The new new deal

Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Originally Published on openDemocracy.net. Read the article in its original form.

In the wake of the Wall Street meltdown, the United States government plans to dedicate at least $700 billion to underwriting the country’s financial system. The money should instead be used to rebuild the real economy and break the boom-bust cycle, says Saskia Sassen.

POLITICS-INDIA: Polls Uncertain With Jammu Divided from Kashmir

Global Geopolitics Net Sites / IPS
Sunday, September 21, 2008

All rights reserved, IPS – Inter Press Service, 2008.

Athar Parvaiz Bhat

SRINAGAR, Sep 21 (IPS) – Plans by the central government to conduct elections in Jammu and Kashmir, due originally in November, remain uncertain because of the serious regional and religious differences that have cropped up between the two main regions that make up the composite territory.

Relations between Hindu-majority Jammu and the Muslim-dominated Kashmir valley have been souring since May over a move to transfer forest land to a board that manages a popular, annual pilgrimage to the Hindu cave shrine of Amarnath, deep in the Kashmir Himalayas.

Agitations over the controversial move resulted in the regional People’s Democratic Party (PDP) withdrawing support to the coalition government led by chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad of the Congress party and the state being placed under direct central rule on Jul. 7.

And now, the federal government, the election commission, political parties and civil society leaders are unable to agree on when to schedule elections for a new state assembly.

”I don’t think holding elections would be a good thing to do at a time when the state is passing through a difficult situation. The entire state is on edge due to the communal and regional tension. I reckon that it will cause the situation to deteriorate further,” Balraj Puri, a noted expert on the Kashmir conflict who is based in Jammu, told IPS.

”Let the situation calm down. I think an internal dialogue between the two regions should be started on a priority basis to bring about a rapprochement,” said Puri who favours autonomy for the different regions of the state.

Prof. Rekha Choudhary, who teaches political science at Jammu University, believes that by planning to hold elections the central government appeared to be insensitive to the serious regional polarisation that has occurred. ”I think holding elections in the state in the current circumstances would be a huge risk. We have never seen the kind of hostilities between the regions of the state like what exists today,” she said.

Choudhary said the central government seems to be driven by the belief that holding elections would help bridge the gap between the Jammu and Kashmir regions. ”In Kashmir pro-freedom groups that have appealed for a total boycott of the elections are going to gain in popularity by capitalising on the popular mood of hostility against India. And in Jammu, the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which favoured the land transfer to the Hindu shrine board, is going to benefit,” she said.

India’s Kashmir state is a classic example of linguistic and ethno-religious diversity and comprises the three distinct regions of Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh. Together, these regions are known to the world as Indian Administered Kashmir.

About 55 percent of the state’s total population of 10 million is settled in the alpine Kashmir region, traditionally the seat of power. While 98 percent of the people who live in Kashmir are Muslim, Jammu’s population is 60 percent Hindu. Ladakh accounts for two percent of the total population.

About a third of the area of the former princely state Jammu and Kashmir is under the administration of Pakistan.

In 1989, people in Muslim-dominated Kashmir began an armed struggle in favour of freedom from India and this spilled over into the Muslim areas of Jammu.

Political analysts say the mistrust between the Jammu and Kashmir regions has been brewing for a long time. The people and leaders of these regions have been competing for central developmental funds and prized positions in administration.

”The government of India never tried to evolve a mechanism to hold all the regions together in order to give them a feeling of belongingness. It never had a focused policy regarding Kashmir and was keen on installing puppet regimes in the state which would serve its own interests,” observes Gul Mohammad Wani who teaches political science at Kashmir University.

”Jammu region is demanding a greater share in power which, according to them, has always remained centred in Kashmir. On the contrary, people in the Kashmir region are demanding complete freedom from India,” Wani said.

Observers say that if the elections are not held by November, they will have to be postponed till April given the harsh winter in Kashmir and Ladakh. Out of a total of 87 assembly constituencies, a majority of them, 50, fall in Kashmir.

Most political parties prefer to delay polls till next year. The exception remains the pro-Hindu BJP which may benefit from the communal divisions, especially in Jammu.

”We suggest that congenial conditions be created for holding elections before announcing election dates,” says Omar Abdullah, president of the pro-India National Conference party. His viewpoint is shared by Mehbooba Mufti, leader of the PDP which also favours Kashmir remaining a part of India.

At least 42 people died during the agitations against the land transfer with the movement quickly morphing into revival of calls for freedom from Indian rule — not heard for the last five years.

Suspicions between the two regions worsened after traders in the Kashmir region announced snapping of relations with their Jammu counterparts in reaction to what they called ”economic blockade” of their region by the people of Jammu during the agitation.

Kashmir receives essential supplies and exports its produce to markets in India solely through the 300 km-long Jammu-Srinagar highway.

”How can we think of maintaining trade ties with the traders from Jammu when they were party to the recent economic blockade of Kashmir by the people of Jammu,” says president of the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industries (KCCI) Mubeen Shah. ”The wounds, inflicted by the economic blockade of Kashmir, will take a lot of time to heal up”

According to economists, boycotting trade with Jammu would mean immense loss to traders on both sides.

”Kashmir’s total trade is estimated at Rs 520 billion (11.3 billion US dollars) per annum out of which the yearly trade exchange between the Kashmir and Jammu regions is Rs 270 billion (six billion dollars),” says Prof. Nissar Ali who teaches economics at Kashmir University.

Traders in Kashmir have now intensified their demand for reopening the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road, which connects Indian Kashmir with the Pakistan administered part.

Before Pakistan and India grabbed control of parts of Jammu and Kashmir in 1947, the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road served as the main link between Kashmir and the markets of Rawalpindi in Pakistan and beyond.

On Aug. 11, thousands of Kashmiri traders and common people took out a symbolic march towards Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan administered Kashmir, to assert this demand. At least five people were killed and many others injured when police, stopped the march by opening fire some 20 km ahead of the Line of Control, the de-facto border between the Indian and Pakistani parts of Kashmir.

AL QAEDA & THE MARRIOTT HOTEL CHAIN

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR–PAPER NO.448

Global Intel Net – Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Sunday, September 21, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

Since 9/11, the Marriott Hotel Chain has been the victim of six terrorist strikes mounted by Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist organisations. On four occasions—- thrice in Islamabad and once in Jakarta— it was directly targeted. On the remaining two occasions (New York and Karachi) it was a collateral victim of a terrorist strike not directly targeting it.

2. On 9/11, the destruction of the two towers of the New York World Centre by Al Qaeda destroyed the New York Marriott World Trade Center Hotel and damaged the 504-room Marriott Financial Center located there. Some senior executives of the hotel chain, who had their offices in the towers, were killed.

3.On June 14, 2002,the Marriott Hotel in Karachi suffered minor damages when a suicide car bomb exploded near the US Consulate in the same area. Eleven persons—-mostly passers-by—were killed. The hotel was not targeted.On August 5, 2003, the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta was the direct target of an attack in which 14 people were killed. The pro-Al Qaeda Jemmah Islamiya was suspected. On October 28, 2004,the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad suffered some damage to its lobby, as a bomb went off inside the hotel. Fifteen persons were injured, including an American diplomat.On January 26, 2007, an alleged suicide bomber and a private security guard, who stopped him for questioning, were killed when the terrorist blew himself up in the parking lot of the hotel.

4. In the third attack directly targeting the hotel at Islamabad on September 20,2008, sixty persons—including some foreigners— were reported to have been killed when a truck bomber carrying about one ton of explosive blew the truck up, when he was stopped for questioning at the gate by the security guards. The explosion, which practically destroyed part of the hotel causing a major fire,, took place on a day when physical security in Islamabad was very tight since only a few hours before the explosion President Asif Ali Zardari addressed a joint session of the two houses of the Parliament. The Parliament House, the Presidency, the Prime Minister’s House, offices of ministers, the judges colony and the housing colony of some of the staff of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) are located near the hotel.

5. Hotels and restaurants with suspected Jewish ownership have been among the favourite targets of Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations. Al Qaeda had also targeted the Hilton Hotel in Sharm-el-Sheikh in 2005 and the Jewish-owned Paradise Hotel in Mombasa in 2002. Pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorists had targeted French submarine construction engineers staying in the Sheraton Hotel of Karachi in May,2002.

6. Apart from suspected Jewish ownership, another reason for the targeting of the Marriott hotels in Jakarta and Islamabad are the fact that often Western Embassies in these capitals use these hotels for providing accommodation to their staff and visiting officials. They also hire a large number of rooms in the hotels for temporarily locating some of their offices till permanent accommodation is found.

7. Pakistani authorities suspect thast the explosion of September 20,2008, might have been carried out by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in retaliation for the current operation s of the Pakistani security forces in the Swat Valley of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and in the Bajaur Agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Another suspicion voiced by them is that the Parliament House might have been the real target of the attack and that the bomber instead went to the hotel when he found that access control to the Parliament House was tight.

8. Even though it may turn out to be correct that the suicide bomber was a Pashtun tribal from the TTP, Al Qaeda involvement in the planning and execution is a strong possibility. Since the commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July last year, the TTP and individual terrorists acting on their own have repeatedly demonstrated a capability for terrorist strikes in highly-protected areas in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, where the General Headquarters of the Army are located, and other cantonments. They had even targeted the GHQ itself as well as the offices of the ISI. In most of these cases, the explosions took place under identical circumstances—-the suicide bomber triggering the explosion when stopped for questioning by the security personnel.

9. Since the beginning of 2007, there have been nearly 300 suicide explosions in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Most of these strikes are believed to have originated from Pakistan’s tribal belt where Al Qaeda and the Taliban have their sanctuaries. These statistics and the continuing wave of suicide strikes or attempted strikes show the inexhaustible availability of explosives and detonators and volunteers for suicide terrorism in the tribal belt. Neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan nor the US nor the other NATO forces have been able to come out with a workable answer to the question as to how to dry up these sources of supply. Unless an answer is found to this question, one has to watch helplessly as suicide bombers spread death and destruction. Whereas in India, the jihadi terrorists have been switching over to commonly available material such as a mix of ammonium nitrate and fuel oil, the terrorists in Pakistan seem to have a plentiful supply of high military-grade explosives. (21-9-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

COUNTER-TERRORISM: ACT NOW

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.445

Global News Blog – Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Thursday, September 18, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

The address of the Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, to the Governors’ conference at New Delhi on September 17,2008, contains a number of important pronouncements relating to the fight against terrorism. These pronouncements taken together amount to an attempt by the Government, which is almost at the end of its term before the general elections are due, to come out of the denial mode into which it had kept itself confined since it came to office in 2004.

2.While refuting allegations from the critics that the Government was soft on terrorism, the Prime Minister admitted that there had been intelligence failures and that in addition to the continuing threats from jihadi terrorists infiltrated from Pakistan, the nation is now finding itself confronted with a new dimension of the threat posed by more Indian nationals gravitating to the ranks of the jihadis.

3. A point, which was not mentioned by the Prime Minister, but which needs to be underlined is that the phenomenon of home-grown jihadis is not new to India. We had faced a serious threat of home-grown jihadis from the Al Umma of Tamil Nadu after the demolition of the Babri Masjid in December 1992. Al Umma spread death and destruction across Tamil Nadu between 1993 and 1999 including the orchestrated serial blasts in Coimbatore in February,1998. Al Umma was almost a hundred per cent home-grown movement with no links to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) or to the global jihad waged by Al Qaeda and its Pakistani associates. The threat from Al Umma was largely neutralized by the effective action taken by the Tamil Nadu Police after the Coimbatore blasts.

4. Between the end of the Kargil conflict with Pakistan towards the end of 1999 and November,2007, we saw a new wave of jihadi terrorist strikes outside Jammu & Kashmir involving either the ISI-sponsored Pakistani organizations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) or a mix of Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Indian elements. While the Pakistani and Bangladeshi elements in this mix largely belonged to the LET and the HUJI, the Indian elements came largely from the Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) plus a few with no previous affiliation to any organization. These groups thought and acted tactically as well as strategically.

5.Tactically, they viewed their operations as meant to retaliate against the demolition of the Babri Masjid and the anti-Muslim incidents in Gujarat in 2002 after the massacre of some Hindu pilgrims traveling by a train by some Muslim fanatics at Godhra. Strategically, they viewed them as part of the global jihad being waged by the International Islamic Front (IIF) under the leadership of Al Qaeda for achieving an Islamic Caliphate and putting an end to the presence and influence of the US in the Islamic world.

6. What we have been seeing across India since November last year is a revival of the Al Umma phenomenon of reprisal terrorism with the tactical objective of wreaking vengeance against the society as a whole and the Governments in New Delhi and different States for the alleged wrongs done to the Indian Muslims. These elements have been operating under the name of the Indian Mujahideen (IM) and deny vehemently in their propaganda any foreign links either with the ISI or with the Pakistani organizations. They have till now not given any indication of any strategic objective. They just want to kill and desire to demonstrate their ability to kill wherever and whenever they want.

7. All the suspected perpetrators arrested till now in Ahmedabad, Jaipur and other places in connection with the serial blasts for which the IM has claimed responsibility are Indian Muslims. This need not mean that there is no hidden foreign involvement either of Pakistani organizations or of Al Qaeda. The fact that till now they have not been talking and acting strategically does not mean that they do not consider themselves as part of the global jihad being waged under the leadership of Al Qaeda.

8. One significant difference needs to be noted in the modus operandi of the Pakistan-sponsored jihadi organizations and the IM. Under instructions from the ISI, Pakistani organizations generally do not claim responsibility for attacks on civilians. They claim responsibility only for the attacks on the security forces. Like Al Qaeda, the IM admits its responsibility for targeted attacks on civilians and proclaims such attacks as part of its policy. Al Qaeda admitted its responsibility for the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US and lionized the terrorists, who attacked the London public transportation system in July,2005. There have been other instances of Al Qaeda openly proclaiming its responsibility for attacks on civilians.

9. The new dimension of the threat as stated by the Prime Minister has made him concede the need to enhance the powers of the police through special laws where necessary and to set up a special central agency to investigate and prosecute terrorism-related cases.

10. Unfortunately, the Prime Minister’s pronouncements, which indicate a change in the Government’s thinking and strategy, have come hardly a few months before the elections. His critics would, therefore, suspect that his pronouncements were more an electoral ploy than the result of a genuine change of conviction as to how to fight terrorism.

11.Moreover, even if he is able to counter successfully suspicions of an electoral ploy, the concretization of his pronouncements through the drafting and enactment of appropriate laws and introducing the necessary changes in the counter-terrorism architecture will take at least a year. This is not something that can be done overnight. The Lok Sabha is about to enter the lame duck mode and the opposition will try its best not to give the Government any credit for bringing about the necessary changes.

12.In this context, what is important is an urgent short-term plan to identify the brains behind the self-styled IM and neutralize them before they spread further death and destruction. As I have been pointing out repeatedly, this is a pan-Indian threat not confined to a single State and hence calls for a pan-Indian response. It is important to make the Police in all the States where the blasts have already taken place carry out their investigations in an integrated manner through an appropriate short-term mechanism, which would not require any major change in the existing laws.

13. We have had three examples of successful investigations and prosecution. The first was the investigation into the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by the LTTE in 1991. In view of its ramifications extending to more than one State and its external linkages, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), then headed by Vijaykaran, an officer of the Intelligence Bureau, was asked to take over the investigation through a special task force headed by D.R.Kartikeyan.

14. The second was the investigation into the Mumbai serial blasts of March,1993. Here the investigation was done by the Mumbai Police with the CBI handling the external ramifications. Narasimha Rao, the then Prime Minister, set up a co-ordination committee headed by S.B.Chavan, the then Home Minister, to co-ordinate the investigation on a day-to-day basis. Rajesh Pilot, the then Minister of State for Internal Security, played a live wire role in this co-ordination. Narasimha Rao closely monitored the work of this committee, by periodically chairing the meetings himself.

15. The third was the investigation into the terrorist strikes in Tamil Nadu. This was done in a very creditable manner by the Tamil Nadu Police through its own resources.

16. The serial blasts, which the country has been facing since November 2007, are more complicated. While the Police officers of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Gujarat, and Delhi have been doing excellent work through their resources, the final results in terms of identification, neutralization and prosecution may not be quite satisfactory in the absence of a continuous and effective central role. How to achieve this has to be decided by the Prime Minister quickly in consultation with the Chief Ministers of the targeted States.

17. Political and electoral considerations should not be allowed to come in the way of time-bound action to put a stop to these serial blasts.

18. If these blasts continue in this manner with the police and the intelligence agencies being perceived not only by our public, but also by foreign Governments and investors as helpless, it could come in the way of our efforts to invite more foreign investment. The foreign investors have till now shown signs of continuing confidence in the capability of our Police and security agencies to prevail over the terrorists sooner than later. But, if such incidents continue at regular intervals, this confidence could be shaken.

19. The time for action is now, not tomorrow, which may be too late.(18-9-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

US GLOVES ARE OFF AGAINST PAKISTAN

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global News Blog
Sunday, September 21, 2008

By Malladi Rama Rao

So the US gloves are off against Pakistan. The battle zones in eastern Afghanistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan are merged into one. From September 3, American ground assault troops with helicopter gun ships providing aerial cover are targeting Taliban and al Qaeda militants who made America lose any hope of winning the unending war in Afghanistan. US air strikes on militant bases deep inside Pak territory are also not new. The first reported strike took place at Damadola village in Bajaur agency early 2006 in which 18 civilians were killed. But what distinguishes the September 3 attack was that it was publicly acknowledged by the Americans with the White House ‘leak’ to the New York Times that President Bush had authorised in July itself attacks on terrorist havens inside Pakistan.

According to a version of the ‘attack’, two Chinook helicopters dropped several American soldiers at 1 pm on the Afghan side of the border near the Saway Waray area of Angoor Adda. They then moved swiftly towards Pakistan border villages with a helicopter gun ship flying over them, completed their ‘mission’ and returned to their bases across the Durand Line.

Well, this is hot pursuit of militants to smoke them out of their holes, as promised by President Bush nearly seven years ago. But the timing of his action is intriguing. Is he on a desperate push for an ‘al-Qaeda trophy? Or is he trying to pump prime the fortunes of the Republicans in the Presidential elections after a string of diplomatic set backs from Georgia to Iraq and in Bolivia and Venezuela.

Whatever be the ‘truth’ on which the Americans are always economical, the US President’s hands were forced by his military commanders who for long were talking about the Pakistan’s double-crossing in the fight against terrorists. There was a clear sign of desperation when the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, told the House Armed Services Committee: ‘Frankly, we are running out of time…..I am not convinced we are winning in Afghanistan….(but) I am convinced we can.’ Both Admiral Mullen and Defence Secretary Robert Gates told Congress this week that for victory in Afghanistan the US needed to take the fight to the enemy inside Pakistan. And on September 9, in a speech at the National Defence University, President Bush all but called Pakistan a terrorist state, saying that terrorists were ‘increasingly using Pakistan as a base from which to destabilise Afghanistan’s young democracy’.

There was a time before 11 September 2001 when the US would resolutely reject Indian complaints that Pakistan had become a haven for terrorists. The US refused to believe for long that Pakistan was a major part of the problem of terrorism and saw the country as a solution and counted it as its front-line ally. Now, it is mounting pressure on Pakistan to reform its ‘powerful’ Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). “It (ISI reform) has to be done,” Assistant Secretary of State for south and central Asian affairs Richard Boucher told the Reuters in Washington on September 16. Why ISI has suddenly become the bad guy for the Americans is unclear as yet. It could be a result of the attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul in July. The ISI helped Jalaluddin Haqqani’s fighters to carry out the attack. American officials told Dexter Filkins, a correspondent for The Times that the evidence of the ISI’s involvement was overwhelming. “It was sort of this ‘aha’ moment,” one of them said.

Jalaluddin is a long-time associate of bin Laden. His son, Serajuddin Haqqani, is a senior Taliban commander battling the Americans in eastern Afghanistan. The Haqqanis are believed to be overseeing operations from a hiding place in North Waziristan. The Pakistan establishment has never tried to hide its equation with the Haqqanis. Two years ago, for instance, a senior ISI official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told a New York Times reporter that he regarded Serajuddin Haqqani as one of the ISI’s intelligence assets. “We are not apologetic about this,” the ISI official said. For a presumed ally of the United States, that was a stunning admission. The September 3 strike reportedly killed Jalaluddin’s wife and his daughter.

The question, therefore, is why did the Bush administration not undertake the hot pursuit of Pak based militants thus far. And instead, as a Stratfor commentary points out, used New Delhi as a lever to extract concessions from Islamabad like it did during the 2001-02 military stand off between the two South Asian rivals. The answer lies in the personal rapport Gen Pervez Musharraf had with President Bush, and his success in hoodwinking the Pentagon, CIA and the State Department. He did not even once visit the Wazirs and Mashuds in Waziristan during his nine- year rule. The tribal chiefs felt emboldened as they realised that the leadership in Islamabad lacked the will to deal with them.

Yes, under American pressure, Gen Musharraf ‘declared’ war against the militants and deployed ‘over 100,000 troops’ to ‘flush’ them out. He ordered the arrest of some 2,000 militants, many of whom were trained in ISI sponsored camps in POK and Northern Areas. Deception was the game Musharraf practiced in this drive as well. Quietly he allowed the release of most arrested militants. Pak Scouts and Frontier Constabulary were made the cannon fodder in the offensive against militants and the army was mostly spared. Also foreign militants were hit the most while the Afghan militants and the Pakistani militants who support the Afghans were ‘kid -gloved’, according to Khalid Aziz, who heads the Peshawar based Regional Institute of Policy Research.

President Bush had an opportunity to arm twist Gen Musharraf, when the Pak leader had entered into a series of agreements with tribal elders in Shakai, Sarogha and Miramshah. He did not. It is one of those enigmatic Bush mysteries, to put it mildly. Because these agreements for the first time had showed that all was not well in the US-Pak alliance. No doubt the Americans used ‘Predator’ diplomacy to literally nullify these peace accords but that was neither here nor there.

There is an argument that by launching direct operations against the Pak based militants the United States is undermining nascent democracy in Pakistan. This talking point is valid for the seminar circuit. It ignores the reality that Washington (like Beijing) is always comfortable with tyrants, and its concern to democracy is limited to Oval Office interactions, White House Press Briefing Room and occasionally to the Rose Garden tours. Any how, Pakistan’s new helmsman, Asif Ali Zardari is a US-backed President much like his predecessor, Musharraf, who was a US-backed dictator. This is notwithstanding the British claim that London too played a major role in ushering in the Zardari presidency by turning the screws on UK-based Pak leaders like MQM chief to make them fall in-line. The Americans opted for Zardari because as a known Mr 10 per cent he appeared more amenable than Nawaz Sharif, who is completely in the Saudi camp.

Fact of the matter is that Zardari is only a stop-gap President. He refuses to acknowledge the home truth though. That was why he dared to declare with great gusto that he wound pursue of a policy of negotiations rather than confrontation to win over the tribal militant leadership. And immediately burnt his bridges with the United States. In contrast, his wily army chief, Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani keeps himself on board the US plans while letting the myth that he had ordered the troops to shoot US raiders gains wide currency.

Washington and the American media are playing no mean role in spreading the ‘good word’ that Pakistan army is ‘determined’ to ‘defend the sovereignty of the nation’. Interestingly, however, the Kayani myth was shattered by a report tucked in the inside pages of ‘The Dawn’ on Sept 17. The headline itself was a give away. It read: “ISPR chief (army spokesman) downplays report about orders given to forces.”

The report by Iftikhar A Khan said, “Talking to Dawn, Maj-Gen Athar Abbas (army spokesman) downplayed the AP report (on orders to troops to fire at the Americans…) and said there was nothing new about it. He said he had been quoted out of context by AP. He said he had been asked how would Pakistan retaliate. The answer was that it would be done by engaging those who violated the sovereignty of the country. He did not say when the orders to fire on US troops were issued. He also did not say whether the Army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani personally took the decision. The ISPR spokesman also played down suggestions that the instructions had been put into operation”.

The point is Gen Kayani has hitched himself on to anti-American band wagon with effortless ease. It helps him (and this suits the Americans) to emerge from the shadows as the darling of the masses and soldiers alike. Look at his tour diary if you are not convinced still. Last week, when anti-American sentiment was at its peak, tribal elders and religious scholars of FATA and NWFP were backing the ‘bold stance of the Army chief’, and the political class was hailing ‘no –nonsense statements of the army chief’ and was poking fun at ‘the wimpish political leadership’, (The News, Sept 17), he was neither in Wana nor Miranshah, not even Bajaur, but at the forward posts on the Line of Actual Contact and Line of Control in Northern Areas. He patted his troops on Siachen (Pak controlled). The General spoke of ‘national consensuses’ on Kashmir and declared ‘Odds can’t deter Pak army from defending the nation’. Next week he is going to China on a five-day visit, his first since he assumed the command of the Pak army.

The Kayani postures serve a purpose. More since he is in regular contact with Admiral Michael Mullen who keeps hoping into Islamabad on unscheduled visits often ( the latest visit was last week). Whatever may be his dilemma, the Kayani rhetoric helps to divert public attention towards the core issue of Kashmir and the traditional enemy ‘Hindustan’.

Undoubtedly this is bad news for Manmohan Singh government as it has already burnt its fingers badly with its Amarnath follies and the ineptitude and indifference of Home Minister Shivraj Patil. But it gives the badly needed breathing space for Kayani and his colleagues in dealing with the US. Any how Islamabad cannot risk (even dream of) a major confrontation with Washington because of its pathetic dependence on the monthly American and IMF doles.

On its part, the Bush administration is not going to get sucked into Pakistan tribal belt. It has learnt its lessons well from Vietnam to Iraq and the bloody nose the Soviet Union had suffered in Afghanistan. It has a limited goal and limited time frame to operate. Firstly, it wants to replicate the narrow strategy pioneered in Iraq, namely bump off the militant leaders one–by-one and help create infrastructure to facilitate future operations. Secondly, in fact, most importantly, diminish, if not end completely, the powerful role of the ISI, reform the army and rework the skewed policy with a set of new managers like Kayani. A high risk policy it is but President Bush is known for such gambles.

About the Author

Malladi Rama Rao is an analyst and writer on the Indian political scene and geo-political and security issues of South Asia. He directs a Weekly Feature Service in English, Syndicate Features, in colloboration with his wife Vaniram. He is also the India Editor of Asian Tribune.

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The Dragon, Emerging soft colonial power

Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Saturday, September 20, 2008

© Copyright 2008 Malladi Rama Rao. All rights reserved.

By Malladi Rama Rao

The dazzling display at the opening and closing ceremonies of the Beijing Olympic Games may have reminded some of the Mao-era mass parades in The Tiananmen Square. But not to the people across the world who were glued to the TV sets what with their fire works, pyro-techniques, and more than 2000 beating drums with their hands and florescent drum sticks in perfect unison. And their verdict was unanimous: China has arrived though Tion Kwa, a Bernard Schwartz Fellow at the Asia Society in Washington DC prefers to dub it as a China’s synchronised anachronism.

According to him, it is not easy to think of such a display as being in line with modern norms. “The Chinese economy may be more market-oriented today than ever before, but, because the Communist Party is still in charge, China remains out of sync with those parts of Asia and the rest of the world where communism has long since come to be viewed as an anachronistic oddity”, Tion opines.

Of late, there have been many studies that have focused increasingly on the internal factors at play in China. One such study by Minxin Pei opines that there are several systemic risks in Chinese domestic politics. In his view unless these are addressed seriously, the survival of the regime may be at risk. Pei, who is Director of the China Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International peace, goes on to say that the surging pace of the Chinese economy is blinding the world to its political risks.

We cannot be oblivious to another reality. It is that from Thailand to Myanmar and from Sri Lanka to Nigeria Chinese goods are being lapped up by the dozen every day. Simply because these are affordable at all ends of the scale. In Pakistan for instance, as the Lahore daily The Nation says, Chinese motorbikes, medicines, toys and shoes are forty to forty-five percent cheap. Stationery making units are on the verge of collapse because of availability of cheap Chinese imported and smuggled items like pencils, another Lahore daily the Daily Times reported on June 6.

In the El Dorado of the 21st century, United States, consumers looking for low prices have snapped up Chinese-made goods in recent years, Economic Policy Institute, a Left-leaning Washington think-tank says. Its finding that the US trade deficit with China cost 2.3 million American jobs between 2001 and 2007 may fuel debate about free trade ahead of November presidential elections.

New global order

More so because a professor of management and human resources at the Ohio State University has just published his new book asking Americans to be prepared for a new global order. “Hundreds of years ago China was one of the world’s leading powers and they want to be number one again”, Oded Shenkar writes in his book, “The Chinese Century: The Rising Chinese Economy and its impact on the Global Economy, The Balance of Power and Your Job” (Wharton School of Publishing).
These pundits are worried that China could one day pass the US as major economic power. Well their concern is understandable. But in their America centric pre-occupation, they are ignoring another reality. It is that China has taken a leaf out of colonial masters of yore in its single minded pursuit of geo-political, strategic, energy and economic goals. Politics, as a scholar once said, is built on two foundations: military and economic. The two interact and support each other. This is clearly brought out by the power play China is practising in Africa and Asia. Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy sums up the situation thus: ‘The go out strategy has paid remarkable dividends and will continue to do so at least in the short term’. There is a flip-side to the Chinese rise and its business deals with unstable regimes: Beijing has become a target of attacks from Pakistan to Iraq, Nigeria, Yemen and Mogadishu. The abductors are often faceless local groups with scores to settle with the authorities.

Like the gunmen in Southern Niger Delta, who had abducted five Chinese workers on Jan 5, 2007. “They did not want money but release of four prisoners of Niger Delta origin in the Nigerian jails, “according to a Reuters report of the day from Abuja.

The attacks on Chinese engineers and workers across Pakistan are well documented. From the turbulent FATA region bordering Afghanistan to Islamabad, Chinese have not been safe in the recent years. They are not a large community numbering around 5000 in all but they are present in all segments of the Pak economy from the lowly massage parlours in capital to mining, drilling and construction of telecom towers. The message by the Lal Majid clerics (June 23, 2007) is illustrative of the local mood.

While releasing seven Chinese women ‘picked up’ by the students of the Madrassa attached to the Masjid from a nearby massage parlour, the clerics said, ‘while we value friendship with China we will not allow even Chinese women to work as prostitute and damage the morale of Muslims ‘. The pickup and subsequent events had led to Chinese pressure on the military regime of the day to act against the mosque authorities.

That the Chinese are pususing what an Indian Leftist calls as Marwari capitalism is also clear from another aspect of Chinese involvement in Pakistan. Jiye Sindh Quami Mahaz is against China’s financial aid to construction of big dams like the Bhasha dam for instance. Several rallies in Sindh and the Northern Areas have not moved the Chinese investment agency to rethink its offer.

Economic carrots

Apparently, Beijing is concerned with the economic carrots Islamabad under General Musharraf had dangled. These ranged from a rail link parallel to the Karkoram high way ending at Havelian. That will be connected to Gwadar port, which provides the Chinese alternative sea route to foreign trade.

Like the earlier generation of colonialists, the Dragon today is ever willing to play with whoever suits its bill. For its ends matter. May be for it the adage precept is better than practice and the Gandhian concept of ends and means to end matter equally are dated. Consider how Beijing had dealt with LTTE and Colombo alike. Also how in Myanmar Chinese nationals carried out illegal gold mining in Laiza and Namsan Yang areas, some 80 km ( 50 miles) south east of Myitkyina, Kachin state. Yangoon Junta was forced to step in and ban all mining activity in the area since the second week of June, 2008.

China earned the wrath of local movement for justice in Northern Niger with its patronage of Niger government. Chinese companies supplied arms to the authorities as the trade off for the permission to undertake uranium mining. But faced with abductions, uranium mining was shut down (2007). China has supplied arms to several governments and rebels in Africa for mutual benefit. Take for instance China-Sudan ties. China buys two thirds of Sudan’s oil and in return sells arms with no concern whatsoever for Darfur imbroglio.

Human rights
Johannesburg’s publication, ‘The Weekender’ reports that Mugabwe regime is getting Chinese weapons. Foreign office in Beijing termed the report as a groundless rumour. , Professor Humphrey Moshi of the University of Dar-es-Salaam doesn’t appear to be a taker for the denial. This is clear from his advice to China: Give up engagement with rouge nations. His contention is that China’s engagement with such countries undermines human rights values. In his view,” Chinese investments will likely fuel conflicts as also delay the conflict resolution and mediation process’.

A close study of Chinese presence in Africa and Asia shows that the professor’s advice has no takers in Beijing. Because, as Drew Thompson says in a James Foundation report (Volume 4 Issue 24, December 07, 2007) its efforts are aimed at creating a paradigm of globalisation that favours China. His conclusion is based on his study of how Chinese interests in Africa expanded to spheres of influence and access to energy and raw materials through diplomacy, trade, aid and investment.

Observation
These observations are equally valid for Asia since China has adopted the same route in countries like Sri Lanka and Myanmar. What should however be of equal concern is China’s promotion of its own brand of economic development and reform, model amongst the Third World countries. Beijing has been encouraging friendly countries to send high level delegations to learn from Chinese experiments and experience.

Pertinent is the observation of George Friedman, the Stratfor expert. Says he: “The dramatic economic development has benefited the coast and left the interior—the vast majority of Chinese—behind. It has also left China vulnerable to global economic forces that it cannot control and cannot accommodate. This is not new in Chinese history, but its usual resolution is in regionalism and the weakening of the central government. Deng’s gamble is being played out by his successors. He dealt the hand. They have to play it. The question on the table is whether the economic basis of China is a foundation or a balancing act. If the former, it can last a long time. If the latter, everyone falls down eventually. There appears to be little evidence that it is a foundation. It excludes most of the Chinese from the game, people who are making less than $100 a month”.

About the Author

Malladi Rama Rao is an analyst and writer on the Indian political scene and geo-political and security issues of South Asia. He directs a Weekly Feature Service in English, Syndicate Features, in colloboration with his wife Vaniram. He is also the India Editor of Asian Tribune.

SYNDICATE FEATURES

B-308, Puneet Apts. B-10, Vasundhara Enclave, Delhi; Ph -22617660 E-mail: syndicatefeatures@rediffmail.com

US STRIKES IN FATA: CHANGE IN CONTINUITY

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.447

Global Politics Online – Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Friday, September 19, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

The rules of engagement relating to Pakistan’s tribal belt followed by the US forces in Afghanistan before July,2008, were that while Pakistan had agreed to deniable air strikes by unmanned Predator aircraft of the US on suspected terrorist hide-outs in Pakistani territory adjoining the Pakistan-Afghan border in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), it had not agreed to any unilateral ground strikes by the US forces based in Afghanistan either in exercise of the right of hot pursuit or to pre-empt planned attacks by Al Qaeda and the Taliban on the NATO forces in Afghanistan from sanctuaries in Pakistani territory.

2. According to leaks to sections of the US media by unidentified US officials, in the middle of July President George Bush approved some changes in the rules of engagement relating to ground strikes under which he authorised the US special forces to undertake unilateral ground strikes in Pakistani territory under certain circumstances. In this connection, reference is invited to my previous article titled PAK-US SNAFU of 13-9-08 at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2843.html .
[Read more...]

INDIAN MUJAHIDEEN: MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR– PAPER NO.444

Global News Blog – Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

( To be read in continuation of my earlier article of 26-8-08 titled “Indian Mujahideen Planning Suicide Attacks” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers29/paper2821.html )

The group calling itself the Indian Mujahideen (IM) has so far sent five E-mail messages to sections of the media since it made its appearance in November last year. The first message was sent a few minutes before the serial blasts in three towns of Uttar Pradesh in November last year. The second was sent after the blasts in Jaipur in May,2008. The third was sent before the blasts in Ahmedabad on July 26,2008. The fourth was sent after the press conference held by the Gujarat Police in August,2008, in which they claimed to have solved the case relating to the Ahmedabad and Jaipur blasts, identified the perpetrators and arrested many of them. According to the Gujarat police version, it was the Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), which is now operating as the IM. The firfth message was sent before the blasts in New Delhi on September 13,2008.

2.The first, second, third and fifth messages claimed responsibility for the blasts and the fourth debunked the claims of the Gujarat Police of having solved the case and tried to convey the impression that the arrested persons had nothing to do with the blasts. Surprisingly, the IM has not sent any E-mail messages claiming responsibility for the serial blasts in Bangalore on July 25,2008.

3.Intriguingly, the IM describes its latest E-mail warning of the New Delhi blasts as “our third consecutive E-mail “. It says: “The INDIAN MUJAHIDEEN accepts the sole responsibilityof Delhi serial blasts, and we claim this, through our third consecutive email, which is, unfortunately, still a mystery for you. It is very sad to see the bad condition of your cyber forensics who have still failed to find out our technique of sending the “Message of Death”.” Why does the IM talk of only three E-mail messages, when the media had received five E-mails, all purporting to be from the IM?

4. A careful study of all the E-mail messages purported to have been sent in the name of the IM indicates the following:

* While the first two E-mail messages were virulent in their content, they were not obnoxiously abusive in their language. The last three messages were not only virulent in their content, but also obnoxious in their language. I had pointed out in my earlier paper cited above that in the message about the Ahmedabad blasts, they had used the word bastard which normally Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations are never known to use. The latest message on the New Delhi blasts are even more abusive than the previous two messages regarding the blasts in Ahmedabad.P.C.Pandey, the DG of Police of Gujarat, has been abused as a rascal, a bastard, a corrupt old hag, a base-born criminal and a filthy loyal dog of Narendra Modi. These are typical of the Mafia underworld of Mumbai and Gujarat.
* The Gujarat Police and the Rajasthan Police and their Police chiefs have been severely condemned in the latest and a specific threat of terrorist attack has also been held out against A.K.Jain of the Rajasthan Police. But, significanly, there is no criticism of the Karnataka Police and its chief. There is not even a reference to the investigation by the Bangalore Police, whereas the investigations by the Ahmedabad and Jaipur police have been debunked and their claims of having solved the cases have been questioned. Similarly, there is no reference to the UP Police investigation of the blasts of November last.
* The language used in the third and fourth messages about the Ahmedabad blasts and the fifth message about the New Delhi blasts, which are very abusive, differ from the language used in the first message about the UP blasts and the second about the Jaipur blasts.

5. Why such discrepancies? It is important to find answers to them before we come to definitive conclusions about the IM. Just as the proof of the pudding is in the eating, the proof of the terrorist is in the catching.Unless and until we are able to identify and neutralise or arrest the right persons, who are the brains behind the IM, we will have more surprises. We have arrested many perpetrators of individual blasts, but I am not sure we have arrested the brains. By thinking and prematurely projecting that we have identified and arrested the brains, we will make ourselves liable for more surprises, which could damage the credibility of the police in the eyes of the public.

6. In the latest message, the State Governments of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been criticised for their alleged harassment of the Muslims, but the main brunt of the criticism has been on Maharashtra and the Mumbai Police. Having attacked the national capital in New Delhi, they could next target the economic capital in Mumbai.

7. From these messages, it is apparent that the IM does not as yet have a strategic objective such as the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate or the “liberation” of the Muslims of India. Its objective till now is purely tactical to wreak vengeance on the Hindutva organisations and the various State Governments accused of harassing the Muslims. New Delhi seems to have been targeted not only to exhibit their capability for action in the capital, but also to wreak vengeance on the Government of India for its failure to prevent the demolition of the Babri Masjid in December,1992.The message says: “Babri Masjid was and will remain to be our glorious self esteem and Inshallah, we will prove it to you a hornet’s nest in which you have immersed your bare hand, unaware of the pain to come. If you are prepared to suffer the results of this issue,then by the will of Allah, verily! We will make you face it, and if you feel you are wise enough, then here we announce our ultimatum:Vacate the land of Babri as soon as you can.” (15-9-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Man of Peace Swimming against the Current

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – Global Analyst Online
Tuesday, September 16, 2008

© Copyright 2008 Nicola Nasser. All rights reserved.

By Nicola Nasser*

For the first time, since the U.S.-hosted Annapolis conference on November 27 last year re-launched the Palestinian – Israeli negotiations, which were interrupted by the Al-Aqsa Intifada in 2000 after the collapse of the Camp David trilateral summit, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas came out for the first time on record in Cairo on September 6 to “doubt” striking a peace deal with Israel “by the end of the year because very little time is left;” on September 10 he reiterated his skepticism in an interview with the Israeli daily Haaretz.

Accordingly he dispelled U.S. President George W. Bush’s pledge to reach such a deal before his term ends and at the same time practically announced that peace talks have now been frozen for at least a year by the government changes in Washington and Tel Aviv. Abbas was reportedly scheduled to hold his last meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, in Jerusalem on September 16, one day before Kadima, Olmert’s ruling party elects his successor, ahead of his scheduled meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush at the White House on September 25. It seems all the partners to the Annapolis process are trying to strike a last minute impossible deal or simply saying good by to each other.

Nonetheless Abbas shows all evidence that he is determined to swim against an overwhelming current to prove that he is the persistent unrelenting Palestinian partner who will never despair in his pursuit of peace, even he would pay the price with his own life, despite all the internal and external odds, nor will he be deterred by the undelivered U.S. promises to loose trust in Washington.

On September 10 he told Haaretz that, “Even today, I’m convinced that I would have signed the Oslo Accords. I risked my life for peace and if I have to pay for it with my life, that’s a negligible price. I don’t regret the Oslo Accords. Twenty years before the agreement I believed in peace with the Israelis, and I still believe in it.”

He is still desperately determined to remain committed to his “strategic option” of a negotiated peace deal with Israel in pursuit of a life-long hope that would make or break his political career as well as a Palestinian leadership team, led by him, that has bet everything on a mirage-like U.S. promises to deliver a Palestinian state on the part of historic Palestine which Israel occupied in 1967, although Bush’s pledges to former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on April 14, 2004 have so far proved much more stronger strategic commitments than the U.S. vague promises to Palestinians, and despite the fact that the overall Israeli policy and every single tactic of that policy indicate a strategy that clashes head-to-head with the minimum Palestinian national aspiration for an independent, viable and contiguous state as the basis for a just and lasting peace.

Not deterred by all indications to the contrary, his determination, it seems, would never loose hope to agree with those, like King Abdullah II of Jordan, who believe that the Annapolis opportunity was the last chance for the Palestinian – Israeli peace process to deliver. He is determined too not to be held responsible for any collapse of the peace talks; therefore he ignores Israeli non-commitment and clings to his own commitments to the letter and soul of the Annapolis understandings.

He is similarly determined not to loose his hope that the United States could still deliver on its promises. “We are determined to continue accelerated diplomatic negotiations concurrently with the change of administration in the United States,” Abbas was quoted as saying in Cernobbio, Italy, on Friday. He appealed to the upcoming U.S. administration not to waste “seven more years” to resume its peace efforts. “The new administration should not wait seven years for us to start negotiations. It should begin immediately as soon as a new president is in the White House.” However, with nothing on the record to prove the U.S. would be forthcoming, a Palestinian semi-consensus is ruling out such a possibility as wishful thinking, and Abbas is similarly swimming against this strong internal current, which has all throughout opposed the Annapolis initiative as a non-starter.

Peace-making seems so absurd now as to defy all logic and belief, at least to the majority of the Palestinian people, according to Palestinian polls, the most recent of which was released on September 7 by the Near East Consulting Company to show that 86% of Palestinians are frustrated, 43% believed that the conflict with Israel will continue and a Palestinian state will not be established, 24% of respondents believed that a Palestinian state will be established within 10-20 years, 18% within 5-10 years 16% within a year to five years.

The optimistic fanfare Abbas and his team raised following the Annapolis conference has now boiled down to publicly voiced bitter disappointment and disillusion; his earlier insistence on time tables and deadlines as preconditions have now been forgone for the sake of not dooming the talking process; his threatening repeated warnings that the continued expansion of the illegal Israeli colonial settlements would spell the end of negotiations have been replaced by lenient appeals to the same effect.

Abbas’ preconditioning a deal with the Israelis on reaching an agreement on all and every issue of the final status issues, a precondition which was recently revived with stress, was met by a cold shower with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s proposal for a partial deal agreement that rules out Jerusalem, ostensibly temporarily until a later stage, but detrimentally excluding the issue of refugees for good, a deal not to be implemented but to be presented to Bush then to the United Nations General Assembly in November, which would bestow on the proposal a UN legitimacy that would in turn legitimize Ariel Sharon’s original draft of an interim, transitional and long-term temporary Palestinian state on (42) percent of the West Bank, demarcated by the more than 700km-long wall Israel is building on the occupied Palestinian territory, termed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the Wall of Expansion and Annexation, by Israelis as the “security barrier” and by everyday media as simply the Apartheid Wall, which the International Court of Justice in the Hague ruled as “illegal” in July 2004.

Abbas, the PLO and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have officially on record rejected both Israeli proposals of the transitional state and the partial agreement. “Jerusalem and the right of return are inalienable Palestinian rights, too,” he confirmed during his recent visit to Cairo. However this official rejection is defying the Israeli-created facts on the ground of more than 200 Jewish settlements and outposts, home to slightly less than half a million settlers, living among two and a half million Palestinians, but exclusively controlling (37) percent and restricting the free movement of Palestinians on (21) percent of the land, all tied inextricably into Israel proper by a massive network of Israeli-only highways and, ultimately, the “Security Barrier,” which all indicate that the Occupation is no longer “a temporary military situation” as defined by international law. These facts, together with the U.S. collusion with the Israeli determination to annex most of them, especially in Jerusalem, to Israel proper, sweep away whatever credibility is left to whatever remains of the peace process.

Bush’s letter to Sharon was an old proof of the U.S. collusion; the latest proof was revealed on September 7 by Tayseer Khaled, a member of the Executive Committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s (PLO), that the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in her last visit to Ramallah, tried to get the PLO’s OK for a statehood with temporary borders and the postponement of negotiating the outstanding final-status issues.

While rejecting out of hand the notion that peace-making would ever have a “last chance,” Abbas however would accept a “last chance” to resolve peacefully the inter-Palestinian conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. If the ongoing Egyptian mediation fails to reconcile the Palestinian rivals, Abbas will “take all steps and measures to restore Gaza before the end of this year,” he said in Egypt. This impatience with Hamas is another manifestation of his determination to use the break in negotiations, brought about by the U.S. and Israeli government changes, to put his Palestinian house in order ahead of any possible resumption of talks thereafter.

Within this context Abbas is battling political foes on two fronts, declaring the Hamas – Gaza front as being his first priority. He is also involved in a power struggle within his own Fatah party on another front. Abbas here is allying himself with a U.S. – backed and Israeli – okayed diverse spectrum of Fatah and non-Fatah politicians who share his strategy and tactics, with the government of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad in the forefront. The battle ground revolves now on the renewal of Abbas’ mandate, which terminates on January 9.

This spectrum is evolving as a “third power” between Fatah and Hamas and is fueling the rivalry between them in the hope of establishing itself as the alternative to both, but has yet to officially take shape as a unified party. Both Abbas and this “third” power are mutually exploiting each other to gain the upper hand both within the ranks of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO, where there is still very strong opposition to the strategy of both. This evolving force is fomenting the power struggle between Abbas and that opposition as much as it is exacerbating his rivalry with Hamas, cornering him in a very sensitive but critical showdown with his own party, Fatah. Abbas’ bitter battle with Hamas is smoke-screening the power struggle within Fatah, which currently evolve around convening both the PLO National Council (parliament-in-exile) and the sixth Congress of Fatah, both overdue.

However Abbas shows all the determination necessary to put his house in order, with his sight unwaveringly focused on his peace prize, an independent, viable and contiguous state, no matter what!

Nicola Nasser is a veteran Arab journalist based in Bir Zeit, West Bank of the Israeli – occupied Palestinian territories.

Bangladesh: Cog in the terror wheel

Global Geopolitics – Global News Blog – Global Analyst Online
Tuesday, September 16, 2008

© Copyright 2008 Susenjit Guha. All rights reserved.

With the New Delhi blasts killing close to 30 innocent people and wounding around 90 more last Saturday, India is getting to be a regular venue for terrorists, who pick selective targets in the capital city and other metropolitan cities in India with impunity.

According to the National Counterterrorism Center in Washington, D.C., the death toll of 3,674 people in India between January 2004 and March 2007 ranks it second only to Iraq in terms of terrorism casualties.

More than ever before, this has become cause for alarm, because unlike earlier strikes on Indian soil where the roots could be traced back directly to operatives in Pakistan, blasts in recent times are the handiwork of homegrown terrorists. In May this year, blasts in the Indian city of Jaipur took 80 lives, and, in July, terrorists killed 55 people in a strike in Ahmedabad.

Indian politicians are not helping the situation. Some raise the specter of fanaticism in the name of Hinduism to meet the terrorist threat head-on, keeping one eye on the exclusive Hindu vote, while others practice appeasement politics, treating fundamentalists the same as secular Indian Muslims, wary of losing the entire Muslim vote.

The Indian Mujahideen, strongly suspected of masterminding earlier strikes and claiming responsibility for the series of blasts in New Delhi in an email to the media, could not have made a move on their own if they had not been influenced by groups across the border in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Such a precarious situation raises several questions: Are adequate efforts being made by countries to address the roots of terrorism? Is the world, which is fixated on Pakistan’s volatile, rugged northwest region where American forces battle suspected Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives, increasingly overlooking other nations that either support terrorism or turn a blind eye to their operations?

It is alleged that Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, has used U.S. aid over the years to wage covert operations in India. Allegations were rife about Pakistan’s role in the recent bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan. The ISI is accused of sending terrorists into Indian Kashmir, who then train locals and indoctrinate them with their ideologies and philosophies, all in a bid to create mayhem in India.

There is no denying the fact that the ISI’s agenda has led to the creation of terrorist sleeper cells within India. In Bangladesh, where anti-Indian sentiments run high in certain circles, the ISI has sought to outsource some of its terrorism training to be used against India. Poverty, believed to be the cause for disillusioned youth to careen towards terrorism – though not always applicable in India – is the most potent reason for recruitment in Bangladesh’s villages.

The Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, a terrorist outfit in Bangladesh set up by Bin Laden’s cohorts in the 1990s, was suspected to be behind blasts in the Indian state of Hyderabad last year. It is also believed that militancy in the name of Islam flourished not only under Khaleda Zia’s government in Bangladesh but also under past military rulers who looked upon radicals for support in the absence of popular public backing.

Bangladesh’s news daily Amader Shomoy, or “Our Times,” wrote that Al Qaeda senior leader Ayman Jawahiri’s visit to Dhaka, as the guest of a local handicraft dealer, was mediated by a Pakistani diplomat, quoting sources in the Dhaka metropolitan police.
The Weekly Blitz also featured a story on how Al Qaeda started operating in Bangladesh with the help of local Islamist leaders like Mufti Shahid, a close aide of Bin Laden.

Selig S. Harrison’s article in the Los Angeles Times, “Get a grip on Dhaka,” published July 2, quotes the U.S. State Department’s report of HUJI’s contact with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. In his article, Harrison mentions how HUJI’s founder, Fazlur Rehman Khalil, a signatory to Bin Laden’s first holy war against the United States, “quietly built up terrorist bases in Bangladesh’s jungles, under the protective aegis of the military regime allied to militants.”

Bangladesh’s border along India’s eastern state of West Bengal is porous, which makes it easy for terrorists to infiltrate and intermingle with the similar ethno-linguistic population on the other side of the border, and later fan out to other parts of India.

Unless Bangladesh is brought into the focus of international attention in the aftermath of the terrorist strikes on the Indian subcontinent, a more realistic approach toward combating the menace of terrorism may elude policymakers not only in India, but in the United States as well.

About the Author:

Susenjit Guha is a writer and journalist based in Kolkata, India. He contributes a weekly commentary and analysis for UPI Asia and has written on Indian and global political issues for such online publications as Online Opinion (Australia) and Foreign Policy in Focus (USA) and M.J Akbar (India).