistani origin from the UK, Spain and Denmark, Turks and Uighurs from Germany and some others.
5. The post-2002 Pakistani version of the Taliban has proved to be even more deadly than its Afghan counterpart. The Pakistani Taliban carried out 56 attacks of suicide terrorism in the tribal and non tribal areas in 2007 and it has already carried out 40 so far this year. The number is just one-third of what the Afghan Taliban has carried out, but strategically more significant and deadly—– attacking carefully chosen military and intelligence targets in heavily-protected cities and cantonments—-even in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, where the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Army are located.
6. In the “News” of October 10, 2008, Dr Muzaffar Iqbal, a Pakistani analyst, wrote: “With an average of three suicide attacks per week in which at least thirty persons die, there will be 1,560 dead Pakistanis within a year. Add to this approximately 15 “extremists” being killed daily in the northern region, and we have a total of 7,035 dead. Further: for every hamlet, village, and hideout bombed, and with every “extremist” killed, we have an average of ten families displaced. So within a year, northern Pakistan will be a huge graveyard and there will be several thousand internally displaced persons living in makeshift camps in the rest of the country. In addition, there will be thousands of emotionally and mentally unstable persons available to anyone who can convince them that life is not worth living anymore, so come on and die for this or that cause. The net result will be an escalation of violence in all parts of the country and the spiral of violence and death reaching all corners of the country. How did we get here? ”
7. A more difficult question engaging the attention of military commanders and policy-makers of the NATO countries is—- is a mid-course correction necessary and how to carry it out? Senior military officers of the NATO have started telling their policy-makers that the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan is unwinnable. Better make a deal with the Taliban to bring the war to an honourable end where there will be neither winners nor losers. However, they are not yet saying that the war against the Taliban in Pakistan is unwinnable. They think that if the Pakistan Army steadily maintains its present offensive in the tribal belt with discreet air support from US Drones (pilotless planes), the TTP can still be defeated.
8. It is a policy nightmare. What one has been seeing in the Pashtun tribal belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghan border is three wars in one—- against the Afghan Neo Taliban, against the Pakistani Taliban and against Al Qaeda. The war against the Afghan Taliban is not vital for the security of the West and for preventing new terrorist strikes in the West. No Afghan Pashtun has ever travelled outside his country to indulge in an act of terrorism in foreign territory. The Afghan Pashtuns, who never indulged in suicide terrorism in the past, look upon their present fight against the US and other NATO forces and their wave of suicide terrorism as part of their resistance struggle against the occupation of their country by foreign forces. They are just not interested in another 9/11 in the US homeland or another Madrid or London or Bali or Mumbai.
9. The war against Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban is vital for the security of the rest of the world, including the US, other NATO countries, India, China, Russia and the Central Asian Republics. The tribals, whom the Pakistani Army used in Jammu & Kashmir in 1947-48, 1965, 1971 and 1999, were brought from the FATA. Many of the jihadis, who had indulged in acts of terrorism in different parts of the world after 2001, were trained in the training camps of Al Qaeda and its allies in the FATA. If the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda are not defeated, the world will have to live constantly under the fear of another 9/11 or another Madrid or London or Bali or Mumbai.
10. Is it possible to reach a separate peace with the Afghan Taliban, while continuing the war against Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban? The US is in the forefront of the war against the Afghan Taliban. It can take a decision, whether to continue fighting or whether to reach a peace and, if so, under what terms.The outcome of the war against Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban depends more on the sincerity and willingness of the Pakistani security forces to fight the war to the finish, with US assistance. It is the Pakistan Army, which has to be in the forefront of this war. It has been fighting sporadically and with varying spells of intensity, but the determination to win the war is not there.
11. Just as US officers have come to the conclusion that the war against the Afghan Taliban is unwinnable and hence calls for a mix of the military and political approaches, the Pakistani officers too are coming to the conclusion that the war against the TTP is unwinnable on the ground and hence a different approach is called for in order to protect their population and security forces from the wave of suicide terrorism.
12. Is it possible to make peace with the Taliban on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghan border without weakening the war against the FATA-based Al Qaeda? With whome to negotiate? On the Afghan side, there are two vintages of the Taliban—the pre 10/7 vintage, which consists essentially of the political advisers of Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir, before 10/7 and the post-2002 vintage which consists of the remnants of the pre-10/7 commanders such as Jalalludin Haqqani and his son Serjuddin and the new commanders who have come to the fore in the recent fighting. The recent interactions between the representatives of the Government of Hamid Karzai and the Taliban under the auspices of the King of Saudi Arabia in Saudi Arabia during September were essentially with the Taliban of the pre-10/7 vintage.
13. Among those who reportedly attended the dinner were Mullah Muhammad Ghaus, a former Foreign Minister under the Taliban Government, Abdel Hakim Mujahed, former unofficial Taliban representative in the United Nations, Abdul Salaam Hashimi, former director of finance of the Hizb-e-Islami of Gulbuddin Heckmatyar, Maulvi Arsala Rahmani, a former Deputy Minister, Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil, another former Foreign Minister, and Mullah Abdul Salaam Zaif, former Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan. The influence of these leaders on Mulla Omar was limited even before 10/7. Before 10/7, the Saudi Intelligence had repeatedly tried through them to persuade Mulla Omar to hand over bin Laden to Saudi Arabia in order to avoid an American military strike. They could not succeed. Some of them were either captured by the Americans or surrendered to them after the war began and were in US custody for some months before they were released. They are, therefore, viewed with suspicion by the Taliban commanders.
14. Moreover, the US and other NATO forces may want a political face-saving because they are not doing well in the fighting, but why should the Taliban Commanders want one when they think they are winning? The same is the situation on the Pakistan side of the border. The TTP thinks it is doing well against the Pakistani security forces. Why should it agree to a compromise without achieving its objective?
15.Gen . David Petraeus, who was till recently the Commander of the US forces in Iraq, is shortly taking over as the Commander of the US Central Command. In that capacity, he will be responsible for the strategy in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. In Iraq, he successfully drove a wedge between the secular Iraqi resistance fighters and the Wahabised Arab terrorists of Al Qaeda. There is a talk that he might try a similar approach in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region by driving a wedge between the Taliban on both sides of the border and the Al Qaeda remnants. He succeeded in Iraq because the former Baathists of Saddam Hussein’s Army, who constituted the resistance fighters, were secular and did not like the Wahabised Al Qaeda. But, in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, Wahabism provides the binding ties which strongly unite the Talibans with Al Qaeda. They all feel that the future of Islam is going to be decided in the fight against the US-led NATO forces. They have two common objectives— the defeat and withdrawal of the NATO forces and the proclamation of an Islamic sharia-based rule in the entire region. So long as these objectives unite them, the Talibans are unlikely to agree to separate peace with the NATO forces. Media reports of a split between the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda have not been substantiated.
16. Unless and until the US is able to hunt down and kill at least bin Laden, Zawahiri and Mulla Omar, there is unlikely to be a change in the ground situation. Instead of nursing illusions of engineering a split between Al Qaeda and the Taliban and negotiating a separate peace with the Taliban, the US should focus on eliminating the Al Qaeda leadership. That was the main objective of Op Enduring Freedom and that should continue to be its main objective. (11-10-08)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
SRI LANKA: Cornered Tamil Rebels Resort to Suicide Bombings
Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
October 6, 2008
All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.
IPS Correspondents
COLOMBO, Oct 6 (IPS) – Cornered by the Sri Lankan army in their northern stronghold of Kilinochchi, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) struck back on Monday with the deadliest weapon in their arsenal, the suicide bomber, killing a former army chief and 24 other people.
Retired Maj. Gen. Janaka Perera, one of Sri Lanka’s most popular and decorated military commanders, was killed while inaugurating the new offices of the main opposition United National Party (UNP), of which he was the local leader. His wife was among those who died in the blast.
In recent months, the LTTE has lost considerable stretches of territory and now faces the army’s forward brigades at the gates of its political nerve centre, Kilinochchi.
Since the early 1990s, LTTE suicide cadres, called Black Tigers, have been responsible for the deaths of one Sri Lankan president, a former Indian prime minister, at least four Sri Lankan ministers and a navy commander. Former President Chandrika Kumaratunga narrowly escaped a suicide bomber attack in 1999, but lost an eye.
[Read more...]
AL QAEDA & THE MARRIOTT HOTEL CHAIN
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR–PAPER NO.448
Global Intel Net – Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org
B.RAMAN
Since 9/11, the Marriott Hotel Chain has been the victim of six terrorist strikes mounted by Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist organisations. On four occasions—- thrice in Islamabad and once in Jakarta— it was directly targeted. On the remaining two occasions (New York and Karachi) it was a collateral victim of a terrorist strike not directly targeting it.
2. On 9/11, the destruction of the two towers of the New York World Centre by Al Qaeda destroyed the New York Marriott World Trade Center Hotel and damaged the 504-room Marriott Financial Center located there. Some senior executives of the hotel chain, who had their offices in the towers, were killed.
3.On June 14, 2002,the Marriott Hotel in Karachi suffered minor damages when a suicide car bomb exploded near the US Consulate in the same area. Eleven persons—-mostly passers-by—were killed. The hotel was not targeted.On August 5, 2003, the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta was the direct target of an attack in which 14 people were killed. The pro-Al Qaeda Jemmah Islamiya was suspected. On October 28, 2004,the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad suffered some damage to its lobby, as a bomb went off inside the hotel. Fifteen persons were injured, including an American diplomat.On January 26, 2007, an alleged suicide bomber and a private security guard, who stopped him for questioning, were killed when the terrorist blew himself up in the parking lot of the hotel.
4. In the third attack directly targeting the hotel at Islamabad on September 20,2008, sixty persons—including some foreigners— were reported to have been killed when a truck bomber carrying about one ton of explosive blew the truck up, when he was stopped for questioning at the gate by the security guards. The explosion, which practically destroyed part of the hotel causing a major fire,, took place on a day when physical security in Islamabad was very tight since only a few hours before the explosion President Asif Ali Zardari addressed a joint session of the two houses of the Parliament. The Parliament House, the Presidency, the Prime Minister’s House, offices of ministers, the judges colony and the housing colony of some of the staff of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) are located near the hotel.
5. Hotels and restaurants with suspected Jewish ownership have been among the favourite targets of Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations. Al Qaeda had also targeted the Hilton Hotel in Sharm-el-Sheikh in 2005 and the Jewish-owned Paradise Hotel in Mombasa in 2002. Pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorists had targeted French submarine construction engineers staying in the Sheraton Hotel of Karachi in May,2002.
6. Apart from suspected Jewish ownership, another reason for the targeting of the Marriott hotels in Jakarta and Islamabad are the fact that often Western Embassies in these capitals use these hotels for providing accommodation to their staff and visiting officials. They also hire a large number of rooms in the hotels for temporarily locating some of their offices till permanent accommodation is found.
7. Pakistani authorities suspect thast the explosion of September 20,2008, might have been carried out by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in retaliation for the current operation s of the Pakistani security forces in the Swat Valley of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and in the Bajaur Agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Another suspicion voiced by them is that the Parliament House might have been the real target of the attack and that the bomber instead went to the hotel when he found that access control to the Parliament House was tight.
8. Even though it may turn out to be correct that the suicide bomber was a Pashtun tribal from the TTP, Al Qaeda involvement in the planning and execution is a strong possibility. Since the commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July last year, the TTP and individual terrorists acting on their own have repeatedly demonstrated a capability for terrorist strikes in highly-protected areas in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, where the General Headquarters of the Army are located, and other cantonments. They had even targeted the GHQ itself as well as the offices of the ISI. In most of these cases, the explosions took place under identical circumstances—-the suicide bomber triggering the explosion when stopped for questioning by the security personnel.
9. Since the beginning of 2007, there have been nearly 300 suicide explosions in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Most of these strikes are believed to have originated from Pakistan’s tribal belt where Al Qaeda and the Taliban have their sanctuaries. These statistics and the continuing wave of suicide strikes or attempted strikes show the inexhaustible availability of explosives and detonators and volunteers for suicide terrorism in the tribal belt. Neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan nor the US nor the other NATO forces have been able to come out with a workable answer to the question as to how to dry up these sources of supply. Unless an answer is found to this question, one has to watch helplessly as suicide bombers spread death and destruction. Whereas in India, the jihadi terrorists have been switching over to commonly available material such as a mix of ammonium nitrate and fuel oil, the terrorists in Pakistan seem to have a plentiful supply of high military-grade explosives. (21-9-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
