CHINESE ECONOMY MONITOR—NOTE No.3

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – Chennai Center for China Studies
www.c3sindia.org

B.RAMAN

( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been bringing out a periodic “Chinese Economy Monitor” based on open information. This is the third in the series—B. Raman)

CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY, THE NEED OF THE HOUR, SAYS WEN

Summing up the discussions at the Asia-Europe Meeting Summit held in Beijing, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao told the media on October 24, 2008, as follows: “We will discuss with world leaders on measures to cope with the financial crisis in a pragmatic and cooperative manner.I think what we should do to cope with the crisis can be summarized as confidence, cooperation and responsibility.We are very glad to see that many countries have taken measures that have initially proved effective. But this is not enough given the current situation, and more needs to be done.The stability of financial market is key to stabilizing the whole economy. The first important message that the two-day summit has conveyed is firm confidence, and I think confidence is the source of power to overcome difficulties.”

—- Source Xinhua
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PERU: Free Trade Opens Environmental Window

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Saturday, November 01, 2008

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Milagros Salazar* – Tierramérica

LIMA, Nov 1 (IPS) – Legislative decree 1090, which modifies Peru’s forest policy, is worrying U.S. trade authorities because it contravenes environmental clauses of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that is to enter force between the two countries in January 2009.

The decree, which in June amended the Forestry and Wildlife Act, leaves 45 million hectares — or 60 percent of Peru’s jungles — out of the Forestry Heritage protection system — a step that runs counter to the FTA forestry annex.

That was one of the 10 observations made by the Office of the U.S Trade Representative, Susan Schwab, in a meeting with delegates of the Peruvian government earlier this month in Washington, according to Sandro Chávez, president of the non-governmental Ecological Forum (Foro Ecológico).
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EAST AFRICA: Trade Opportunities Turn Out To Be Death Traps

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, October 28, 2008

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Wambi Michael

KAMPALA, Oct 28 (IPS) – New trade opportunities after 20 years of fighting in Southern Sudan have turned out to be death traps for traders because of violence and physical intimidation by the military and civilians alike.

More than 100 trucks and buses from Uganda pass daily through the border at Nimule to Southern Sudan, carrying foodstuffs, construction materials, groceries and beverages from Uganda and Kenya.

The trade has largely been profitable since the Sudanese civil war ended in 2005 but traders are now threatening to pull out of Sudan, complaining about extreme violence, intimidation from the military and civilians and unfair ‘‘duties”.

Some female traders have allegedly been raped while others have lost their lives.
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SRI LANKA: War May Cost Trade Benefits From EU

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

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Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Oct 21 (IPS) – By refusing to allow the European Union to probe implementation of international labour and human rights covenants, on the grounds of sovereignty infringement, the Sri Lankan government may be jeopardising trade concessions and risking jobs in this country.

The proposed EU probe is widely seen by political analysts as a tool to get the government to address alleged human rights abuses and lack of humanitarian help for thousands of civilians stranded in northern Sri Lanka where Tamil rebels are fighting to save their last strongholds.

In no uncertain terms, International Trade Minister Prof. G. L. Peiris told reporters on Monday that the EU’s request for a probe was an infringement of Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, self respect and dignity. He said Brussels has been informed of this course of action through Sri Lanka’s envoy there.
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TRADE-AFRICA: Customs Union to Be Launched at COMESA Summit

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Friday, October 17, 2008

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Stanley Kwenda

HARARE, Oct 17 (IPS) – Following the signing of a power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe on September 15, the country seems to be growing in confidence. Harare has announced that it will now host the 13th Common Market for East and Southern Africa (COMESA) summit in the resort town of Victoria Falls.

This will be a second chance for some of the rich pickings that come with hosting an event of such a magnitude. The summit was initially set to take place in May this year but was cancelled at the last minute after state-sponsored violence engulfed the country following President Robert Mugabe’s loss to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai in a first-round presidential election in March.

The violence also forced Tsvangirai to pull out of the second round presidential vote after about 200 of his supporters were killed and close to 25,000 were displaced in the run-up to the June 27 election. Mugabe went on to win the run-off poll uncontested and immediately swore himself in as president, a move which was heavily criticised by many world leaders.
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TRADE-SOUTHERN AFRICA: The Deal’s Signed But Where’s The Action?

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – Global Analyst Online – IPS
Friday, September 12, 2008

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Stanley Kwenda

HARARE, Sep 12 (IPS) – Cross-border trader Florence Tjani is sceptical about the free trade agreement (FTA) recently signed by southern African states.

‘‘The problem is that our leaders just sign these agreements and it ends there. The only countries that seem to be implementing free trade agreements are Zambia and Mozambique. They at least allow people to trade freely.

‘‘In Zimbabwe and South Africa you need a lot of papers simply to do business. Why can’t we be like ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) which allows citizens to do business without any hassles?” asked Tjani, who originally hails from Ghana in West Africa. She owns a clothing and personal care shop in Harare.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) signed the FTA last month. Despite it being a long time in the making, the signatories seemed not to have put in place the necessary mechanisms to make the FTA a reality yet.

Many informal traders, most of whom are women, are not aware of the development. Tjani read about the signing of the FTA in the newspaper but is yet to experience the benefits of such an agreement, she told IPS.
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TRADE: UAE Takes Part in ITB Asia 2008

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – Global Politics Online – IPS
Wednesday, September 10, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Att.Editors: The following item is from the Emirates News Agency (WAM)

ABU DHABI, Sep. 10 (IPS) – The United Arab Emirates will be participating in the world’s largest travel trade show, ITB Asia, a three day B2B trade show and convention which will bring together more 5000 travel and tourism experts from more than 50 countries.

The Oct. 22-24 event is set to feature the full range of travel products, services and goods, while at the same time functioning as a knowledge platform for the industry with the concurrently held ITB Asia Convention and events by partners.

Top officials from the UAE tourism and travel industry will also engage in talks at the event on challenges facing travel industry worldwide.

Messe Berlin, organizer of the world’s largest travel trade show, of ITB Asia 2008 told WAM that companies and agencies that have ambitions and take advantage of the available opportunities will achieve success in today’s tourism and travel landscape.

ITB Asia will feature the full range of travel products, services and goods, while at the same time functioning as a knowledge platform for the industry with the concurrently held ITB Asia Convention and events by partners.

Technological and intellectual changes (such as virtual travel and tourism) are faster in Asia than in other parts of the world and are driven by increasing demand in India and China.

TRADE: Old Talks Never Die

Global Geopolitics – Global Politics Online – IPS
Monday, September 01, 2008

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Gustavo Capdevila

GENEVA, Sep 1 (IPS) – ”History tells us that multilateral trade negotiations never die, and the current Doha Round is no exception,” said economist Carlos Pérez del Castillo, Uruguay’s former permanent representative to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and chairman of the global body’s General Council in 2003 and 2004.

But the failure of the latest talks, held in Geneva, Switzerland in late July, strongly suggests that ”the negotiations will now enter a period of hibernation,” Pérez del Castillo told IPS.

”Things will pick up again in due time, when conditions are ripe for the parties to engage in meaningful negotiations, but this is unlikely to happen until the second half of 2009, at the earliest,” he predicted.
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TRADE-KENYA: British Imports Losing Their Appeal

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Tuesday, August 26, 2008

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Charles Wachira

NAIROBI, Aug 26 (IPS) – When Kenya purchased Toyota vehicles for its military forces, instead of the all-pervasive Land Rover, it signalled a seismic change — in effect ending the most favoured status enjoyed by imports sourced from its erstwhile colonial master the United Kingdom.

Another example is De la Rue, a UK-based printing and security firm that has uninterruptedly printed Kenyan currency since independence. It is fighting to retain its contract. The administration of Mwai Kibaki broke with tradition, inviting other internationally recognised firms to bid for the job.

The London-based firm J&S Franklin Ltd served as a single-source supplier of uniforms and combat kits for the armed forces since Kenya ‘‘unshackled” itself from British colonial rule in 1963. It has recently been blackballed by Kenya’s department of defence when its contract was terminated to the benefit of a Chinese firm.

Similarly Brooke Marine and Vosper Thornycroft, two British companies that have exclusively supplied ships to Kenya’s navy since independence, have had to contend with the phenomenon of open tendering.
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TRADE-CARIBBEAN: EU Pact Hit by Last-Minute Revolt

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – IPS
Monday, August 25, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Peter Ischyrion

PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad, Aug 25 (IPS) – Eight months after congratulating themselves for having become the first region within the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) grouping to conclude negotiations with the European Union on a new trade and economic pact, Caribbean leaders are getting cold feet as the time draws near to affix their signatures to the document.

So far they have not kept to three earlier suggested dates, and it now seems that the Sep. 2 ceremony to be held in Barbados may not take place.

Instead, Barbadian Prime Minister David Thompson has called for an urgent meeting of the 15-member Caribbean Community (Caricom) leaders as uncertainly surrounds how many regional states will now sign the agreement.

Thompson has sent a letter to Caricom’s chairman, Baldwin Spencer, who is also the prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, expressing concerns about the ”untenable inconsistencies” among member states regarding the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) that was negotiated between Europe and the Caribbean Forum (CARIFORM) that also includes Caricom.

The regional leaders’ position is in sharp contrast to the communiqué issued at the end of their annual summit held in Antigua in July.

According to the four brief paragraphs allocated to the EPA, ”several of them (had) expressed readiness to sign”. Last week, Barbados gave an emphatic ”yes” to signing the agreement in September.

”Our position is that we are proceeding, there have been no instructions from the heads of government or from the prime ministerial subcommittee on external negotiations, which is chaired by Jamaica, that such a signing on that date ought not to take place,” said Foreign Affairs, Foreign Trade and International Business Minister Christopher Sinckler.

”We believe that after three to four years of intense negotiation, the option of opening up that agreement to renegotiation at this stage is just not a feasible option. We doubt very much in our minds that it would be agreed to by the European Commission,” he said.

But a Barbados government legislator, James Paul, earlier this month accused regional stakeholders who brokered the EPA of failing their people by agreeing to a ”bad deal”.

”We were prepared to sit down and listen to the garbage coming out of Europe about free trade without really examining what they were doing,” he told participants of a CARIFORUM-EU review meeting.

Carl Greenidge, the deputy senior director of the Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery (CRNM) that negotiated the EPA on behalf of Caricom, said last week that regional states that do not sign would not be able to derail the implementation of the new trade deal.

”If one (Caricom) country chooses not to sign at all, and they persuade the European Union that they don’t have the intention of signing, the regulation that the European Union passed on Dec. 20 requires that that country be taken off the list,” he said, explaining that the country would also be excluded from any of the institutional arrangements.

Guyana is not among those countries willing to sign the EPA at present. Like some Caribbean trade unions, academics, opposition parties and non-governmental organisations, Georgetown has been calling for a re-negotiation of the accord and has said it would only sign on after holding public consultations that are scheduled to start after the country hosts the 10-day Caribbean Festival of Arts (CARIFESTA) — the region’s premier cultural festival — which began on Aug. 22.
Last week, President Bharrat Jagdeo continued his attack on the EPA, noting that ACP countries had not been in favour of replacing the traditional ACP unit with EPAs and regional groupings.

”We have always resisted this. We thought that this would be problematic because they’re breaking the traditional ACP solidarity that we had, and you know with solidarity comes strength, especially with negotiations and secondly to argue for WTO compatibility, for small countries, developing countries in the world,” he said.

”This was contrary to the spirit of successive international agreements which argued that there should be special and differential treatment of these countries in international trade and economic international relations,” Jagdeo added.

Caribbean countries signed on primarily due to Europe’s significant negotiating power, which was no match for the Caribbean’s ”tiny” economies, he argued.

”If you combine the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of all the countries in our region, it would be less than the assets of a large bank in Europe, so you can imagine how unbalanced, how uneven the negotiations are because you’re not negotiating as two equal partners. They got their way because they’re essentially a bigger power and they can always threaten to cut off their markets,” he said.

However, Ralph Gonsalves, the Prime Minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and one of the main supporters of the EPA, urged his colleagues to sign because ”it is preferable to sign than not to sign”.

”I, for instance, I am a right-hander. I will probably put my right hand on my heart and sign with my left hand. What I am indicating by that metaphorically is that one would wish that you had a better quote unquote deal. But you can manage in the circumstances,” he said.

In Jamaica, where the Bruce Golding administration supports the EPA, the main opposition People’s National Party (PNP) says it plans to raise serious concerns about the deal when Parliament resumes next month.

And St. Lucia’s Prime Minister Stephenson King, like his newly elected Grenadian counterpart, Tillman Thomas, flatly says he will not sign the deal as it currently stands.

”Based on the advice we have been receiving from several quarters we, as members of the Caribbean Community, are now in a better position to say let us slow down a minute and engage in a further review of the real value of the EPA to the region.”

”We are to appeal to the president of France to meet with us and consider some areas of concern and see whether we can get the European Community to understand and support our position,” he added.

The Caribbean Policy Development Centre (CPDC) said it welcomed the new cautious approach by some governments.

”CPDC will like to reiterate its call for Caribbean governments to push for the renegotiation of the agreement even at this time, to correct the flaws and the contentious areas within the agreement,” it said in a statement.

CPDC Senior Programme Officer Shantal Munro-Knight said that her agency was saddened by the dismissive nature of some regional leaders toward those who are speaking out against the EPA.

”When it comes to engaging our population and to taking on board dissenting voices, our leaders and technocrats are dismissive and insulting. We seemed to have forgotten the true nature of representative democracy. Debate fuels growth, new learning and change and particularly about something so important, such debate should be encouraged not stifled or ignored,” she said.