CHINESE ECONOMY MONITOR—NOTE No.3

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – Chennai Center for China Studies
www.c3sindia.org

B.RAMAN

( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been bringing out a periodic “Chinese Economy Monitor” based on open information. This is the third in the series—B. Raman)

CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY, THE NEED OF THE HOUR, SAYS WEN

Summing up the discussions at the Asia-Europe Meeting Summit held in Beijing, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao told the media on October 24, 2008, as follows: “We will discuss with world leaders on measures to cope with the financial crisis in a pragmatic and cooperative manner.I think what we should do to cope with the crisis can be summarized as confidence, cooperation and responsibility.We are very glad to see that many countries have taken measures that have initially proved effective. But this is not enough given the current situation, and more needs to be done.The stability of financial market is key to stabilizing the whole economy. The first important message that the two-day summit has conveyed is firm confidence, and I think confidence is the source of power to overcome difficulties.”

—- Source Xinhua
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HAITI: Activists Urge World Bank to Erase Crippling Debt

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Friday, October 31, 2008

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Nergui Manalsuren

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 31 (IPS) – On a recent visit to the hurricane-ravaged island of Haiti, World Bank President Robert Zoellick declared that 500 million dollars of Haiti’s 1.7-billion-dollar foreign debt had been cancelled, and the rest would be soon be written off as well.

However, Haitian and international civil society groups say that his comments were misleading. None of the debt has actually been forgiven yet, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and bank just this month delayed Haiti’s entrance into the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative (HIPC) — a condition for debt relief — by six months.

Dan Beeton, an analyst at the Washington-based Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), said that he hopes that Haiti’s debt cancellation will be expedited, and that the World Bank and IMF, along with creditors France and the U.S., will cancel the debt without requiring Haiti to ”jump through more hoops”.

”However,” he said, ”the institution that has really power to make this happen is the U.S. Treasury Department.”
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FINANCE: Revolt Against ”Elite Clubs” Grows at U.N.

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Thursday, October 30, 2008

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Wolfgang Kerler

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 30 (IPS) – U.N. member states and economists challenged the neo-liberal policies of market deregulation that have long been promoted by powerful global financial institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), and called Thursday for a new, more inclusive global financial architecture.

Nobel Prize-winning U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz stressed that ”the current economic crisis should provide an opportunity to reassess global economic arrangements and prevalent economic doctrines”, as he spoke at a panel on the ongoing global financial crisis, held by the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday.

Stiglitz is supposed to head a new U.N. task force of experts to undertake a review of the international financial system — including its major institutions — and to make proposals for how a more stable global economic order could be achieved. Other members of the task force are to be announced in the near future.
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SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Financial Meltdown Prompts Return to Agriculture

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Thursday, October 30, 2008

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Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Oct 30 (IPS) – As South-east Asia feels the heal of the global financial meltdown leaders are turning to the informal sector, particularly agriculture, as a potential provider of employment.

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi echoed such a sentiment this week, resurrecting a view that had emerged after a financial crisis swept through this region in 1997. The Malaysian agriculture sector will help the country to ‘’cushion the impact of the economic downturn,” he said during an encounter with farmers, according to local press reports.

The agriculture sector accounts for about 60 percent of South-east Asia’s informal sector, which is estimated to have 161 million workers, states a new study on labour trends released by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

‘’Agriculture still accounts for 44.5 percent of (the region’s) total employment, albeit with considerable variations across countries, ranging from less than one percent in Singapore to over 80 percent in Laos,” the ILO study said.

The past decade has also seen South-east Asian cities, which have expanded due to rapid urbanisation and migration from rural areas, taking on a greater role as a venue for the informal labour pool, adds the ILO. Food vendors along the streets are typical of this trend. A majority of them are women, giving ‘’vulnerable” work a ‘’feminine face”.

The number of workers in the informal sector are set to increase as jobs in the region’s formal economic sector, ranging from industries to services, become limited, says Gyorgy Sziraczki, senior economist at the ILO’s Asia-Pacific regional office in Bangkok. ‘’Employers will either delay hiring or freeze new recruitment and the wage growth will slow down, with pay increases lesser than in past years.”

‘’There will be 850,000 fewer jobs created in 2008 than in 2007. And by 2009, that number could go up to 1.27 million fewer jobs in the region,” he revealed in an interview. ‘’The number of unemployed in the region may rise to 18.5 million in 2009 as against the 16.5 million unemployed people in 2007.”

Such dismal estimates are a contrast to the robust economic growth the region experienced till the onset of the spike in oil and food prices early this year and soaring inflation in some countries in the 10-member regional bloc, the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN). The region’s growth of 6.4 percent in 2007, up from six percent the previous year, ‘’was the highest in over a decade,” states the ILO in its ‘Labour and Social Trends in ASEAN 2008′.

‘’The region’s strong economic performance in 2007 had a positive impact on its labour markets,” adds the 116-page report. ‘’Employment in ASEAN member countries increased from 260.6 million in 2006 to 268.5 million in 2007 — an increase of three percent, or 7.9 million additional jobs.”

The impact from the financial crash will be felt in the export sector in countries like the Philippines, which depends on the Japanese and U.S. markets.

This week, Thailand’s labour ministry revealed that 120 companies had shut down from January till October in industries dealing in food, garments and furniture.

Burma’s garment sector, which exports to Japan and the European Union, may also experience factory closures and workers being laid off, according to the military-ruled country’s garment manufacturers association.

But unlike a decade ago, governments appear more prepared to deal with layoffs and lack of work in the formal economy, says Raj Kumar, at the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), a regional U.N. body based in Bangkok. ‘’The 1997 financial crisis caught governments by surprise and there was little preparation to help people affected by the economies that went into negative growth.”

‘’They have learnt some of the lessons since then and are already talking about it,” he told IPS. ‘’The current talk about the role the agriculture sector will have to play to absorb people from the formal economy was never discussed before the ‘97 crash.”

Yet such expectations for the informal sector — particularly agriculture — to help people from cities to return back to their homes in rural areas and serve as a safety net are not limitless. More so since the rural heartland of many South-east Asian countries have been ignored in the past 10 years, with limited amounts of investment pouring in from national budgets to improve infrastructure and agriculture outputs.

‘’There has been a serious neglect of the agriculture sector in the past decade. The investments have gone down,” says Diderik de Vleeschauwer, spokesman for the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) Asia-Pacific office. ‘’Those areas are not what they used to be in ‘97.”

The land area available for agriculture has also decreased, he told IPS. ‘’This is because of new land-use patterns, land being sold for non-agriculture purposes such as hotels and golf courses and the drastic impact of climate change.”

In fact in the Philippines, a country expected to face the brunt of the economic downturn, there is little hope for people who migrated to the cities from the provinces in search of work to go back home.

‘’The agriculture sector in the Philippines is at a very low point because the government’s investment in agriculture is not a priority,” says Jillian Roque, research and advocacy officer at Public Services Labour Independent Confederation, a Manila-based national union of government workers.

‘’The only option available for the Filipinos, who end up in the informal sector is to search for jobs abroad,” she said in a telephone interview about a country that already has 10 percent of its population as overseas migrant workers. ‘’There will be an increase in people wanting to leave the country even if there is a threat of abuse and exploitation. The crisis is creating a sense of desperation.”

FINANCE: NGOs Call for Radical Reforms as IMF Offers New Loans

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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

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Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Oct 29 (IPS) – Two weeks before U.S. President George W. Bush hosts an economic summit to address the six-week-old financial crisis that has wreaked havoc on the world’s capital and stock markets, a coalition of nearly 600 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) from 88 countries is calling for a ”fundamental and far-reaching transformation on the international financial and economic system.”

In a statement released Wednesday, the groups demanded that the upcoming Group of 20 meeting Nov. 15 here to the way for a much broader and more inclusive reform effort in which all of the world’s governments and international civil society should participate.

”It is of course imperative to agree on immediate measures to address the crisis, and we emphasise that priority must be given to responses to the impacts on ordinary employees and workers, low-income households, pensioners and other extremely vulnerable sectors,” according to the statement that was signed by Friends of the Earth, ActionAid, and Social Watch, among other international groups.

”But we are deeply concerned that the proposed meetings will be carried out in a rushed and non-inclusive manner, and, as a result, not address the comprehensive range of changes needed, nor fairly allocate their burden,” it said.

The groups, which also included Civicus, the European Network on Debt and Development (EURODAD), and Jubilee, decried what they called a ”double standard” by which wealthy western governments, in dealing with the crisis, were currently engaged in the kind of government intervention that western-dominated institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had forbidden their poor-country borrowers.

”The double standard is not only unacceptable, but it also signals the demise of free-market fundamentalism,” the statement said. ”The international financial system, its architecture and its institutions must be completely rethought.”

The statement comes on the eve of the first meeting of a U.N. task force set up by Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and chaired by Economics Nobel Laureate and former World Bank Chief Economist Joseph Stiglitz to make recommendations about how to cope with the ongoing crisis.

It also comes as the IMF announced the creation of the a new lending arm, the Short-Term Liquidity Facility (SLF), that will have the authority to lend up to five times a borrowing country’s quota to help it overcome temporary liquidity problems in global capital markets.

”Exceptional times call for an exceptional response,” said the IMF’s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn. ”The Fund is responding quickly and flexibly to requests for financing. We are offering some countries substantial resources on an expedited basis, with conditions based only on measures absolutely necessary to get past the crisis and to restore a viable external position.”

Creation of the SLF, which is similar to the Contingent Credit Line facility created by the IMF during the Asian crisis of 1997-98, has been considered urgent over the last couple of weeks as it became clear that the credit crisis that began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment firm last month was rapidly spreading to emerging markets and poor countries whose economies are dependent on commodity exports.

Still, critics have warned that, given the growing line of countries, starting with Iceland, Ukraine, and Hungary and Pakistan, in desperate need of the estimated 250 billion dollars the IMF has available, the SLF may not be sufficient to keep up with demand.

Thus, Strauss-Kahn made a point of welcoming Wednesday’s announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the central banks of Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Singapore to set up swap lines of up to 30 billion dollars to boost liquidity in emerging markets. Similar lines have already been set up between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank and with the central banks of the Australia and New Zealand.

The Nov. 15 G-20 summit at the National Building Museum will include the leaders of the major industrialised countries and emerging markets, such as China, India, Brazil, and Mexico. It has been billed by some European leaders, notably British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, as a ”new Bretton Woods”, a reference to the New Hampshire resort where in 1944 U.S. and British finance officials laid the groundwork for the post-World War II western-dominated economic order overseen by the IMF and the World Bank.

Bush, who will be a lame duck when the summit convenes, is expected to oppose any moves that could result in big changes in the way those two agencies are run, particularly given the disproportionate voting power Washington — including the ability to veto any major policy changes — enjoys on their governing boards. The Europeans, who also exercise disproportionate power on the boards, appear to be more favourably inclined toward reform.

”There is no doubt that these institutions need reform when Belgium has the same amount of votes as China,” noted Louis Belanger of Oxfam International.

It has been through the combined voting power of the U.S. and other western industrialised powers that the Bank and the IMF have imposed the so-called ”Washington Consensus” — policies that require borrowing countries to implement neo-liberal, ”market-friendly” policies and reduce the role of government in their economies — over the last 30 years.

Grassroots and many international NGOs have long claimed that these policies have mainly benefited western-based multi-national corporations, often to the detriment of the poorest and most vulnerable populations in borrowing countries whose governments were forced to cut their budgets and adopt austerity measures recommended by the Bank and the IMF.

To them, the response to current crisis in both North America and Europe demonstrates the bankruptcy of both the ”Washington Consensus” and the agencies that enforced it.

”To stave off regional and global recessions and restore stability and confidence in the market, northern governments are pursuing a massive and unprecedented program of government intervention, nationalising banks, injecting massive subsidies into ailing institutions and re-regulating their financial sectors,” they said.

These measures stand ”in direct contrast to the austere neo-liberal policies pressed on developing countries by the World Bank, the IMF, and developed countries for the past thirty years.”

”These policies have failed spectacularly,” said Vitalis Meja, coordinator for the African Forum & Network on Debt and Development (Afrodad). ”And now, the response is to bring 20 governments to Washington for a new ‘Washington Consensus’.”

Writing in the Financial Times Wednesday, financier and philanthropist George Soros noted that, ”The so-called Washington consensus imposed strict market discipline on other countries but the U.S. was exempt from it.”

In the NGOs’ view, any attempted reform of the current system should best be pursued under auspices of the United Nations where each country has a vote.

”Since the impacts are likely to be the greatest on the poorest people, and in emerging economies and developing countries,” noted Lidy Nacpil of Jubilee South — Asia/Pacific Movement on Debt and Development, ”shouldn’t all countries — governments and peoples — have a say, not just those responsible for this crisis?”

”Any attempt by the most powerful countries to stitch up a deal with no public consultation and no involvement of the majority of the world’s countries through an inclusive process will only further undermine public trust and confidence,” added Roberto Bissio of Social Watch.

MEXICO: Oil Reforms Leave State in the Red

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

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Diego Cevallos

MEXICO CITY, Oct 29 (IPS) – The oil industry reforms approved by the Mexican Congress and applauded by the government and most of the country’s parties, with the exception of factions on the left and part of the business community, will deprive the state of a source of funding that currently finances 40 percent of the public budget.

”Good for the oil industry, which will now have more funds, but the lack of an alternative source of financing for the state is very worrisome,” Roberto Gutiérrez, an expert on energy issues at the Autonomous Metropolitan University (UAM), told IPS.

From 2009 to 2016, the flow of funds from the state oil monopoly PEMEX to the state coffers will gradually be reduced, according to the reforms approved Tuesday by the lower house of Congress after six months of heated debate. (They passed the Senate last week).

The hope is that by increasing the proportion of revenues left in the hands of the oil company, Pemex will improve its performance, which has been undermined by a lack of funds and up-to-date technology, while output has steadily fallen and reserves have shrunk (according to official figures they will last less than nine years).
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DEVELOPMENT: Bretton Woods II: New Lifeline for Ailing Giants

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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

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Analysis by John Vandaele*

BRUSSELS, Oct 28 (IPS) – Europe, by way of the hyperactive French President Nicolas Sarkozy, demands a Bretton Woods II, that is, a major shake-up of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. This is as much a rescue operation for two organisations that have lost muscle as a call for a new financial architecture.

Up until mid-October 2008 the IMF, the world’s most important financial institution, did not play a role in the unfolding credit crisis. The G7 (the seven industrialised nations, the United States, Canada, France, Britain, Germany, Italy and Japan) had given the task to make recommendations to the Financial Stability Forum dominated by the G7 countries, effectively bypassing the Fund.

Also, the IMF proved powerless in prevention of the crisis. For years the Fund deplored the rising macro-economic imbalance between China and the U.S., which lies at the heart of the current crisis. The IMF had to do this because article 1 of its charter says one of the purposes of the IMF is ”to shorten the duration and lessen the degree of disequilibrium in the international balances of payments of members.” But the Fund simply has no real power over countries such as the U.S. or China.
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LABOUR-MALAYSIA: Recession to Hit Migrant Workers Hard

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, October 28, 2008

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Baradan Kuppusamy

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 28 (IPS) – As recession looms large on the horizon, migrant workers like 27-year-old Kumar Palanisamy from Chennai in India are the first on the chopping block.

”My employer told me I have a job up to December…after that nobody knows,” said Kumar who works as a production operator with a furniture manufacturer exporting to the United States and China.

”I don’t want to lose my job or get deported,” he said, eyes brimming with tears. ”I have a family to support and a Rs 40,000 (800 US dollars) debt to settle.”

It is a time of great unease for Malaysia’s estimated 3.5 million legal and illegal, low-paid foreign workers who face a dreadful future in an unfriendly country as a global financial meltdown begins to take effect.

It does not help that neighbouring Singapore, already in recession, is expected to retrench workers and some 300,000 Malaysians working there have suddenly become vulnerable.

The government has already formed a special task force that will find ways to accommodate retrenched Malaysians returning not only from Singapore but also Taiwan, Japan and the Middle East.

”The foreign workers are at the lowest rungs of the scale and already vulnerable. It is now a question of how soon recession will hit the country,” labour leader Siva Nathan told IPS. ”When that happens, the migrant workers will be the first to go,” he said.

Already there are signs of an official toughening of the attitudes against migrant workers, 2.2 million of whom are documented while the rest are considered ”illegal immigrants.”

Malaysia’s notorious ‘RELA’, an untrained and voluntary uniformed body, is already stepping up raids across the country to arrest undocumented workers and deport them.

Immigration authorities have issued warnings that Malaysians found harbouring or renting premises to ”illegal immigrants” would be fined or jailed, a move that is likely to unload hundreds and thousands of undocumented migrant workers now living in ”rabbit warren” housing in shanty towns.

”They would be homeless and out in the open, and easily rounded up,” said a senior RELA officer on condition of anonymity. ”We are sympathetic, but we have received our ordersàthe rule now is jobs are first for locals. We have to protect ourselves now as mass layoffs are possible with the world economy taking such a big hit.”

Malaysia’s deputy prime minister Najib Razak, who is set to take over as prime minister from Abdullah Badawi in March 2009, is already gearing the government to tighten belts and save as many jobs as possible for the locals.

Razak said while the economy is likely to grow by five percent in 2008, growth in 2009 is expected to nosedive as the economies of U.S., Europe and East Asia contract or even go into recession.

He told parliament, last week, that the government was taking steps to reduce the number of foreign workers by 400,000 a year from now until 2010.

Almost 26 percent of Malaysia’s trade is with the U.S. and a key area is electronics where order books are beginning to shrink, manufacturers said.

External demand for electrical and electronic goods in particular will weaken significantly in 2009 when Malaysia’s key export markets, the U.S. and Europe, are predicted to be in recession, finance ministry officials said.

A cutback in production by giants Sony and Samsung means a drop in electronic chip production and eventual closure of plants and loss of jobs.

”There is all round fear among the 13 million-strong labour force,” said Irene Fernandez, executive director of TENAGANITA, a rights NGO helping to protect migrant workers from exploitation. ”However, migrant workers are the most vulnerable and they live and work in a society very unfriendly to foreigners,” she told IPS.

”The laws, rules, regulations and practices and official attitudes are all unfriendly,” she said. ”If the economy woes worsen the environment can turn hostile.”

Malaysia’s trade unions, while expressing sympathy for migrant workers, are moving in fast to protect jobs for local workers and those returning home after losing their jobs overseas.

”It is unfortunate but we have to defend our jobs, our rice bowls,” said Sinnapan Arumugam, a worksite supervisor and union leader in a manufacturing factory in Bayan Lepas industrial hub in northern Penang state.

”This is the case under the lawàlocals come first,” he told IPS referring to Malaysian labour laws that state that in the event of retrenchment local workers are the last to be axed.

Annually migrant workers — mostly in the plantations, manufacturing, construction and service sectors — remit home an estimated RM18 billion (five billion US dollars) to their families across Asia, keeping them in relative comfort.

The majority of the migrant workers are from neighbouring Indonesia while the rest come from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal and most recently from Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. They are driven to migrate by poverty in their home countries.

The Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers estimated that the ”casual workers” or illegal migrants in local parlance are the most vulnerable in the impending slowdown and recession.

”There has been a huge increase in foreign casual workers in recent years and they would be the most affected,” federation president Yong Poh Kan told local newspapers.

Labour experts and rights activists say it is important for the authorities to plan how to handle the crisis in an intelligent and humanitarian manner to ensure that foreign workers are not just bundled into ships and deported.

”Without the foreign labour we would not have been able to develop so rapidly,” said Fernandez. ”We cannot just use and discard them as we like.”

”There is an urgent need to develop a comprehensive policy that is respectful and humanitarian with payment of adequate retrenchment and other benefits,” she added.

ECONOMY: Spain Fights Exclusion from Crisis Summit

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Monday, October 27, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

José Antonio Gurriarán

MADRID, Oct 27 (IPS) – The Spanish government is taking strong diplomatic actions, calling on its fellow members of the European Union, Latin American leaders, Asian nations and even the United States presidential candidates, with the aim of not being left out of the financial anti-crisis summit scheduled for Nov. 15 in Washington.

Spain was not included in U.S. President George W. Bush’s invitation to the governments of the world’s leading economies and the larger emerging countries from the developing South — a decision seen by Spain as a veto against the socialist government of José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero.

Although no one in the White House admits or has even implied it, the Zapatero administration as well as the rightwing opposition and the vast majority of Spain’s citizens are convinced that this is Bush’s way of retaliating against Zapatero’s decision to withdraw the country’s troops from the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq, as soon as the socialist prime minister took office in 2004.
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EU courts Asia, banks on China

Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Monday, October 27, 2008

© Copyright 2008 Susenjit Guha. All rights reserved.

By Susenjit Guha

European Commission President Jose Barroso, who is also a former prime minister of Portugal, urged China, India and Japan to “be on board” at the Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing over the weekend. “It’s very simple: we sink together or we swim together,” he said. Apparently exasperated at Europe’s traditional ties with the United States, he seemed eager for a new alliance. The need for a paradigm shift has come, to tackle the worst financial crisis to hit the globe in 70 years.

At the meeting of 40 leaders in Beijing, climate change and food security concerns were overshadowed by news of a continuing bloodbath of global stocks. Barosso urged countries to resist calls for economic nationalism and protectionism that would only hurt prospects for a recovery, and underlined the need to regulate the world’s markets.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted more transparent markets, stricter supervision and closer international cooperation. French President Nicolas Sarkozy wanted more radical change, seeking to rewrite the rulebook for international capitalism at next month’s meeting of world leaders in Washington. He asked for assistance from Asian governments.

The International Monetary Fund failed to provide advance warning of the impending implosion in the financial markets, and has been slow at responding to requests from affected nations.

Laissez-faire has proved to be grossly unfair, as the Wall Street meltdown is not only melting the tar on Main Street, freeways and country roads in the United States, but has clogged narrow streets and roundabouts in teeming Asia as well.

And why is the European Union worried? European capitals are in the grip of Obamania, hoping for a real change in the United States – and the way it is perceived around the world – with the presumed election of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama next month. But Obamania does not guarantee European support for more troops for NATO engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq. Displeasure in Europe over U.S. unilateralism has been ratcheted up by the conduct of reckless financial institutions.

Positioned between the United States and the neighboring landmass of Asia, Europe needs to build bridges with the continent of the 21st century, Asia. As Barosso stressed at the ASEM meeting in Beijing, “We represent three-fifths of the world’s population and produce half of global GDP. Our combined action can and should make a real difference.”

Who other than China – even though Japan and India, the new kid on the block, were present – should take the lead in finding a solution to this crisis? With nearly US$2 trillion in currency reserves – more than Canada’s GDP – China is best positioned to step in. As Kim Eun Mee, professor of international studies at Ewha Women’s University in Seoul, South Korea, stressed, “Other ASEM nations have been calling for China to take a more leading role … to mediate a consensus among ASEM nations.”

Ahead of the Washington talks on Nov.15, China is being asked to ease its restrictions on banking, to prop up the strong yuan and to build a US$350 billion reserve firewall to protect the region’s currencies. Thailand wants this, and Citigroup Vice-President William Rhodes reiterated in the Financial Times that China was indispensable in solving this crisis.

But China’s leaders are wary of assuming so much responsibility at this stage of their country’s development, stressing that their first priority is raising the living standards of their own people.

Before the ASEM began, China, Japan and South Korea, along with 10 Southeast Asian nations, pledged a US$80 billion chest to stave off currency speculators, but no date was set for the launch of this fund.

The toxic sub-prime loan disaster has not hit China directly, but for the first time in five years growth has fallen to 9 percent as inflation creeps up. Exports, pivotal to China’s economic surge, will be affected as the U.S. and European economies continue to reel.

World leaders did their best to soften China up and bring Asia on board in an effort to introduce financial reforms at the Washington summit that would tackle the root causes of the crisis.

But judging by a commentary in the official newspaper, the People’s Daily, by Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai’s Tongji University, not everyone in China was impressed. Shi stopped

short of explaining how a non-convertible yuan could help, but said the euro, British pound, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan should be the currencies used for trade between the European Union and Asia. He demanded a boycott of the U.S. dollar, lambasting the United States for protecting its own interests while other countries’ wealth drained away.

Awarding the Sakharov Prize for the defense of human rights to jailed Chinese dissident Hu Jia one day before the Beijing summit was meant to remind the Asian dragon that Europe will continue to play the rights card, even if it has to court the dragon’s wealth.

Asia does not have even an EU-style semblance of solidarity, which may mean the various Asian governments will adopt different views on tackling the crisis, rather than uniting behind a European initiative. Of course, China will have its own way of doing business, taking the best and the worst of all worlds.

Time will tell if the overtures of a humane capitalistic Europe will be able to smother China, which cannot escape this financial crisis in the long run.

About the Author:

Susenjit Guha is a writer and journalist based in Kolkata, India. He contributes a weekly commentary and analysis for UPI Asia and has written on Indian and global political issues for such online publications as Online Opinion (Australia) and Foreign Policy in Focus (USA) and M.J Akbar (India).

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