DRC: The Cost of War

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS

Stephanie Kale

KIGALI, Nov 8 (IPS) – War is expensive. The costs include not only the millions of dollars spent on military equipment and maintaining an army, but the financial and psychological toll it takes on the everyday lives of people caught in the crossfire.

When fighting takes place where civilians live, as it is in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo, farming, housing, health care, businesses and education are all interrupted in armed conflict, and the long-term effects in the North Kivu region have been devastating.

Ten year-old Immacule arrived at Kibati refugee camp 12 kilometres north of Goma on Oct. 27 after her family fled their village fearing attacks by Tutsi-led rebels.

She said she misses going to school. ”I want the government to find peace for us so that I can return home and go back to school.”

Since fighting resumed in August between the rebel National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP) and the Congolese army, 250,000 people have been displaced in the North Kivu Region.
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CHINESE ECONOMY MONITOR—NOTE No.3

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – Chennai Center for China Studies
www.c3sindia.org

B.RAMAN

( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been bringing out a periodic “Chinese Economy Monitor” based on open information. This is the third in the series—B. Raman)

CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY, THE NEED OF THE HOUR, SAYS WEN

Summing up the discussions at the Asia-Europe Meeting Summit held in Beijing, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao told the media on October 24, 2008, as follows: “We will discuss with world leaders on measures to cope with the financial crisis in a pragmatic and cooperative manner.I think what we should do to cope with the crisis can be summarized as confidence, cooperation and responsibility.We are very glad to see that many countries have taken measures that have initially proved effective. But this is not enough given the current situation, and more needs to be done.The stability of financial market is key to stabilizing the whole economy. The first important message that the two-day summit has conveyed is firm confidence, and I think confidence is the source of power to overcome difficulties.”

—- Source Xinhua
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ECONOMY-BRAZIL: Crisis Delays Threat of ‘Venezuelan Disease’

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

By Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Nov 4 (IPS) – The global financial crisis has corrected the extreme overvaluation of Brazil’s local currency, caused by the policies of its Central Bank, thus temporarily chasing away fears of “Dutch disease”, which in the developing world could well be called “Venezuelan disease”.

The change of name for this particular “economic ailment” in the countries of the developing South is based on the work of the late Celso Furtado (1920-2004), who in 1957 identified the phenomenon of “underdevelopment with abundant foreign exchange” in Venezuela, a unique case in Latin America at a time when the region’s main complaint was the lack of capital for industrial development.

The study by the economist who was the top authority on Brazilian political economy, carried out for the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), was just now published by the International Celso Furtado Centre for Development Policies, as part of the first volume of a series based on his personal archives, that includes another essay on Venezuela, written in 1974, and commentaries from other experts.

Furtado’s analysis of the “peculiarities” of the Venezuelan economy identified problems that would only be labeled “Dutch disease” two decades later, said Carlos Aguiar de Medeiros, a professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, who commented on the two studies by the late economist.
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VIETNAM: Prosperity Tough on Trash Collectors

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Monday, November 03, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Helen Clark

HANOI, Nov 3 (IPS) – As the expendable income of households in Hanoi increases, so does the amount of refuse generated. This is taking a toll on the city’s predominantly female force of garbage collectors, as well as the environment.

A green truck idles on a street beside one of Hanoi’s largest beer halls, Hoa Vien, popular with the capital’s movers and shakers. In the twilight, women in khaki overalls and blue helmets push heavy trolleys, piled high with refuse, into a line behind it.

”I don’t get days off,” Tram, 33, tells IPS. ”Any celebration, I work more because there’s more garbage to collect. It’s always busy; I don’t even get Tet off.” Tet is Lunar New Year and the most important holiday in the Vietnamese calendar.

Tram has been collecting the city’s garbage for 14 years, and says things have become harder in recent years. There is far more to pick up, whilst wages have remained the same — between 1.5 million VND — 1.9 million VND (90 – 115 US dollars) each month.
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PERU: Free Trade Opens Environmental Window

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Saturday, November 01, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Milagros Salazar* – Tierramérica

LIMA, Nov 1 (IPS) – Legislative decree 1090, which modifies Peru’s forest policy, is worrying U.S. trade authorities because it contravenes environmental clauses of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that is to enter force between the two countries in January 2009.

The decree, which in June amended the Forestry and Wildlife Act, leaves 45 million hectares — or 60 percent of Peru’s jungles — out of the Forestry Heritage protection system — a step that runs counter to the FTA forestry annex.

That was one of the 10 observations made by the Office of the U.S Trade Representative, Susan Schwab, in a meeting with delegates of the Peruvian government earlier this month in Washington, according to Sandro Chávez, president of the non-governmental Ecological Forum (Foro Ecológico).
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ECONOMY-MAURITIUS: Textile Manufacturing Goes Green and Clean

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Saturday, November 01, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Nasseem Ackbarally

PORT LOUIS, Nov 1 (IPS) – ‘‘The cost of production is high in Mauritius as we are far away from our main markets. Our island is so small that at times our clients do forget us. We no longer benefit from any trade preferences. We don’t have any natural resources but we have plenty of sunshine and wind and we have decided to use these resources.”

These are the thoughts that Kendall Tang, director of Richfield Tang Knits Ltd, a factory at La Tour Koenig south of the capital, shared with European buyers recently.

They visited his factory before attending the International Textile Manufacturers Federation’s (ITMF) conference on the theme of a greener and a more sustainable textile industry last month.

Richfield Tang Knits Ltd, or RT Knits as it is known, has devised a new strategy based on green production to reduce its costs of production and to improve its work environment. The company is betting on the availability of the sunshine and the stable direction of the wind 10 out of 12 months yearly.
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HAITI: Activists Urge World Bank to Erase Crippling Debt

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Friday, October 31, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Nergui Manalsuren

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 31 (IPS) – On a recent visit to the hurricane-ravaged island of Haiti, World Bank President Robert Zoellick declared that 500 million dollars of Haiti’s 1.7-billion-dollar foreign debt had been cancelled, and the rest would be soon be written off as well.

However, Haitian and international civil society groups say that his comments were misleading. None of the debt has actually been forgiven yet, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and bank just this month delayed Haiti’s entrance into the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative (HIPC) — a condition for debt relief — by six months.

Dan Beeton, an analyst at the Washington-based Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), said that he hopes that Haiti’s debt cancellation will be expedited, and that the World Bank and IMF, along with creditors France and the U.S., will cancel the debt without requiring Haiti to ”jump through more hoops”.

”However,” he said, ”the institution that has really power to make this happen is the U.S. Treasury Department.”
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FINANCE: Revolt Against ”Elite Clubs” Grows at U.N.

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Thursday, October 30, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Wolfgang Kerler

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 30 (IPS) – U.N. member states and economists challenged the neo-liberal policies of market deregulation that have long been promoted by powerful global financial institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), and called Thursday for a new, more inclusive global financial architecture.

Nobel Prize-winning U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz stressed that ”the current economic crisis should provide an opportunity to reassess global economic arrangements and prevalent economic doctrines”, as he spoke at a panel on the ongoing global financial crisis, held by the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday.

Stiglitz is supposed to head a new U.N. task force of experts to undertake a review of the international financial system — including its major institutions — and to make proposals for how a more stable global economic order could be achieved. Other members of the task force are to be announced in the near future.
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SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Financial Meltdown Prompts Return to Agriculture

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Thursday, October 30, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Oct 30 (IPS) – As South-east Asia feels the heal of the global financial meltdown leaders are turning to the informal sector, particularly agriculture, as a potential provider of employment.

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi echoed such a sentiment this week, resurrecting a view that had emerged after a financial crisis swept through this region in 1997. The Malaysian agriculture sector will help the country to ‘’cushion the impact of the economic downturn,” he said during an encounter with farmers, according to local press reports.

The agriculture sector accounts for about 60 percent of South-east Asia’s informal sector, which is estimated to have 161 million workers, states a new study on labour trends released by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

‘’Agriculture still accounts for 44.5 percent of (the region’s) total employment, albeit with considerable variations across countries, ranging from less than one percent in Singapore to over 80 percent in Laos,” the ILO study said.

The past decade has also seen South-east Asian cities, which have expanded due to rapid urbanisation and migration from rural areas, taking on a greater role as a venue for the informal labour pool, adds the ILO. Food vendors along the streets are typical of this trend. A majority of them are women, giving ‘’vulnerable” work a ‘’feminine face”.

The number of workers in the informal sector are set to increase as jobs in the region’s formal economic sector, ranging from industries to services, become limited, says Gyorgy Sziraczki, senior economist at the ILO’s Asia-Pacific regional office in Bangkok. ‘’Employers will either delay hiring or freeze new recruitment and the wage growth will slow down, with pay increases lesser than in past years.”

‘’There will be 850,000 fewer jobs created in 2008 than in 2007. And by 2009, that number could go up to 1.27 million fewer jobs in the region,” he revealed in an interview. ‘’The number of unemployed in the region may rise to 18.5 million in 2009 as against the 16.5 million unemployed people in 2007.”

Such dismal estimates are a contrast to the robust economic growth the region experienced till the onset of the spike in oil and food prices early this year and soaring inflation in some countries in the 10-member regional bloc, the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN). The region’s growth of 6.4 percent in 2007, up from six percent the previous year, ‘’was the highest in over a decade,” states the ILO in its ‘Labour and Social Trends in ASEAN 2008′.

‘’The region’s strong economic performance in 2007 had a positive impact on its labour markets,” adds the 116-page report. ‘’Employment in ASEAN member countries increased from 260.6 million in 2006 to 268.5 million in 2007 — an increase of three percent, or 7.9 million additional jobs.”

The impact from the financial crash will be felt in the export sector in countries like the Philippines, which depends on the Japanese and U.S. markets.

This week, Thailand’s labour ministry revealed that 120 companies had shut down from January till October in industries dealing in food, garments and furniture.

Burma’s garment sector, which exports to Japan and the European Union, may also experience factory closures and workers being laid off, according to the military-ruled country’s garment manufacturers association.

But unlike a decade ago, governments appear more prepared to deal with layoffs and lack of work in the formal economy, says Raj Kumar, at the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), a regional U.N. body based in Bangkok. ‘’The 1997 financial crisis caught governments by surprise and there was little preparation to help people affected by the economies that went into negative growth.”

‘’They have learnt some of the lessons since then and are already talking about it,” he told IPS. ‘’The current talk about the role the agriculture sector will have to play to absorb people from the formal economy was never discussed before the ’97 crash.”

Yet such expectations for the informal sector — particularly agriculture — to help people from cities to return back to their homes in rural areas and serve as a safety net are not limitless. More so since the rural heartland of many South-east Asian countries have been ignored in the past 10 years, with limited amounts of investment pouring in from national budgets to improve infrastructure and agriculture outputs.

‘’There has been a serious neglect of the agriculture sector in the past decade. The investments have gone down,” says Diderik de Vleeschauwer, spokesman for the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) Asia-Pacific office. ‘’Those areas are not what they used to be in ‘97.”

The land area available for agriculture has also decreased, he told IPS. ‘’This is because of new land-use patterns, land being sold for non-agriculture purposes such as hotels and golf courses and the drastic impact of climate change.”

In fact in the Philippines, a country expected to face the brunt of the economic downturn, there is little hope for people who migrated to the cities from the provinces in search of work to go back home.

‘’The agriculture sector in the Philippines is at a very low point because the government’s investment in agriculture is not a priority,” says Jillian Roque, research and advocacy officer at Public Services Labour Independent Confederation, a Manila-based national union of government workers.

‘’The only option available for the Filipinos, who end up in the informal sector is to search for jobs abroad,” she said in a telephone interview about a country that already has 10 percent of its population as overseas migrant workers. ‘’There will be an increase in people wanting to leave the country even if there is a threat of abuse and exploitation. The crisis is creating a sense of desperation.”

FINANCE: NGOs Call for Radical Reforms as IMF Offers New Loans

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Oct 29 (IPS) – Two weeks before U.S. President George W. Bush hosts an economic summit to address the six-week-old financial crisis that has wreaked havoc on the world’s capital and stock markets, a coalition of nearly 600 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) from 88 countries is calling for a ”fundamental and far-reaching transformation on the international financial and economic system.”

In a statement released Wednesday, the groups demanded that the upcoming Group of 20 meeting Nov. 15 here to the way for a much broader and more inclusive reform effort in which all of the world’s governments and international civil society should participate.

”It is of course imperative to agree on immediate measures to address the crisis, and we emphasise that priority must be given to responses to the impacts on ordinary employees and workers, low-income households, pensioners and other extremely vulnerable sectors,” according to the statement that was signed by Friends of the Earth, ActionAid, and Social Watch, among other international groups.

”But we are deeply concerned that the proposed meetings will be carried out in a rushed and non-inclusive manner, and, as a result, not address the comprehensive range of changes needed, nor fairly allocate their burden,” it said.

The groups, which also included Civicus, the European Network on Debt and Development (EURODAD), and Jubilee, decried what they called a ”double standard” by which wealthy western governments, in dealing with the crisis, were currently engaged in the kind of government intervention that western-dominated institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had forbidden their poor-country borrowers.

”The double standard is not only unacceptable, but it also signals the demise of free-market fundamentalism,” the statement said. ”The international financial system, its architecture and its institutions must be completely rethought.”

The statement comes on the eve of the first meeting of a U.N. task force set up by Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and chaired by Economics Nobel Laureate and former World Bank Chief Economist Joseph Stiglitz to make recommendations about how to cope with the ongoing crisis.

It also comes as the IMF announced the creation of the a new lending arm, the Short-Term Liquidity Facility (SLF), that will have the authority to lend up to five times a borrowing country’s quota to help it overcome temporary liquidity problems in global capital markets.

”Exceptional times call for an exceptional response,” said the IMF’s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn. ”The Fund is responding quickly and flexibly to requests for financing. We are offering some countries substantial resources on an expedited basis, with conditions based only on measures absolutely necessary to get past the crisis and to restore a viable external position.”

Creation of the SLF, which is similar to the Contingent Credit Line facility created by the IMF during the Asian crisis of 1997-98, has been considered urgent over the last couple of weeks as it became clear that the credit crisis that began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment firm last month was rapidly spreading to emerging markets and poor countries whose economies are dependent on commodity exports.

Still, critics have warned that, given the growing line of countries, starting with Iceland, Ukraine, and Hungary and Pakistan, in desperate need of the estimated 250 billion dollars the IMF has available, the SLF may not be sufficient to keep up with demand.

Thus, Strauss-Kahn made a point of welcoming Wednesday’s announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the central banks of Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Singapore to set up swap lines of up to 30 billion dollars to boost liquidity in emerging markets. Similar lines have already been set up between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank and with the central banks of the Australia and New Zealand.

The Nov. 15 G-20 summit at the National Building Museum will include the leaders of the major industrialised countries and emerging markets, such as China, India, Brazil, and Mexico. It has been billed by some European leaders, notably British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, as a ”new Bretton Woods”, a reference to the New Hampshire resort where in 1944 U.S. and British finance officials laid the groundwork for the post-World War II western-dominated economic order overseen by the IMF and the World Bank.

Bush, who will be a lame duck when the summit convenes, is expected to oppose any moves that could result in big changes in the way those two agencies are run, particularly given the disproportionate voting power Washington — including the ability to veto any major policy changes — enjoys on their governing boards. The Europeans, who also exercise disproportionate power on the boards, appear to be more favourably inclined toward reform.

”There is no doubt that these institutions need reform when Belgium has the same amount of votes as China,” noted Louis Belanger of Oxfam International.

It has been through the combined voting power of the U.S. and other western industrialised powers that the Bank and the IMF have imposed the so-called ”Washington Consensus” — policies that require borrowing countries to implement neo-liberal, ”market-friendly” policies and reduce the role of government in their economies — over the last 30 years.

Grassroots and many international NGOs have long claimed that these policies have mainly benefited western-based multi-national corporations, often to the detriment of the poorest and most vulnerable populations in borrowing countries whose governments were forced to cut their budgets and adopt austerity measures recommended by the Bank and the IMF.

To them, the response to current crisis in both North America and Europe demonstrates the bankruptcy of both the ”Washington Consensus” and the agencies that enforced it.

”To stave off regional and global recessions and restore stability and confidence in the market, northern governments are pursuing a massive and unprecedented program of government intervention, nationalising banks, injecting massive subsidies into ailing institutions and re-regulating their financial sectors,” they said.

These measures stand ”in direct contrast to the austere neo-liberal policies pressed on developing countries by the World Bank, the IMF, and developed countries for the past thirty years.”

”These policies have failed spectacularly,” said Vitalis Meja, coordinator for the African Forum & Network on Debt and Development (Afrodad). ”And now, the response is to bring 20 governments to Washington for a new ‘Washington Consensus’.”

Writing in the Financial Times Wednesday, financier and philanthropist George Soros noted that, ”The so-called Washington consensus imposed strict market discipline on other countries but the U.S. was exempt from it.”

In the NGOs’ view, any attempted reform of the current system should best be pursued under auspices of the United Nations where each country has a vote.

”Since the impacts are likely to be the greatest on the poorest people, and in emerging economies and developing countries,” noted Lidy Nacpil of Jubilee South — Asia/Pacific Movement on Debt and Development, ”shouldn’t all countries — governments and peoples — have a say, not just those responsible for this crisis?”

”Any attempt by the most powerful countries to stitch up a deal with no public consultation and no involvement of the majority of the world’s countries through an inclusive process will only further undermine public trust and confidence,” added Roberto Bissio of Social Watch.