POLITICS-US: Yes, He Could Obama Handily Takes White House

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (IPS) – In a historic victory, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama has been elected the 44th president of the United States.

Obama, the first African American to be elected to the nation’s highest office, was declared the winner by all of the country’s major media networks as the polling on the West Coast of the U.S. closed Tuesday night, even as millions of votes remained to be counted throughout the country.

”A new dawn of American leadership is at hand,” Obama told a cheering crowd of about 125,000 people gathered in Chicago’s Grant Park, after the formal concession of rival John McCain.

”You understand the enormity of the challenges we face — two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century,” he said. ”The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America — I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you — we as a people will get there.”
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POLITICS-US – Racism Won’t Keep Arab Americans From Polls

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Habib Battah

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (IPS) – Arab Americans are expected to vote in large numbers Tuesday, despite concerns over voter intimidation and weak outreach from the presidential candidates, representatives of major community organisations say.
The Arab American Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC) has set up a voter protection unit staffed by lawyers to help dispel rumours that may have prevented some from going to the polls in the past.

“As always, there will be voter intimidation,” predicted Abed Ayoub, one of five attorneys attached to the unit. Enthusiasm for the election is higher than it was in 2004, he contended, pointing to a recent ADC-sponsored event in Michigan that saw at least 500 Arab Americans register in just two days.

At the same time, the ADC has received hundreds of calls over recent months from Arab Americans who mistakenly believed they may have been ineligible to vote.

“One rumour was that if you are in foreclosure, you can’t vote,” Ayoub said. Another is the misconception that those who couldn’t read or write in English — often a problem for elderly Arab Americans — would not be allowed to use translators.

But the greatest fear is of an incident like the one at the 1999 municipal election in Hamtramck, Michigan, where dozens of dark-skinned Arab Americans were asked to take a citizenship oath before voting. The move caused many to avoid the polls for fear of embarrassment.

Even in more recent elections, a number of complaints were made to ADC, though never made public, the lawyer said. “This year we want to attack the problem before it happens,” Ayoub said.

Votes of the estimated 3.5 million Arab Americans could be pivotal, especially in swing states. And though a September poll by the Arab American Institute showed that Sen. Barack Obama was far more popular — with a 54 percent to 33 percent lead over Sen. John McCain — it also found that 20 percent of Arab Americans are not enrolled in any political party. And Arab organisations say both presidential campaigns have largely failed to recognise Arab Americans as an important voting bloc.

“Neither party has done a lot of outreach to the community,” said Lelia Al-Qatami, ADC’s communications and cultural affairs director. “Ethnic outreach is very common, but we haven’t seen any with regards to the Arab community.”

The Obama campaign briefly had a liaison to the Arab American community, she acknowledged. But the liaison, Mazen Asbahi, resigned 10 days after his appointment in early August, after the Wall Street Journal ran a story alleging that he may have had ties to a fundamentalist imam. The Arab American Institute called the Journal’s claim “vague and specious.” But the incident was just one of many that upset Arab Americans.

Many Arab Americans also felt let down by the Obama campaign this summer when two Muslim women wearing headscarves were barred from appearing seated behind the senator in a television shot at Detroit rally. And there’s been disappointment over McCain’s recent response to supporters who called Obama “an Arab”. By defending Obama as “a decent family man”, McCain drew fire from Arab American Institute director James Zogby, who issued a statement noting that Arab Americans were “also decent men and women”.

“We would have liked to have better contact from both sides [of the presidential race],” said Christina Zola, AAI communications director. “The racism on behalf of staff or supporters should have been dealt with better.”

A feeling of alienation from the two campaigns was also voiced by the Arab American Political Action Committee, which decided not to endorse either presidential candidate. And neither campaign requested an endorsement, the AAPAC said.

“Those candidates who are not willing to make the effort to request our support and pursue it respectfully are not worthy of our vote, regardless of who they are,” the AAPAC said in its Oct. 11 statement.

Both Obama and McCain have also been criticised by Ralph Nader, an Arab American of Lebanese descent and the Green Party presidential candidate. Nader challenged both McCain and Obama to visit a Muslim place of worship before Election Day, “like they [visited] churches and synagogues,” according to a statement on Nader’s campaign website.

Still, hundreds of Arab Americans are campaigning for Obama or McCain, the ADC said, while the AAI has recruited several hundred volunteers to help register Arab voters, as part of the Yalla Vote Campaign. (Yalla means “come on/let’s go” in Arabic.)

“We need to be involved in this election,” said Mohammad Al Filali, outreach director for the Islamic Center of Passaic County, New Jersey, home to one of the greatest concentrations of Arab Americans. “We cannot allow our voices to be muzzled.”

At least 100 Arab Americans registered to vote in the space of a few hours during an event to celebrate the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in early October, Al Filali said. He said the community was energised by the election, despite the perception that the word Arab has “all of a sudden become a curse” in campaign rhetoric.

Samir Issa, a software engineer who took part in the event, said he was still supporting Obama, the abrupt departure of the candidate’s Arab American liaison notwithstanding. “I lost some trust in him [Obama], but not all, because the other choice is even worse,” said Issa, 36. “He’s just trying to win, whatever the cost.”

Community involvement is another problem. The campaigns “pay closer attention to people with money,” Al Filali said. “We are new to the game of politics. We have to make ourselves known.”

POLITICS-US: Vote-Flipping Reported on E-Voting Machines

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

By Matthew Cardinale

CHARLESTON, West Virginia, Nov 3 (IPS) – Several U.S. citizens reported watching their votes flip on electronic voting machines in different states during the early voting period, highlighting the continued vulnerability of “e-voting” systems, which about 50 million U.S. citizens will use on Tuesday, despite problems since as early as 2004.

Most of the voters with complaints so far have said they saw their votes flipped from the Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, to Republican Sen. John McCain, although at least three voters in Tennessee reported the reverse.

Vote-flipping has been reported so far in at least four states — Colorado, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia — out of the 31 states where early voting has taken place.

However, the reports of vote-flipping are just of the tip of the iceberg, according to Emily Levy of Velvet Revolution, a voter rights group.
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POLITICS-US: Can Naturalised Citizens Tip the Balance?

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

By Nuzhat Naoreen

The Korean-American civic group YKASEC says it has registered more than 26,000 people to vote since 2004.

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (IPS) – Juan Carlos Jimenez had already lived legally in the United States for nearly 40 years when he became a citizen in October, at 44. He joined hundreds of other immigrants at a New York courthouse to take his oath.

“It’s the only reason I became a citizen — to vote in this election,” said Jimenez, who was born in Colombia.

The Iraq war and the foundering economy made him want to vote for the first time.

“There’s just too much at stake now,” he said.

Issues like the war, the economy, and failed immigration reform are expected to drive many first-time immigrant voters like Jimenez to the polls this year, in greater numbers than before.
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POLITICS-US: Massive Turnout Expected to Tip Vote for Obama

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net / IPS
Tuesday, November 04, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

By Jim Lobe

John McCain (left) and Barack Obama (right) have together spent more than a billion dollars on their campaigns – about 8 dollars per vote.

WASHINGTON, Nov 3 (IPS) – On the eve of Tuesday’s elections, Sen. Barack Obama and his fellow Democratic candidates appear to be on the verge of a historic victory, according to political experts attached to both major parties and the latest polling.

The latest national polling shows Obama leads by between six and 12 percentage points, with an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey conducted Sunday giving him a 51-43 percent advantage.

While the race for the White House has tightened slightly in the last several days, Republican Sen. John McCain will have to win virtually all of the remaining half-dozen “swing states” — those which are still considered too close to call — plus carry several more states that are currently considered leaning strongly toward Obama in order to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in the all-important Electoral College.
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POLITICS-US: Two, Three, Many Grand Bargains?

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Saturday, November 01, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Analysis by Jim Lobe*

WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (IPS) – As the United States waded ever deeper into the Indochinese quagmire in the early 1960s, the Argentine revolutionary Che Guevara called for ”two, three, many Vietnams” to bog down the superpower in unwinnable Third World conflicts that would drain its treasury and overstretch its military.

While today’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are not quite as costly — at least as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) — as then, Guevara’s vision, echoed nearly 40 years later by Osama bin Laden, of an increasingly stressed hyperpower which now confronts its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression must weigh heavily on whichever candidate moves into the White House Jan. 20.

Indeed, even as both Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama talk about the urgency of sending thousands more troops to Afghanistan to cope with the growing Taliban threat — potentially magnified manifold by the ongoing insurgency across the border in the tribal territories of nuclear-armed Pakistan — the transition set to begin next Tuesday next Tuesday will offer the president-elect a critical window to contemplate possible exit strategies not only in southwest Asia, but westward to the Mediterranean, as well.

A series of interlocking ”grand bargains” backed by the relevant regional players as well as major global powers — aimed at pacifying Afghanistan; integrating Iran into a new regional security structure; promoting reconciliation in Iraq; and launching a credible process to negotiate a comprehensive peace between Israel and the Arab world — must offer a very tempting, if extremely challenging, prospect to any new resident at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
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US PREDATOR STRIKES IN FATA STEPPED UP

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR–PAPER NO.462

B.RAMAN

“The reported US assurances to respect Pakistani sovereignty in its territory did not apply to air strikes, which could continue as before. In fact, the Pakistan Army itself had agreed to these air strikes when Musharraf was the President and the COAS. Kayani was a party to that decision and he could not now object to such air strikes unless the Army wanted the permission for air strikes accorded by Musharraf to be withdrawn. However, Musharraf had consistently refused to agree to unilateral ground strikes by the US special forces. The present Government cannot give the impression that it had gone even further than Musharraf in its co-operation with the US forces in their operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban .”—- from my article of September 20,2008, titled “US STRIKES IN FATA: Change In Continuity” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2851.html

——————————————————–

The “New York Times” reported on its web site on October 26,2008, as follows: The United States is refraining from using its special forces on the Pakistani territory following a raid nearly two months ago that resulted in civilian casualties and vehement protests from Islamabad. Following the attack, National Security Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani made an unannounced visit to Washington and expressed his country’s anger in person to top White House officials, including National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley.But while the ground raids have stopped, attacks by remotely-piloted Predator aircraft, which are operated by the Central Intelligence Agency, have increased sharply in the past three months.There were at least 18 Predator strikes since the beginning of August, some deep inside the tribal areas, as compared with the five strikes during the first seven months of 2008.
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POLITICS: U.S. Cutoff Threat Unlikely to Save Iraq Troop Pact

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Analysis by Gareth Porter*

WASHINGTON, Oct 29 (IPS) – The threat by the George W. Bush administration last week to withdraw all economic and military support from the Iraqi government if it does not accept the U.S.-Iraq status of forces agreement has raised the stakes in the political-diplomatic struggle over the issue.

However, most Iraqi politicians are now so averse to any formal legitimisation of the U.S. military presence — and particularly of extraterritorial legal rights over U.S. troops in the country — that even that threat is unlikely to save the pact.

For most Iraqis the agreement is all too reminiscent of the unequal security agreement that gave military rights to British imperialism in Iraq from 1930 to 1958. The symbolism of foreign domination inherent in that historical parallel makes it risky for political party leaders and members of parliament to be seen as going along with any agreement that provides special privileges to the United States.

In a move reflecting a new sense of desperation that has overtaken U.S. officials, Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, warned Iraqi officials that they would lose a total of 16 billion dollars in assistance for the economy and Iraqi security forces unless the agreement is approved by parliament, according to a story by McClatchy newspapers reporter Leil Fadel Sunday.
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POLITICS-US: Analysts Question Timing of Syria Raid

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Tuesday, October 28, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Ali Gharib

WASHINGTON, Oct 28 (IPS) – A cross-border raid into Syria by U.S. forces in Iraq, and a subsequent stonewalling by U.S. officials unwilling to divulge details, has led to rampant speculation among U.S. analysts about the origins and meaning of the attack.

”So the question is: Why?” wrote geo-strategic analyst and journalist Helena Cobban on her blog, wondering if the raid could have been pulled off without explicit permission from the highest levels of the President George W. Bush administration.

”So why now at the end of the Bush administration, with Washington trying to play nice with Damascus and tensions easing throughout the region, would U.S. forces stage such a gambit?” echoed Borzou Daragahi on the Babylon and Beyond blog at the Los Angeles Times website.
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US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: WAITING FOR OBL

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO 461

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net
Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

It is just one week before the US Presidential elections. We all know all that we want to know about the two candidates Senators John McCain of the Republican Party and Senator Barrack Obama of the Democratic Party. We also know what the American people think of them and their ideas for the future through the public opinion polls which, without an exception, predict voter approval for Obama and his ideas—-whether relating to the economy, the so-called war against terrorism or Iran’s nuclear programme.

2.But there is still a missing gap in our knowledge—what Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda think of the two candidates and their proposed policies. On the eve of the Presidential elections of 2004 (on October29,2004), Osama entered the pre-poll scene in the US with a video message to the American people, which poured scorn over American claims regarding the war. Commenting on his message, I wrote:
“As the date of the polls approached, there was feverish speculation as to whether Bush, helped by President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, would produce OBL before the American people like a magician producing a rabbit out of his hat and thereby make Kerry look silly and win a thumping victory. Instead of Bush producing OBL and embarrassing Kerry, it is OBL’s spin-masters who have produced him before the voters, making Bush, Kerry and everybody else in the US look silly and confused.” (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers12/paper1155.html)

3. Is OBL planning a similar entry into the poll scene before the Americans vote? It will be out of keeping with him if he does not. Watch out during the days to come. Will he pour scorn over McCain and Bush just as Al Qaeda web sites are already doing? What will he say about the statements of Obama about his determination to hunt for OBL, even if he has to send the US troops into Pakistani territory to catch him—provided he has precise intelligence? Will he talk of what the jihadis in Pakistan and Afghanistan describe as the newly opened third front in the war—- in the Wall Street?

4. Or will the expected message fail to materialise? If it fails to come, that will be more significant than his message if it does come. Failure to materialise would mean that there is something wrong somewhere in the Pashtun belt from where OBL is stated to be operating. The US and the Asif Ali Zardari Government in Pakistan—-while pretending to criticise in open each other’s counter-terrorism policies—- have been secretly co-operating and co-ordinating their operations even more closely than was the case under Pervez Musharraf—- the US from the air through repeated air strikes by pilotless drones in the two Waziristans and through aerial surveillance and the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps on the ground in the Bajaur Agency and the Swat Valley.

5. It is apparent that the stepped up operations both by the Americans and the Pakistanis are not unrelated to the Presidential polls. If the Americans can get a high-value target such as OBL or his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri before the polls, it will not only redound to the credit of Bush before he leaves office, but could also benefit McCain, who is desperately trying to avert a seeming rout in the elections.

6. Al Qaeda’s foreign volunteers are on the run from village to village, from mosque to mosque and from madrasa to madrasa to protect themselves from the air strikes of the US and Pakistan. The war against terrorism has seen intense air strikes in Afghan territory from the beginning. Since Zardari’s meeting with Bush in New York in September, it has been seeing an intense wave of air strikes in Pakistani territory. US planes have been flying across Pakistani air space over the tribal belt as if they are flying in US air space without worrying about the proforma criticism from Pakistani leaders and officials and repeatedly attacking suspected Al Qaeda hide-outs. They have killed many, but not the ones that matter.

7. What stands between the US and OBL or Zawahiri is just luck and a little bit of advance intelligence. Both have eluded the US so far. For air strikes, the US has to be lucky only once. OBL and Zawahiri have to be lucky every time.

8. OBL must be constantly moving to deny that one stroke of luck to the US. How serious is the ground position for him? One will get an answer either way—whether his pre-poll message materialises or does not. (28-10-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )